Issue #564
April 22, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Market Weakens in Spite of Better Than Expected Earnings!

DOW Friday closing price - 24462
SPX Friday closing price - 2670
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7146

The indexes all generated new 4 week highs, both on an intraweek and weekly closing basis, but all closed near the lows of the week, suggesting that further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 24375, SPX at 2660 and NASDAQ at 7123) will be seen this week. If that does occur (likely), the rally that started on April 2nd will be truncated and a retest of the most recent lows (DOW at 23344, SPX at 2553, and NAZ at 6805) will ensue.

Such an occurrence will be a negative for the bulls given that most of the earnings reports that have come out so far have been better than expected and it was the earnings quarter that was supposed to generate resumption of the uptrend if and when earnings supported that idea.

Such an example occurred this past week when NFLX reported much better than expected earnings and made a new all-time intraweek high by 1.5% above the previous one but failed to confirm the new high on the weekly closing chart, having closed 1.2% below the previous all-time high weekly close.

This coming week is pivotal given that there are important earnings reports (GOOGL, FB, AMZN, CAT, and BA to name a few) as well as economic reports of some consequence such as Durable Goods and GDP adv. As such, by Friday the traders will have most of the reports needed to make a decision as to what is likely to happen during the summer months.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW will show minor to perhaps decent resistance at last week's high at 24858, minor at 24977, and minor to perhaps decent at 25499. The SPX will show minor to perhaps decent resistance at 2717, very minor at 2739 and then minor to perhaps decent at 2789. The NASDAQ will show minor resistance at 7255, minor to perhaps decent but indicative at 7319 and then decent at 7505.

To the downside, the DOW shows minor to decent support at 24217 and then decent at 23778. The SPX shows minor to decent support at 2647 and then decent between 2593 and 2605 that also includes the 200-day MA, currently at 2605. The NASDAQ shows minor to decent support at 7084, then minor to perhaps decent at 6992, minor at 6903 and then decent as well as pivotal at 6805 that also includes the 200-day MA, currently at 6809.

This week there are short term pivotal (and perhaps indicative) support levels in all indexes that are likely to be reached if last week's lows are broken. These support levels are all spike lows that occurred on March 2nd (DOW at 24217, SPX at 2647 and NAZ at 7084) and from which rallies of consequence were seen (NAZ made a new all-time high after that low was made). As such, those support levels are likely to be closely watched and supported by the bulls, given that if broken it would not only give new ammunition to the bears but also open the chart door for further downside of consequence since the next support levels of any consequence are substantially below. It is likely that the week will start with some weakness as there are no reports of any consequence on Monday morning and the indexes closed weakly on Friday. Nonetheless, Tuesday should see some trading action given that GOOGL reports Monday evening and the Consumer Confidence number, as well as earnings reports on 3M, CAT, TRV and VZ, come out Tuesday morning. Thursday and Friday would then be the next action days with Durable Goods coming out Thursday morning and AMZN and GDP adv on Friday morning.

The chart outlook at this time is for weakness to be seen Monday and the indexes reaching those spike low support levels and turning around. Further upside to be seen on Tuesday if and when GOOGL does not disappoint (unlikely) and decisions to be made on Friday after AMZN and GDP come out.

Nonetheless and like I mentioned on the message board, traders seem to be somewhat unimpressed with the better than expected earnings reports that have come out so far and if that continues to be the case, they are likely to turn sellers by the end of this coming week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The beginning of the earnings quarter has not brought about the rally that has been seen in other quarters, suggesting that traders are not feeling the same way (bullish) about the market as in the past few years. Most earnings reports that have already come out have been better than expected and yet the indexes and most of those stocks that have reported find themselves either at or lower than prior to the reports. As such, the idea that there is more downside to be seen is gathering momentum. Mentions this week are all sales.

SALES

CALM Friday Closing Price - 49.70

CALM reported earnings on April 2nd and they were lower than expected. The stock opened 6% lower but by the end of the day it had recovered most of the loss and within 3 days the stock had rallied 17.5% from the lows seen right after the report came out. This scenario has now occurred 4 times in a row, given that on the 3 previous earnings reports, the stock had reported lower than expected earnings, opened lower the day of the report and recovered as well as rallied within a couple of days after.

Each and every one of the past 4 earnings reports have been almost a mirror image with CALM rallying 17% off of the July 2017 earnings report, rallying 16.8% off of the October 2017 report, rallying 15.4% off of the January report and now having rallied so far 19% off of the last report. Off of each of those rallies, the stock then proceeded to drop 13%, 8.8%, and 12.5% respectively.

