Issue #560
January 28, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Indexes Start Year Strong. Over 7% Appreciation in Value!

DOW Friday closing price - 26616
SPX Friday closing price - 2872
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7505

The indexes continue the torrid run to the upside with the DOW adding 2.1% to the previous week's 1.1%, 2%, and 2.7% seen over the past 4 weeks (total of 8.9%), the SPX adding 2.2% to the previous week's .9%, 1.6% and 2.6% (total of 7.3%) and the NASDAQ adding 2.3% to the previous week's 1%, 1.8% and 3.3% (total of 8.4%). All indexes once again closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW at 26616, SPX at 2872 and NAZ at 7505).

The strong start for the year bodes well for the market, given that in years when the SPX posts a return of at least 5% by January 23rd, the index's return for the rest of the year has been at least 11.6%, according to Bespoke Investment Group, meaning that the year's target for the index is 3000. Then again, Bespoke also noted that the index has averaged a decline of at least 15% at some point in the remainder of the year when it starts this strong, meaning that somewhere between 2380 and 2550 is likely to be seen this year as well. This scenario is certainly borne out by the VIX that has shown increased volatility during the past 3 weeks and continues to be above the 200-day MA, currently at 10.80, in spite of the continued move to the upside by the index market.

It certainly seems evident that a negative catalyst is needed for a correction to begin, given the easy path to the upside that the bulls have enjoyed. This coming week does have the potential for such a catalyst since the ISM Index, Jobs Report, and Factory orders come out at the end of the week as well as the earnings report on AAPL and AMZN that come out on Thursday evening. Nonetheless, until then the probabilities continue to favor the indexes and further upside.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, none of the indexes show any resistance but using the percentage of appreciation seen during the past 4 weeks, the DOW could be get up somewhere to between 26882 and 27330, the SPX between 2910 and 2972 and the NASDAQ between 7580 and 7700.

To the downside, the drop seen on Wednesday (DOW at 26106, the SPX at 2824, and NASDAQ at 7376) will trigger some profit taking and at least a minor pause to the rally. Below those levels, the DOW shows a more pivotal support at 25256, the SPX at 2736 and the NASDAQ at 7111. Further support is found in the DOW at 24719 and then nothing until 24101. In the SPX further support is found at 2735, at 2673 and then nothing until 2652 and then rally ending support at 2605. The NASDAQ shows further support at 7111, shows minor to perhaps decent but likely short-term pivotal support at 6903. Below that level, there is likely rally ending support at 6734.

It is expected that the indexes will see more of the same at the beginning of the week as has been seen the last 4 weeks, meaning higher prices. Nonetheless, at the end of the week the economic and earnings reports will open the door for some profit taking if lower than expected and further upside if better than expected. Nonetheless, it must be remembered that there is a dependable seasonal correction that begins sometime in the first 12 weeks of the year and more often than not begins soon after the bulk of the first quarter earnings reports have come out, suggesting that by the second week of February some downside price action is likely to begin.

Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

This coming week there is nothing on the earnings or economic calendar until Thursday, suggesting further upside is to be seen in this runaway market. Purchases remain as "the way to go" until such a time that the action suggests otherwise.

There are 2 purchase mentions this week, with one of them being the same one as last week but that did not get down to the desired entry point and the other one a stock that just last week broke out of its downtrend.

Should there be any changes in direction during the week, especially next Friday after the important earnings and economic reports for the week come out, I will give any new mentions in the message board.

PURCHASES

SN Friday Closing Price 5.54

SN is an exploration and production company that focuses on the acquisition and development of U.S. onshore unconventional oil and natural gas resources. With oil having broken out of a 4-year downtrend and looking to move higher, companies such as this one that are considered undervalued and at low prices have become attractive stocks to purchase. SN traded as high as 38.95 just 3+ years ago but got into a downtrend when oil went south in price. The stock made a new all-time low at 2.06 just 2 years ago this January and from that low generated a bounce up to 14.37 that was seen a year ago. From January 2017 to October 2017 the stock was once again in a downtrend, having moved all the way down to 3.58, a low that was seen in October, but with oil prices moving up, the stock has seen some buying interest recently, having moved up to 6.19, a high that was seen just 2 weeks ago.

