Issue #548 ![]() October 29, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Indexes seemingly in an Exhaustion Phase with Further Upside Expected!
DOW Friday closing price - 23434
The indexes continued the dizzying upward climb, having made a new intraweek and weekly closing high each week for the past 7 weeks. Once again, the indexes closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW above 23449, SPX above 2582, and the NASDAQ above 6708).
The market continues to receive positive earnings and economic reports each week that give the bulls seemingly unending ammunition to take the indexes higher. As such, the indexes are now likely in an exhaustion run where profits flow in at a fast pace but will end abruptly when no further upside is made.
The bears are presently in hiding as they have had no success in generating any selling interest for more than a day and sometime only intraday. Nonetheless, at the end of this coming week the earnings news cycle will end for the next 12 weeks and the economic news cycle of possibly catalytic reports will end for the next 4 weeks, suggesting that the bulls will not get any "last minute reprieve" to stop a correction from continuing once it has started.
Already for the past 2 weeks, the indexes have seen a 1-day selling spree each week that was unexpected and that suggested that a top had been found, only to be negated the next day or two thereafter by positive news that gave the bulls renewed reasons for further upside. Nonetheless, on Thursday, the VIX gave a buy signal for the first time in 6 weeks and the DOW broke the 200 10-minute MA for the first time in 18 trading days, meaning that without good news the indexes would now likely be in a much expected and overdue correction. As such, already there are signs that the bulls have their fingers on the trigger to take profits and that without further positive news support, a top or at least a correction of some consequence is now on the horizon.
With no resistance above, either chart-wise or psychological, the traders will be mainly paying attention to support levels below for clues as to when a correction may start, especially after the last of the reports this week come out. To the downside and on a daily closing basis, the DOW shows support at 23329, the SPX at 2557, and the NASDAQ at 6556. Nonetheless, the economic reports are already expected to be high (Consumer Confidence expected at 122, ISM index at 58.8, Jobs report at 285k) and AAPL is expected to come in at the general area that it has been at all year (expected at $1.87 and the last 2 earnings have come in at $2.10 and $1.67 respectively), suggesting that the traders may not wait for the reports to come out to start taking profits as higher numbers than expected numbers are unlikely. As such, the traders may start reacting off of the more sensitive intraday charts where support is found in all indexes at Friday's low (DOW at 23353, SPX at 2565 and NAZ at 6625). Those lows do represent a break in the 200 10-minute MA's, meaning that any break of those support levels this week would be seen as a negative.
The bulls are committed to taking the indexes higher in an exhaustion type of action as anything less than that would likely bring in profit taking. The probabilities favor the bulls this week but every week from here on in is likely to be pivotal.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no mentions this week. Purchases offer either too much risk and low reward or not enough probability rating and Sales have very low probability ratings at this time due to the "runaway freight train" scenario that is presently in place. In addition, the index market is seemingly in an exhaustion phase where profits for the bulls will be strong but new purchases will be extremely risky because when it stops, the downturn will be strong and swift. Other than shorting without a stop loss (risk/reward ratio not able to be quantified or measured), there are few trades that offer enough good reasons to put into effect. This will end soon, but waiting seems to be the best option right now.
Nonetheless, my recommendation is to be visiting the message board daily because when the runaway freight train stops, there will be trades to be done that will offer strong profits on a short-term basis. I will be following the market closely and letting you know when I see something happen.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AMZN received a much better than expected earnings report and made a new all-time intraweek and weekly high on Friday. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1105.58 is expected to be seen. The stock gapped up at the previous all-time weekly closing high at 1052.80 that will now become support. Probabilities favor the bulls. ARNA made another new 25-month weekly closing high on Friday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 27.96 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the buying interest was tempered a bit since the previous week's high at 28.28 was not broken (was an inside week), likely meaning that selling interest is being seen as the stock gets close to the $30 psychological resistance and the 200-week MA, currently at 31.60. By the same token, nothing negative occurred, meaning that the uptrend continues. On an intraweek basis, there is very minor resistance at 29.85 but on a weekly closing basis, the resistance is minor to perhaps decent between 28.00 and 29.30. The resistance in that area is mostly old and somewhat weak as they go back 8 years and they are mostly from previous low weekly closes. The objective of this rally is likely the 200-week MA, currently at 31.60. Nonetheless, that objective is on a weekly closing basis as there is no resistance above the $30 demilitarized zone until 34.70 is reached. It is unlikely that the MA line will be broken the first time it is seen, meaning that taking profits around the 34.70 level should be considered if seen. If the stock can establish itself this week above the 27.00 level, that level will then become support. Presently, very minor support is found at 26.68 and minor to perhaps decent at 26.40. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. BHTG generated an outside week (above the previous week's high and below the previous week's low) but no levels of support or resistance were broken, meaning it was uneventful. Support should be found at 5.50. Pivotal resistance is now found at 6.30 that if broken is likely to regenerate interest in resuming the uptrend. Nonetheless, for this coming week more of the same as seen the last 7 trading days (which is sideways trading) is likely to occur with 5.50 to 6.30 as the most likely trading range to occur. CAT reported earnings and they were much better than expected and a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high was made. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 140.44 is expected to be seen this week. On a possible negative note, the stock made the all-time high on Tuesday and spent the remaining 3 days trading below that high, meaning that there seems to be no strong desire or ability to take the stock higher. Wednesday's low at 134.79 is now considered to be short-term pivotal support that if broken would suggest that the gap down at 132.34 would be closed. The 2 previous earnings reports were also better than expected and also generated a gap. In the previous report the gap was not closed but the stock traded sideways for 4 weeks without new highs made and the one previous to that one, the stock traded down from the high made for the ensuing 4 weeks and the gap was closed. As such, the recent history of the stock suggests that there is a higher likelihood of the stock moving sideways to down over the next 4 weeks than the uptrend continuing. CLF reported earnings this week and evidently it disappointed as the stock made a new 4-month low. Nonetheless, the bears were unable to break the important 6.00 level of support as the stock got down to 6.04 and bounced to close near the highs of the day on Friday, suggesting that buying interest was found at that level. On another possible positive note, the stock got down to the 50-week MA, currently at 6.05, and that is a line that has been decent support since it first got broken to the upside in June 2016, having been tested successfully twice during that period of time. The stock gapped down on Friday between 6.42 and 6.36 and if the gap is closed on Monday (likely), it will take away some of the ammunition that the bears received with the earnings report. Pivotal resistance is now found between 6.95 and last week's high at 7.01. A break of that level will suggest that the bulls will once again attempt to break above the 200-week MA, currently at 8.10, that has been tested successfully on 2 prior occasions over the past 9 months. A third retest could be the "charm". Pivotal support is found at 5.63 that if broken would be a decent negative sign. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. ENG generated a green weekly close, making last week's close at 1.16 into a successful retest of the 15-month low weekly close at 1.12. The 1.10 to 1.16 level has been decent to perhaps even strong weekly close support since February 2016 with multiple (more than 8) weekly closes in that area. The stage is now set chart-wise for the bulls to start generating a rally of consequence, likely after the November 9th earnings report. The 1.29-1.31 area of weekly close resistance remains decent and the 1.40 area of weekly close resistance is pivotal (1.46 on an intraweek basis). Probabilities favor sideways trading with a slight upward bias for the next 2 weeks until the earnings report comes out. FCEL has traded sideways in a narrow trading range since the breakout occurred 4 weeks ago after the upgrade was given. The stock has generated 3 weekly closes in a row at 2.15, 2.17 and once again 2.17 this past Friday. Nonetheless, the sideways trading is actually bullish given that the stock made a new 52-week high 4 weeks ago and the bulls have not given back any of their gains. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and on the highs of the day on Friday and given that the stock now shows a successful retest of the 2.00 level of support with a low at 2.01 on October 10th and now 2 successful retests of that low with lows at 2.03 and last week at 2.04. Intraweek resistance is found at 2.26, at 2.37 and pivotal at 2.49. Any break below 2.01 would now be seen as a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls. GS generated a negative reversal week after a positive reversal week occurred the week before, meaning that the bulls are not in control even though the bulls are in full control of the index market. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 239.67. If the stock does go below last week's low, last week's high at 246.50 will become a successful retest of the recent high at 247.07 and that will likely mean that the chart is fulfilled to the upside and that the bears will get the edge for the next few weeks. Intraweek resistance is found at 244.89, at 246.50 and at 247.07. Minor support at 236.84 and decent as well as pivotal at 235.19. Probabilities favor a mild rally to 244.89 and then renewed selling interest. Probabilities favor the bears. MNK generated another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing low on Friday and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 30.15 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, some minor buying interest was seen as the stock got down to 30.33 on Tuesday, bounced up to 31.93 on Wednesday, made the new low at 30.15 on Friday but closed near the high of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside. The $30 level is expected to offer psychological support, considering that the stock is strongly oversold, there are still 4 rating companies with upside objectives between $54 and $60 and the stock is showing 2 previous bounces of at least $6 over the past 4 months since this most recent downtrend began. The probabilities favor a positive reversal week and a green close next Friday. Support should be found in the $30 demilitarized zone (20.70-30.30). Minor but short term pivotal resistance is found at 31.93 that if broken would suggest a rally up to the mid $35's would be seen. SLCA generated a green weekly close on Friday, the first after 4 red weekly closes in a row. The green weekly close will now be seen as a successful retest of the 8-month weekly closing low at 25.44 and be suggestive that the recent short-term uptrend will resume with the 200-week MA, currently at 35.90, as the objective to be reached sometime over the next 7-10 weeks. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 29.17 is expected to be seen this week. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at 29.29 and then nothing until minor again at 30.27. The next resistance of any consequence is at 32.55 and then decent at the 4-month high at 33.72. Minor to perhaps decent and pivotal support is found at 27.42. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .18 (new price 2.17). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.25. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 27.83. 4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.02. 5) GS - Shorted at 242.95. Stop loss presently at 247.35. Stock closed on Friday at 241.71. 6) SLCA - Averaged long at 25.375 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 28.87. 7) CAT - Shorted at 130.83. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 137.81. 8) AMZN - Shorted at 987.95. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1100.95. 9) AMZN - Shorted at 984.10. Covered shorts at 967.65. Profit on the trade of $822.50 per 50 shares minus commissions. 10) MNK - Purchased at 30.46. Averaged long at 39.665 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 30.71. 11) AMZN - Shorted at 1083.30. Covered shorts at 1085.37. Loss on the trade of $103.50 per 50 shares plus commissions. 12) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. Stop loss at 4.65. Stock closed on Friday at 5.92. 13) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss now at 25.05. Stock closed on Friday at 27.83.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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