Issue #566
May 6, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Fed Does Not Raise Interest Rates in May. Indexes Rally!

DOW Friday closing price - 24262
SPX Friday closing price - 2663
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7209

Based solely on the weekly closes, the indexes ended up having an uneventful but mixed week, inasmuch as the DOW and the SPX closed slightly in the red and the NASDAQ slightly in the green. Nonetheless and for the 3rd time this year, the DOW and the SPX once again generated a successful retest of the 200-day MA's, suggesting that what happens next is likely to be indicative and decisive for the summer months.

All indexes closed near the highs of the week, suggesting that further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW above 24498, SPX above 2682 and NAZ above 7228) . Such an event will put the indexes near pivotal levels that if broken would give the bulls a decided edge for the summer that would suggest an attempt at new all-time highs would be the objective. A failure would likely generate the opposite effect and give the bears not only a decisive advantage for the summer but likely new lows for the year in both the DOW and the SPX.

The pivotal chart resistance levels are the April 18th highs (DOW at 24858, SPX at 2717 and NASDAQ at 7319). In the DOW and the SPX those highs represent the 100-day MA's that were broken on March 22nd and have not been broken to the upside since, and in the NAZ breaking that high would generate closure of the runaway gap at 7325 that has been in place since March 22nd as well.

It is possible and perhaps even likely that the traders will key on the only 2 economic reports of any consequence this week which are the PPI and CPI that come out on Wednesday and Thursday. Both reports are expected to come out at 2%, which has been the target of the Fed all year. Evidently, a higher number would be seen as a negative while a lower number a positive. In the past, these reports have not been catalytic to the market but given the presently pivotal nature of the trading areas being seen and that the traders are keying on interest rates as well as the U.S. Bond market at this time for decision making (earnings and other economic reports seem to have taken a back seat), it does seem that the traders could key on those reports this week for their decisions on what the index market will do this summer.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW will show minor resistance at 24534, minor to perhaps decent at 24622 and decent as well as pivotal at 24858. The SPX will show minor to perhaps decent resistance 2494 and then decent as well as pivotal at 2717. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 7255 and decent as well as pivotal at 7319.

To the downside, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent support between 23778 and 23828, which includes the 200-day MA, currently at 23765 and then strongly pivotal at last week's low at 23531. The SPX shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 2612, which includes the 200-day MA, currently at 2615 and then decent as well as pivotal at last week's low at 2594. The NASDAQ shows minor to decent support at 7084, minor to decent as well as short-term pivotal at last week's low at 6991, minor at 6926 and decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 6801.

The NASDAQ has continued to outperform the other indexes of late and that is supportive-to-the-overall-market, given that the Tech sector has been the driver to the upside during the past few years. As such, the only thing in question at this time is whether the traders feel strong enough about the near future of interest rates to attempt to resume the uptrend or whether they are still unsure of what the Fed will do. Evidently, the Fed is likely to be driven at this time by the inflation numbers as to whether to tighten more than expected or not. This is why this week's inflation numbers may be short-term pivotal.

Last week was a bit of a surprise given that the week started with the break of the 200-day MA's for the 3rd time in both the DOW and the SPX, suggesting that the traders would get on the sell side but on Wednesday after the FOMC rate decision not to raise interest rates in May was announced, the indexes turned around and rallied. How much follow through is seen this week, as well as how much buying strength the bulls have, is what will be asked this week. As such, this week is considered to be a pivotal and short-term decisive week. Probabilities still slightly favor the bears given that resistance level of consequence have not yet been broken.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no mentions this week given the pivotal nature of the trading and the lack of clear direction for the summer. Nonetheless, that could change during the week and mentions will be given on the message board when that happens.

