Issue #561 ![]() March 18, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Indexes Falter. Pause in Rally Occurring?
DOW Friday closing price - 24946
The indexes all generated red weekly closes this past week, suggesting that the recent run to the upside has stalled. The NASDAQ, which has been the leader to the upside as of late and was able to make a new all-time high the last 2 weeks, generated a negative reversal week as well as gave a failure signal, having made a new all-time high for the 2nd week in a row but then closing in the red and "below" the previous high weekly close at 7505. All indexes closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week (DOW below 24668, SPX below 2741 and NAZ below 7463).
The negative reversal in the NASDAQ and the red weekly closes in all indexes does suggest that the bulls need additional positive fundamental information to re-generate the recent rally and this coming week that is not likely to occur. On Wednesday, the Fed will likely announce a new interest rate hike but given that it is already anticipated to happen is not likely to have much of an effect on the market. The only other economic report of consequence this week is Durable Goods on Friday but that report is not considered catalytic, meaning that it is not likely to generate movement of consequence in any direction.
Though the action this week was negative, it was not negative enough to give the bears a lot of new ammunition other than perhaps to fulfill some downside chart objectives. For example, the bears in the NASDAQ were unable to close the gap down at 7435 in spite of the index "getting into" the gap on Thursday (got down to 7463) and then generating an inside day on Friday. Closure of the gap remains the main objective for this week. By the same token, the DOW closed its gap on Tuesday and the SPX closed its gap on Thursday and closure of those gaps did not bring in any new buying or selling interest, suggesting that the gap in the NAZ is an objective but not a pivotal point.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the NASDAQ will now show minor but short-term pivotal resistance at 7505 and decent at 7637. On a daily closing basis, resistance is found at 7505 and at 7588. The SPX will now show minor to perhaps decent resistance at 2789 and minor to decent at 2801. The DOW shows minor to perhaps decent support at 24668, minor to decent as well as mid-term pivotal support at 24217.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the NASDAQ shows minor support at 7463 and again at 7373 and then minor to perhaps decent at 7194. The SPX show minor support at 2741 and then minor to perhaps decent at 2700. The DOW will show minor support at the breakaway gap at 7469 and then minor support at 7194 and decent as well as pivotal at 7084.
Last week, the indexes all fell somewhat in unison as a 2% fall from the highs was seen across the board. The Tech edge was not evident last week and that is likely to continue this week but the charts do suggest that that the traders might unwind some of their DOW/NAZ spreads. Downside objective for the DOW is 24700, for the SPX it is 2715 and for the NAZ it is 7373. These objectives suggest that the indexes will fall between 1.2% and 1.5%.
It is highly likely that this coming week will be technical in nature with backing and filling of the chart being evident. If there are any surprises it will likely happen on Wednesday with the Fed rate announcement. Otherwise, movement above or below the expected trading ranges would likely only happen if there is some unexpected news.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The outlook for the index market for this week suggests a slight bearish bias. As such, I looked at stocks that have a slight bearish bias to the downside as well and that could offer a fast profit with small risk. By the same token, it is not a week to be aggressive, meaning that it makes more sense to nibble this week than to go "whole hog".
I found 1 stock that offers those conditions perfectly.
SALES
TXN Friday Closing Price - 109.89
TXN made a new all-time high at 120.75 in January and then proceeded to drop 19.7% in value when the indexes generated their correction. Since then, the stock has been on a 6-week rally with every week showing higher lows and higher highs than the week before, all likely with the intent to retest the all-time high, much like the DOW and the SPX have been doing.
TXN generated a negative reversal week last week, having made a new 8-week high but then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 109.17 will be seen this week. With every week the lows being higher than the previous week, it means that no retest of the February low at 96.99 has yet occurred, suggesting that the reversal is likely the start of such a retest.
One big additional short-term negative to the TXN chart is that the stock gapped down between 118.90 and 114.00 on January 24th and the gap has now been tested successfully on 2 occasions with the first retest coming on January 26th with a rally back up to 114.00 and the second retest last Tuesday at 113.55. As such, the stock now has a high probability of heading lower even if the indexes do not.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, TXN shows minor to decent resistance at 113.55 and decent at 114.00.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, TXN shows minor support between 105.99 and 106.88, minor to decent at 104.66 and then nothing until decent as well as longer term pivotal at 96.99. On a daily closing basis though, the stock shows minor but repeated support at the $110 demilitarized zone (109.70-110.30), having closed at that level 8 times over the past 9 weeks, either as a high or low daily close.
TXN broke below the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 110.80, on Wednesday and remained below the line the rest of the week. As such and if the slightly bearish bias for the week is correct, that line will not be broken to the upside this week, meaning that a sensitive mental stop loss will be used on the trade, making the probability rating lower but offering a viable risk/reward ratio.
