Issue #556
February 4, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Correction Started! Indexes Drop 4%.

DOW Friday closing price - 25520
SPX Friday closing price - 2762
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7240

The indexes generated the biggest correction seen in the last 12 months with the DOW falling 4.2%, the SPX falling 3.9% and the NASDAQ falling 3.6% in value. The indexes all closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week (DOW below 25490, SPX below 2759 and NAZ below 7238).

It is likely that the move down this week is just the start of a correction as there are no supports of consequence nearby where the bulls can gather to stop the slide and turn it around and there are no scheduled earnings or economic reports that could be positively catalytic that would give the bull's new ammunition to generate new buying.

In addition, and using the SPX as the index for the example, there has been a seasonal tendency to generate a correction of in the first quarter of the year. During the last 10 years and beginning with last year, here are the percentages of correction that occurred: 3.5%, 5.7%, 13.1%, 3.8% 5.8%, 7.6%, 10.8%, 7.9% and 17.2%. With last year being the shortest correction but the rally since then being the strongest since 1996, it is expected the correction will be anywhere from 10% to 15%, meaning a drop in the index to 2584 or even down to 2442.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 26338 and then decent to perhaps strong at 26616. The SPX shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 2839 and decent to perhaps strong at 2872. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 7433 and decent to perhaps strong at 7505.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows very minor support at 25256 and then minor to perhaps decent at 24708. The SPX shows very minor support at 2736 and then minor to perhaps decent at 2673. The NASDAQ shows very minor support at 7111 and then minor to perhaps decent at 6903.

The SPX generated a breakaway/runaway gap formation last week with the index gapping down on Monday between 2851 and 2839 and gapping down again on Friday between 2812 and 2808, which strongly suggests that this is not a correction that is likely to be negated on a short-term basis as so many other corrections during the past few years have. It also opens the door for further downside of some consequence to occur before any recovery rally is seen.

The first thing the traders will be looking at in the SPX is whether last month's low at 2682 gets broken or not. Over the past 20 years there has only been 1 occasion when the index closed on the highs of the month the previous month but did not follow through to the upside the subsequent month and then went on to break the previous month's low and that was in 2015 when the index corrected 15.2% before the uptrend resumed. As such, a break or no break of last month's low will be the first indicator to the traders whether this correction will be somewhat short-lived or not and whether it will be lenient or harsh.

The traders are going to have a very hard time with this correction given that support levels of consequence are not found nearby. As such, studying and evaluating the charts is difficult, meaning that the traders will come in without a game plan and will "wing it" while seeing what the other traders are doing. The reality is that most analysts do not believe that this is a major top, just a correction and as such will be looking to be buyers again at some point. Where that point is located is not yet known. First level to look at in the SPX is 2682, the 2nd level to look at is 2673 (minor to perhaps decent support) and if both of those are broken, the 100-day MA, currently at 2630 will be the next level considered as that line was tested once this year successfully and not broken. Such a line is likely to hold up if the bulls are to make a new attempt at the all-time highs within the next 3 months.

Probabilities favor the bears this week with the only question likely to be "how much downside occurs".

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

No new mentions in the newsletter. Did not have time to look at new charts due to long detailed chart evaluations done on held stocks. Will try to have some mentions in the message board tomorrow morning.

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2017, as of 1/1

Profit of $0 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for January per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

AMZN (short) $264.50 (per 50 shares)
AMZN (short) $311.50 (per 50 shares)
AMZN (short) $571.50 (per 50 shares)
AMZN (short) $525.50 (per 50 shares)
EBAY (long) $563
LVS (short) $22

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

SLCA (long) $1337 NONE

Total Profit for January, per 100 shares and after commissions $3595

Closed out losing trades for January per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

NFLX (short) $141
SHOP (short) $60
AMZN (short) $91.50 (per 50 shares)
AMZN (short) $52
AMZN (short) $49.50
GS (short) $261
BEN (long) $37
SN (long) 42

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

AMZN (short) $3904 (per 50 shares)
GS (short) $125

Total Loss for January, per 100 shares, including commissions $4763

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 1/31

ARNA (long) $830
WDC (long) $1286

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

ARNA (long) $150
ARNA(long) $374
BHTG (long) $118

Total $2758

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 1/31

CCJ (long) $75
RENN (long) $73

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

MNK (long) $900
CLF (long) $180
FCEL (long) $12
ENG (long) $10

Total $1250

Status of trades for month of January per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

Profit of $340

Status of account/portfolio for 2018, as of 1/31

Profit of $340 using 100 shares traded per mention.



