Issue #558 ![]() January 14, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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New Year has been all Bull. Indexes Extend Rally!
DOW Friday closing price - 25803
The indexes continue the torrid run to the upside with the DOW adding 2% to the previous week's 2.7%, the SPX adding 1.6% to the previous weeks 2.6% and the NASDAQ adding 1.8% to the previous week's 3.3%. All indexes once again closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW at 25810, SPX at 2787 and NAZ at 7265).
The market is showing its most overbought RSI rating since 1995 (23 years) and nearly 77% of those polled by the Investors Intelligent Sentiment Survey were bullish and that is the second highest rating in the 54 years the Survey has been in existence. Historically, market returns following such reading have been tepid at best. The highest reading in the history of the survey was in 1976 and over the subsequent year the SPX fell 11.5%.
The market is now into the first week of the January earnings quarter and for the past few years the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter have been positive to the market, suggesting that this rally could continue until the first or second week of February. Some people have bandied about a 30,000 objective for the DOW and a 3400 objective for the SPX this year. At the 2% rate the indexes have risen the first 2 weeks of the year, those objectives could be reached over the next 2 months.
Nonetheless, the bar for growth has been raised now as the Tax Reform bill suggests that GDP will increase by .3% (Goldman Sachs numbers) and that earnings per share for SPX companies would rise by $10 per share in 2018. As such, the onus is now on the shoulders of the bulls as the anticipation is over and time for proof is at hand. Lower than expected earnings are now more likely to be catalytic than higher than expected earnings.
This coming week though, is not likely to see any changes to the trend as there are only 6 companies of consequence reporting earnings and most of them are in the financial arena (C, BAC, GS, MS, and AXP). The only biggie outside of the financial arena is IBM on Thursday and IBM ceased being a catalyst many years ago. In addition, the economic calendar for the week is bereft of reports that have catalytic power as Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (coming out on Wednesday) lead the way this week.
To the upside and for all the indexes, there is no resistance at all (psychological or otherwise), meaning that there are no levels where the bears can mount a unified push to stop the rally.
To the downside, Wednesday's minor down day is the only resistance nearby but it is very minor. In the DOW it is at 25256, in the SPX it is at 2736 and in the NASDAQ it is at 7111. Below those levels, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent but likely short-term pivotal support at 24719 and then nothing until 24101. In the SPX below 2735, there is minor to perhaps decent but likely short-term pivotal support at 2673. Below that level, there is minor support at 2652 and then rally ending support at 2605. The NASDAQ below 7111, shows minor to perhaps decent but likely short-term pivotal support at 6903. Below that level, there is likely rally ending support at 6734.
It is expected that the indexes will see more of the same this week as seen the last 3 weeks, meaning higher prices. With the DOW going up 2.6% the first week of January and 2% last week, it is expected the index growth will slow down a bit more and maybe only see a rally of about 1.4% this week. Nonetheless, that is still about 300 more points to the upside, meaning that the index could see the 26,000 level this week.
One word of caution though, hedge selling has been dropping in the last 2 weeks, meaning that more and more hedge sellers are opting to go without protection in the market. This is generally a sign that the market is getting sated and like Warren Buffet once said "when everyone is buying, it is time to sell".
One last thought, there has been a strong seasonal historic trend of having a decent correction start sometime in the first quarter of each year. Even in 2017 (a unique up year) the DOW corrected 3.6% between the last week of February and the 3rd week of April. As such, there is no reason to believe it will not happen this year as well, especially with the hugely overbought scenario. Some type of catalyst is likely to be needed to get the correction started and this week is not likely to have such a catalyst. Nonetheless, eyes need to be kept open for unexpected movement in the market.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The market continues higher and at this moment there doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon that will change the direction. Nonetheless, the undervalued or overlooked mid-to-low cap and commodity based stocks seem to be gaining attention and participation, suggesting that the traders may change from the overvalued stocks to the undervalued stocks to continue the uptrend.
I looked at over 120 stocks this weekend and had a hard time finding stocks that fit the requirements mentioned above. Most stocks have already rallied aggressively and would need to be chased to enter. Chasing stocks is not a good idea at this time. Nonetheless, I did find one stock that fulfills most of the requirements mentioned above and that is this week's mention. In addition, I will be looking to purchase more of the 2 stocks that I mentioned and purchased last week (CCJ and GCI) as they are worth adding to. I will give you desired entry points to add on the message board.
PURCHASES
BEN Friday Closing Price - 44.53
BEN from 2009 to 2014 was in a strong uptrend, having gone up from a low of 12.47 to a high of 59.43. Nonetheless, in 2014 the stock got into a downtrend that took the stock down to the $31 level by February 2016. The stock then proceeded to build a support base over the next 9 months and in December 2016 the stock broke the downtrend.
