Issue #565
April 22, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls Showing Inability to Rally!

DOW Friday closing price - 24311
SPX Friday closing price - 2669
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7119

All the indexes generated an uneventful chart week given that they traded "within" the highs and lows seen in April without any bullish or bearish statements being made (resistance or support levels broken). Then again, it can be said that it was a "win" for the bears as the time period encompasses the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter and that is a time that for the past few years has generally belonged to the bulls. It is important to note that most of the earnings reports that have come out (especially the catalytic ones such as GS, JPM, NFLX, FB, and AMZN) have been better or "much better" than expected and the lack of a bullish statement being made after the report does suggest that the traders are not presently considering a resumption of the uptrend for the summer months.

The indexes did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 24579, SPX at 2683 and NASDAQ at 7197) will be seen this week while the traders wait for the earnings and economic reports of consequence that come out (AAPL earnings on Tuesday afternoon, ISM Index on Wednesday, and Jobs report on Friday). Nonetheless and given that the resistance and support parameters are now clearly set using the highs and lows for April (DOW at 24858 and 23344, SPX at 2717 and 2553, and NAZ at 7319 and 6805), the stage is now set for some mid-term decisions to be made in the next 2 weeks as the indexes get into the slow summer months.

Right across the board, the charts of the indexes seem to be suggesting a propensity for a downside resolution since the DOW and the SPX now show 2 successful retests of the all-time highs and the NASDAQ shows 1 but also shows a failure signal when a new all-time high was made in March (above the high made in January ) but 1 week later the index closed below the previous all-time high.

Such a scenario has to be considered a negative for the bulls given that most of the earnings reports that have come out so far have been better than expected and it was the earnings quarter that was supposed to generate resumption of the uptrend if and when earnings supported that idea.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW will show minor to perhaps decent resistance at last week's high at 24652 and decent as well as pivotal at 24858. The SPX will show minor to perhaps decent resistance 2494 and then decent as well as pivotal at 2717. The NASDAQ will show minor to perhaps resistance at 7255 and decent as well as pivotal at 7319.

To the downside, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent support at 23828 and then decent as well as pivotal at 23344. The SPX shows minor to perhaps 2612 and then decent and likely pivotal at 2553. Below that level, there is decent support at the 2018 low at 2532. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps 6926 and then decent and possibly pivotal support at 6805. Below that, there is decent and pivotal support at the year's low at 6630.

The NASDAQ has been the key index this year and given that both NFLX and AMZN reported "blow out" earnings that generated new all-time intraweek highs but then failed to confirm the breakouts on the weekly closing chart, strongly suggests that this is no longer market that is keyed on earnings (as it has been in the past) but on the future of inflation, interest rates, and the deficit. As such, the reports due out this week are highly unlikely to offer much help to the bulls.

Before the beginning of the earnings quarter came into view, the action being seen in the index charts, especially the DOW and SPX suggested that a break of the 25-month uptrend (as defined by the 200-day MA's) was likely to be broken and that a sideways period of trading for the summer was likely to be the end result. With only 1 week left of important earnings and economic reports, as well as the failures to resume the uptrend with the previous good earnings reports, does suggest that within 2 weeks the 200-day MA's in the indexes will not only be tested but likely broken. In the DOW that line is presently at 23702, in the SPX at 2611, and in the NASDAQ at 6832. The MA lines in all indexes have been tested successfully on 2 occasions this year but if seen again, they will likely be broken.

The remaining earnings and economic reports scheduled for this week are likely to be supportive of the index market, at least the anticipation of them. Nonetheless and just like with the NFLX and AMZN earnings reports, the probabilities of a sell off after the reports come out is high.

The parameters are clearly set right now with the April highs and lows of the indexes being indicative. Nonetheless, it is expected that traders will now likely be selling rallies rather than buying dips. Probabilities now favor the bears.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The beginning of the earnings quarter has not brought about the rally that has been seen in other quarters, suggesting that traders are not feeling the same way (bullish) about the market as in the past few years. Most earnings reports that have already come out have been better than expected and yet the indexes and most of those stocks that have reported find themselves either at or lower than prior to the reports. As such, the idea that there is more downside to be seen is gathering momentum. Mentions this week are all sales.

SALES

AXP Friday Closing Price - 99.61

AXP reported better than expected earnings on 4/19 and a new all-time intraweek and daily closing high was made at 102.96 and at 102.37, above the previous all-time intraweek high at 102.36 and the previous all-time daily closing high at 101.64. Nonetheless, the very next day (Friday's weekly close) a failure signal was given when the stock not only failed to follow through to the upside and closed in the red at 100.79 and below the previous all-time daily closing high but also below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 101.08.

