Issue #559 ![]() January 21, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Indexes Continue to Extend Rally but Volatility Shows Up!
DOW Friday closing price - 26071
The indexes continue the torrid run to the upside with the DOW adding 1.1% to the previous week's 2% and 2.7%, the SPX adding .9% to the previous week's 1.6% and 2.6% and the NASDAQ adding 1% to the previous week's 1.8% and 3.3%. All indexes once again closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW at 26153, SPX at 2810 and NAZ at 7335).
Nonetheless, volatility spiked up last week (VIX went from 9.52 to 12.81) and the rate of ascent (shown above) is slowing down, suggesting that selling interest is being found at these high levels. As it is, the market is showing its most overbought RSI rating since 1995 (23 years) and nearly 77% of those polled by the Investors Intelligent Sentiment Survey were bullish and that is the second highest rating in the 54 years the Survey has been in existence. Historically, market returns following such reading have been tepid at best. The highest reading in the history of the survey was in 1976 and over the subsequent year the SPX fell 11.5%.
The first week of earnings are now over and there were no big surprises in either direction, meaning that there was no negative catalyst to stop the rally. The second week is not all that well populated with earnings either but it is the recent leader of the market (the DOW) that will be receiving most of the earnings reports with HAL, P&G, TRV, GE, 3M, CAT, and HON reporting, meaning that interest is likely to be centered on that index this week. NFLX, one of the big 5 in the NASDAQ, will be reporting on Monday after the market closes, meaning that the traders may take some direction off of that report even though traders are not expecting it to have much of an effect given that 3 of the last 4 earnings in the stock did not "move the needle" very much.
One possible monkey wrench that could generate movement of consequence to the downside this week occurred on Friday evening when the Senate failed to pass a new budget and/or extension and the government shut down as of 12:01 am Saturday morning. A government shut down is not a big factor if it only lasts a few days but if it continues for longer it will definitely have a negative effect on the market. With both sides firmly entrenched in their positions and President Trump needing to be the one to resolve the issue but having stated that a government shut-down could be a "good thing", it is an issue for this week that cannot be factored into the evaluation at this time.
To the upside and for all the indexes, there is no resistance at all (psychological or otherwise), meaning that there are no levels where the bears can mount a unified push to stop the rally.
To the downside, last week's lows (DOW at 25702, SPX at 2768, and NASDAQ at 7205) have to be considered support as any sign that the rally is failing to continue will be seen as a negative. Below those lows though, a week ago Wednesday minor down day in all indexes is the only other support nearby and it is minor in nature but based on the torrid rally and overbought condition, if those supports are broken they are likely to generate new selling interest . In the DOW it is at 25256, in the SPX it is at 2736 and in the NASDAQ it is at 7111. Below those levels, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent but likely short-term pivotal support at 24719 and then nothing until 24101. In the SPX below 2735, there is minor to perhaps decent but likely short-term pivotal support at 2673. Below that level, there is minor support at 2652 and then rally ending support at 2605. The NASDAQ below 7111, shows minor to perhaps decent but likely short-term pivotal support at 6903. Below that level, there is likely rally ending support at 6734.
It is expected that the indexes will see more of the same this week as seen the last 3 weeks, meaning higher prices. With only 1 of the "biggies" reporting this week and the bulk of the DOW stocks reporting the following week, there is little other than the government shut down that will give the bears any new ammunition. The following week though, with AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL and PCLN reporting, it is expected that it will be a pivotal week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The market continues higher and at this moment there doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon that will change the direction. Nonetheless, the undervalued or overlooked mid-to-low cap and commodity based stocks seem to be gaining attention and participation, suggesting that the traders may change from the overvalued stocks to the undervalued stocks to continue the uptrend.
The purchase mentioned today fits those parameters.
PURCHASES
SN Friday Closing Price 5.46
SN is an exploration and production company that focuses on the acquisition and development of U.S. onshore unconventional oil and natural gas resources. With oil having broken out of a 4-year downtrend and looking to move higher, companies such as this one that are considered undervalued and at low prices have become attractive stocks to purchase.
SN traded as high as 38.95 just 3+ years ago but got into a downtrend when oil went south in price. The stock made a new all-time low at 2.06 just 2 years ago this January and from that low generated a bounce up to 14.37 that was seen a year ago. From January 2017 to October 2017 the stock was once again in a downtrend, having moved all the way down to 3.58, a low that was seen in October, but with oil prices moving up, the stock has seen some buying interest recently, having moved up to 6.19, a high that was seen just 2 weeks ago.
The chart of SN is showing an almost classic rounded bottom with 3 big time lows at 6.22 (Dec 2014), at 2.06 (Jan 2016), and at 3.58 (Oct 2017) and with the stock just a couple of weeks ago making a new 22-week high, the chart suggests the stock is ready to start a new uptrend.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, SN shows minor resistance at 5.77, minor to perhaps decent at 5.92 and decent at the recent 6-month high at 6.19. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 6.84 and decent at 7.65.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, SN shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 5.13 and decent as well as pivotal at 4.31.
