Issue #554
December 10, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Buy the Anticipation and Sell the News?

DOW Friday closing price - 24329
SPX Friday closing price - 2651
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6840

The DOW and the SPX continued their upward climb, having generated yet another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high last week. Nonetheless, the overall market is starting to show mixed results, given that the NASDAQ has now generated 2 red weekly closes in a row and failed to make any new all-time intraweek high for that same period of time. The mixed action does suggest that the indexes may be reaching levels that cannot be maintained much longer.

The mixed results came on a week where the bulls got everything they wanted and had anticipated would occur, in the form of the Tax Reform bill being passed in the Senate. Off of the news, the indexes opened sharply higher on Monday but there was no follow through to the upside after the first 30 minutes of trading and for the next 3 days the indexes traded lower and in the red below the previous week's close before any recovery was seen. The action suggested that the news may have already been factored into the price and that the adage of "buy the anticipation and sell the news" might once again come true.

Based on the repeatedly seen habit this year of buying all dips, the bulls managed to rally the indexes at the end of the week and generate a green weekly close in the DOW and the SPX but no new highs above Monday's high were made, meaning that for the first time in several months there are now doubts among the bulls about whether the momentum to the upside will continue or whether a top to this rally may be in the making.

There are no potential positive catalysts left in the economic or Trump Presidency calendar this month, meaning that the bulls can no longer depend on momentum or positive anticipation to support further upside. Nonetheless, December has a history of being a positive (green) month and without any negative catalysts, the probabilities favor the indexes remaining supported until after the New Year, though unlikely to generate much upward movement as December has generally been a "slow" month.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, only the NASDAQ shows resistance at the all-time high at 6914. Nonetheless and on the intraday chart, there is minor resistance at 6888 and a bit stronger at 6900. The DOW and the SPX do not show any resistance on the weekly chart but do show some resistance at 24327 and at 2657 on the intraday chart. By the same token, all indexes closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that new all-time highs are more probable than not.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, all indexes will show support at last week's lows (DOW at 24101, SPX at 2624, and NAZ at 6734). Evidently, a break below last week's lows based on the positive news that came out this past week would be a sign of weakness, especially after they came after the good news was released. Below those levels, there is further support in the DOW at 23921, in the SPX at 2605, and in the NASDAQ at 6667. A break of those levels would be a sell signal.

This coming week will likely pivot on whether the Fed raises interest rates this month or not (decision comes out on Wednesday at 2:00pm). With 92% of the traders believing that interest rates will be raised, it is unlikely that raising of rates will have much of an impact. Nonetheless, raising rates is not usually a positive, meaning the decision to raise rates is more likely to cause the market to react negatively (though likely in a minor way), especially since there is nothing left on the positive side to anticipate. On the other side of the coin, if the Fed says anything concrete about how many times they expect to raise rates in 2018 and it is a high number (for example 4 times), then it would have a strong negative reaction. If they say only once or twice it would be seen as a positive.

The probabilities still favor the bulls this week but there are several reasons to believe that the action in the index market will continue to slow down for the next 3 weeks and that some selling could occur due to the end of the year book squaring. In addition, the action seen in the index market this past year has quite a few similarities with what was seen in 1999 and that year the DOW closed on the highs of the month in December and in January the index has a negative reversal month and a 17% correction ensued in the first 3 months of the year. Certainly what has happened in the last 12 months strongly suggests that a strong correction is "just around the corner".

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Now that the anticipation of the Tax Reform bill becoming a reality has passed and the reaction seen, it is now likely and probable that the market in general will return to chart trading support and resistance levels.

With that thought in mind, I looked at over 80 stocks this weekend trying to find some trades that could be done. By the same token, December is not likely to be a big month on either side of the coin (buying or selling) and as such, my search was more for stocks that had a clear short-term chart objectives as well as support levels that could be depended on to be traded in a low volatility environment. Simply stated, stocks that were not likely to make any long term statements.

I found 2 stocks that fulfilled those guidelines for a trade at this time but in my perusal of the 80 stocks I did find an additional 10 stocks that are likely to make important moves in January and as such, I will list them below so that you can follow their paths knowing where a buy or a sell should occur. It is unlikely those additional 10 stocks will reach desired entry points this week or even during the next couple of weeks, though there is 1 that might.

PURCHASES

WDC Friday Closing Price 81.47

WDC broke above the 200-week MA in January, currently at 78.30, and has been trading above the line since then. The uptrend at that time kept the stock heading higher but on a backing and filling basis until the high at 95.77 was reached in July. Since then, the stock has been on a short-term downtrend and 2 weeks ago it got back down to the MA, seemingly fulfilling the immediate downside objective of the short-term downtrend.