CALM got close on Friday to the 23-month high at 50.40, having rallied to 49.96. The stock closed near the highs of the week on Friday and further upside above 49.96 is expected to be seen this week. With a 1-year history of rallying after a worse than expected earnings report but then falling back a couple of weeks later, facing a decent resistance level that has held the stock down for the past 2 years, and looking at an index market that is starting to show weakness in spite of better than expected earnings reports, it is a high probability that some retracement as seen in the past will begin this week.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, CALM shows decent resistance at 50.40. Above that level, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 53.06. On a weekly closing basis, there is resistance at 49.55 that was broken on Friday but only by 15 points, suggesting that a red close next Friday will generate a double high on the weekly closing chart of importance, especially considering that the $50 level is also considered a strong psychological resistance.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, CALM shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 48.50. Below that, there is minor support at 46.05 and then minor to perhaps decent but old support (from Jan 2016) at 44.94. The 200-week MA is currently at 44.00 and that is strengthened by a spike low of consequence seen in August 2015. Below that level though, there is mostly open air below to the 41.15 low seen right after the earnings report came out.

The probabilities favor the bulls heading above 49.96 at the beginning of the week but finding decent selling at the top of the $50 demilitarized zone and up to the previous 23-month high at 50.40. After that and based on its 12-month history (mentioned above), a correction of anywhere from 9% to 12.5% is likely to occur, meaning that the downside target of this correction is likely to be the $44 level.

Sales of CALM above 49.96 and using a stop loss at 50.75 and having a 44.00 objective will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

MSFT Friday Closing Price - 95.00

MSFT has been on a major rally over the past 22 months, having almost doubled in price from 49.52 to the high seen 6 weeks ago at 97.24. The rally has been almost straight up, given that for the first 15 months of the rally, the biggest correction had been 4.5%.

MSFT has now had 2 corrections over the past 2.5 months of 12.8% and 10.5% and just this past week rallied to within $.17 cents of the all-time high at 97.24 seen in March and failed to break through, now showing a successful retest of that high on the daily chart as well as a double top. In addition, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 93.42 will be seen this week. If that occurs, a successful retest of the all-time high and a double top will occur on the weekly chart as well.

More importantly, MSFT finds itself presently 72% above the 100-week MA and in the last 20 years the most the stock has been above that line is 44%, meaning that its now highly likely that some form of correction or even downtrend of consequence is likely to start, given that the 100-week MA is currently at 70.50.

Last but not least, the last 2 times that a double top was built was in Nov14/Apr15 and again in Dec15/Apr16 at 50.05 and 49.54 and at 56.85 and 56.77 and in both of those occasions a 20% and a 15.4% correction occurred respectively. With the double top now at 97.24 and 97.07 (last week's high), a correction of anywhere from 15-20% would mean a drop down to somewhere between 77.65 and 82.50.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, MSFT shows minor to decent resistance at 96.07 and decent to perhaps strong between 97.07 and 97.24.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, MSFT shows minor to perhaps decent support at 90.65, minor at 89.48 and decent between 87.08 and 87.50. Below that, there is decent support at 83.83 that is further supported by the 200-day MA, currently at 83.05.

The double top in MSFT has been seen twice before and each time a correction of consequence occurred. With all the additional factors involved (such as the space between the price now and the 100-week MA and the weakness being seen in most stocks as well as in the indexes), this trade has a high probability of success.

Sales between 95.30 and 96.00 and using a stop loss at 97.35 and having an 83.50 objectives will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and closing above the previous week's high and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 39.89 will be seen this week. If that occurs, it will also mean that the intraweek low at 33.21 will have been tested successfully with last week's low at 33.65. To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the stock shows minor resistance at 40.82 and minor to decent at 41.92. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, support is minor at 38.79 and minor to decent at 36.80. On a daily closing basis, the chart shows decent resistance between 41.10 and 41.19 and minor to perhaps decent support at 37.77 and then minor at 36.62. Chart suggests the stock will trade between those support and resistance levels this week but ultimately (within the next 2-4 weeks) a new multi-year high is likely to be made. The stock is showing a bullish flag formation on the weekly closing chart that offers an upside target of 54.35 to be reached within 19-26 weeks. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but it should be a choppy week with both red and green seen.