Updates on Held Stocks

ARNA generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing in the green and above the previous week's high. The positive reversal will also be seen as a successful retest of the recent low at 33.03 if the stock follows through above last week's high at 40.81. Minor to decent intraweek resistance is found at 41.92 and then very minor at 44.20 and minor to decent again at 47.20. Support is now minor to decent at 35.10 and decent at 33.03. Probabilities favor the bulls.

BHTG continued to trade within the 4.90-5.49 area that it has traded in for the past 4 weeks. The stock did close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.90 will be seen this week. The stock shows decent intraweek support at 4.75 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 4.79. Below 4.75 there is support at 4.55 that is also strengthened by the 200-week MA, currently at 4.50. A drop down to 4.75 is expected to be seen this week with a small chance of it getting down to 4.55. Nonetheless, the fundamental picture for the stock remains positive and the chart picture is leaning to the bull side, meaning that adding positions between 4.55 and 4.76 should be considered.

CCJ made a new 11-week intraweek and weekly closing lows this past week but then rallied to close exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting an even chance that the stock will rally above last week's high at 9.43 or below last week's low at 8.79. The bulls do have a slight edge inasmuch as the weekly closing support at 9.10 from June of last year was not broken and the stock was able to rally in the face of the indexes having the strongest down week in over a year. The stock did close on the lows of the day and on Friday, suggesting further downside below Friday's low at 9.08 will be seen on Monday. Support is found at 8.90 that if it holds it will give the bulls some ammunition to turn the stock around and attack last week's high that if broken would suggest the worst is over. Above 9.43 there is no resistance until 9.74 is reached. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls.

CLF generated another negative week in which the 200-week MA, currently at 7.15 was broken convincingly, much like the stock did in February of last week when the line was broken to the upside for the first time in 6-years and then the break negated a 2 weeks later. The 200-week MA is a strong indicator of long-term trend and difficult to negate after so many years of trading below the line. Usually 2 or 3 attempts followed by failures are expected to be seen before the break of the trend occurs, especially when there have been no strong positive change of fundamentals. Nonetheless and in spite of the weakness seen the past 2 weeks, no previous intraweek support of importance has been broken (in other words no sell signal has been given on the weekly chart), suggesting that this recent break is just more required base and trend chart building. Important and pivotal support is found at 5.56 that if broken would be a strong sell signal. Nonetheless, there is some minor but likely indicative support between 6.40 and 6.22 that should hold up this week. If broken, the next support would be between 6.03 and 5.97 but if the stock gets down that low the probabilities would then start to favor the bears. The 2-point uptrend line that started 3 years ago at 1.20 is currently at 6.12, meaning that level could be seen but should not be broken. On a weekly closing basis though, that line is presently at Friday's close at 6.48, meaning that if the stock generates a green close next Friday, a 3-point trend line will be built that would likely give the bulls new and stronger ammunition. Pivotal resistance on the daily chart is found at 7.08 that if broken would suggest the worse is over. A 3rd close above the 200-week MA would now strongly suggest that the downtrend is over. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but the stock should reverse by the end of the week and a green weekly close occur next Friday.

COF generated a sell signal on the daily closing chart on Friday, having closed below the low daily close for the past 3 weeks at 103.41. The stock closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 101.51 will be seen this week. Like the index market, the stock has moved mostly straight up without building any support levels of consequence close-by below, suggesting that further downside of consequence could be seen if the indexes continue lower as expected. Minor support is found at 98.75 and then nothing until 86.56 is reached. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, the previous all-time high weekly close at 93.94 would be a viable downside target where buying might be found if the stock gets below 97.59. The stock is showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation with the breakaway gap being between 92.77 and 93.11 and the runaway gap being between 97.31 and 97.59, suggesting on the daily chart that a drop down to between 97.59 and 98.75 is what will be seen before the bulls step in to stop the drop. Resistance is now pivotal at Friday's high at 104.88. Probabilities favor the bears.

