Issue #560
March 11, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Tech Industry on Fire. New All-Time High in NASDAQ!

DOW Friday closing price - 25335
SPX Friday closing price - 2786
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7558

The NASDAQ made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7559 will be seen this week. The index has outperformed both the DOW and the SPX which are still 4.8% and 4% from their all-time highs respectively, suggesting that the rally is not yet market-wide but industry related (Tech Industry).

Nonetheless, the DOW and the SPX both gave new buy signals on Friday, having closed above the previous and most recent high weekly closes, meaning that across the board the market should continue to rally this coming week. Nonetheless, with both of those indexes still having resistance levels above where selling interest will be found, further upside may be limited, especially considering the high PE ratios that are presently found in the SPX companies and the lagging buy interest in DOW companies.

The new all-time high made in the NASDAQ does commit the bulls to take the index high enough above the previous all-time high that any mini selloff and/or profit taking action would not generate a failure signal. Rule of Thumb on that is normally about 3% above the previous high, suggesting the index could get up as high as 7730 before some selling interest is seen. By the same token, should the other indexes also rally 3% above Friday's highs (DOW to 26095 and SPX to 2868), it would still keep the other indexes below their previous all-time highs (DOW at 26616 and SPX at 2872). Simply stated, this new all-time high seen in the NASDAQ continues to be a mixed bag that is not likely to help the overall market all that much.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the NASDAQ does not show any resistance above. The SPX still has decent resistance at 2789 but then nothing until the gap area between 2836 and 2851. Strong resistance will be found at the all-time high at 2872. The DOW still has minor to decent resistance at 25432, decent at 25732 and then then nothing until the gap area between 26338 and 26445.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 24792 and the decent as well as pivotal at 24217. The SPX show minor support at 2697 and decent as well as pivotal at 2647. The NASDAQ will show minor support at the breakaway gap at 7469 and then minor support at 7194 and decent as well as pivotal at 7084.

The dichotomy between the indexes is confusing to the traders given then the NASDAQ has open air above but the DOW still shows 2 resistance levels close by of consequence. Can the interest in Tech Stocks continue to outperform the rest of the market, especially since earnings are not due out for another 5 weeks? Will the Tech Stocks strength filter through to the rest of the market and cause the others to begin to catch up? Those are the questions that will be asked this week.

The strength seen on Friday is likely to continue at the beginning of the week and if the SPX gets above its intraweek resistance at 2789 (likely as the index closed on Friday at 2786) the traders are likely to get on board in a big way as they will have open air on both the NAZ and the SPX.

The only negative to watch for this week is Friday's breakaway gap in the NASDAQ between 7435 and 7469. Closure of the gap will act as a "balloon deflator" and cause a failure signal if the index closes that day below 7505, which would be a high probability if the gap is closed. Otherwise there is nothing to stop the rally (at least for Monday) as there are no economic reports of consequence until Tuesday's CPI report and Wednesday's PPI and Retail Sales reports, which are not likely to be negatively catalytic to begin with. Simply stated, the bulls are likely to feast this week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no new mentions this week. Due to the strong rally in the RUT, I believe small cap stocks are likely to find buying interest this week and as such, I will key on adding positions in presently held stocks (BHTG, CCJ, CLF, ENG, FCEL, and GCI). I will give desired entry points in the message board.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 30-month high and then closing in the red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 41.15 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bears failed to generate a failure signal on the daily closing chart, given that the previous 30-month high daily close is at 41.19 and though the stock dipped below 42.00 the last 4 days of the week, including Thursday when it got down to 41.15, no close below that level occurred. Intraweek support is minor at 40.29 and decent at 39.00. On a daily closing basis though, pivotal support is found at 41.19. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but the bulls for the end of the week.