AXP closed in the red this past Friday at 99.61, meaning that the all-time high weekly close from January at 101.08 has now been tested successfully and a double top at 101.08/100.79 is now in place.

AXP gapped up after the earnings report between 95.24 and 99.05 and that gap has now started to be closed given that last week's low was 97.90. With the failure signals given and the now successful retest of the all-time high weekly close, the probabilities of the gap being closed are now high.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, AXP shows minor resistance at 100.51 and decent between 101.63 and 102.12. Decent and likely longer term pivotal resistance is found at 102.96.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, AXP shows minor support at 97.90 and a tiny bit stronger at 96.35 and then nothing until minor to perhaps decent at 93.20, which is strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at that same price. Further and decent support is found at 89.96 and at 87.54.

It is interesting to note that a scenario very similar to this one occurred 4 years ago in January 2014 when a new all-time high was made but the stock then failed to follow through to the upside the following week and a correction of 11% occurred over the ensuing 5 weeks. Nonetheless, on that occasion the bulls were able to make a new all-time weekly closing high (unlike this one where a double top has been built). Subsequently on a successful retest of that new all-time weekly closing high, AXP went on to correct 47% over a 55-week period of time.

It also needs to be mentioned that AXP has not been the only stock that has made a new all-time high off of the earnings report this quarter and then failed to confirm the breakout. Both AMZN and NFLX have now done the same, suggesting that earnings is not the key issue the traders are now following.

If the indexes do get into a sideways to down trend for the summer (likely), AXP is likely to get into a correction of consequence with the 200-week MA, currently at 79.17, as a possible downside objective, to be reached over the next 3 months.

As far as the desired entry point into the AXP trade is concerned, here is where some problems exist. The chart says there is a decent chance of the stock rallying back up to the 101.65-102.17 area. By the same token, on 5 of the past 6 trading days, the bears have been in control of the stock and presently the stock is below the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 99.85, and has been for the past 3 days, meaning that a rally may not occur. If the indexes fail to generate a rally on Monday, it is unlikely that the stock will rally, meaning that shorting the stock at Friday's close at 99.61 would be the way to go. If the indexes rally on Monday, waiting for an entry point above 101.50 would be the way to go. Either way, the objective of the trade is the 200-week MA, meaning that the only thing in question is the risk/reward ratio.

Sales of AXP at Friday's close at 99.61 and using a stop loss at 103.03 and having a 79.85 objective will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

I am looking to add shorts in both presently held short stocks (CALM and MSFT) but will wait to give desired entry points until the stocks and the indexes open up on Monday. In addition, I am also looking to short SHOP around the 127.70 area with a stop loss at 131.35 and an objective of $100. Nonetheless, the company reports earnings on Tuesday morning before the opening bell and the earnings report could skew the chart considerably as there is quite a bit of "open air" to the upside as well as to the downside. As such, I will not give a mention until that report is out and some idea of where the stock will open on Tuesday is known.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA followed through to the upside off of the spike high rally seen the previous week but did it on a limited and not all convincing basis, given that the weekly close was only 30 points above the previous week's close and the week's high had no previous history of resistance. The close on Friday was in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that there is no clear direction for this coming week. Resistance of consequence is found at 41.92 that is unlikely to get broken without some fundamental or market help. Minor support is found between 38.79 and 38.90 and minor to decent at 36.80. A break of last week's high or low (41.12 and 38.90) will likely bring about further movement to resistance or support. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

CALM generated a negative reversal week, having gone above and below the previous week's high and low on Wednesday but then generating a red weekly close on Friday and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 47.71 will be seen this week. Last week's high and low have now become pivotal resistance and support levels for the stock, meaning that whichever is broken first will generate additional trading interest in that direction. On what could be a strong negative note, the red weekly close on Friday has now generated a double top on the weekly closing chart at 49.83 and 49.70 (50.40 and 50.45 on the intraweek chart) and if confirmed this week with another red close will give the bears strong ammunition to push the stock down to the support between $40 and $41. Probabilities now favor the bears.

