Issue #553 ![]() December 3, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Indexes Accelerate Rally!
DOW Friday closing price - 24231
The DOW and the SPX accelerated their rate of ascent this past week (due to the potential passing of the Tax Reform bill that was being voted in Congress), having made new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs . Banks and other pockets of the market that could benefit from improving economic conditions, lower regulations and taxes as well as higher interest rates were the stocks that rallied the most. Nonetheless, not everything was rosy this past week as traders fled Tech stocks and moved to those companies most likely to get a benefit from a lower corporate tax rate, meaning that the leadership of the market shifted, causing the NASDAQ to be the only index that generated a red weekly close.
On Friday night (after the close of the market) the Tax Reform bill was passed by Congress, suggesting the indexes will open substantially higher on Monday as Corporate profits are likely to increase strongly with the lower tax rate (20% vs the previous 35%). The lower tax rate should mean higher returns/profits, higher dividends, better product prices (therefore an increase of sales), as well as lower costs of doing business. The only question that will now be asked is "how much of this has already been factored into the market given that the DOW as already rallied 23.5% since Trump took office?" and will this become the classic adage of "buy the anticipation and sell the fact?" In addition, questions will now begin to be asked about how much the future market will be affected by the $1.5 Trillion additional deficit the U.S. will now have.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, only the NASDAQ shows resistance at last week's all-time high at 6914. The other indexes have no resistance above.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, all indexes will show "pivotal" support at the lows made 3 weeks ago (DOW at 23242, SPX at 2557, and NAZ at 6667). A break of those lows after the Tax Reform bill was passed would be a clear signal of a top having been made. Nonetheless, Friday's lows (DOW at 23921, SPX at 2605, and NAZ at 6737) should also be meaningful support as those lows were made just prior to the bill being passed and breaking those would mean the passing of the bill did not change anything.
With the "new" fundamental picture in place and nothing more to be achieved to stimulate the economy, the game of "anticipating what is to come" will start anew. The initial reaction that will be seen this coming week is likely to be to the upside without any price objective, psychological or otherwise. Nonetheless, once that initial reaction is over (probably no later than Wednesday), the traders will likely get back to "trading" the market and no longer automatically buying all dips given that there is nothing "more" that can be achieved. As such, the traders will start the week anticipating higher prices but will then be sensitive to chart movement. A return to peaks and valleys trading is likely to occur.
There is nothing more than I can say at this time. The probabilities strongly favor the bulls. The levels to watch to the downside are now clearly defined (both short-term and longer-term) and now it is all about seeing what happens this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Tas Reform Bill passed and the probabilities favor the market opening substantially higher. Nonetheless, most (if not all) of the rally seen since November of last year (23.5% in the DOW) has been due to anticipation of this occurring, meaning that it is not known how much of the Tax Reform benefits has already been factored into the present prices. As such, it is possible that the adage about "buy the anticipation and sell the fact" could come into play this week.
As such, it is impossible as of this writing to evaluate or program the direction the market will take until after the initial and likely positive reaction to the seen this week. That means that I have no mentions on this newsletter.
The positive though, is that now that the anticipation is over and that will no longer drive the market, the traders are likely to get back to chart trading after the initial reaction. That means that in next week's newsletter once again consistent mentions will be given based on what support and resistance levels.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017, as of 11/1 Loss of $6662 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for November per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
AMZN (short) $154 (per 50 shares) AMZN (short) $34 (per 50 shares) AMZN (short) $702 (per 50 shares) AMZN (short) $747 GS (short) $660 Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for October, per 100 shares and after commissions $2297 Closed out losing trades for November per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
MNK (long) $40
AMZN (short) $57 (per 50 shares) AMZN (short) $41 (per 50 shares) GS (short) 103 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. NONE Total Loss for November, per 100 shares, including commissions $241 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 11/30
SLCA (long) $283
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
ARNA (long) $90 ARNA(long) $296 SLCA (long) $532 CLF (long) $78 Total $1539 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 11/30
CAT (short) $408
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
BHTG (long) $35 Total $7933 Status of trades for month of November per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Loss of $4338
Status of account/portfolio for 2017, as of 11/30Loss of $11,000 using 100 shares traded per mention.