Sales of TXN between 109.70 and 110.30, using a mental stop loss at 111.01, and having a downside objective of at least 104.66 will offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. If a hard stop at 113.65 is used, the probability number will increase but the risk/reward ratio will only be 2-1.
My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest) if the sensitive stop loss is used and a 3.5 if the stronger stop loss is used.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA reported earnings and they beat expectations but the stock dropped 28.5% in value. There has yet been no confirmed explanation for the strong selloff, though there are "rumors" that a large institutional or hedge fund holder decided to get out of their large amount of shares with a floor to sell all the way down to $30. The other possible reason for "part of the selling" is that a large amount of stop loss orders were likely triggered once the decent and established intraweek support at 32.60-33.00 was broken. By the same token, the stock was already down 20% in value when that happened and that initial loss still has no explanation to it. From a chart perspective, the stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 30.25 is expected to be seen this week. Minor support is found at 29.52/29.53 and then nothing until the 27.00-29.00 area where decent support is found. Nonetheless, that support is old from 2009-2010. The 200-day MA is currently at 27.85 and the 200-week MA is currently at 28.50, suggesting those lines could be (perhaps even likely be) objectives to be reached this week. The 200-week MA, currently at 28.50, is a line that was broken to the upside in December for the first time in 4 years and now is likely to be tested (due to the selloff seen last week) as a retest of an important breakout. The fundamental picture remains positive. To the upside, there is very minor intraweek resistance at 35.08 and then nothing until minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 38.98. Nonetheless, on a daily and weekly closing basis, resistance is now minor to decent at 33.00. The 100-day MA is currently at 34.10 and it is not likely at this time (and before the support below is tested) that the bulls will be able to get above that line. Probabilities favor the bears this week. BHTG did not follow through to the downside after the previous week's close near the lows of the week to generate an inside week with a green weekly close. The lack of follow through and green weekly close have now made the previous weeks low at 3.90 into a double bottom that will be confirmed this week if the stock goes above last week's high at 4.30. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.02 will be seen this week. If that occurs but no new lows below 3.90/3.92 are made, it will likely end up become the required/needed retest of the double bottom. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at 4.65. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but the week is likely to be non-indicative. CCJ generated a short-term buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday above the most recent high weekly close at 9.23. The stock closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.41 will be seen this week. Minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance is found at 9.52 and then nothing until minor resistance is found at 9.98. The big key this week is 9.52 on a daily closing basis as that is where the 200-day MA is currently at. The MA line has been broken twice to the upside over the past 4 months and if broken again would suggest that this time would be the charm, especially since the chart is now fulfilled to the downside as all the needed/required retests of the lows are done. Simply stated, the bulls will take control if they are able to close above 9.52 and get above 9.98. Probabilities favor the bulls. CLF generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.65 will be seen this week. More importantly, if the bulls are able to get above 7.65, last week's low at 7.11 will become a successful retest of the recent low at 7.02, which in turn has now been confirmed as a successful retest of the important and indicative 200-week MA. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 7.73 and a bit stronger at 8.00. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 8.17 and longer term pivotal resistance is found at 9.17. Intraweek support is found at 7.02 and long-term pivotal at 6.30. The stock has now successfully tested the 200-week MA after having broken it twice in the last 5 years but failing to hold above it, suggesting the stock is now ready to start making some inroads to the upside. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG made a new 16-week high and technically generated a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed 1 point above the previous high weekly close for the past 5 months at .90 cent. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .99 will be seen this week. The company was supposed to report earnings on March 8th and then postponed to March 15th but no earnings report have yet to come out or a new date announced. By the same token, the stock gapped up on Thursday (the day the earnings report was due out) and that suggests that some news was given or leaked. The action seen last week is suggestive that the worst is over and that a short-covering rally might now ensue. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 1.00. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 1.10 but daily close resistance is found at 1.05, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. The gap below between .84 and .86 will remain a magnet until either another gap occurs or the stock closes above the MA for at least 2 days in a row. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. FCEL made a new 8-week intraweek high and closed slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 1.88 than below last week's low at 1.69. Ever since the low seen of February 6th at 1.45 mas made, the stock has been on a slight uptrend with 1 higher high and 2 higher lows, suggesting that the uptrend will likely continue this week. Minor to perhaps decent daily close resistance is found at 1.90 and decent on both the daily and weekly closing charts at 2.02. A close above 2.02 next Friday would be considered a strong bullish statement. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above 1.88 until the 2.00 level is reached. Intraweek support is now found at 1.65 and pivotal at 1.60. Probabilities favor the bulls. IBM confirmed the previous week's close above the 200-week MA, currently at 158.80 with a second green close on Friday above that level. The stock closed slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 162.11 than below last week's low at 157.74. Nonetheless, the stock did find some selling interest above 162.00, having reached that level on Tuesday and again on Friday and backing off of that level indicatively. There is decent intraweek resistance at 162.48 and it seems evident that the sellers are showing up on rallies above 162.00, suggesting that even if the stock gets above last week's high at 162.11 that further upside is likely limited, at least for this coming week. Short-term pivotal support is found at 157.74 that if broken would suggest a drop down to at least 156.00 would be seen. Even though the stock is presently above the 200-week MA, that line has been broken to the upside twice over the past 14 months and on both occasions a failure signal was given within a few weeks after the break, meaning that the confirmed break above the line is not yet all that indicative. Evidently the 162.48 level is pivotal resistance, meaning that a stop loss should be placed at 162.58. If such a failure occurs, the downside target will likely be 147.79. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls this week. MNK remained locked in a small trading range between 16.02 and 16.81, given that for the past 6 weeks every weekly close has been in that area. The stock on Thursday closed below 16.00 (closed at 15.77) and for the morning session on Friday was also trading below 16.00 but buying came in after midday and the bulls were able to maintain the weekly close from making a new all-time low, suggesting that the bears are and will have trouble taking the stock lower. On a possible positive note, the stock on Friday broke above the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 16.07, which it had traded below that line for the previous 7 trading days, suggesting that the bulls may have control of the stock this week. Decent intraweek support is found between 15.27 and 15.41 and short-term pivotal resistance is found at 17.91. Nonetheless, a rally above Friday's high at 16.34 will likely trigger some new buying interest. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. PTC generated an inside week but a red weekly close, suggesting that some selling interest is being seen at this new all-time high level. The stock closed slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 81.48 than below last week's low at 78.59. Nonetheless, even if that happens, the all-time intraweek high is at 81.72, meaning that a rally above last week's high but not making a new all-time high would be seen as a retest of the high. By the same token, 8 weeks ago after the stock made the previous all-time high, the stock also closed near the highs of the week but not above the previous week's all-time high and then proceeded to drop down 12.6% over the subsequent 2 weeks. Such a scenario is possible under the present chart action. Key levels to watch this week are the recent high at 81.72 and last week's low at 78.58. A break of either level will likely generate further movement of consequence. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. RENN has traded in a narrow sideways trading range between 9.75 and 8.80 for the past 4 weeks. The stock closed on the lows of the week on Friday, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.94 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, this 8.85-9.20 area of weekly close support has proven to be decent support for the past 19 months, given that there have been over 10 weekly closes seen in that area during that period of time. The stock reports earnings on March 30th and it is likely that the trading range mentioned above will remain inviolate until that report comes out. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 8.80 and pivotal intraweek support is found at 9.75. Probabilities favor the stock trading again in the trading range this week. TOL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 2-week high and then closing in the red. Nonetheless, the stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that the action was mostly non-indicative. By the same token and using the daily chart, the stock now shows 2 successful retests of the 200-day MA, currently at 43.47, having gotten down to 43.59 on Thursday and rallying above Thursday's high and closing in the green on Friday. The move down to 43.59 is now likely to be the required/needed retest of the 6-month low at 42.88 which if it is, will bring in new buying interest. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 45.72 and then nothing until 46.63. Possible short-term upside objective is the 48.00 to 48.37 area. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .15 (new price 1.80). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .91. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.15 (new price (31.51). 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.51. 5) RENN - Purchased at 11.08. No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 9.01. 6) CCJ - Averaged long at 9.585 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.39. 7) MNK - Averaged long at 22.186 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.09. 9) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.10. 10) ARNA - Liquidated at 32.90. Averaged long at 29.906. Profit on the trade of $898 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions. 11) IBM - Liquidated at 159.75. Averaged short at 158.26. Loss on the trade of $298 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 12) GCI - Purchased at 9.92. Averaged long at 10.756. Liquidated at 9.61. Loss on the trade of $344 per 100 shares (3 mentions) plus commisions. 13) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss now at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.80. 14) TOL - Purchased at 43.54. Stop loss at 42.78. Stock closed on Friday at 44.79. 15) ARNA - Purchased at 37.60. Liquidated at 36.91. Loss on the trade of $69 per 100 shares plus commissions. 16) IBM - Shorted at 161.03. Stop loss at 162.58. Stock closed on Friday at 160.26. 17) PTC - Shorted at 80.19. Stop loss is at 81.82. Stock closed on Friday at 80.34. 18) - Purchased at 34.11. Liquidated at 32.90. Loss on the trade of $121 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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