Issue #557 ![]() January 7, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
New Year was all Bull. Indexes Extend Rally!
DOW Friday closing price - 25295
The indexes started the year with a bang, with the DOW extending the rally by 2.7%, the SPX by 2.6% and the NASDAQ by 3.3%. Since Trump got elected in November 2016, the indexes have appreciated in value between 26% (SPX) and 30% (DOW & NASDAQ) and during these 14 months there have been only 3 very minor corrections, none of which was more than 3%. In looking at history for the past 24 years, there has only been one other period in time when the indexes did anything similar and that was between 1994 and 1996 when the DOW went from a low of 3613 to a high of 5833 (38% rally) before a correction of consequence occurred (11.4%). During that run, the DOW generated 2 minor corrections of 4.6% and 4.7% and in that respect it can be said this rally is unique as no corrections like that have occurred on this rally. On that occasion, the indexes continued higher for an additional 12 months before a major correction occurred. As such and using history as a guideline, the indexes could continue higher if the same pattern is repeated.
The one and probably only problem that now exists for the bulls is that the present rally is purely momentum and with the anticipation of the Tax reform now over, proof of results is now a must for the rally to continue for much longer. With the earnings quarter starting this week, companies need to show continued improvement in their bottom line for additional buying to occur. Then again, the big Tech companies (AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL) will not be reporting until the end of the month and those are the ones that have mostly been driving the market up, meaning that there seems to be little that can stop the rally this week. JPM and WFC report on Friday.
In looking at the past 24 years of the DOW chart, I did find one interesting fact that could be a harbinger of what is to come in 2018. In November of 1994, the index began a 62 month bull market that took the index from 3612 to 11750. In that uptrend, the index generated a total of 5 corrections with the strongest one being the 4th correction between July and September 1998 in which the index corrected 21.7%. From there, the index rallied a total of 38% over the next 17 months to make its then all-time high at 11750 in January 2000 and from which a downtrend began. That January turned out to be a negative reversal month, having gone above December's high and making a new all-time high and then closing in the red. The index has now rallied 40.3%% since the last strong correction that occurred in June-Dec 2015 in which the index corrected 16.3% and given that the indexes have already gone above last month's highs, it could set a similar repeat of what occurred in the year 2000.
The indexes reached and surpassed easily the psychological resistance levels at 25,000 in the DOW, at 2700 in the SPX and 7000 in the NASDAQ and that means that there is nothing above (psychologically or historically) that will bring in concentrated selling interest by the bears. As such, there are no levels presently that can be used as guidelines for a rally top.
To the downside, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent but likely short-term pivotal support at 24719. Below that, there is nothing of consequence until the 24101 level is reached. The SPX shows minor to perhaps decent but likely short-term pivotal support at 2673. Below that level, there is minor support at 2652 and then rally ending support at 2605. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent but likely short-term pivotal support at 69.03. Below that level, there is likely rally ending support at 6734.
The indexes all closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW at 25299, SPX at 2743 and NASDAQ at 7137). If those levels are not broken this week, or only broken by a minor amount, the probabilities will then favor the indexes being in a somewhat sideways trading range for the next 3 weeks while the important earnings reports come out. In 2000 when a negative reversal occurred in January, the indexes made the new all-time high the 1st week of January and closed on the highs of the week (much like what was seen last week) and on the 2nd week of the year, they failed to go above the previous week's highs, signaling that the correction had begun. As such, that is one of the things the traders will be closely looking at this week. Failure to follow through after such an impressive week as last week was, would be a good reason for the traders to take profits. Otherwise, expect the rally to continue unabated until the earnings begin to come out.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
The market continues higher and at this moment there doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon that will change the direction. Nonetheless, the undervalued, mid-to-low cap and commodity based stocks seem to be gaining attention and participation, suggesting that the traders may change from the overvalued stocks to the undervalued stocks to continue the uptrend.
There are 3 new stocks being mentioned this week that fulfill those requirements and that have recently shown breakouts that suggest buying interest may be centered on them.
PURCHASES
CCJ Friday Closing Price 9.79
CCJ is a company that produces and sells Uranium worldwide. With the recent breakout of the commodity market in which oil, metals and commodity based products have been rallying, the stock shows a chart that is attractive for purchase.