For the past 12 months, BEN has maintained a sideways trend mostly trading between $40 and $46.50, likely building a new support base from which to begin a new uptrend. During the past 30 months the stock has been trading below the 200-week MA, currently at 44.70, but has tested the line successfully on 3 occasions and is now at the line again for the 4th time, suggesting that a breakout is now likely to occur, especially with the continuing strength in the index market.
BEN has built a bullish flag formation over the past 9 weeks, with the flagpole being the 4-week rally from 40.22 to 44.90 and the flag the 5 week trading range down to 43.06. A break of the top of the flag offers a 47.74 objective.
BEN generated a spike rally last week and a close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 44.67 will be seen this week. If that occurs and the previous intraweek high at 44.90 is broken, not only will the flag be triggered but also a buy signal given.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, BEN shows resistance at 45.40, at 45.85 and stronger at the 30-month high at 47.65. Above that level, there is no resistance until $50 demilitarized zone is reached.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, BEN shows minor to perhaps decent but definitely short-term pivotal support at 43.06. Below that level, there is support at 40.95 and at 40.22.
The chart of BEN seems to be fulfilled as far a support building and testing of resistance and with the index market stimulating new buying across the board, the probabilities strongly favor the stock breaking out and at least rallying to the 47.65 level. Nonetheless, if a breakout does occur and is confirmed, the probabilities would favor the bulls making a statement and breaking that resistance and heading up to the $50 level, which is certainly a psychological magnet.
BEN gapped up on Friday based on the report of the large amount of cash on hand the company presently has. If the stock gaps up on Monday, it is worth chasing. If the stock does not gap up, there is a decent chance the stock will drop down to close the gap at 43.95 before heading back up to break the top of the flag and the MA line.
Purchases of BEN between 43.96 and Friday's close at 44.53 and using a stop loss at 42.96 and having a 50.00 objective will offer a 3.5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The rating would be higher if the stock had already broken the 200-week MA for the 4th time.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA failed to follow through to the upside off of the previous week's spike up rally (due to the Wells Fargo upgrade with a $53 objective) and close near the highs of the week and gave back over 80% of the gains to close on the lows of the week with further downside below last week's low at 34.82 expected to be seen this week. There was no news to cause the drop, suggesting that it was mostly technical in nature, having reached a decent weekly close resistance area at $40 that was built between September 2014 and July 2015 and with there being no close-by support built previously that the bulls could defend, the bears were able to push the stock down easily. Nonetheless, decent intraweek support will be found between 32.60 and 33.00 that comes from 2 strong spike lows that were made in October 2014 and January 2015 and from which rallies up to 49.05 and 62.80 were seen, respectively. There is decent and important weekly close support at 34.20 that could still be seen on a weekly closing basis next Friday, but not likely to be broken unless the fundamental picture has changed (not likely). By the same token, if the stock closes in the green next Friday, it is likely that the downside push seen last week will be over. There is no intraweek resistance above until the previous week's high at 41.92 is reached, meaning that if the support levels hold up, a recovery rally could be as swift to the upside as last week's drop was to the downside. Probabilities favor the bears for some further downside at the beginning of the week but the outlook for the end of the week is 50-50. BHTG was able to technically generate follow through to the upside, having gone above the previous week's high at 5.48 and close above the previous week's close, both by 1 point. It was not follow through action that was convincing but then again considering the weakness seen the previous 20 weeks, it was somewhat of a positive statement. The 5.48 level on an intraweek basis remains resistance but with the stock now showing 3 highs at that level, the probabilities favor that resistance level getting broken. The stock is showing a clearly defined bullish flag with the flagpole being the 3-day rally from 3.90 to 5.48 and the flag being the action see the last 8 days down to 5.08. A convincing break above 5.48 will offer an upside objective off of the flag formation of 6.66, to be reached within 3 days of the break. Support is found at 5.08 and a bit stronger at 5.01. Above 5.48 there is no resistance until 6.30 is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls. CCJ followed through to the upside after the previous week's reversal off of the 3-week downtrend with higher highs and a green weekly close. In addition and probably more importantly, the stock tested successfully on the daily chart the previous low at 9.15 with a drop this past week to 9.28, followed by the rally above the previous week's high, which in turn suggests that the chart is now fulfilled to the downside and that that traders will be exploring the upside. Minor resistance is found at 10.06, a bit stronger at 10.35, minor to decent at 10.68 and decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 11.68. Support is found at 9.28 and at 9.15. A break of 9.28 though, would likely generate additional new selling interest. Probabilities favor the bulls this week and also for the mid-term and for a rally up to the 200-week MA, currently at 13.25, to be reached within the next 6 weeks or less. CLF made a new 10-month intraweek and weekly closing high this past week and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.88 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock confirmed the break of the 200-week MA (for the second time in the past 6 years) with a second green close in a row. The last break of the line (also for 2 weeks) occurred in February but on that occasion the second close above the line was on the lows of the week, suggesting that a failure signal might be given the following week, unlike the close seen on Friday. As such, this break seems to be more conclusive. To the upside, minor resistance is found at 9.99 and then minor to decent at 10.90. Decent and long-term pivotal resistance is found at 12.47. The outlook for the stock is for a rally up to the 10.90 level and then a drop back to at least 8.28 and perhaps even to test the MA, currently at 7.35, all of this to happen over the next 6-10 weeks. As such, consideration can be given to taking profits when the stock nears 10.90 and looking to repurchase below 8.30. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low and then closing in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .92 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at .81 will become the required/needed retest on the weekly chart of the double bottom at .73 and give the bulls new ammunition to start exploring the upside. Mid-term pivotal resistance remains at 1.00 but if the bulls are able to get above .92 this week, it is highly likely that the 1.00 level will be seen. Above 1.00, there is minor resistance at 1.10 and then nothing until 1.24. Support is presently found at .79 but if the bulls are able to get above .92, support will then be found at .84 and at .87. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. FCEL reported better than expected earnings and spiked up to make a new 9-week high. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 2.17 will be seen this week. On a negative note though, the bulls were unable to generate a new 9-week weekly closing high above 2.02, having closed on Friday at 1.98, which in turn suggests the earnings report was not sufficiently better as to restart the uptrend without further backing and filling being done. The stock did close near the lows of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside. Objective is likely to be the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 1.86. Further but minor support on the daily chart is found at 1.82. If those support levels hold up, the bulls will likely try to upside again. Resistance is found at 2.25 and at 2.31. If 2.31 is broken it will be a bullish statement. Decent and long term pivotal resistance is found at 2.49. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls for a close above 2.02 next Friday. GCI remained within the bull flag that has been in place for the past 8 weeks but the stock did close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.90 will be seen this week. The stock closed on Friday within 4 points of the 17-month high weekly close at 11.88, suggesting that the probabilities favor the bulls for a breakout next week and a rally to the 12.40 weekly close resistance area, which is a major low weekly close that stood up to 14 months between June 2015 and August 2017. A weekly close above 12.40 would give a strong failure signal and suggest a rally up to at least the 13.92 level and probably more. Support is now found at 11.03 and at 10.90, that if broken would be a short-term bearish sign. The bullish flag formation presently in place, offers a 14.85 objective if the top of the flag at 12.37 is broken. Probabilities favor the bulls. MNK generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 23.88 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at 21.99 will become a required/needed successful retest of the all-time low at 19.00, which in turn would likely generate new buying interest. Minor resistance is found at 24.20 and then short-term pivotal at 24.80 that if broken would suggest the gap up at 26.91 would be tested. A rally above 23.88 will make last week's low at 21.99 into a decent support level. Probabilities favor the bulls this week, given that the stock has now built a decent and supported bottom over the past 12 weeks. WDC generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5 week low and then turning around to close in the green and above last week's high at 83.00, suggesting that not only further upside above that level will be seen this week but that last week's low will become a successful retest of the 76.59 low but also the 2nd successful retest of the 200-week MA line. To the upside and on an intraweek basis, there is no resistance until 85.36 is reached. Further resistance is found at 85.63 and on a weekly closing basis, at the 200-day MA, currently at 86.75. The rally above the previous week's high generated a new buy signal, the first in the past 2 months, meaning that the stock is now poised to at least test the 200-day MA. By the same token, with the 2 successful retests of the 200-week MA and the indexes looking to continue higher, the probabilities are now shifting toward the stock getting above the 200-day MA and probably moving up to the $92 level where resistance is decent. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .165 (new price 1.98). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .87. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 29.43. Stock closed on Friday at 34.95. 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.68. 5) GS - Covered shorts at 254.24. Averaged short at 261.085. Profit on the trade of $1365 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions. 6) CCJ - Purchased at 9.61. Stop loss at 9.05. Stock closed on Friday at 9.86. 7) MNK - Averaged long at 35.754 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.50. 9) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.22. 10) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss now at 32.50. Stock closed on Friday at 34.95. 11) AMZN - Covered shorts at 1247.1247.55. Shorted at 987.95. Loss on the trade of $12,980 per 50 shares plus commissions. 12) GCI - Purchased at 11.33. Stop loss at 10.93. Stock closed on Friday at 11.84. 13) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.98. 14) WDC - Purchased at 78.88. Stop loss now at 78.65. Stock closed on Friday at 83.12. 15) AMZN - Shorted at 1251.97. Covered shorts at 1239.96. Profit on the trade of $585.50 per 50 shares minus commissions. 16) AMZN - Shorted at 1258.34. Covered shorts at 1247.55. Profit on the trade of $539.50 per 50 shares minus commissions. 17) AMZN - Shorted at 1250.36. Covered shorts at 1251.12. Loss on the trade of $38 per 50 shares plus commissions. 18) AMZN - Shorted at 1262.68. Covered shorts at 1263.63.35. Loss on the trade of $33.50 per 50 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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