BHTG made a new 8-month low this past week and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 3.90 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday, having made the new low that day and then closing in the green and on the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside above Friday's high at 4.07. The stock does show decent weekly close support at the 4.00 level and if a green weekly close occurs next Friday, it should generate some new buying interest. As it is, the previous 8-month intraweek low was at 3.92 and if the bulls can prevent new lows from being made this week by less than 5 points, a double bottom will be built around the 3.90 area. Minor but possibly short-term indicative resistance is found at 4.14. Above that level, there is no resistance until minor to decent resistance is reached at 4.65. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

CCJ generated a relatively uneventful week though it did slightly favor the bulls, given that the bears failed to generate further downside below the previous week's low in spite of closing near the lows that week and then going above the previous week's high and closing in the green. The action was supportive to the bulls though not necessarily indicative since the close was in the middle of the week's trading range and no resistance levels were broken. Nonetheless, the 17-month uptrend continues to be intact and with the green weekly close on Friday the probabilities now shift to the bulls for further upside. Daily close support is now decent at 8.82 and minor to perhaps decent at 9.02. Daily close resistance remains decent at 9.45. The 200-day MA, currently at 9.52, is pivotal resistance. A confirmed close above the MA line would likely be a strong buy signal. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but a breakout is unlikely to occur this week.

CLF generated a negative week with a close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.27 will be seen this week. This could be a pivotal week given that the stock has stayed above the 200-week MA, currently at 6.90, for the past 4 weeks and the previous break above the line lasted 4 weeks before a failure signal occurred. As such, if the bulls can keep the stock from breaking the line this week, especially if the stock gets down to support and then reverses for a green weekly close, it will be a statement of increasing strength. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek support is found between 6.95 and 7.02 that needs to hold up. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 7.95 and long term pivotal at 9.15. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but this is an important and likely pivotal week.

ENG generated a green weekly close and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .83 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, this is a pivotal week due to the earnings report that comes out on Thursday, meaning that the sideways action seen the last 18 weeks is likely to come to an end and either a strong short-covering rally will occur or new lows be made. Probabilities favor the bulls as the stock remains in a 5-year uptrend (though slight) and in the past when previous lows were not broken after a long protracted stint of bears trying to push down, the end result has been a strong short-covering rally. There have 4 of these over the past 10 years and in every case the stock at least tripled in value in the ensuing 6-12 months. The previous major low is .68 cents, meaning that if broken the uptrend would end. Short-term pivotal resistance is at .87, stronger pivotal resistance is between .95 and .99. The 200-day MA is currently at 1.05 and if broken on a daily closing basis, would suggest the short-covering rally has begun. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FCEL made a new 6-week high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.86 will be seen this week. Additionally, the stock gave a buy signal on both the daily and weekly closing chart, having closed above 1.80 and 1.74 respectively. Minor to perhaps decent daily close resistance is found at 1.90 and decent on both the daily and weekly closing charts at 2.02. A close above 2.02 next Friday would be considered a strong bullish statement. On an intraweek basis, a rally up to the 2.00 level is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek support is now found at 1.65 and pivotal at 1.60. Probabilities favor the bulls.

GCI made a new 18-week low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.67 will be seen. Nonetheless and on a possible bullish note, the stock got down to the 200-day MA on Friday, currently at 9.74, and bounced up to close on the highs of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 9.96 will be seen on Monday and if that occurs, the retest of the 200-day MA will be successful. The MA line had not been seen or tested since November 2nd and the stock has not closed below the line since September 26th when it first broke above the line, suggesting that some buying interest (perhaps of consequence) will be seen now. In addition, there is minor to perhaps decent weekly close support at the $10 demilitarized zone, suggesting that perhaps the worst is over. With the RUT index (small cap stocks) generating some decent strength this week (above the DOW and SPX), it is possible and perhaps even likely that stocks like GCI will now be seeing some new buying interest. Minor but possibly short-term intraweek resistance is found at 10.53 and slightly stronger and more pivotal at 10.81. Any green weekly close above the top of the $10 demilitarized zone (above 10.30) would be confirmation that the worst is over. Support is found at 9.39 that if broken would suggest further downside will be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

IBM did not follow through to the downside off of the previous week's close near the lows of the week and rallied to close in the green, at the 200-week MA, currently at 158.90, and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 159.58 will be seen this week. Evidently, if the stock generates another green weekly close next Friday, the MA line will be broken and new buying interest will be seen. Nonetheless, if previous week's high at 159.78 get broken, especially if the top of the $160 demilitarized zone at 160.30 gets broken, the probabilities will turn strongly in favor of the bulls. As such, the stop loss at 160.35 should be maintained. Above 160.30 there is no resistance until 162.48. Support is now found at 154.73. Probabilities favor the bulls but it is evident the stock is at a pivotal level.

