Issue #558 ![]() February 21, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bargain Basement Buying Seen. Recovery Rally Occurring.
DOW Friday closing price - 25219
The indexes recovered approximately 4-5% of the losses experienced over the past 2 weeks and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW above 25432, SPX above 2754, and NASDAQ above 7303). The recovery rally seen this past week was all one way (up) given that the indexes generated higher lows and higher highs each and every day of last week, meaning that no retest of the 10-12% correction lows seen on Friday 2/9 has yet occurred, suggesting from a chart point of view that this rally is likely to fail at some point (no new all-time highs made on this run).
More importantly, the rally was more about bargain hunting than it was about fundamentals as the inflation reports this past week showed that inflation is climbing and that scenario is likely to bring about more (rather than less) interest hikes this year.
The bulls were successful though in breaking a few of the resistance levels that were built on the way down, such as the first bounce-off-of-the-first-correction-lows highs that were seen on February 7th (DOW at 24893, SPX at 2727 and NASDAQ at 7170), suggesting that further upside will be seen at the beginning of the week. The NASDAQ and the Tech industry were the leaders this past week and the bulls did break all of the resistance levels close by, suggesting that index will continue to lead the way this week without close by obstacles above but the DOW and the SPX did not get above the 200 60-minute MA's, meaning that those indexes will give clues early in the week as to how much further upside is likely to be seen this week.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows no resistance until minor at 26153 and a bit stronger at 26338 and then at the all-time high at 26616. Nonetheless, the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 25550 might prove to be a difficult obstacle to overcome. The SPX shows minor resistance at 2807 and a bit stronger at 2839 and then at the all-time high at 2872. Nonetheless, the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 2761 might prove to be a difficult obstacle to overcome. The NASDAQ shows minor resistance at 7330, a bit stronger at 7453 and then at the all-time high at 7505.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows very minor support at 24697 and then nothing until 23778-23921. The SPX shows very minor at 2673 and then nothing until 2593 to 2605. The NASDAQ shows very minor support at 7111, psychological support at 7000, minor again at 6903 and then nothing until 6734. On an intraday basis though, the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 7235, may prove to be indicative if the bears can generate a failure to follow through signal.
Based on the strong recovery run seen last week and the ability of the bulls in the NASDAQ to get above the 200 60-minute MA, the probabilities favor further upside this week with at least the 7300 level as the minimum objective and the 7400 level as the maximum objective. It is highly unlikely that the bulls will be successful in accomplishing more than a rally up to 7402, given the fundamental picture at this time.
The bulls though, are totally committed to generating follow through to the upside given the total lack of support close by below, meaning that any weakness seen will be a sign for the bulls to take profit on the positions they bought last week. Simply stated, once the momentum of the rally fades, selling interest will likely come back in a strong manner since the recent and precedent setting lows have not yet been retested successfully.
I do believe that one of the key chart levels in the NASDAQ for this week will be 7111. There is very minor support there but it is additionally strengthened by Thursday's low at 7130, suggesting that if both of those levels get broken that the back of this bargain-basement buying rally will be broken.
Probabilities though, favor the bulls and a rally in the NASDAQ up to at least the 7300 level.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The indexes are in a corrective phase, both chart-wise and fundamentally, meaning that this rally back up toward testing the all-time highs after a 10% fall will likely be used to short stocks given that corrections such as the one seen normally last at least 1-3 months. In addition, no retest of the lows has yet been seen and it is unlikely that the traders will put themselves back into a risk situation where supports are not confirmed and big losses can occur.
As such and given that the indexes are likely to get close to the all-time highs this week if the recovery rally continues, all mentions this week are sales. By the same token, mentioned stocks will need to continue to rally this week to get to the desired entry points.
SALES
AAPL Friday Closing Price - 156.41
AAPL corrected 16.6% in the recent sell off and broke the 200-day and 50-week MA in the process, which were lines that had not been broken for the past 18 months, suggesting some weakness at these prices is real. The stock is now back to within 3% of the all-time high and reaching levels that were proven to be decent resistance levels for a period of 9 weeks in November/January, meaning that the probabilities of breaking those and continuing up to the all-time high are small. In addition and considering that those important MA lines were broken, a retest of those lines should occur before the traders look to continue the uptrend.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, AAPL shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 175.50 and decent between 176.24 and 177.20. Above that level, strong resistance is found at the all-time high at 180.10.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, AAPL shows minor to perhaps decent support at 169.22 and minor to decent at 166.46. Below that level, there is no support until minor to decent support is found at 154.00. Decent support is found at the recent low at 150.24. On a daily closing basis, there is some support at the 200-day MA, currently at 160.30.