ENG generated a 4th weekly close out of the last 11 weeks at .80. This level on a weekly closing basis has proven to be an unbreakable support level. By the same token, negative week as it failed to go above the previous week's high in spite of the close the previous week in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that the bulls are not yet ready to gain back some measure of control. By the same token, the low weekly close for the past 5 years has been .77, suggesting that even if the bears are able to generate a break of this support that another support of consequence is found immediately below. The supportive and repetitive action at a certain level has been seen 4 previous times over the past 10 years and each and every time it has been resolved to the upside in a strong manner, suggesting that the only thing that needs to happen is a positive catalyst. The earnings report due out on March 6th may be that catalyst. For now, the probabilities favor further sideways action. By the same token, the stock made a new 6-week intraweek low and having closed on the lows of the week, further downside below .80 is expected to be seen. In January 2016 when the stock was also trading at this level and building a bottom at the .77 - .81 level, the stock did something similar and dropped down to .79 and 2 weeks later was at 1.24. As such, it is expected the stock will drop down to .79 this week and begin a turn around. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

FCEL generated a new 9-week low and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.61 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and in spite of the recent weakness, the stock remains above the 200-day MA, currently at 1.58, and has remained above the line for the past 4 months, suggesting that the stock remains in an uptrend that has not yet been negated. The stock is presently in an uptrend having seen a drop down to 1.50 in November (when it tested the MA for the first time), a rally to 2.10, a drop down to 1.66 and a rally to 2.17 (7 points above the first rally high). As such and considering that the 200-day MA is at 1.58, it seems the stock will drop down to that level, which is 8 points above the 1.50 November low and then begin to move up again. As such, the probabilities favor some but limited weakness this week and a green close next Friday. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.75 that if broken would signal an end to the recent short-term downtrend.

GCI mimicked the index market fall, having fallen 5% in value on Friday. Like the indexes, the stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 11.10 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless and on a positive note, the stock remains within the flag formation of a bullish flag as the bears were unable to break the recent 10-week lows at 10.90, at 10.93 and at 11.03, suggesting that the uptrend remains intact. By the same token, those 3 lows are now prime candidates for a break given that they are multiple lows and that follow through to the downside in the index market is expected to be seen. There is an important intraweek low from July 2015 at 10.75 and the 100-week MA is currently at 10.81 and is a line that has been indicative of trend for the past 10 years, meaning that even if further downside is seen and those recent intraweek levels get broken, there is support immediately below that keeps the bull flag in place. The original mention offered a stop loss at 10.80 but that stop loss will now be changed to 10.65. Any green daily close at this point would be indicative, especially if the recent lows are broken. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but the longer term chart still favors the bulls.

LVS made a new 44-month intraweek high and a new 42-month weekly closing high last week but the bulls were unable to maintain the gain in spite of a better than expected earnings report that came out on Wednesday after the close, having closed on Friday in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 74.52 will likely be seen this week. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 76.08. The better than expected earnings report did generate several upgrades (Bank of America with an $85 target and Stiffel Nicolau with an $88 target) but JP Morgan maintained its neutral rating with a $72 target. The negative reaction to the earnings report does suggest some downside will be seen this week with the likely objective of testing and probably closing the weekly chart breakaway gap between 71.24 and 72.06, especially given that the runaway gap between 75.00 and 75.15 that was seen at the beginning of the week was closed after the earnings report came out. Decent intraweek support is found at 69.15 that is highly unlikely to be broken due to the bullish fundamental picture but a drop down to that level is a possibility. The short trade given the bullish fundamentals and rallying stock index market does make this a low probability short trade, meaning a close watch on the action needs to be maintained. Stop loss is presently at 78.67 but a break above the intraday resistance at 76.61 could be a sign that the stock will continue higher. Probabilities very slightly favor the bears.