WDC generated a positive reversal week last week, having made a new 8-month low at 76.59 and then turning around to close in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high 81.68 will be seen this week.

WDC had gapped down on November 27th due to a downgrade from overweight to equal weight by Morgan Stanley, which in effect caused the stock to drop down to the 200-week MA, but the downgrade simply stated that further upside was unlikely to be seen, not that the stock was a sell. As such and with the positive reversal seen last week, it is highly likely that the traders will look to close the gap between 92.25 and 88.33 and keep the stock in a sideways trading range that has been seen over the past 8-months (between $77 and $92), especially for the next few weeks during Xmas until the index traders face some new decisions to be made in January.

WDC gapped up on Friday between 78.86 and 79.42 and there was no news catalyst for the gap, meaning that the probabilities favor the gap being closed at some point this week, likely after a first surge to the upside on Monday.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, WDC shows important and pivotal support at the recent 76.59 low. Nonetheless, there is a spike low at 78.31 that was seen in August that should work as support now, especially considering that a drop down to that level would close the gap that was seen on Friday.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, WDC shows minor and old resistance (from January) at 81.69 but given that Friday's high was 81.68, that resistance should be broken on Monday. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 84.29, minor again at 85.94 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 86.05, that was broken 2 days after the downgrade by MS came out. That line will be an obstacle to overcome and as such will be considered a viable and highly likely to be reached objective but a level that could prevent further upside. Above that level, there is minor to decent resistance at 88.00 and decent between 92.13 and 92.50, which would close the gap that occurred on November 27th.

WDC now has a high probability of at least retesting the 200-day MA to see if the break of the line has legs to it or not. If the line does get broken, a rally up to close the gap up at 92.25 would then likely occur.

Purchases of WDC at 78.87 and using a stop loss at 76.49 and having a minimum objective of 86.05 will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio with a decent possibility of the stock continuing higher to 92.25, which in turn would make the risk/reward ratio a high 9.7-1.

My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

RECN Friday Closing Price - 15.50

RECN was in a 5-year uptrend from the low seen in November 2011 at 8.26 to the high seen last December at 19.80. Nonetheless and likely from negative earnings reports (speculating but did not check), the stock got into a mid-term downtrend that ended in September with a low of 12.05. The downtrend did break the long term uptrend, meaning that at this time the stock is likely in a sideways trend.

RECN generated a strong recovery rally after the 12.05 low was made, given that it rallied up to 15.90 in just 5 weeks (33% in value) and in the process got above the 200-week MA, currently at 15.25, which a line that has been proven to be relatively (not fully) indicative over the years the stock has been trading.

The rally continued after a small 2 week pause at the MA line with further upside and a 16.80 high that was seen 2 weeks ago. Nonetheless, last week the bulls were unable to generate any further upside after the company announced that the acquisition of Accretive Solutions Inc. had been finalized/fulfilled totally, suggesting that the anticipatory benefits of that acquisition were over and that the traders would return to chart trading.

From a purely chart point of view, RECN is showing a strong short-term uptrend in which last week's negative move down is likely just to retest the 200-week MA before attempting to resume the uptrend. The stock is presently showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the 13-week rally from 12.05 to 16.80 and the flag the trading range seen the past 8 weeks between 14.65 and 16.80.

RECN did close on the lows of the week last week and further downside below last week's low at 15.45 is expected to be seen. The 200-week MA, currently 15.25, is the likely objective on a weekly closing basis but on an intraweek basis the stock could get down as low as the bottom of the flag at 14.65. The objective of the flag formation if the top of the flag at 16.80 is broken is 19.40. In looking at the weekly chart for the past 3 years, it suggests that the spike highs at 18.54 and at 1871, seen in Feb2015 and Nov2015 are viable and likely objectives for the stock.

Purchases of RECN between 14.70 and 15.30 and using a stop loss at 14.55 and having an upside objective of at least 18.54 will offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

STOCKS TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR

SALES

HOT above $78
BABA above $185
COF above $97
PRAA above $38
AKAM above $60
EDC above $120

PURCHASES

INAP below 12.50
LNG below 43.00
DIOD below 24.50

I will give detailed mentions on these stocks if and when the desired entry points get reached or neared, which is unlikely to happen this month.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AMZN followed through to the previous week's negative reversal with a lower low and another red weekly close. Nonetheless, the stock did rally at the end of the week to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1175.20 will be seen this week. If that does occur, it would set the chart up for either continuation of the uptrend or the required/needed retest of the all-time high at 1213.41 before a correction of more consequence would occur. The latter is likely the most probable but it would require the indexes to not resume their uptrend (especially the NAZ). To the upside and on intraweek basis, there is minor resistance at 1179.65 and then nothing until the all-time high is reached. The resistance at 1179.65 is not strong enough to be depended upon but with $34 between that resistance and the all-time high, it is also not highly likely to generate enough buying interest to go up to the all-time high if broken. Pivotal support is now found at last week's low at 1124.74 that if broken would also mean that the 200 60-minute MA would be broken as well and that is a line that has not been broken for 6 weeks. There is some minor intraday support at 1136.08 that if broken might be pivotal as that is where the MA is currently at. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week, at least at the beginning of the week.