AAPL already started to show some selling interest on Friday, having gotten up to 174.82 and then reversing to close in the red, suggesting that if there is any further upside above last week's high at that price that the selling interest will increase as the stronger resistance levels above are reached.
Minimum downside objective should be the support at 166.46 but a drop down to that level will not be enough to generate what would be considered a successful retest of the recent low at 150.24, meaning that a drop down to at least the 200-day MA should be seen. By the same token, having broken that line so easily the last time, it is not likely that on an intraweek basis the line will hold up if reached. The probable downside objective is 154.00 which was the first low seen after the correction started and testing that level seems to be a high probability.
Sales of AAPL between 175.40 and 176.24 and using a stop loss at 180.35 and having a 154.00 downside objective will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
WMT Friday Closing Price - 104.78
WMT corrected 12.4% during the fall and has now recovered over 7% of the loss. Nonetheless, the stock had rallied in the previous 17 weeks a total of 30% without any correction and that suggests that if no new highs are made that not only the recent low at 96.43 could be tested but that further downside could be seen, especially considering that the previous all-time high at 86.35 and that lasted for 22 months was not tested on this corrective phase.
WMT closed on the highs of the week on Friday and further upside above last week's high at 104.94 are expected to be seen this week. Any rally above last week's high will be seen as a retest of the all-time high but if no new high is made, the probabilities of a drop back down to test the recent low are high.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, WMT shows no resistance above until the all-time high at 109.98 is reached. Nonetheless, the all-time weekly closing high at 108.21 will likely be used by the bears to short the stock, if and when it gets up to that level. On the intraday chart, some resistance is found between 106.50 and 107.00, which should be reached but is likely to show some selling interest.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, WMT shows minor support at 98.53, a bit stronger at 97.00 and then decent at the recent low at 96.43. Below that level, there is support at the runaway gap at 94.72 that is further strengthened by the 100-day MA. Further support is found at the previous all-time weekly closing high at 89.35 that could become a target if the correction expands.
AMZN has appreciated 81% in value over the past 3 years but WMT has only appreciated 19% over the same period of time, meaning that fundamentally the company continues to falter in comparison to its competitor. With AMZN finally showing some correction tendencies at $1500, it does suggest that if that short-term trend continues that WMT will be a more attractive short than AMZN.
Sales of WMT above 107.00 and using a stop loss at 110.35 and having a 94.72 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
PTC Friday Closing Price - 73.28
PTC has rallied 64% over the past 2 years but is a company that in October 2017 got on the Zacks.com equity research list of 5 toxic stocks to abandon or short. Since it got on that list, the stock has rallied 25%, suggesting it is now even more overvalued than it was 4 months ago.
PTC made a new all-time high 5 weeks ago at 74.88 and then proceeded to correct 12.6% over the past couple of weeks (much like the indexes did) and has now recovered to within 1.5% of its all-time high and did close on the highs of the week last week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 73.80 will be seen this week. As such, with the indexes unlikely to make new highs and with the overvalued tag that was placed on it a few months ago, the stock is worth a look this week to short, if and when no new all-time highs are made early in the week.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, PTC shows decent resistance at 74.88/74.83, in the form of a double top that looms difficult to break.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, PTC shows minor support at 69.21, minor to perhaps decent at 66.30, and decent at the recent low at 65.48. Below that level, there is very minor support at 63.42 and then again at 60.81 and decent support at 59.39 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 59.90.
The probability number on a short position on PTC is not high for the simple reason it is so close to the all-time high that just a bit more buying (which is expected to be seen this week) occurs, that a new all-time high will be made. On the other side of the coin, the stock is showing a double top on the daily chart, generated a negative reversal day on Friday, having made a new 14-day high and then closing in the red and near the lows of the day, and if a top has been made the probabilities of the recent low being broken are excellent.
The chart of PTC suggests that a drop down to the 200-day MA is likely to be seen, if and when no new all-time highs are made this week. The low probability rating makes this trade at best a 50-50 possibility but with the indexes not likely to make new highs and the risk/reward ratio being excellent, it does make this trade one to consider seriously.