MNK made a new all-time low and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 16.98 is likely to be seen. There is "general" support at the $17 demilitarized zone but given that it is a new all-time low, that supposed cannot be relied on. Probabilities continue to strongly favor the bears.

RENN made a new 9-week intraweek and weekly closing low on Friday. The stock closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.00 will be seen this week. The stock has now given back 48% of the gains seen after the announcement of the purchase of the app for truckers. Nonetheless and in spite of all the weakness seen, the 6-month uptrend remains unbroken as the bears have not yet broken the November low at 9.01. It also needs to be mentioned that there is also an intraweek spike low from May 2016 at 8.90 that gives the support at 9.01 extra strength. A break below 8.90 would end the uptrend, meaning that the probabilities do not favor that occurring. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 10.37 that if broken would suggest the worst is over. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but based on the mid-term uptrend it is unlikely that any longer term chart damage will occur.

SLCA generated a short-term sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the previous low weekly close at 32.56 on Friday. In addition, the stock confirmed the previous week's failure to stay above the 200-week MA, currently at 36.00 (closed the previous week at 35.72) with a second close in a row below the line. The stock closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 31.61 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 30.41, very minor at 29.71 and then nothing until minor to decent at 27.42. Using the weekly "closing" charts, if this sell signal does not get negated this week, objective to the downside is 29.46-29.62. Pivotal resistance is now found at 34.34 that if broken would likely negate the sell signal. Mental stop loss was triggered this past week, suggesting liquidation of purchases should be considered, especially now with the sell signal on the weekly closing chart. Using the intraday chart, a rally could be seen at the beginning of the week up to around 32.65. Such a rally should be used to liquidate positions at a small loss. Probabilities favor the bears.

WDC generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's and then below the previous week's low and closing in the red near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 85.01 will be seen this week. The negative reversal does suggest the rally has found a temporary top and that the downside support levels will once again be tested. Using the weekly chart, minor to perhaps decent support is found at 82.14 and then nothing until 78.80 that if broken convincingly would suggest a short-term downtrend will begin. Monthly chart suggest that a drop down to 80.78 will occur but that at that moment the uptrend will begin again. The stock did generate a sell signal, having closed below the most recent low daily close at 87.08 as well as close below the 200-day MA, currently at 86.90, suggesting profits be taken at the beginning of the week, especially if a rally is seen on Monday. A rally above 87.07 is now needed to offer the bulls any hope for a reversal of the negatives seen on Friday. Probabilities favor the bears.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .138 (new price 1.65).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .80.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 2.94. Stock closed on Friday at 3.913 (new price (39.13).

4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.63.

5) RENN - Purchased at 9.91. Averaged long at 10.495 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 8.80. Stock closed on Friday at 9.33.

6) CCJ - Averaged long at 9.585 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.66. Stock closed on Friday at 9.11.

7) MNK - Averaged long at 25.165 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.29.

9) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.95.

10) ARNA - Averaged long at 29.093 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 32.50. Stock closed on Friday at 39.13.

11) LVS - Covered shorts at 77.04. Shorted at 77.40. Profit on the trade of $36 per 100 shares minus commissions.

12) GCI - Purchased at 11.33. Stop loss now at 10.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.15.

13) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.65.

14) WDC - Averaged long at 82.555 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 85.00. Stock closed on Friday at 85.25.

15) COF - Shorted at 104.54. Stop loss now at 104.98. Stock closed on Friday at 101.57.

16) WMT - Shorted at 105.91. Stop loss at 106.66. Stock closed on Friday at 104.48.

17) GS - Shorted at 269.67. Covered shorts at 270.95. Loss on the trade of $128 per 100 shares plus commissions.

18) MNK - Averaged long at 42.733. Liquidated at 18.19. Loss on the trade of $7363 per 100 shares (3 mentions) plus commissions.

19) SN - Purchased at 4.94. Liquidated at 4.66. Loss on the trade of $28 per 100 shares plus commissions.

20) SLCA - Purchased at 32.96. Stop loss at 10.31. Stock closed on Friday at 32.03.


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View Sep 24, 2017 Newsletter

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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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