ARNA generated an indicative week given that the 200-week MA was in play and the bulls and the bears were likely to battle over it. The bulls ended up winning the battle as Friday's close above last week's close at 30.75 and above last week's high at 31.75 confirms the break of the 200-week MA, currently at 30.60, and the strength the bulls presently have. The next level of intraweek resistance is at 34.70. Nonetheless, that area also has a previous low weekly close at 34.20 that is quite important given that it was a 31-month low weekly close (between May 2012 and December 2014) and a level that generated a rally back up to 62.80 before it got broken to the downside in August 2015 and that signaled the downtrend that lasted 2+ years and that only got broken last week to the upside. Simply stated, a close above that level on a weekly closing basis would suggest the stock is now on a midterm uptrend (not only a short-term one) and that a rally up to the $50 level would then ensue. Nonetheless, the 34.20 level on a weekly closing basis is pivotal and offers a different kind of resistance than the 200-week MA. The 200-week MA is a long-term trend indicator and all the fundamental positives that have occurred the last few months strongly suggested the line would be broken sooner or later. The 34.20 level is a level that differentiates whether the stock is now on a mid-term uptrend or now is a sideways trend (like between $30 and $35). The action seen today is confirmation that the long-term downtrend is over. Now the traders will turn their attention to the resistance levels above and be watchful for any action or news that could derail this breakout (none expected). Pivotal support is now found at 29.54 but the intraday chart shows some short-term pivotal support at 31.06. Probabilities favor the bulls.

BHTG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 18-week low at 4.50 and then closing in the green (for a second week in a row) and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.19 will be seen this week. More importantly, the stock tested successfully the 200-day MA, currently at 4.48, suggesting that all of the downside agenda has now been fulfilled and that the uptrend will resume. It should also be mentioned that there is now a double bottom at 4.55/4.50 that should not be broken without a negative catalyst. Pivotal resistance is now found at the previous week's high at 5.48 that if broken would open the door for a rally up to the $6 demilitarized zone. Nonetheless, and looking at the weekly chart, above 5.48 there is only minor resistance at 6.30 and then nothing until minor to decent resistance at 7.65. As such, if a bottom to this recent short-term downtrend has been found, it is strongly possible that a substantial rally will occur over the next few weeks. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CAT made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 145.19 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and just like with the index market, the high was made on Monday and it was followed by weakness on the next 3 days before a recovery rally occurred. As such, the same situation as commented on above on the DOW is likely to apply to the stock. By the same token, the stock seems to be outperforming the market at this time and strong consideration should be given to covering the short positions as there is little on the charts that suggest that a top may be found soon. If for no other reason than the $150 level should now become a psychological magnet. Short-term pivotal support is now found at 139.19 that if broken this week would be a good reason to hold on to the short positions. It is unlikely that will happen. A rally above last week's high at 145.17 would not be a concrete reason to consider covering the short positions.

CLF issued $675 million in debt to prefund the expected investment in the Port of Toledo hot briquette iron plant. The move caused the debt rating to go from stable to negative and brought about a drop to the important and pivotal daily closing support at 6.00. Nonetheless, the day after the news came out the stock started to recover and by Friday the stock had gotten back up to within 20% of the high made right after the news came out, suggesting that the buying interest remains strong at the $6 level. The stock closed on the highs of the day on Friday, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 6.41 will be seen on Monday. The news caused a gap to occur between 6.73 and 6.50 to occur and if the gap is closed it will negate the negative news. To the upside and on an intraweek basis, there is minor resistance at 6.66 and then nothing until 6.95. Further and pivotal resistance is found at 7.08 that also includes the 200-day MA, currently at 7.19 but coming down fast. Short term pivotal support is found at 5.97. Probabilities are 50-50 at this point.