Sales of PTC at Friday's closing price of 73.28 and using a stop loss at 74.98 and having a 60.00 objective will offer an 8-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 2.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated a 5th green weekly close in a row but still fell short of making a new 31-month weekly closing high, having closed on Friday 4 points below the close seen the first week of the year at 40.84. Nonetheless, the stock closed once again near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 41.86 is expected to be seen this week and if that occurs and the intraweek high at 41.92 gets broken, there is no resistance above 47.40 is reached. Evidently, this is a pivotal week given the close on Friday as a red weekly close next Friday would create a double top. Intraday support is found at 39.21 and pivotal support is found at 36.88 that is broken would give the edge to the bears. Probabilities favor the bulls. BHTG made a new 6 week intraweek low and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.26 will be seen this week. The action negated the bullish flag that had been built over this period of time, suggesting that the bulls lost most of the ammunition they had recently gained. The inability of the bulls to generate any new buying after the spike up rally from 3.90 to 5.49 seen the first week of January, suggests that at the very least the stock will be retesting the recent intraweek low at 3.90 (3.92 on a weekly closing basis) that is considered decent and pivotal Minor to decent intraweek support is found at 4.23 that if not broken would give back to the bulls a minor edge. Below 4.23 there is no intraweek support until 3.90. Resistance is now minor to perhaps decent and definitely short-term pivotal at 5.14. Probabilities favor the bears this week. CCJ bears failed to generate any downside follow through after the previous week's close near the lows of the week and the bulls took advantage of it by rallying above the previous week's high, closing in the green and near the highs of the week, and generating the first green close in the last 5 weeks. The green weekly close makes the previous weeks close at 8.53 into the second successful retest of the previous 14-year low weekly close at 7.88 and also gives the bulls a 3-point up trend line that should give them new ammunition with which to attempt to break the long-term 7-year downtrend that started on February 2011 from 44.81. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance is found at 9.98, minor to decent at 10.35 and 10.68, and then decent as well as long-term pivotal at 11.18. To the downside, minor to decent intraweek support is found between 8.63 and 8.79 that should hold up. The key level remains the 200-day MA, currently at 9.57 as well as the high daily close for the past 3 months at 9.86. If those 2 levels are broken to the upside, the bulls will gain a strong edge. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CLF negated the break of the 200-day and 200 week MA's, which occurred 3 weeks ago, having generated a spike rally this past week and a convincing close above both lines that are currently at 7.00 and 7.05. The stock closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.99 will be seen this week. Very minor intraweek resistance is found at 8.20 and then nothing until minor to decent resistance at 8.77 and 8.88. Decent intraweek resistance is found at 9.15. The stock has now closed above the 200-week MA on 3 occasions and that suggests that a clear break of the line may have occurred. Weekly close resistance is found at 8.68 that if broken next Friday would generate the kind of buy signal that would suggest a strong short-covering rally will occur, with at least the 11.49 or perhaps the 13.00 levels as short-term upside objectives. Support is now decent and pivotal between 6.96 and 7.05, especially on a daily closing basis. Probabilities favor the bulls. CPG bears failed to generate any follow through to the downside after the previous week's close near the lows of the week and closed in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.24 will be seen this week. The previous week's weekly close at 6.93 has now become the required/needed successful retest of the all-time low weekly close at 6.43 that if confirmed with another green weekly close next Friday would suggest a strong bottom has been built. In fact, the intraweek chart now shows a double bottom at 6.42/6.43 and the weekly closing chart shows an inverted Head & Shoulders formation has now been built with the left shoulder at 6.76, the head at 6.43 and the right should at 6.92. The neckline is at 9.44 and if broken would give a 12.44 objective to be reached within 5 weeks of breakage. This coming week is very important as all of the above is dependent on a green weekly close next Friday. Nonetheless, oil did generate a $3+ rally last week that suggests further upside will occur this week and that perhaps the previous uptrend is resuming. As such, probabilities favor the bulls. As far as support is concerned, the 6.65 level is now decent and pivotal support that if broken would do damage to the chart. ENG bears were unable to generate any follow through to the downside off of the new 5-year low weekly close seen the previous week and did generate a green weekly close on Friday and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .82 will be seen this week. If that occurs and by more than 1 point (ie above .84), the 21-day downtrend that started on January 19th at .96 will come to a halt as the stock has not had any day during this period of time where a previous day's high has been broken by more than .1 cent. The earnings report comes out on March 8th (2+ weeks) and the probabilities of the traders covering shorts going into the report is high, suggesting this week might be the beginning of a mini run to the upside. Resistance remains decent at .95 and at .99 but a run up to the .92 level could be seen over the next 2 weeks. Support is now pivotal at .73. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. FCEL bulls were able to negate the new 5-month intraweek low that occurred last week, having generated a higher high than the previous week as well as a green close. Nonetheless, the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that a retest of that new 5-month low is likely to occur before new buying interest is seen. Last week's low was 1.67 and there is minor to decent support at 1.66 and then nothing until 1.59, which is a level that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA that is currently there. The chart suggests that this coming week will be a slight down week but that what is happening is a strong base building process that when finished (in a couple of weeks) that the end result will be to the upside and perhaps strongly. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week. GCI generated a green weekly close and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.49 will be seen this week. On a negative note though, the bulls were unable to negate the break of the weekly close support at 11.32 that occurred 2 weeks ago, having closed on Friday at 11.26. As such, the bulls have to generate further upside this week as well as another green weekly close next Friday. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 11.84. Pivotal support is found at 10.30. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but it is unlikely that anything of consequence will occur this week. MNK did not follow through to the downside off of the previous week's close on the lows of the week and did generate a green weekly close and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 17.33 will be seen this week and that some of the recent sell pressure has eased. The stock is now showing a possible double bottom on the daily chart with lows at 15.27 and 15.45 that if confirmed with a rally above 17.62 would likely generate some short-covering. Nonetheless, the chart only suggests that a pause in the downtrend may be occurring and that a rally back up to the $20 level might be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. RENN failed to follow through to the downside off of the previous week's close on the lows of the week and generated a green close, a rally above the previous week's high and a close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.70 will be seen this week. The stock is now also showing a confirmed successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 8.58, suggesting that the worst of the recent downtrend is over and that some recovery is likely to be seen. Intraweek support is now minor to decent at 9.01 and minor resistance is found at 10.25, a bit stronger at 11.15 and decent at 11.99. Chart suggests the stock will rally up to at least 10.69 and that no drop below 9.00 is likely to be seen. Probabilities favor the bulls. SLCA failed to follow through off of the previous week's close near the lows of the week to generate an inside week but with a green close and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 31.82 will be seen this week. The green weekly close now makes the previous week's close at 29.00 into the second successful retest of the major 2-year low weekly close at 25.44 suggesting that the recent uptrend is about the resume, or at least the previous high weekly close at 38.00 be retested. The major stumbling block to the bulls remains the 200-week MA, currently at 35.85, that is likely to be seen but unlikely to be broken unless oil continues high up to the $70 level. The key to this week is the resistance at 33.73 and the 200-day MA, currently at 33.30. A break above the intraweek resistance and a close above the line would give the bull's additional ammunition for further upside. Minor to decent intraweek support is found at 30.41 and strongly pivotal at 27.78. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .145 (new price 1.74). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .80. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 2.94. Stock closed on Friday at 4.08 (new price (40.80). 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.92. 5) RENN - Purchased at 11.08. No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 9.53. 6) CCJ - Averaged long at 9.585 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.23. 7) MNK - Averaged long at 25.165 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.80. 9) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.41. 10) ARNA - Averaged long at 29.093 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 32.50. Stock closed on Friday at 40.80. 11) CPG - Averaged long at 7.00. Stop loss now at 6.55. Stock closed on Friday at 7.02. 12) GCI - Averaged long at 11.175. Stop loss now at 10.20. Stock closed on Friday at 11.26. 13) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss now at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.74. 14) WDC - Shorted at 103.15. Covered shorts at 102.80. Profit on the trade of $35 per 100 shares minus commissions. 15) SLCA - Averaged long at 28.20. Stop loss at 27.32. Stock closed on Friday at 31.55. 16) NFLX - Shorted at 268.85. Covered shorts at 272.42. Loss on the trade of $377 per 100 shares plus commissions. 17) NFLX - Shorted at 276.92. Covered shorts at 277.42. Loss on the trade of $50 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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