CCJ made a 13-year low in October 2016 at 7.41 and that low was tested successfully in October of this year with a drop down to 7.68. Two weeks ago, the stock dropped down to 9.15 and last week the stock generated a spike up rally to 9.88, which in turn is now also considered a successful retest of the 7.68 low. In addition, the stock is showing a similar to an inverted Head & Shoulders formation with the left shoulder being at 8.96, the head at 7.68 and the right shoulder at the previous week's low at 9.15. The inverted H&S like formation is showing the neckline using the weekly closing chart at 10.56/10.37 that if broken gives an objective of 12.92, based on a weekly close. In addition and with the successful retests of the 13-year low, a rally up to the 200-week MA, currently at 13.30, seems like a viable and likely objective.
CCJ closed on the highs of the week last week and further upside above last week's high at 9.88 is expected to be seen this week.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, CCJ shows minor resistance at 10.35, minor to perhaps decent at 10.64 and then decent at the most recent high at 11.18. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 11.91 and at 12.37 and decent at 13.36.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, there is minor to perhaps decent as well as likely pivotal support at the low seen 2 weeks ago at 9.15 that also represents the right shoulder of the H&S Formation. Below that level there is no support until 7.68.
With commodity companies rallying and the stock showing a very evident and bullish inverted Head & Shoulders like formation, the probabilities strongly favor the bulls for a short-term run up to the $13 level. A break above 13.36 though, would be a major breakout that would turn the long-term downtrend into a new uptrend.
Purchases on CCJ between Friday's close at 9.79 and down to 9.60 and using a stop loss at 9.05 and having a 13.30 objective will offer a 4.5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
RECN Friday Closing Price - 15.75
RECN broke above the 200-day MA on October 5th and above the 200-week MA on October 23rd and since then has stayed above those lines, meaning that the stock is now at least on a sideways trend if not at the beginning of a new uptrend.
RECN made a new 13-week low on Wednesday but reversed the break on Thursday and confirmed the reverse on Friday, suggesting that the bears have lost control. In addition, Wednesday's low 14.95 is now considered a double bottom when matched up with October 23rd low at 14.90, meaning that there is now a strong support level from which the bulls can generate new buying with limitation of risk.
Using the weekly chart, RECN is showing a strong bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the 4-week rally from 12.05 to 16.10 and the flag being the 13-week sideways trend back down to 15.30 (using the weekly closing chart). One additional positive is that the 200-week MA is currently at 15.26 and the close 2 weeks ago at 15.30 is now seen as a successful retest of the breakout of the MA line, suggesting the uptrend is about to resume.
The bullish flag offers a 19.80 objective, which is also where the 6+-year high at 19.80 is located, meaning that it is a viable objective. By the same token, the objective of the mention will be slightly more conservative at 18.54-18.71, which is where some decent resistance is found.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, RECN shows minor to perhaps decent as well as short-term pivotal resistance at 16.80 and then nothing of consequence until 18.54. Above that level, there is decent resistance at 18.71 and decent to perhaps strong at 19.80.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, RECN shows minor to perhaps decent support between 15.20 and 15.25 and then pivotal at 14.90.
With RECN having made a new 13-week low last week, the probabilities favor that low being tested this week with a drop down to somewhere between 15.20 and 15.30, especially since the stock closed in the lower half of the day's trading range on Friday, suggesting further downside below Friday's low at 15.53 will be seen on Monday. Such a drop would be the opportunity to purchase the stock.
Purchases of RECN between 15.25 and 15.53 and using a stop loss at 14.80 and having an objective of 18.71 will offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
GCI Friday Closing Price - 11.43
GCI is a stock that was trading at $39 just 30 months ago (at $93 just 9 years ago) but dropped precipitously in a matter of 2 weeks down to 10.75, probably due to a change of fundamentals, and then continued lower in a downtrend to a low of 7.30 that was seen the last week of October 2016. Since then, the stock has been in the process of building a new bottom, having already seen 2 successful retest of the 7.30 low. Nine weeks ago the stock made a new 13-month high with a spike up rally, suggesting that the bottom has been built and that the bulls are likely to have control for the next few months.
For the past 7 weeks, GCI has been trading sideways between 10.90 and 12.35 but the sideways trading range is being seen as the flag of a bullish flag formation on the monthly chart, with the flagpole being the 1-month rally from 8.42 to 12.84 and the flag the trading range mentioned above. A break above the top of the flag at 12.35 would offer an upside objective of 15.32.
