Issue #559 ![]() March 4, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Recovery Rally Ends. Retest of the Recent Lows in Process!
DOW Friday closing price - 24538
All the indexes generated red weekly closes, suggesting that the recovery run to retest the all-time highs has come to an end. One of the reasons for the weakness seen this week was Trump's announcement that he was imposing an import tax on Steel and Aluminum and Trade Wars have always been considered an overall negative to the market. The indexes all closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 24217, SPX at 2647, and NASDAQ at 7084). Nonetheless, the indexes did recover on Friday and generated a positive reversal day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside and also suggesting that further downside may be limited in nature.
The NASDAQ remained the strongest of the indexes as import taxes are not likely to have any effect on the Tech Industry. In fact, the index closed just 4 points below the midpoint of the week's trading range, meaning that any further downside seen this week will likely be minimal.
The economic reports last week were mixed, inasmuch as Durable Goods Orders came in lower than expected and in the negative, while the Consumer Confidence number came in at an 18-year high and GDP came in higher than expected. This coming week, the same scenario is expected to be seen with Factory Orders expected to come in negative but non-farm payrolls expected to come in better than the previous month. Nonetheless, Factory Orders has not been known to be a catalytic report and non-farm payrolls are already at levels that will be difficult to better, meaning that neither of these reports is likely to generate much movement in the index market.
The imposition of import taxes is likely to keep some pressure in the market and unless Trump reneges on his statement or Congress does not approve it, it will likely keep the indexes under sell pressure.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW will show resistance at 25293 and at 25432 and pivotal at last week's high at 25800. On a daily closing basis though, resistance will be found at 24797. The SPX will show resistance at 2727 and at 2754 and pivotal at last week's high at 2789. On a daily closing basis though, resistance will be found at 2701. The NASDAQ will show resistance 7338 and pivotal at last week's high at 7438.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 24217, minor to decent at 23378, and decent as well as pivotal at 23360. The SPX shows minor support at 2647, minor to decent at 2593 and decent as well as pivotal at 2532. The NASDAQ shows minor support at 7117, minor to decent at 6967 and decent as well as pivotal at 6630.
The indexes are likely to see a bit more selling interest this week with the DOW leading the downside and the NASDAQ being and anchor and "holding up the fort". Nonetheless, the reality is that the indexes generated a negative reversal week last week and it is unlikely that there will be any fundamental positives that will negate that strong negative, especially since there is quite a bit of chart room to the downside before decent support levels are reached. The indexes are expected to rally at the beginning of the week based on the recovery seen on Friday but even though the rally might show some strength on an intraday basis, on a daily closing basis the positives should be minimal.
Probabilities favor the bears. In the DOW the 23800 - 24100 area is likely to be seen. In the SPX the 2593-2602 area is likely to be seen. The NASDAQ though, is not likely to see big selling but the 7000 level will beckon.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The indexes are likely retesting the lows seen in February but there some bargain hunting buying occurring. Action for this week is likely to be two-way with both red and green being seen, though the probabilities favor more red than green overall. By the same token, most of the green will likely be seen at the beginning of the week. As such, mentions this week include both purchases and sales, trying to take advantage of the "trading" opportunities likeiy to be found this week.
PURCHASES
TOL Friday Closing Price - 43.91
TOL reported earnings last week and though they were better than expected the stock generated a negative reversal, having made a new 5-week high just after the report and then a new 20-week low 2 days after the report. The reason for the negative reversal was stated as "investors reacted negatively, mirroring concerns to home sales prices that were "slightly" lower that what the company had expected and weak fiscal second-quarter adjusted gross margin guidance". The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 42.88 will be seen this week.
Nonetheless, TOL got down to the 200-day MA, currently at 43.10, on Thursday with the 42.88 low and generated a positive reversal, having closed in the green. On Friday, the stock once again tested the line with a 42.93 low and bounced to close in the green and on the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action on Monday will be above Friday's high at 44.02 and with no resistance above until minor at 47.81, an opportunity presents itself for a fast in-and-out purchase that could in effect turn to be more than that given that the earnings report was actually better than expected.
It must be mentioned that TOL has traded above the 200-day MA since November 2016 and this is actually the first time that the line has been seen since then, meaning that it is unlikely the line will be broken and that follow through to the downside off of the negative reversal may not happen.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, TOL shows minor but old resistance (from November) at 46.63, minor again at 47.81 and then minor to decent between 47.99 and 48.31. Decent as well as pivotal resistance is found at last week's high (right after the earnings report) at 49.24.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, TOL shows support at last week's low at 42.88 and then very minor at 42.41. Below that and on a weekly closing basis, there is decent support at 39.95.
The index market is expected to rally at the beginning of the week and based on the action of TOL on Thursday and Friday, it too should see a rally. Nonetheless, the stock could generate even more of a rally than the index market simply because there is no resistance above close by, the successful retest of the 200-day MA could generate a strong round of new buying interest, and last but not least, the earnings report was actually better than expected.
Purchases of TOL at Friday's closing price of 43.91 and using a mental stop loss at 42.65 and having an objective of 47.99 will offer a 3.3-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
MNK Friday Closing Price - 16.31
See held stock update below for detailed information.