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2018, as of 4/1

Loss of $2028 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for March per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

GS (long) $734

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

IBM (short) $235
TXN (short) $833

Total Profit for April, per 100 shares and after commissions $1802

Closed out losing trades for April per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

NONE

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

PTC (short) $357
FSLR (short) $833
MNK (long) $307
BHTG (long) $49

Total Loss for March, per 100 shares, including commissions $1546

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 4/30

CALM (short) $147
MSFT (short) $478
AXP (short) $131

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

ARNA(long) $10
CCJ(long) $288
CLF (long) $235
FCEL (long) $3
RENN (long) $114
FCEL (long) $13

Total $1419

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 4/30

NONE

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

ENG (long) $4

Total $4

Status of trades for month of April per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

Profit of $1671

Status of account/portfolio for 2018, as of 4/30

Loss of $357 using 100 shares traded per mention.



Updates on Held Stocks

ARNA bulls were in control of the stock this week, having made a new 6-week high and broken above the decent intraweek resistance at 41.92. Nonetheless, at the end of the week they fell a bit short of making a bull statement, given that they got up to the 2-year high weekly close at 43.37 on Thursday and Friday and yet were unable to close above that level on the weekly close on Friday. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 43.74 is expected to be seen this week. To the upside, there is minor intraweek resistance at 44.50 and decent at the 2-year high at 45.85. On a daily closing basis though, there is decent and likely pivotal resistance at 44.00. Evidently, this coming week is short-term pivotal given the resistance of consequence found here between 43.37 (weekly close) and 44.00 (daily close). A red close on Monday would strengthen the minor red close seen on Friday, which would make it a successful retest of the 44.00 daily close high. Short-term intraweek support is now found at 38.78 that if broken would suggest that a drop down to 36.80 would be seen. Probabilities favor the bulls but this is a short-term pivotal area of resistance.

AXP came within $.27 cents of closing the gap down at 95.24 but with the index rally the stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday as well as a close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 100.37 than below last week's low at 95.51. The stock made a new all-time high 3 weeks ago at 102.96 and that high has not yet been tested on the weekly chart, suggesting that a rally above last week's high will end up being that required/needed retest. As such, the probabilities do favor the bulls this week. By the same token, the gap down at 95.24 remains open and it is unlikely to stay open for the longer term, meaning that at some point the recent correction is likely to resume. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 99.70, at 100.17 and decent at 101.65. Consideration can be given to taking profits on Monday and re-shorting the stock above 101.00. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CALM made a new 4-week low and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 45.60 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the 44.13 to 45.60 area is considered decent intraweek support given that on 4 different occasions over a 53 week period of time (between May 2015 and May 2016) it held strongly and each time generated a rally of at least 13% from that level. On a weekly closing basis, the support is found between 46.00-46.60. With the stock likely heading below last week's low this week and the 200-week MA currently being at 44.01, as well as the established support found in this area, consideration should be given to covering the short positions this week on any drop below 45.00, unless the index market goes south in a decisive way. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, having made a new 5-week low and then closing in the green and in the middle of the day's trading range, leaving the door open for either Friday's high at 47.00 and Friday's low at 45.60 being broken on Monday. Probabilities do favor the bulls for Monday and above 47.00 there is no resistance until minor to decent resistance is found between 48.00 and 48.40. With the stock closing at 46.35 on Friday and the downside objective not likely to be more than 44.00 and resistance above being at 48.40, consideration can be given to taking profits at Friday's closing price as from this level the risk/reward ratio is no better than 1-1.