The interesting part of the GCI chart is that there is very little resistance above until the double top at 17.91/17.72 that was built after the stock rebounded from the drop down to 7.30, meaning that the bulls have a lot of open air above if and when they are truly in control.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, GCI shows minor resistance at 12.39, at 14.34 and then minor to perhaps decent at the original gap from June 2015 at 14.75. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 16.00 and then decent to possibly strong at 17.72/17.91.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, GCI shows pivotal support at the bottom of the flag formation at 12.90. Below that level, there is no support until 9.30 is reached.
GCI has built a decent bottom formation over the past 30 months and the recent action the past 2 months is strongly short-term bullish. In addition, the stock is close to a strong and pivotal support level that should only be broken if negative news comes out.
Purchases of GCI at Friday's close at 11.42 and using a 10.80 stop loss and having at least a 15.32 objective will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
Last Week's mention of WDC at 78.87 remains viable but unlikely to be seen this week.
|
Updates
|
Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AMZN made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1229.14 will be seen this week. It is interesting to note that on Friday the stock was $244 dollars above the 50-week MA and that is the largest run above the MA line since the rally began in January 2015. During this run, the stock has generated 5 peaks above the MA line and they have been $115, $212, $174, $205, and $226, meaning that from only that point of view, the stock should be starting to head lower soon. From those peaks, corrections of at least 14% and all the way up to 32% were seen. Using the minimum correction, a drop back down to $1056 can occur. Short-term pivotal support is found at 1160.55. Nonetheless, a daily close below 1195.83 would give a failure signal, suggesting that a correction might be starting. ARNA generated a strong spike up rally this past week and made a new 30-month high at 41.92, likely based on the upgrade from Wells Fargo that gave a $53 objective. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above 41.92 is expected to be seen this week. To the upside, there is no intraweek resistance of consequence until 47.40 is reached. Above that level, there is a bit stronger resistance at 49.05 and then decent to perhaps strong at 51.20. On a weekly closing basis though, there are decent and multiple resistances between 45.30 and 46.30 that will be difficult to break at present. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, support is minor to perhaps decent between 38.20 and 39.00 and decent to perhaps strong between 32.60 and 33.00. On a weekly closing basis, support is now strong at 34.20. Probabilities favor the bulls. BHTG made a new 5-week spike up high that negated all the selling interest seen during that period of time. The stock generated a buy signal on the daily closing chart, having generated a confirmed close above the previous high daily close at 5.15. In addition, the stock closed above the 200-day MA on Tuesday, currently at 4.60, and confirmed the break with 3 additional closes above the line, suggesting that the downtrend seen since August is now over. On a possibly negative note, the bulls were unable to break above the minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance at 5.48 that was a spike high seen on November 27th. Then again, the stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above 5.48 is expected to be seen and if that occurs, further and stronger confirmation of a turn-around will be given. Next level of resistance above 5.48 will be the 5.80-5.90 level where a minor intraweek high is found at 5.90 that is further strengthened by the 100-day MA, currently at 5.80. Above that level, there is further and somewhat pivotal resistance at 6.30 that if broken would suggest the previous uptrend has resumed. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek support is found at 5.01 and then important and pivotal support is found between 4.55 and 4.75. Probabilities favor the bulls. CLF broke above the 200-week MA, currently at 7.40, for the second time in the last 5+ years. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 8.13 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, it must be mentioned that the stock broke above the 200-week MA in February for 2 weeks in a row but then failed to follow through and caused the stock to drop all the way down to 5.56 16-weeks later. As such, this 2nd breakout needs further confirmation before the bulls get aboard in a strong way. A break above the spike high seen in September at 8.77 would be confirmation that the previous 13-month uptrend seen between January 2016 and February 2017 has resumed. Such a resumption of the uptrend would offer a $14-$15 objective. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, minor support is found at 7.55 and at 7.20 and then pivotal at 6.95, which is an area that also includes the 200-day MA. The bulls were able to get above the minor to decent resistance at 8.00, meaning that there is no resistance above until 8.55-8.77 and suggesting that the breakout is real. By the same token, the bulls are committed to getting above 8.77 this week or face some new selling interest. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG generated a second in a row negative reversal, having made a 5-week high but then closing in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .84 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the same thing happened last week and no follow through to the downside was seen, meaning that the bears are no longer in total control of the stocks. The stock is now showing a double bottom on the intraweek chart at .73 which has not yet been tested successfully and it is likely that this week's move below .84 will be such a needed/required retest. Minor to decent intraweek support is found at .80 that is likely to be seen but not broken. The stock has now spent 2 months trading in this area between .73 and .90, suggesting that a strong bottom may have been built and from which a concerted rally can occur. Pivotal resistance is found at 1.00 that if broken would be a sign that the worst of the 10-month downtrend is over. On a longer term positive note, the bears were unable to break the previous and major intraweek low at .68 cents, meaning that the minor but evident 56-month uptrend remains unbroken. Probabilities favor the bears this week for a drop down to the .80 level but thereafter the probabilities favor the bulls. FCEL generated an uneventful week, trading slightly above the previous week's high and generating a small green weekly close but near the lows of the week, leaving the traders without any new information about what the stock will do this week. Nonetheless, this coming week is likely to be short-term decisive, given that the company reports earnings on Thursday before the open and earnings are expected to be better than last year (-$.20 vs last year's -$.41). If that occurs, it will give the bulls new ammunition to shoot for the upgrade objective of $3 that was given by Cowen % Co. on August 13th. Pivotal and decent intraweek support is found at 1.50 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA that is currently at 1.55. It is likely that the short-term objective of the traders is to once again test that line and if it holds again (as it did on November 15th and 20th) that a rush of new buying interest will occur and that an uptrend of consequence begin. Pivotal resistance is presently found at 1.93 that if broken would suggest the bulls are back in control. GS generated an uneventful week even though a green weekly close was generated. The green close was by only $.76 cents but the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 253.22 will be seen this week. On a week where the indexes spiked up, the action in the stock had to be disappointing. On a possible positive note for the bears, the stock did get above the previous week's high, meaning that if the stock goes below last week's low this week that a needed/required retest of the all-time high at 262.13 will have occurred. This week the earnings reports on financial companies begin with JPM and WFC reporting on Friday. The company does not report until the following Wednesday but may take some direction from the earnings reports this week. Pivotal support is found at 252.91 that not only represents the low seen the last 16 trading days but also represents the previous all-time daily and weekly closing high at 252.89. It is unlikely that level will be broken this week, suggesting this coming week the stock is likely to trade sideways with perhaps a slight bearish tone. A rally above last week's high at 259.72 would give the bulls the edge. Probabilities favor the bears this week but only for a slight drop. MNK generated an uneventful inside week even though a green weekly close occurred. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 22.61 is expected to be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there is no support below until 20.93 is reached but if that occurs much of the recent bull support would be negated. On a daily closing basis though, there is support at 22.45, which was the level where the recent mini breakout to the upside occurred, meaning that if the bulls want to keep the short-term rally alive, they need to keep the stock closing above that level. A daily close below 21.25 would be a decent negative sign. Intraweek resistance is now found at 24.80 that if broken would suggest the gap up at 26.91 would be tested. The probabilities very slightly favor the bulls but the inability to take the stock further to the upside last week was disappointing.
|
1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .143 (new price 1.72). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .84. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 24.23. Stock closed on Friday at 40.84. 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.13. 5) GS - Averaged short at 261.085 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 262.35. Stock closed on Friday at 255.52. 6) SLCA - Liquidated at 37.11. Averaged long at 27.03. Profit on the trade of $3024 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions. 7) MNK - Averaged long at 35.754 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.90. 9) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.21. 10) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss now at 32.50. Stock closed on Friday at 40.84. 11) AMZN - Shorted at 987.95. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1229.14 12) AMZN - Shorted at 1214.27. Covered shorts at 1206.70. Profit on the trade of 278,50 per 50 shares minus commissions. 13) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.72. 14) AMZN - Shorted at 1217.14. Covered shorts at 1210.63. Profit on the trade of 325.50 (per 50 shares) minus commissions. 15) AMZN - Shorted at 1215.80. Covered shorts at 1217.35. Loss on the trade of $77.50 per 50 shares plus commissions. 16) SHOP - Shorted at 109.89. Covered shorts at 110.35. Loss on the trade of $46 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|