CCJ has appreciated in value 17% over the past 4 weeks, likely due to commodities and metals having a re-awakening, and in the process has given a buy signal on both the daily and weekly closing charts. The stock made a new 52-week weekly closing high on Friday by 1 point (previous high weekly close at 10.56 was seen the 3rd week of July) and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.67 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 10.68 and then decent at 11.18. Above 11.18 there is some intraweek resistance at 11.91, at 12.37 and strong at 13.31. Nonetheless, the likely target for the stock if the 11.18 level is broken is the 200-day MA, currently at 12.40. Intraweek support should now be found between 10.15 and 10.23. Any daily close below 10.03 would be a deflator. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CLF made a new 6-week high this past week and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.03 is likely to be seen this week. The company did report better than expected earnings on Friday that rallied the stock 10% above Thursday's close but the stock had already given a buy signal on Wednesday when a new 4-week high has been made. To the upside, minor to decent intraweek resistance is found at 8.17 that is broken will give a buy signal on the weekly chart. Above that level, there is decent resistance found at 9.15 that if broken would turn the chart from a long-term downtrend to a short-term uptrend. Intraweek support is now pivotal at 7.02, which includes the 200-day MA, currently at 7.20. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but they need to get above 8.17 in order to support the better than expected earnings report and generate new buying interest.

ENG continues to trade in the 4+ month trading range between .73 and .99, without giving a clue as to what the future is to bring. The stock did close in the green on Friday as well as on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .88 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock continues to build a solid bottom formation that suggests a higher probability of a breakout than of a breakdown. Intraweek support will be found this week at .81 and resistance at .91. Decent and pivotal resistance is found at .99 and the same can be said about support at .73 and .75. Probabilities favor another uneventful week.

FCEL idled this past week, having generated an inside week but with a close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.96 will be seen this week. On a positive note though, the stock seems to be building a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 1.64 to 2.11 and the flag being the trading range the past 8 days between 1.96 and 2.11. A break above the top of the flag at 2.11 will offer an objective of 2.43. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 2.17 and then stronger and more pivotal at 2.49. Intraweek support is found at 1.96 and daily close support of consequence at 1.85. Probabilities favor the bulls.

MNK made another new all-time low weekly close on Friday but only by 3 points below the previous week's close, suggesting the bears are having trouble generating further downside of consequence. The bears have been unable to make a new intraweek low below the one seen on 4/12 (6 days ago) at 13.37 in spite of the fact that low was a spike low that should have generated additional follow through to the downside immediately. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 14.29 that if broken would suggest a rally to 14.61. Longer term resistance is found at 15.40. Support remains at the all-time low at 13.32. Probabilities for this week are even, given the inability to take the stock lower during the past 6 trading days.

RENN generated a minor inside week but with a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 10.07 will be seen this week. On the daily chart, the stock has been building a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from the double bottom at 8.13 to 10.44 and the flag being presently built with a 10.07 low so far. Support is presently found at 10.07 but the chart suggests that level will be broken. Below 10.07 there is minor to perhaps decent intraday support at 9.67 but the 100 60-minute MA is currently at 9.74 and given the breakout seen recently, it is unlikely that line will be broken. The objective of the flag cannot yet be determined because the bottom of the present flag is likely to be broken this week. Nonetheless, using a potential low of the flag at 9.74, a breakout of the flag above 10.44 would offer a 12.04 objective. To the upside, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 11.18 and then minor to decent resistance at 11.98. Probabilities favor more backing and filling this week while building the flag but longer term the bulls have the edge.

TXN generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3 week high and then going below the previous week's low and closing near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 98.87 will be seen this week. The bulls continue to fail to rally the stock and therefore further downside, perhaps of consequence, is expected to be seen. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, decent support is found at 96.97 and on a daily closing basis at the 200-day MA, currently at 96.51. Below that level, there is minor support at 94.72 and then nothing until the 100-week MA, currently at 82.86, is reached. The original objective of the mention was 96.97 so consideration should be given to cover shorts at that level. Nonetheless, if the bears are able to close convincingly below the 200-day MA, the stock could be heading substantially lower. To the upside, there is minor to decent but likely pivotal resistance at last week's high at 105.90. As such, stop losses should now be placed at 106.00. Probabilities favor the bears this week.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .165 (new price 1.99).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .88.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.97 (new price (39.69).

4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.30. Stock closed on Friday at 7.72.

5) RENN - Purchased at 11.08. No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 10.19.

6) CCJ - Averaged long at 9.585 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.57.

7) MNK - Averaged long at 25.18 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.76.

9) BGTH - Liquidated at 3.70. Purchased at 5.07. Loss on the trade of $137 per 100 shares plus commissions.

10) TXN - Averaged short at 108.265 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 106.00. Stock closed on Friday at 99.96.

11) IBM - Covered shorts at 152.15. Averaged short at 157.47. Profit on the trade of $1065 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

12) FSLR - Covered shorts at 75.00. Averaged short at 72.755. Loss on the trade of $449 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.

13) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss now at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.99.

14) PTC - Covered shorts at 81.44. Shorted at 80.19. Loss on the trade of $125 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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