Purchases of MNK at Friday's close at 16.31 and using a stop loss at 15.15 and having an objective of 21.22 will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
SALES
IBM Friday Closing Price - 154.49
IBM broke the 200-week MA in October 2014 and since then (178 weeks) has traded below the line 92% of the time (162 weeks). There have been 2 occasions when the stock traded above the line, with the first time being between January and April 2017 for 12 weeks and the second time was this year during the first 4 weeks of the year.
IBM 5 weeks ago broke below the 200-week MA, currently at 159.15, and proceeded to fall over a period of 2 weeks to 144.40 at the same time that the indexes fell. This past week the stock rallied back up to the MA line with a rally up to 159.78 but then a negative reversal occurred below the previous week's low as well as a close in the red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 151.88 will be seen this week.
IBM generated a positive reversal day on Friday, having fallen down to the 200-day MA, currently at 151.85, and then closing in the green and on the highs of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 154.76 will be seen at the beginning of the week. Nonetheless, the fact that the stock has traded 92% of the time below the 200-week MA for the past 3+ years and then tested the line successfully this past week, suggests that the rally expected at the beginning of the week will be used by the traders to sell into.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, IBM shows minor to decent resistance between 157.20 and 157.85 and then decent as well as likely pivotal at last week's high at 159.78.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, IBM shows very minor support at 151.49, minor to perhaps decent at 149.79, and decent as well as this mention's objective at 146.21. Below that level there is decent to perhaps strong as well as longer term pivotal support at 144.40.
The IBM chart strongly suggest that if the DOW does not renew the previous uptrend (unlikely) that a drop back down to retest the correction low at 144.40 will occur with a drop down to the $146-$147 area.
Sales of IBM between 157.24 and 157.85 and using a stop loss at 160.35 and having a 146.21 objective will offer a 3.7-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018, as of 2/1 Profit of $340 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for February per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
COF (short) $1919 WMT (short) $750 WMT (short) $21 Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for February, per 100 shares and after commissions $2690 Closed out losing trades for February per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
SLCA (long) $70
GS (short) $142 FSLR (long) $92 EBAY (long) $216 AAPL (long) $153 BEN (long) $84 CPG (long) $93 SLCA (long)$75 NFLX (short) $391 NFLX (short) $64 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
WDC (long) $887 Total Loss for February, per 100 shares, including commissions $2407 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 2/28
PTC (short) $40
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
ARNA(long) $54 ARNA(long) $405 CLF (long) $90 Total $907 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 2/28
AAPL (short) $355
GCI (long) $98 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
MNK (long) $276 Total $1178 Status of trades for month of February per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Profit of $12
Status of account/portfolio for 2018, as of 2/28Profit of $352 using 100 shares traded per mention.
ARNA generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing on a new 33-month high. The main reason for the rally was the announcement that the Phase 1 results of one of their main drugs was positive. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's close at 43.37 is expected to be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there is very minor resistance at 45.70, minor at 47.40, minor to perhaps decent at 49.05 and decent 51.20. On a weekly closing basis though, minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 45.00 and again at 48.10, minor to decent at 51.20 and decent at 54.30. Support on both an intraweek and weekly closing basis will be decent between 39.25 and 40.84. Probabilities favor the stock heading up to the 49.00-51.00 level on an intraweek basis but the weekly close resistance will be dependent on how good the traders feel the fundamental prospects for the drug are. As such, next week's close will give some indications. By the same token, the probabilities favor the stock trading between $40 and $50 for the next 3-6 months, meaning that any rally above $50 should be considered for taking profits. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week. BHTG had an uneventful week, trading within the previous week's trading range. Nonetheless, the stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 4.27 is expected to be seen. There is minor to perhaps decent intraweek support at 4.20 and if the bulls do go below last week's low but the 4.20 level does not break, a successful retest of that support will have occurred and a rally could then begin. Intraweek resistance is found at 4.65 and then pivotal at 5.14, especially given that the 200-day MA is currently at 4.95. Any daily close above 4.50 would be seen as a positive. Any daily close below 3.92 would be seen as a negative. Probabilities very slightly favor the bears this week. CCJ generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high and then closing below last week's low, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.79 will be seen this week. Short-term pivotal support is found at 8.34 and short-term pivotal resistance is found at 9.48. The mid-term chart (4 months) is showing a triangle formation that if broken would likely generate a strong move in either direction. To the upside the line of the triangle is presently at 9.59 and on the downside it is at 8.43, all based on weekly closes. Probabilities favor more choppy action this week but still staying within the trading parameters seen recently. CLF generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then above the previous week's high and closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.17 will be seen this week. The reason for the reversal was mainly because of the announcement of the import tax on Steel and Aluminum. As an ore producer, increase in prices is a positive for the company. On an additional positive note, the low for the week was at the 200-week MA, currently at 6.95, meaning that if the stock does go above Friday's high next week that a successful retest of that line will have occurred. With this being the 3rd break above the line that had been in place of 5+ years, it does suggest that the long-term downtrend is now over and that a decent short-covering rally will occur. Minor to decent resistance is found at 8.77 and decent as well as pivotal at 9.15. It is highly likely that the 8.77 level will be seen this week and the probabilities are starting to favor a breakout of consequence with a break of the 9.15 resistance level. Minor to decent, as well as short-term pivotal support is now found at 7.03. Trend setting support is now at 6.30, meaning that if broken the potential rally will end. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG continued to trade within the trading range seen the last 17 weeks between .73 and .95 cents. It is not expected that there will be any changes this week as the traders are likely to wait for the earnings report that comes out on March 15th. The stock did close on the high of the day on Friday and further upside above Friday's high at .82 is expected to be seen. Resistance is found at .87 that if broken would suggest the top of the trading range at .95 would likely be seen. Pivotal intraweek support is found at .73. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls this week. FCEL continues to tread water as it has done for the past 16 weeks, trading between 1.45 and 2.17. Nonetheless, the stock now shows 3 successful retests of the 200-day MA, currently at 1.62 and if the bulls are able to get above Thursday's 1.73 high, some new buying interest will likely be seen. Something is likely to happen this week as the company reports earnings on Thursday morning and the last earnings report was positive and generated a 21% rally. The earnings that were reported in January were -$.17 and that is the same that is expected this quarter. Anything better than that would be a positive. Off of the last earnings report, there were a couple of upgrades that gave a $3 and a $4 upside objective. The bulls have not been able to generate that kind of buying but if the report is better than expected, the bears may start to cover their shorts. Pivotal support is found at 1.45. Short-term pivotal resistance is now at 1.84. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. GCI bulls failed to follow through on the stock's close near the highs of the week the previous week and ended up having an inside week with a lower weekly close. Nonetheless, the stock now shows a double bottom on the daily chart at 9.92 and a close on the highs of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside above Friday's high at 10.53. If the bulls are able to get above 10.81 a buy signal will be given even though what needs to happen is for the gap between 10.88 and 11.18 be closed to ensure that the negatives have gone away. Support is now decent at 9.92. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. MNK reported better than expected earnings and rallied 26% from the previous day's close. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to maintain the rally and within a couple of days, the stock had given up all of its gains and tacked a 5% loss. The bears though, were not able to make a new all-time low and the stock did bounce up on Friday to generate a green weekly close, suggesting that the earnings report was not a game changer but was likely good enough to end the downtrend and likely determine that the bottom is now found at 15.27. If that is the case and it is confirmed next Friday with another green close (and no new intraweek lows), a short covering rally to the all-time low weekly close at 21.22 is likely to occur. Minor to perhaps decent support is found at 15.27 and minor at 15.41. To the upside and on an intraweek basis, minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 17.33 and then minor at 17.60. Above that level, there is no intraweek resistance until last week's high at 21.95 is reached. On a weekly closing basis though, resistance will be found at 21.22. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. A daily close above 16.80 should bolster the stock for a run up to 21.22. RENN generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-week high but then closing in the red and below the previous week's low, as well as slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 8.80 than above last week's high at 9.75 is in effect. On a positive note though, the stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday, having made a new 11-day low and then going above Thursday's high and closing in the green and near the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside. The stock was in need of a retest of the major low at 8.45 and last week's drop will become that retest if the stock gets above 9.75 this week. If that occurs, the chart will be fulfilled to the downside and new buying interest will likely be seen. Support is now minor to perhaps decent at 9.01 and if seen but not broken, the bulls will gain the edge. Resistance is minor to decent at 9.75 but if broken it would be a decent positive. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. WDC generated an unconvincing negative reversal, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing in the red but in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 89.93 than below last week's low at 86.03. Nonetheless, the red weekly close does make the previous week's close at 89.14 into the 3rd successful retest of the 21-month high weekly close at 94.82, which means the stock is still technically in a downtrend. In the daily chart, the stock is showing a possible bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 77.90 to 89.93 and the flag the trading range the last 4 days down to 86.03. A break above 89.93 would offer an objective of 98.94, meaning that a stop loss at 90.35 should now be put on. One big key for this week will be the 200-day MA, currently at 86.60. If the bears can generate 2 closes in a row below the line they will gain the edge. Nonetheless, as long as the stock is trading above the line, the bulls have the edge. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .14 (new price 1.68). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .79. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 3.66. Stock closed on Friday at 4.37 (new price (43.77). 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.95. 5) RENN - Purchased at 11.08. No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 9.21. 6) CCJ - Averaged long at 9.585 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.97. 7) MNK - Averaged long at 25.165 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.31. 9) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.30. 10) ARNA - Averaged long at 29.093 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 36.65. Stock closed on Friday at 43.77. 11) CPG - Liquidated at 3.64. Averaged long at 7.00. Loss on the trade of $72 per 100 shares plus commissions. 12) GCI - Averaged long at 11.175. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.45. 13) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss now at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.68. 14) WDC - Shorted at 87.03, at 88.86 and at 88.25. Averaged short at 88.046 (3 mentions) Stop loss at 90.35. Stock closed on Friday at 88.25. 15) MNK - Purchased at 16.30. Liquidated at 15.65. Loss on the trade of $65 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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