Issue #549 ![]() November 5, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Indexes Continue Running to the Upside!
DOW Friday closing price - 23539
The indexes continued the dizzying upward climb, having made a new intraweek and weekly closing high each week for the past 8 weeks. In addition, all indexes are showing 7 months in a row of green monthly closes and 11 or the last 12. In the past 24 years there has only been one period of time where such a consistent rally has been seen and that is 22 years ago in 1995 when Bill Clinton was President. Once again, the indexes closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW above 23557, SPX above 2588, and the NASDAQ above 6765).
During the past 24 years, November has been generally a positive month for the index market. Using the DOW as the sample index, in that period of time there have only been 6 red close months and 4 of those came in periods when the indexes were in a downtrend. The other 2 instances of red monthly closes (which came during an uptrend as is being seen now) were insignificantly red inasmuch as they were by 14 points and by 8 points, meaning that history suggests that the index market will likely continue the uptrend in November and close higher than last month's closes (DOW at 22377, SPX at 2575, and NAZ at 6727).
With no resistance above and no chart or fundamental reasons at this time to give the bears any ammunition with which to push down, the bulls seem to have "clear sailing" ahead. In fact, the only reason any trader could even consider that a top to this rally could be made this month is that everything is looking so bullish that the old adage about "when everything is bullish, it is time for the market to turn around" could come into play.
To the upside, there are no resistance levels above. To the downside, and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 23350 and pivotal support at 23251, the SPX shows minor support at 2566 and pivotal support at 2544, and the NASDAQ shows minor support at 6677 and pivotal support at 6517. A break of the first minor support would suggest the indexes are in a pause or sideways action for a couple of weeks and a break of the second and pivotal support would suggest a correction of some consequence has started. Any break below last month's lows (DOW at 22416, SPX at 2520 and NAZ at 6484) would be a clear sign that a top to this rally has been found.
There are no economic or earnings reports scheduled for this week that could be considered in any way catalytic. The only event on the immediate horizon that could bring in some selling interest is the Tax Reform bill that will start to be discussed this week. Evidently, anything that would be seen as an obstacle to its passing, especially an insurmountable obstacle, would have a negative effect on the index market. The other potentially negative event is that oil broke out this past week and is likely to rally up to the $60 level over the next few weeks. At this time, oil rallying has been a positive for the index market and based on that it is more likely to give the bull's additional ammunition. Nonetheless, past history has not always been a positive to the market as it can bring inflation.
At this time and based on the action seen this past week and especially on Thursday and Friday, probabilities strongly favor the bulls.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Once again there are no mentions this week. The index market continues to go higher but it is keyed mostly on a few stocks that are getting the buying interest and not based on the overall market that has more stocks heading lower than higher. As such, trading the direction of the indexes does not truly represent the overall market. Simply stated, purchases need to be made in overbought stocks that offer high risk and low probability ratings and sales of those stocks does not offer any probability of success as long as the runaway freight train scenario continues. On the other hand, purchases of oversold stocks has not been working as there seems to be little interest in purchasing those at this time. Simply stated, normal trading patterns are not working right now.
Nonetheless, my recommendation is to be visiting the message board daily because when the runaway freight train stops, there will be trades to be done that will offer strong profits on a short-term basis. I will be following the market closely and letting you know when I see something happen.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017, as of 10/1 Profit of $1321 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for October per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
GS (short) $777 AMZN (short) $80 (per 50 shares) AMZN (short) $808 (per 50 shares) Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for October, per 100 shares and after commissions $1665 Closed out losing trades for October per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
MNK (long) $72
AMZN (short) $6 (per 50 shares) AMZN (short) $117 (per 50 shares) Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. ADSK (short) $793 Total Loss for October, per 100 shares, including commissions $988 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 10/31
BHTG (long) $33
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
ARNA (long) $102 ARNA(long) $253 MNK (long) $121 FCEL (long) $15 Total $571 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 10/31
AMZN (short) $5866 (per 50 shares)
CAT (short) $497 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
SLCA (long) $112 Total $9231 Status of trades for month of October per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Loss of $7983
Status of account/portfolio for 2017, as of 10/31Loss of $6662 using 100 shares traded per mention.