CCJ generated an uneventful inside week but closed near the highs of the week on Friday, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.56 will be seen this week. On a possible negative note, the red weekly close on Friday keeps the stock within the weekly closing chart parameters of resistance at 10.57 that have been in place during the past 54 weeks, meaning that the bulls still have more to do before they can claim clear success. On a positive note, the stock generated a positive reversal spike up day on Friday, suggesting that if there are no negatives that come out over the weekend that the bulls could establish control as early as Monday, if and when a daily close above 10.71 occurs. Intraweek support should now be found at Friday's low at 9.91 that if broken would give the bears some new ammunition. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

CLF bulls were unable to follow through to the upside this past week off of the previous week's spike rally and closed in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.10 will be seen this week. On a positive note though, the bulls were able to close above the 200-day MA, currently at 7.20, every day this week, suggesting that the bears have given up the control they possessed the previous 3 weeks. The stock is showing an open gap between 6.95 and 7.04 that is likely going to be targeted for closure this week given that there is no reason for the gap to remain open. Nonetheless, once the gap is closed, the bulls should be back in control. The building of a support base has been going on for over 2 years and now the chart suggests that resolution is likely to be seen over the next 2 weeks. The 200-week MA is currently at 6.62 and a close or even a break of that level on an intraweek basis would be a strong negative. Pivotal resistance is found at 8.03 that if broken would resolve the issue in favor of the bulls. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG continues to trade in the 4+ month trading range between .73 and .99, without giving a clue as to what the future is to bring. The stock generated an uneventful inside week, failing to follow through to the upside on the previous week's mini spike up rally and close near the highs of the week. The traders are likely to continue trading in this established trading range until the earnings report comes out on May 14th. Nonetheless, the stock continues to build a solid bottom formation that suggests a higher probability of a breakout than of a breakdown. Intraweek support will be found this week at .81 and resistance at .91. Decent and pivotal resistance is found at .99 and the same can be said about support at .73 and .75. Probabilities favor another uneventful week.

FCEL continues to build a support foundation of consequence above the 200-day MA, currently at 1.76, given that the line has been tested successfully on 5 occasions since the initial break above the line occurred in September. Resistance has continued to be found at 2.10 but there are now multiple highs (3) at that level and that suggests that in time that level will be broken and the bulls gain control. The company reports earnings on June 7th and that is likely to be the needed catalyst for the new uptrend, given the positive fundamental outlook presently in place. Minor but possibly short-term pivotal support is found at 1.85. Below that level, the MA line at 1.76 is likely to be decent support on a daily closing basis. Longer term pivotal support is found at 1.64 that if broken would do chart damage. Daily close resistance is found at 2.06 and longer term pivotal at 2.26. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls at this time.

MNK made yet another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing low this past week but the stock remains strongly hesitant to go lower, given that for the past 3 weeks the bears have only been able to generate an additional 2% deterioration in the price ($.20). Contrary to the previous 2 weeks, the stock closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 13.68 will be seen this week, which in turn suggests some short-covering might start to be seen this week. Volume has dropped by almost 50% over the past 2 months, suggesting a lack of interest in trading the stock is being seen. Resistance is found at 14.29 and at 15.40. A break of the former would suggest a low has been found and a break of the latter would suggest a short-covering rally would likely occur. Support is found now at 13.05. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

MSFT reported better than expected earnings on Friday and the stock made a new all-time intraweek high but like with NFLX and AMZN, the bulls were unable to generate a new all-time weekly closing high above the previous at 96.77, suggesting that resumption of the uptrend will require help from the indexes. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 97.90 than below last week's low at 90.28 but on Friday the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the day's trading range and if Friday's low at 93.91 is broken on Monday, it will be a negative sign. Intraweek resistance should be found at the previous all-time intraweek high at 97.24 and support and intraday support is found at 92.44. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

RENN broke the multi-day low support at 10.07 on Wednesday and dropped down to the bottom of the $10 demilitarized zone with a low at 9.67. Nonetheless, the bulls recovered by the end of the week to generate a green weekly close and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.37 will be seen this week. Minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance is found at 10.44 that if broken would suggest a rally up to the next resistance at 11.18 if not up to the stronger intraweek resistance at 11.98. Support is now likely to be found at 9.67 that if broken would weaken the chart, at least on a short-term basis. The chart suggests that a bullish flag formation has been built that if broken (a rally above 10.44) would offer an 11.98 objective. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .16 (new price 1.92).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .85.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.99 (new price (39.99).

4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.30. Stock closed on Friday at 7.29.

5) RENN - Purchased at 11.08. No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 10.23.

6) CCJ - Averaged long at 9.585 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.38.

7) MNK - Averaged long at 25.18 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.59.

9) CALM - Shorted at 50.17. Stop loss is at 50.55. Stock closed on Friday at 49.00

10) TXN - Covered shorts at 99.63. Averaged short at 108.265. Profit on the trade of $1726 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

11) MSFT - Shorted at 95.65 and 96.17. Averaged short at 95.91 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 98.00. Stock closed on Friday at 95.82.

12) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss now at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.99.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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