ENG generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the day, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .85 will be seen this week. If the stock does go above last week's high this week, it will make last week's low at .75 into a successful retest of the 4+-year low at .73, seen 3 weeks ago. The stock now show a potential double bottom at .81 on the weekly closing chart, much like what was seen 22 months ago at .77 and .81 and from which a rally to 1.42 occurred thereafter over a period of 8 weeks. A daily or weekly close above .89 would confirm the double bottom and likely bring in new buying interest. Pivotal support is now found at .73/.75. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

FCEL made a new 3-week high last week and generated the largest intraweek rally week seen in the past 12-days and the second largest seen in the past 53 weeks. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2.10 is expected to be seen this week. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 2.26, a bit stronger at 2.30 and mid-term pivotal at 2.49. Minor intraweek support is found at 1.92 and slightly stronger at 1.85 and then nothing until 1.64. With the positive news that came out 2 weeks ago, the successful retest of the 200-day MA on November 15th and the 3 weeks of backing and filling seen since, the chart suggests the stock is now poised to resume its mid-term uptrend with the only question being whether it does it immediately or a bit more backing and filling between 2.00 and 2.30 will occur first. Probabilities favor the bulls.

GS got up to within 25 points of the all-time high at 255.15 but then fell back to close still in the green but with small gains above the previous week's close, meaning that the bulls did not accomplish making any kind of statement. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 254.90 than below last week's low at 244.40, but the stock finds itself mimicking the indexes but with less reasons to rally than the indexes themselves, due to the recent weakness and support levels that were broken. Resistance is found at last week's high and at the all-time high. Pivotal support is found at 244.40 that if broken would suggest a drop down to $235 would be seen. The possibility of a double top is strong and therefore the bulls are the ones that have to prove an ability to generate further buying interest.

MNK continued to trade sideways as it has done for the past 4 weeks, with neither the bulls nor the bears accomplishing anything this past week. The stock did close near the highs of the week, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 22.50 than below last week's low at 20.93 but unless the recent high at 23.00 or the recent low at 20.25 get broken, the chart picture will continue to be "on hold". The chart remains tilted to the bearish side due to the inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 31.70 to 19.00 and the flag being the trading range back up to 23.00 that has been seen the last few weeks. A break below 19.00 would offer an $11 downside objective. By the same token, the 3 out of the past 4 weeks green weekly closes suggest that there is more buying interest at $20 than selling interest. A intraweek break above 23.00 or a daily close above 22.45 would suggest a rally to the gap area up at 26.91 would likely be seen. The short-term chart is tilted in favor of the bulls, meaning the probabilities favor the upside this week.

SLCA generated the 4th red weekly close in a row as well as making a new 4-week intraweek low but in spite of the stock having dropped/corrected 15% in value on an intraweek basis, the bulls have only accomplished a 6% drop based on the weekly close, suggesting that the weakness seen is likely only temporary. The underlying factor that has been offering selling pressure to the stock is the 200-day MA, currently at 35.25 and the 200-week MA, currently at 36.05. Both of these lines are indicative of trend and so far the bulls have not had enough fundamental reasons to break the lines convincingly. By the same token, the fact they continue to "hang around the lines", suggests the traders believe the probability of breaking them is stronger than the probability of the stock continuing in a downtrend. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 35.00 than below last week's low at 31.14, which in turn also suggests that last week's low is now an important and likely pivotal support. Pivotal resistance is now found at the most recent high at 35.00, which does include the 200-day MA. A break of that level and a close above 35.25 would be a strong sign that the bulls are back in control. Probabilities favor the bulls but slightly.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .168 (new price 2.02).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .84.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 31.81.

4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.41.

5) GS - Shorted at 250.68. Stop loss now at 255.35. Stock closed on Friday at 250.35.

6) SLCA - Averaged long at 27.03 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.29.

7) CAT - Averaged short at 133.95 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 143.86.

8) MNK - Averaged long at 35.754 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.31.

9) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. Stop loss at 4.45. Stock closed on Friday at 5.08.

10) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss now at 29.44. Stock closed on Friday at 31.82.

12) AMZN - Shorted at 987.95. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1162.00.

13) AMZN - Shorted at 1172.10. Covered shorts at 1159.76. Profit on the trade of $617 per 50 shares minus commissions.

14) SLCA - Purchased at 32.48. Liquidated at 32.96. Profit on the trade of $48 per 100 shares minus commissions.

15) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.60.

16) SLCA - Purchased at 31.96. Liquidated at 31.65. Loss on the trade of $31 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Previous Newsletters

View Aug 06, 2017 Newsletter

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View Aug 20, 2017 Newsletter

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View Sep 03, 2017 Newsletter

View Sep 17, 2017 Newsletter

View Sep 24, 2017 Newsletter

View Oct 08, 2017 Newsletter

View Oct 15, 2017 Newsletter

View Oct 22, 2017 Newsletter

View Oct 29, 2017 Newsletter

View Nov 05, 2017 Newsletter

View Nov 12, 2017 Newsletter

View Nov 19, 2017 Newsletter

View Nov 26, 2017 Newsletter

View Dec 03, 2017 Newsletter

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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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