MNK bears failed to follow through off of the previous week's close on the lows of the week and at the end of the week a green close occurred. Nonetheless, once again the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 15.79 will be seen this week. On a positive note though, the bulls were able to get above minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance at 16.80 on Monday, suggesting that even though the bears remain in control, some buying interest is being found. The stock seems to have found a bottom, or at least a decent support level in the $16 area (based on weekly closes), given that the weekly closes for the past 5 weeks have been 16.02, 16.80, 16.16, 16.31 and 16.45. With the recent better than expected earnings report and the stock having lost 82% in value over the past 19 months, the stock seems to be ready for a short-covering rally.

RENN generated a non-eventful week, having traded within the previous week's trading range. Nonetheless, the stock generated a green weekly close and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.74 will be seen this week, if that occurs, a decent rally could be seen given that the high for the past 5 weeks has been 9.75. In addition, the green weekly close has made the previous weeks close at 9.21 into a successful retest of the 5-month low weekly close at 8.45. If next Friday the bulls are able to generate a close above 9.58, a new buy signal will be given. The same level of closing resistance is found on the daily chart, suggesting that the 9.58 level (on a closing basis) is pivotal this week. Above 9.75 there is minor resistance at 10.25 and then nothing of consequence until the mid 11's are reached. Over the past 5 weeks, a decent support base seems to have been built, suggesting that it is now the turn of the bulls to see some movement in their favor. Probabilities favor the bulls.

TOL failed to follow through to the downside after the previous week's close near the lows of the week and the bulls ended up generating an inside week and a green weekly close on the highs of the week, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 45.37 will be seen this week. An additional positive is that the 200-day MA, currently at 43.30, was reached on March 1st and for the last 7 days has traded not only above it but on a short term uptrend with every day the lows being higher than the previous day's low. As such, the probabilities of a move back down to test the recent lows at some point and time are high. Support is found at 43.74 and at 43.37. Nonetheless, there is no resistance above until the 46.43-46.63 level is reached, meaning that the probabilities actually favor the stock going higher before a retest of the recent lows occurs. Overall, the upside objective remains at 48.31. The probabilities are now high that the low for the correction has been found at 42.88 and that for the next 3-6 weeks that the stock will trade between 43.50 and 48.31. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .151 (new price 1.82).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .82.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 3.66. Stock closed on Friday at 4.227 (new price (42.27).

4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.43.

5) RENN - Purchased at 11.08. No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 9.48.

6) CCJ - Averaged long at 9.585 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.17.

7) MNK - Purchased at 16.23. Averaged long at 22.186 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.45.

9) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.05.

10) ARNA - Averaged long at 29.093 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 36.65. Stock closed on Friday at 42.27.

11) IBM - Shorted at 157.06 and at 159.46. Averaged short at 158.26. Stop loss at 160.35. Stock closed on Friday at 159.31.

12) GCI - Averaged long at 11.175 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.95.

13) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss now at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.82.

14) TOL - Purchased at 43.54. Stop loss at 42.78. Stock closed on Friday at 45.22.

15) WDC - Covered shorts at 90.84. Loss on the trade of $838 per 100 shares (3 mentions) plus commissions.

16) IBM - Shorted at 156.95. Covered shorts at 157.99. Loss on the trade of $104 per 100 shares plus commissions.

17) AAPL - Shorted at 176.04. Covered shorts at 178.48. Loss on the trade of $244 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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