The following update comments on held stocks are made based on the chart action seen in each stock up until Friday of last week. Nonetheless, the Tax Reform bill that was passed is a potential "monkey wrench" for some stocks, meaning that the comments this week need to be taken with a "grain of salt" as it is unknown to me at this time as to which stocks will react and which won't. AMZN generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time intraweek high at 1213.41 and the closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1145.19 will be seen this week. On Friday, the stock also generated a negative reversal day as well as a close near the lows of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 1152.00. If that does occur, Friday's high at 1179.65 will become resistance. If it does not happen, then resistance is at the all-time high at 1213.41. Below 1145.91 there is no support of any consequence until 1086.87 is reached. Probabilities favor the bears this week. ARNA generated another new 27 month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 31.75 is likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless, one of the main objectives was reached this week, given that the stock got up to and closed slightly above the 200-week MA, currently at 30.60 (closed at 30.75), and as such the action this coming week is likely to be indicative as to whether the stock is ready to break the downtrend the stock has been on since May 2014 or a small correction to occur. The MA had not been reached and much less broken for the past 34 months and broken only once for 1 week for the past 40 months, meaning that the close next Friday will likely be indicative of the short-term outlook for the stock. Normally, a long term trend line is not broken the first time around without some fundamental catalyst. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until 34.70 is reached, meaning that the stock could continue to run to the upside during the week before any chart selling interest is seen. Nonetheless, and based exclusively on the chart, the probabilities presently favor the stock closing in the red next Friday. Short-term support is now found at last week's low at 28.17. A break of that level this week will give the bears the short-term edge. Probabilities favor the bulls for the first few days of the week but toward the end of the week the action should reflect the midterm views of the traders, which suggest a correction from this level is likely to occur. BHTG generated follow through to the upside off of last week's close near the highs of the week, as well as a green close, suggesting that the worst of the recent downtrend might be over. In addition, the stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday, having gone below Thursday's low and then closing above Thursday's high, meaning that if the stock goes above Friday's high at 5.12 on Monday that a successful retest of the recent low at 4.55 will have occurred on the daily chart. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 5.48 that if broken would likely take the stock up to the 100-day MA, currently at 5.80. A daily close above 5.15 would generate a buy signal. On the weekly chart though, the stock would need to get above 6.30 to generate a buy signal. Support is now pivotal at 4.55. Probabilities favor the bulls. CAT made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 142.40 will be seen this week. Short-term support is now found at 136.89 that if broken would strongly suggest a top has been built. Probabilities favor the bulls, especially if the indexes continue higher (likely). The stop loss mentioned was triggered last week and unless there is some negative action in the stock, covering shorts should be considered. CLF made a new 6-week high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.00 will be seen this week. Minor resistance is found at 7.20 and minor to perhaps decent between 7.39 and 7.42, all of which are strengthened by the 200-day MA that is currently at 7.30. Above that level there is decent and pivotal resistance at 7.73 that includes the 200-week MA, currently at 7.75. Minor support is found at 6.66 and pivotal as 6.32. Probabilities favor the bulls this week for a rally up to at least the 7.30 level. ENG has now traded for 19 days between .76 and .89 with 80% of it being between .81 and .83, all based on a daily closing basis. What this means is that neither the bears nor the bulls have any kind of an edge right now. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday with an intraday low at .75 and a high at .90, meaning that whichever of those 2 levels get broken next, is likely to be the direction the stock heads to. Friday's low at .75 will be seen as the needed/required retest of the 22-month low at .75, meaning that a rally above .90 would be a strong sign that a bottom is now in place. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. FCEL made a new 12-day high at 1.93 but the bulls were unable to close the stock in the upper half of the week's trading range, leaving questions unanswered. Nonetheless, the reason for the rally up to 1.93 was an announcement of a multi-year deal with Toyota that should give the bulls' additional ammunition to restart the uptrend. Chart-wise, neither the bulls nor the bears accomplished anything of consequence this past week, at least on a weekly closing basis, meaning that everything remains as was stated the previous week. Resistance is now found at 1.97 and pivotal on a daily closing basis at 2.09. Support is now found between 1.56 and 1.60. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. GS generated a positive reversal week given the benefits to the financial industry that the Tax Reform bill will bring. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 250.79 is likely to be seen. The stock generated a new 4-month buy signal that is likely to push the stock up to test the all-time high weekly close at 252.89. It is interesting to note that on Thursday with the monthly close, the stock closed at 247.64, meaning that the previous all-time monthly close from October 2007 at 247.92 was not broken, meaning that if the stock generates a red monthly close at the end of December, a major resistance level will have been built in conjunction with the all-time high monthly close seen in February of this year at 248.06. The level to the downside to watch this week is 246.88 as a daily close below that level any day this week would give a failure signal that based on the passage of the Tax Reform bill would be a clear failure signal that would likely generate strong new selling. Resistance is found between last week's high at 250.79 and 251.76. A break of that area would suggest the all-time high at 255.25 will be tested. Any rally above 250.79 should give reason to consider covering the short positions. Probabilities favor the bulls. MNK made a new 4-week high this past week but the bulls were unable to generate confirmation on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the previous high weekly close at 22.38 and slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range. Nonetheless, this is now the 4th week in a row that the bears have not been able to generate any follow through to the downside, suggesting there is a slightly higher probability of going higher than lower. Intraweek resistance is found at 23.00 and intraweek support at 20.25. Whichever one is broken will likely generate follow through of some consequence. Above 23.00 there is no resistance until 26.91. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. SLCA made a new 4 week low and in the process closed the gap at 31.69 that was likely to be closed since it was not generated by a fundamental catalyst. Nonetheless, once the gap was closed the stock rallied to close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 34.17 will be seen this week. If that occurs, the probabilities favor the bulls taking the stock back up to the 200-week MA, currently at 36.00, and trying to break the line and resume the midterm uptrend as well as signal an end to the long-term downtrend. Oil got some positive news this week in the form of confirmation by OPEC that production cuts will continue to the upheld for another 3 months. As such, oil is likely to go higher and also likely to support further upside in the stock. Pivotal resistance is found at 36.55 that if broken would likely take the stock up to 37.14 and if that resistance level is broken, a rally up to the $40 level would likely be seen. Much depends on what oil does at the $62 level. Chart suggests that oil has a decent chance of continuing higher up to the $70-$75 level and if that occurs, the stock is likely to get up to the $40 level. Nonetheless, the chart of the stock suggests that somewhere between $36 and $40 a correction of some consequence will occur with $30 as the downside objective. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .144 (new price 1.69). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .81. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 30.75. 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.82. 5) GS - Covered shorts at 235.35. Averaged short at 242.52. Profit on the trade of $1434 per 100 shares (2 mentions) Minus commissions. 6) SLCA - Averaged long at 27.03 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.92. 7) CAT - Averaged short at 133.95 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 141.52. 8) MNK - Averaged long at 35.754 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.82. 9) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. Stop loss at 4.45. Stock closed on Friday at 5.07. 10) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss now at 24.23. Stock closed on Friday at 30.75. 12) AMZN - Shorted at 987.95. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1162.35. 13) AMZN - Shorted at 1212.86. Covered shorts at 1198.53. Profit on the trade of $716 per 50 shares minus commissions. 14) AMZN - Shorted at 1210.84. Covered shorts at 1195.65. Profit on the trade of 761.50 per 50 shares minus commissions. 15) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.60.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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