The chart of SN is showing an almost classic rounded bottom with 3 big time lows at 6.22 (Dec 2014), at 2.06 (Jan 2016), and at 3.58 (Oct 2017) and with the stock just a couple of weeks ago making a new 22-week high, the chart suggests the stock is ready to start a new uptrend.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, SN shows minor resistance at 5.77, minor to perhaps decent at 5.92 and decent at the recent 6-month high at 6.19. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 6.84 and decent at 7.65.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, SN shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 5.13 and decent as well as pivotal at 4.31.

SN recently got above the 200-day MA, currently at 5.75, when it rallied to 6.19 but given that it was the first attempt at the line after 8 months of trading below the line, the attempt failed and a drop back down to 5.21 occurred. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.34 will be seen this week. By the same token, the stock did generate a green weekly close last week, suggesting that buying interest is being seen.

The weekly chart of SN suggests that the stock could get down as low as the 2-point trend line that started at 3.58 in October, which is now currently at 4.87. Nonetheless, the daily chart and the bounce seen Friday, suggest that the minor support at 5.13 will not be broken, meaning that it is possible that no further downside will be seen.

The daily chart offers a short-term (2-4 weeks) objective of 7.65, if and when the stock can close above the 200-day MA convincingly. Nonetheless, the weekly chart suggests that the likely objective of this trade is $10 with a slight chance of the stock getting up as high as the 200-week MA that is currently at 11.40. Either way, this stock and the fundamental picture behind it, suggests it is a purchase with the only question being "what is the best entry point?".

Purchases of SN between 4.90 and 5.30 and using a stop loss at 4.66 and having a 7.65 objective will offer at least a 3.3-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

EBAY Friday Closing Price - 40.88

EBAY has been on a consistent uptrend for the last 2 years (since February 2016) when it made a 6-year low at 21.51. The stock broke convincingly above the 200-week MA last week, currently at 39.05, and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 40.91 will be seen this week. The stock has traded below the MA line since July 2015 when something of consequence happened to the company that caused it to fall from 66.73 to 26.58 in one day. As such, getting above the line this past week is indicative that the company's past woes are over and that further appreciation is likely to be seen.

EBAY likely has a 47.95 weekly close upside chart objective as that was the previous 32-month weekly close support that got broken in July 2015. A retest of that level is now highly likely given the breakout of the MA seen this past week. In addition, the resistance levels above Friday's close and below 47.95 are all minor in nature and given the torrid rally strength seen in the index market, an additional appreciation in value of 15% over the next 4-12 weeks is possible.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, EBAY shows minor resistance at 41.96, at 43.94 and then nothing until 50.64. Nonetheless, all of the resistance levels are from 6 years ago, meaning that the traders may not be putting much attention to them.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, EBAY shows minor support at 37.24 and then decent at 33.94. On an intraday basis though, there is minor support at 40.55 and then minor to decent at 39.92 that is further strengthened by the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 39.95, which is a line that has not been broken to the downside for past 7 days.

EBAY is on a breakout and with the indexes running to the upside and not likely to show any weakness until perhaps the end of the week, the probabilities favor the stock continuing higher without any backing and filling. As such and to hold on to the 4-1 risk/reward ratio, a sensitive stop loss based on the intraday chart will be used. It will keep the risk/reward ratio good but will lower the probability rating.

In addition, EBAY reports earnings on Wednesday after the close, which is a possibly catalytic event, so the idea is to get as much profit on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday with the least amount of risk and then consider whether to keep the stock for the report or not.

Purchases of EBAY around Friday's close at 40.88 and using a sensitive stop loss at 39.65 and having a 47.95 objective will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA followed through to the upside off of the previous week's positive reversal to close in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 38.95 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a negative reversal day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 37.75. Intraday support is found at the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 37.35 and then a bit stronger at 36.65. A drop below Friday's low will be seen as the required/needed retest of the recent low at 33.03, which has not yet occurred. To the upside, there is minor intraday resistance at 38.95, at 39.54, at 39.83 and then a bit stronger at 40.94. Above that level, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at the recent high at 41.92. Probabilities favor the bulls this week after a small down move at the beginning of the week. Possible trading range for the week could be 37.35 to 40.94 or 36.65 to 39.94. Traders will likely await the earnings report due out on February 6th before committing to further upside.