SN recently got above the 200-day MA, currently at 5.75, when it rallied to 6.19 but given that it was the first attempt at the line after 8 months of trading below the line, the attempt failed and a drop back down to Friday's low at 5.21 occurred. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below 5.21 will be seen this week. By the same token, the stock bounced up to 5.48 at the end of the day on Friday, suggesting that buying interest is being seen.
The weekly chart of SN suggests that the stock could get down as low as the 2-point trend line that started at 3.58 in October, which is now currently at 4.87. Nonetheless, the daily chart and the bounce seen Friday, suggest that the minor support at 5.13 will not be broken, meaning that it is possible that no further downside will be seen.
The daily chart offers a short-term (2-4 weeks) objective of 7.65, if and when the stock can close above the 200-day MA convincingly. Nonetheless, the weekly chart suggests that the likely objective of this trade is $10 with a slight chance of the stock getting up as high as the 200-week MA that is currently at 11.40. Either way, this stock and the fundamental picture behind it, suggests it is a purchase with the only question being "what is the best entry point?".
Purchases of SN between 4.90 and 5.30 and using a stop loss at 4.66 and having a 7.65 objective will offer at least a 3.3-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
I am also planning to add positions to an existing held stock and the mention from last week remains viable:
WDC around 84.32 with a stop loss at 82.05. Objective is 92.25. It is a 3.5-1 risk/reward ratio.
BEN between 43.96 and Friday's close at 44.53 and using a stop loss at 42.96 and having a 50.00 objective will offer a 3.5-1 risk/reward ratio.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3 week low and the turning around to close in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 35.75 will be seen this week. In addition, the previous week's close at 34.95 will be considered a successful retest of the important weekly close support at 34.30 if another green weekly close is made next Friday. One of the positive catalysts this past week was the upgrade by Credit Suisse with a $44 objective, which is now the second upgrade in the last 5 weeks by 2 well respected firms. To the upside, there is very minor intraday resistance at 36.05 and then clear air above until 39.54. On the daily chart though, there is no resistance whatsoever until the recent high at 41.92 is reached. Above that level, there is no intraweek resistance until minor at 47.20. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is found at the recent high weekly close at 40.84 and then minor to decent between 45.00 and 45.30. To the downside, the 33.00/33.03 level is now considered important and pivotal support. The big key this week will be follow through to the upside and above the minor intraday resistance at 36.05. If the bulls are able to get that accomplished, a rally back up to the $40 will likely be seen in a swift manner. Probabilities favor the bulls. BHTG generated a red week and a close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.03 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the negative action was limited and the stock remains in a bullish flag formation, meaning that the chart outlook remains positive. Intraweek support of some consequence is found at 5.01 that if seen but not broken would not only keep the stock in the bullish flag but would also fulfill a drop down to a previous important spike low support at 5.01, seen the 2nd week of October. Below that level, there is no support until decent support is found at 4.75. Resistance remains at the now triple top at 5.48/5.49 that if broken would offer open air to 6.30. The objective of the flag if the bottom of the flag at 5.00 holds up is 6.58. It should be mentioned that even if the stock drops down to 4.75, a flag formation would remain in place but the objective would then be 6.33, which does coincide with the present resistance there. The overall chart and fundamental outlook remains positive with only the short-term gyrations in question. A drop down to 5.00 or down to 4.75 is the question this week. CCJ generated a red week with a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.49 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, it was an uneventful inside week that was more about chart building and backing and filling than about direction. The bears remains with a slight edge as the stock remains below the 200-day MA, currently at 9.73. Nonetheless, the short-term uptrend remains intact as every low daily close has been higher than the previous one for the past 15 weeks. On a daily closing basis, resistance is found at 9.72 and support at 9.55. Any close above or below those 2 levels is likely to generate further movement in that direction though neither of those 2 levels is longer term pivotal. A close above 9.86 or below 9.03 would be pivotal. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CLF generated an inside week with a red close at 8.49, which does suggest that it was simply a retest of the breakout that occurred the previous week when the stock broke above the weekly close resistance at 8.48. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 8.65 than below last week's low at 8.12. If that occurs, it will give the bulls another round of new ammunition with which to continue the uptrend. The stock tested successfully the minor but clearly defined support at 8.11 with a drop down to 8.12 on Tuesday and then likely tested that drop with a low of 8.15 on Friday. If the stock goes above Friday's high at 8.53 on Monday, those two lows will become successful retests and new buying will likely come in. To the upside and on an intraweek basis, there is minor resistance at 8.77 and then likely pivotal at 8.88. The chart shows another minor resistance at 9.06 but on the weekly chart there is no resistance above 8.88 until 10.90 is reached. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week as it seems that the chart is presently built for higher prices. ENG generated a new 8 week intraweek high and a new 12-week weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .96 will be seen this week. With the week's action, the low seen 2 weeks ago at .81 has become the required/needed retest on the weekly chart of the double bottom at .73. Mid-term pivotal resistance remains at 1.00 that is now highly likely to be seen this week. Above 1.00, there is minor resistance at 1.10 and then nothing until 1.24. Support is now found at .84 and at .87. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. FCEL generated a disappointing inside week with a red weekly close, meaning that the better than expected earnings report 2 weeks ago has failed to generate new buying of consequence. The stock closed very slightly (by 1 point) in the lower half of the week's trading range suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 1.82 than above last week's high at 2.03. Nonetheless, the chart is not near any strongly pivotal support level, meaning that the probabilities favor another uneventful week of trading. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, there is minor support at last week's low at 1.82 and then minor at 1.70 and pivotal at 1.66. To the upside, there is minor resistance at 2.10 and pivotal at 2.17. Probabilities favor another uneventful week. GCI made a new 17-month weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 12.21 will be seen this week. The stock still shows intraweek resistance at 12.37/12.39 from 7 weeks ago and from 15-months ago, respectively, but having made a multi-week weekly closing high on Friday, the probabilities favor that level being broken this week and continuing to the upside. Above 12.39 there is no resistance above until 14.42 and even though that resistance is considered minor, on a weekly closing basis there is minor to perhaps decent resistance between 14.02 and 14.22, meaning that it is a viable objective but one from where a correction could occur. To the downside, there is minor support at 11.58 and decent as well as pivotal support at 10.90. Having made a new weekly closing high, the 10.90 level should not be seen anymore, much less broken. A break above 12.37 and a weekly close above 12.40 next Friday, would make the 12.40 level decent support thereafter. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week. MNK bulls failed to follow through on the previous weeks close near the highs of the week, in spite of the continuing strength of the index market, and generated a red week with a close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 21.00 will be seen this week. The inability of the bulls to get above $25 for the past 8 weeks and test the gap area at 26.90 that was seen after the last earnings report has brought about renewed selling interest. The stock closed on Friday 9 points above the all-time low weekly close at 21.22, meaning that a green close next Friday would be seen as a possible double bottom, which if confirmed would give the bulls new ammunition. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, there is minor support at 20.93, minor again at 20.25 and decent at 19.00. It is evident that this coming week is likely to be pivotal for the stock as another red weekly close next Friday below 21.22 would be a new all-time weekly closing low and would likely generate new selling interest. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 23.00. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week. RENN 3 weeks ago spiked up above the 200-week MA, currently at 12.78, on the acquisition of a social app for communicating between truckers but the bulls were unable to close above the line on that Friday and all the gains made during the last 3 weeks have now been negated. Nonetheless, the stock had previous been on an uptrend since July of last year and just prior to the announcement, the stock had been trading above $10 with a weekly close at 10.39, suggesting that much further downside is unlikely to be seen. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 10.78 than above last week's high at 11.65 but given that there is weekly close support at 10.39, not only from a previous low weekly close but also from the 3-point trend line in place from the previous uptrend, it seems likely that either this week or the next a reversal back to the upside will be seen. On an intraweek basis, minor support is found at 10.12 and at 9.81 and then decent as well as longer term pivotal at 9.01. To the upside, there is minor resistance at 11.55, minor to decent at 11.98 and again at 12.50 and then nothing until 17.80. The chart looks bullish mid-term but it might take as much as 2 weeks to turn it back around. WDC generated a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing high on Friday and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 87.07 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and on the daily chart, the bulls did have problems with the 200-day MA, currently at 86.75, having closed on Thursday at 86.40 and then going above the line intraday on Friday but then closing in the red and near the lows of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 85.38. Intraweek support is found at 84.32 that is likely to be seen but not broken. If broken, the next support is found at 82.15. To the upside, minor resistance is found at 87.07, a bit stronger at 88.00 and then at the gap area at 88.33. Above that area, there is no resistance until 90.95. The stock is likely to see a pull back this week to 84.32 and perhaps even as low as 82.15 (not very likely) and then a return to test and likely break the MA line. The company reports earnings on Thursday after the close and that is likely to be a catalyst.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .16 (new price 1.92). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .90. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 2.94. Stock closed on Friday at 3.56 (new price (35.60). 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.49. 5) RENN - Purchased at 11.08. Stop loss at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.13. 6) CCJ - Purchased at 9.56. Averaged long at 9.585 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 9.05. Stock closed on Friday at 9.62. 7) MNK - Averaged long at 35.754 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.30. 9) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.06. 10) ARNA - Purchased at 33.06 and at 34.06. Averaged long at 29.093 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 32.50. Stock closed on Friday at 35.60. 11) BEN - Purchased at 44.91. Liquidated at 44.68. Loss on the trade of $23 per 100 shares plus commissions. 12) GCI - Purchased at 11.33. Stop loss at 10.93. Stock closed on Friday at 12.11. 13) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.92. 14) WDC - Purchased at 78.88. Stop loss now at 78.65. Stock closed on Friday at 85.60.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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