AMZN extended its rally this past week, having gone above the previous week's high and closing in the green. Nonetheless, the bulls had to generate a $24 (2.2%) late afternoon rally on Friday to get the green close as the stock had been trading $12 below last week's close at 1100.95 for the first 4 hours of the day. The stock closed near the highs of the day and further upside above last week's high at 1122.79 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, if the bulls fail to get above last week's high and then go below Thursday low at 1086.87, a drop down to the previous all-time high daily close at 1052.80 would likely be seen. The selling interest seen on Thursday and Friday does suggest that at these prices it will be difficult for the bulls to maintain the push for further upside. Probabilities favor the bulls but very slightly.
ARNA made another new 25-month intraweek and weekly closing high on Friday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 28.77 will be seen this week. The stock has now generated 9 green weekly closes out of the last 10 weeks and is presently overbought using the Slow Stochastic oscillator. The stock is nearing the 200-week MA, currently at 31.45, that has not been broken to the upside since January 2015 (34 months) and that on a weekly closing basis will be difficult to break the first time around. Nonetheless, in January 2015, the stock did break the line for 1 week by $10 on an intraweek basis and by $1.80 on a weekly closing basis, suggesting the same thing could be seen now but likely on a smaller scale. On an intraweek basis, there is decent resistance between 34.70 and 34.80 and on a weekly closing basis, there is resistance at 30.70 and stronger between 33.90 and 34.20 that are highly unlikely to be broken at this time. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 24.60 and minor at 28.00. As such, the chart suggests the stock will rally up to one of the levels mentioned above and then get into a trading range between $24 and $34 for the next 3-6 months thereafter. As such, taking profits short-term should be considered on any rally up to the $34 level. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. BHTG generated a red weekly close but the bears were unable to close below the previous low weekly close at 5.65, meaning that the bulls maintain the edge as the stock is in a mid-term uptrend. Last week's high and low at 6.00 and at 5.29 could be at risk of being broken since the stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, but the probabilities favor the bulls. If the 6.00 level is broken this week, last week's low at 5.29 will be seen as a second spike low retest of the 4.75 low seen in August and that should give the bulls some new ammunition. To the upside, minor to decent as well as short-term pivotal resistance is found at 6.30. To the downside, minor to decent as well as pivotal support is found at 5.01. Probabilities favor the bulls. CAT generated an uneventful inside week with a red weekly close that means the bulls were unable to generate any further upside in spite of closing near the highs of the week the previous week. The stock did close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 137.81 will be seen this week. By the same token, if that occurs but the all-time high at 140.43 seen 2 weeks ago is not broken, it could mean a successful retest of the all-time high may have been made and a correction is to follow. Pivotal support is found at 134.79 that if broken would suggest the gap down at 132.34 would be targeted. The chart suggests that this coming week will be slightly biased to the upside but if the bulls are unable to get above 137.81, the bears will gain a short-term edge. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CLF generated another red close week (3rd in a row and 7 out of the last 9) but the bulls were able to rally the stock enough to close in the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for a rally above last week's high at 6.41 or below last week's low at 5.69 depending on the fundamental outlook for the company. The stock is still in a mid-term uptrend and the close was exactly at the 100-week MA, which is a line that has been pivotal and strongly indicative of trend for the past 10 years, suggesting that the inability of the bears to close below the line is a positive for the bulls. In addition, the stock got to within 13 points of a pivotal intraweek support at 5.56, meaning that what the stock does this week (above last week's high of below last week's low) will likely be indicative of trend for the next 1-3 months. A break above last week's high at 6.41 suggests a rally up to the 7.00 level will be seen. If that occurs, the worst of the recent downtrend will likely be over. A drop below 5.56 would be a strong and new sell signal. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG reported disappointing earnings and the stock dropped 25% in value on Friday. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at .80 is expected to be seen this week. An additionally possible negative is that the stock closed below the 5-year 2-point uptrend line that connected at 1.04, opening the door for the uptrend to be over if and when the stock continues lower and/or does not recover over the next week or two. Minor intraweek support is found at .79 and pivotal at .68 and minor resistance is now found at 1.01. Over the past 9 years, previous spike lows as was seen this past week have not generally resulted in follow through, meaning that if there is no follow through this week, the downside objective of this downtrend (which had been .94 cents) will have been achieved. Probabilities favor the bears but it is an important week. FCEL continued to trade sideways as this was the 4th week in a row of weekly closes between 2.15 and 2.21. Nonetheless and as I stated last week, the sideways trading is actually bullish given that the stock made a new 52-week high 5 weeks ago and the bulls have not given back any of their gains. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 2.31 than below last week's low at 2.10. Intraweek resistance is found at 2.26, at 2.37 and pivotal at 2.49. Any break below 2.01 would now be seen as a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls. GS made a new 8-month intraweek high by 67 points (247.74 vs 247.07) but the bulls were unable to confirm the breakout on Friday when the stock closed below the most recent high weekly close at 244.65 and still clearly below the 6-month high weekly close at 246.02. The inability of the bulls to "make a statement" and confirm the intraweek breakout, especially with the indexes continuing to go higher, strongly suggests that on a mid-to-long-term basis the stock is presently fully valued. Nonetheless and for this week, the bulls still have a small edge given than the stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 247.74 than below last week's low at 239.53. It is interesting to note though, that between December 8th and January 17th (26 trading days) the stock traded sideways between 235.37 and 245.84 and then broke out with a high at 247.77 and then proceeded to "fall out of bed" with a drop down to 227.05 within 3 weeks. With the stock making a new 8-month high on Friday but not confirming the breakout and Friday being the 24th day in a row of sideways trading, it would not be surprising to see the same identical thing happen to the stock this week, which is "falling out of bed". Evidently, the 247.74 high seen on Thursday matches up well with the 247.77 high seen on January 13th, meaning that if the same thing is to happen this time that it will start happening this week. Minor to perhaps decent and short-term pivotal support is found at 239.53 and stronger support is found at 235.19 that if broken would suggest a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 230.75. Probabilities should favor the bulls this week but based on the history given above, they probably favor the bears. MNK had a bit of a wild week given that a small short-term buy signal was given on Wednesday but then the purchase/merger of OCR was announced on Thursday and the buy signal got negated. Nonetheless, the end result for the week was a positive reversal week, having made a new all-time low that was followed up by a green weekly close on Friday. The positive reversal is in question since the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range because of the event that occurred on Thursday, meaning that the chart suggests that a lower low below last week's low at 30.08 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the acquisition of OCR is not necessarily a negative and as such there is a good possibility that no further downside will be seen. Intraweek resistance is now found at 32.58 and at 32.90 that if broken would suggest that a rally up to the gap area between 36.20 and 37.15 could occur. The $30 demilitarized zone (29.70-30.30) is considered psychological support. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. SLCA generated a spike up this past week as well as a 2nd green weekly close and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 31.91 will be seen this week. Oil did generate an important breakout on Friday that suggests it will go up an additional $5-$7 in value, meaning that the stock is also likely to continue higher as well. Resistance is found at 31.91, at 32.55 and at 33.72 but given that oil is likely to continue strongly higher, the probabilities now favor all of those resistance levels getting broken and the traders targeting the 200-week MA, currently at 36.00. Minor but likely short-term indicative support is found at 29.71 and pivotal at 27.42. Based on what oil is likely to do, the stock should show green all week and get up and likely break immediately (Monday or Tuesday) the resistance at 31.91. If that occurs, the other resistance levels should be targeted and broken over the next week or two and the upside target of the mention at $36-$37 reached within 3-4 weeks. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .184 (new price 2.21). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .90. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 28.56. 4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.09. 5) GS - Shorted at 242.95. Stop loss now at 247.87. Stock closed on Friday at 244.40. 6) SLCA - Averaged long at 25.375 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 30.44. 7) CAT - Shorted at 130.83. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 136.63. 8) GS - Shorted at 245.77. Liquidated at 246.68. Loss on the trade of $91 per 100 shares plus commissions. 9) MNK - Purchased at 30.46. Averaged long at 39.665 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 30.71. 10) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. Stop loss at 4.65. Stock closed on Friday at 5.65. 11) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss now at 25.05. Stock closed on Friday at 28.56.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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