BHTG generated a red week and a close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.90 will be seen this week. The intraweek support at 5.01 has been broken, meaning that the stock is likely to get down to the next level of support at 4.75 this week. It is important to note that the 200-day MA is currently at 4.73 and given the flagpole rally and bull flag built over the past 4 weeks that a drop to that line and that support is likely to be seen but not likely to be broken. Below 4.75 there is support at 4.55 but a drop down to that level would slightly weaken the chart. Nonetheless, the fundamental picture for the stock remains positive and the chart picture is leaning to the bull side, meaning that adding positions between 4.55 and 4.76 should be considered.

CCJ generated another red week with a close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.19 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, it was an uneventful inside week that was more about chart building and backing and filling than about direction. The bears remains with a slight edge as the stock remains below the 200-day MA, currently at 9.73. A short-term sell signal was given this week as the stock closed below the 3 most recent low daily closes, meaning that the recent 15-week uptrend has been interrupted, suggesting the traders will wait for the earnings report that comes out on February 8th before attempting once more to break the 200-day MA, currently at 9.70. Intraweek support of consequence is found between 8.90 and 8.95, daily close support of consequence is found between 9.03 and 9.10 and weekly close support is found at 9.10 and at 9.23, meaning that the probabilities of the stock generating a drop down to 8.95 early in the week but then closing above all of these levels and in the green next Friday is high. Expect another backing and filling and chart building week as the traders await the earnings report.

CLF generated a negative reversal week of some consequence as a new 10-month intraweek high was made after the earnings report came out but then the stock reversed to close in the red below the previous week's low and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.60 will be seen this week. In addition, a failure signal was given on Friday when the stock closed below the previous high weekly close at 8.48. The negative reversal off of what seems to be a better than expected earnings report does suggest that the 200-week MA, currently at 7.25, which was broken for the second time in 5+ years the first week of January will be retested before the traders considered anything else. The first time the line was broken was in February of last year and 2 weeks later a failure signal was given with a close below the line. Subsequently, the stock went on a 15-week downtrend that took the stock from 12.37 to 5.61. As such, next Friday's close (above or below the line) will be indicative of what to expect of the stock for the next few months. A close above the line, especially if above Friday's close at 7.63, would be a bullish statement of consequence. A close near the line but above it would leave the door open for a positive reversal the following week. A close below the line would be a negative statement. The probabilities slightly favor the bulls simply because the fundamental picture seems to be better than before, the stock has been in sideways trend for the past year with the bulls accomplishing more than the bears and all of this occurring after the stock has given clear signals that the previous downtrend is over. As such, the probabilities favor the stock getting down to 7.25 this week but then turning around and giving the bulls some chart ammunition from which to take the stock at least back up to the 12.37 high seen last year, if not start a new uptrend.

ENG generated a negative week as it failed to go above the previous week's high in spite of the close the previous week in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that the bulls are not yet ready to gain back some measure of control. By the same token, the action seen last week mimics the action seen the past 6 weeks that suggests that a bottom is and has been in the building process, with a slight bias to the bulls. The stock did get down on Friday to the intraweek support at .81 and bounced up to close near the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at .87. If that occurs, the support at .81 will be further strengthened. Resistance is found at .92, minor at .94 and minor to perhaps decent at the recent high at .96. Further and likely minor to decent is found at 1.00. The probabilities favor the stock continuing to trade with a very slight bullish bias and a 1.00 objective as the traders wait for the earnings report that comes out Friday February 9th.

FCEL made a new 13-day low and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.70 will be seen this week. The action seen was disappointing inasmuch as the stock is now one small step away from giving sell signals on both the daily and weekly closing chart. A daily close below 1.69 any day this week would generate a sell signal and a close below 1.70 next Friday would generate a sell signal on the weekly closing chart. In addition, an intraweek break below 1.66 would also generate a sell signal, meaning that almost any follow through to the downside this coming week would weaken the chart. This is especially worrisome to the bulls coming on the heels of a better than expected earnings report a couple of weeks ago. If an intraweek break of 1.66 is seen, the 1.58 level on a weekly closing basis becomes pivotal as that is where the 200-week MA is currently at. By the same token, if 1.66 is broken it would negate the uptrend and likely put the stock back into a sideways trend between 1.58 and 2.10 for at least the next 3 months. Minor but possibly short-term pivotal resistance is found at Friday's high at 1.83. A rally above that level, would negate Friday's weakness. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

GCI technically generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high by 2 points and then closing in the red. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to close the stock in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that the week was more uneventful than indicative. For the past 9 weeks, the bulls have had a slight edge but they have only been able to rally the stock 7% (68 points) over that period of time, meaning that the bulls likely require some positive fundamental news to get to the next level. Weekly close resistance is found at 12.40 that if broken would be the chart signal that would give the bulls the ammunition to take the stock higher. The stock reports earnings on February 8th. Short-term pivotal support remains at 10.90. Probabilities at this time continue to favor the bulls but then only for a rally and weekly close up at 12.40.