CCJ generated a new 13-month intraweek high and a new 14-month weekly closing high this past week and stock closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.67 will be seen this week. The upside objective for the stock is the 200-week MA, currently at 12.33. That is a line that has delineated the downtrend for the past 7 years and has not been seen or touched since March 2014, meaning that it is highly unlikely that the bulls will be able to break that line at this time, at least not break the line for more than a week or two before a failure signal is given. On an intraweek basis, decent resistance is found at 13.36 and given the momentum the bulls presently enjoy, it is possible that on an intraweek basis the bulls will be able to take the stock to that level. Nonetheless, the chart does suggest that a drop back down to at least the 10.81 level (and probably the $10 demilitarized zone) will be seen if the bulls are unable to establish themselves above the 200-week MA. As such, consideration should be given to taking profits anywhere between 12.30 and 13.30 and looking to re-purchase the stock thereafter on drops down to at least 10.85. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CLF traded every day this past week (and for the past 11 days) around the 200-day MA, currently at 7.20, without generating a single close below the line, meaning that the bulls have now been able to make a strong statement of support. On Friday, the bulls were able to generate a positive reversal day as well as a close on the highs of the week, not only suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 7.70 will be seen this week but also establish convincingly that no further downside below the 200-day MA, is likely to be seen without a negative fundamental change. Pivotal resistance is found at 8.03. Above that level, further resistance is found at 8.17 and at 8.77 and longer term pivotal at 9.15. Bulls are likely to target a break of the resistance at 8.03 this week and if successful (now likely), the chart outlook will give the bulls a decided edge for the summer. Intraweek support is now decent as well as pivotal at 7.08. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

ENG continues to trade in the 4+ month trading range between .73 and .99, without giving a clue as to what the future is to bring. The stock generated a new 4-week low at .78 but then closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .88 will be seen this week. If that occurs, it is possible that a new attempt at the highs of the trading range will occur. Nonetheless, the traders are likely to continue trading in this established trading range until the earnings report comes out on May 14th. Decent and pivotal resistance is found at .99 and the same can be said about support at .73 and .75. Probabilities favor another uneventful week.

FCEL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low but then reversing to close in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.96 will be seen this week. On this small selling occasion, the bears failed to get the stock down to the 200-day MA, currently at 1.78, as the low for the week was 1.81, suggesting that the bulls continue to increase their edge after 7 months of building and testing support over and over again. Minor resistance is found at 1.99 and then nothing but stronger at 2.10/2.11. Traders are likely to wait for the earnings report that comes out June 7th, meaning that for the next 4 weeks much of the same kind of sideways trading is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the chances of something positive occurring before that have increased. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

MSFT generated an inside week as well as a red weekly close, suggesting that the bulls have run out of ammunition given that the company reported better than expected earnings 2 weeks ago and made a new all-time intraweek high. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 96.40 will be seen this week. If that occurs but the all-time high at 97.90 is not broken, it would likely become a successful and required/needed retest of that level that would then bring in new selling interest. Minor resistance is found at 96.07 and then minor to decent between 97.07 and 97.24. Pivotal support is now found at last week's low at 92.40. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only for a rally above 96.40. Overall, the summer future of the stock will depend on what the index market does this week.

RENN announced this week that they were going to give a cash dividend but in the process the shares would be somewhat diluted on a 1-5 basis. The stock took a 20% tumble in price (14% on a weekly closing basis) based on the announcement. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 8.32 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bears were not able to break the double bottom at 8.02/8.13 in spite of the negative reaction, suggesting that the worst of the tumble might be over and that the stock will not continue lower. If the bears can get the stock down to 8.01/8.13 then it is likely that a break would occur and that a drop down to the next support level at 7.58 would be seen. Resistance is now minor to decent at 9.75 that if broken would go a long way in negating the announcement. This is mostly a fundamental change that I personally cannot evaluate, meaning that the chart levels mentioned above are the only thing I can go by at this time. Evidently, whatever action is seen this week will be indicative.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .16 (new price 1.92).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .85.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.99 (new price (39.99).

4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.30. Stock closed on Friday at 7.29.

5) RENN - Purchased at 11.08. No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 10.23.

6) CCJ - Averaged long at 9.585 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.38.

7) MNK - Averaged long at 25.18 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.59.

9) CALM - Shorted at 50.17. Stop loss is at 50.55. Stock closed on Friday at 49.00

10) TXN - Covered shorts at 99.63. Averaged short at 108.265. Profit on the trade of $1726 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

11) MSFT - Shorted at 95.65 and 96.17. Averaged short at 95.91 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 98.00. Stock closed on Friday at 95.82.

12) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss now at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.99.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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