LVS made a new 44-month intraweek high and a new 42-month weekly closing high last week but the bulls were unable to maintain the gain in spite of a better than expected earnings report that came out on Wednesday after the close, having closed on Friday in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 74.52 will likely be seen this week. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 76.08. The better than expected earnings report did generate several upgrades (Bank of America with an $85 target and Stiffel Nicolau with an $88 target) but JP Morgan maintained its neutral rating with a $72 target. The negative reaction to the earnings report does suggest some downside will be seen this week with the likely objective of testing and probably closing the weekly chart breakaway gap between 71.24 and 72.06, especially given that the runaway gap between 75.00 and 75.15 that was seen at the beginning of the week was closed after the earnings report came out. Decent intraweek support is found at 69.15 that is highly unlikely to be broken due to the bullish fundamental picture but a drop down to that level is a possibility. The short trade given the bullish fundamentals and rallying stock index market does make this a low probability short trade, meaning a close watch on the action needs to be maintained. Stop loss is presently at 78.67 but a break above the intraday resistance at 76.61 could be a sign that the stock will continue higher. Probabilities very slightly favor the bears.

MNK continued the now 5-week short-term downtrend, having generated another red weekly close and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 20.56 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a new all-time low weekly close on Friday, having closed below the previous one at 21.22 that was made12 weeks ago. By the same token and with the all-time intraweek low being at 19.00, the new weekly closing low is not yet all that indicative, especially considering that the $20 level is a strong psychological support. Minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 22.15 that if broken would suggest the worst of the downtrend is over. Probabilities favor the bears this week for a drop down to the $20 demilitarized zone. Nonetheless, there is a fair chance that the stock will reverse at the end of the week.

RENN generated an unconvincing positive reversal week, having made a new 19-week low and then closing in the green but near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 10.42 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to push the stock up to 10.83, suggesting that the weakness being seen is likely short-term and limited. The stock does have decent psychological and historical support at the $10 demilitarized zone suggesting that is the downside objective of this short-term downtrend. There is pivotal support at 9.81 that if broken would suggest the reason for the rally to 18.70 has disappeared (unlikely). To the upside, there is resistance at 11.13, at 11.55 and at 11.98. The resistance at 11.98 is pivotal. Chart suggest that the stock will be in a trading range between 10.30 and 11.98 until the next earnings report on March 6th comes out.

WDC reported better than expected earnings this week and though the initial reaction to the report was slightly negative, by the end of the week the stock generated a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week's, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 89.84 will be seen this week. On another positive note, the low on Friday was at the 200-day MA, currently at 86.75, and if the stock gets above Friday's high on Monday that low will become the required/needed retest of the breakout of that line. In addition and probably more importantly, the stock closed the weekly gap from November at 89.83, suggesting the daily gap at 92.25 will be closed this week as well. To the upside, there is quite a bit of resistance starting at 90.33 and up to 92.29 that was built repeatedly over the past 9 months, meaning that once the stock closes the gap at 92.25, serious consideration should be given to taking profits. Pivotal support is now likely to be found at Friday's low at 86.71. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .141 (new price 1.70).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .87.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 2.94. Stock closed on Friday at 3.786 (new price (37.86).

4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.63.

5) RENN - Purchased at 11.08. Stop loss at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 10.49.

6) CCJ - Averaged long at 9.585 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 9.05. Stock closed on Friday at 9.23.

7) MNK - Averaged long at 35.754 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.01.

9) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.90.

10) ARNA - Averaged long at 29.093 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 32.50. Stock closed on Friday at 37.86.

11) LVS - Shorted at 77.40. Stop loss at 78.87. Stock closed on Friday at 75.50.

12) GCI - Purchased at 11.33. Stop loss at 10.93. Stock closed on Friday at 12.04.

13) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.70.

14) WDC - Purchased at 86.23. Averaged long at 82.555 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 85.00. Stock closed on Friday at 89.60.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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