Issue #576
Jul 15, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Unable to Generate New Selling, Bears Run and Bulls Gain Back Control.

DOW Friday closing price - 25019
SPX Friday closing price - 2801
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7825

The indexes all rallied this past week in anticipation that the new earnings quarter reports will continue to be better than expected. The NASDAQ made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high on Friday and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7843 will be seen this week. The SPX broke the 6-month intraweek resistance at 2801, as well as the weekly close resistance at 2786 and it too closed on the highs of the week and now may target its all-time high at 2872. The DOW followed the upside pattern as well and made a new 4-week high, giving support to the other indexes. As such, the traders seem to have put the potential negatives of the Trade War aside for now and are betting that earnings will continue to be good enough to overcome the potential negatives of the Trade War.

The first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter began on Friday and for the past couple of years it has been a period where the bulls have had "the edge", given that earnings have continued to improve consistently. The pattern is expected to be maintained this quarter.

The Tech industry remains as the leader of the market with stocks such as AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, FB, and NFLX leading the way. By the same token, if there are to be any negative surprises it is likely to be in this industry, given that PE ratios are already high and difficult to maintain (AMZN PE is presently at 372). As a possible example, on Friday, NFLX fell 4.3% in value due to a lowering of expectations regarding the earnings report.

The burden of proof though, remains on the shoulders of the bulls, meaning that any disappointment in the earnings of any of the big 5 stocks could trigger a sell off of consequence. Nonetheless and talking about the big 5, only NFLX reports this week (Monday afternoon) and already the expectations for the report have been lowered, meaning that it is not likely to be a negative catalyst this week even if it comes in lower than expected. As such, the upside movement seen last week (in the manner of resistance levels breaking) is likely to continue for at least this coming week.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 25086 and decent as well as pivotal at 25402. The SPX shows no intraweek resistance until very minor at 2839, minor at 2852 and decent as well as long term pivotal at the all-time high at 2872. The NASDAQ shows no resistance above until psychological at 8000.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 24663. Below that, there is minor to decent support at 24247 and decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 23997. The SPX shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 2770. Below that level, there is very minor support at 2743 and then nothing until decent at 2691. The NASDAQ shows minor but likely short-term pivotal support at 7696 and then very minor at 7635 and minor but likely pivotal at 7595.

With only NFLX reporting this week for the NASDAQ, attention is likely to fall on the shoulders of the SPX that not only has GS and MS reporting but also has (on a chart basis) the runaway gap between 2808 and 2812 from February 2nd to deal with. It is the only index that still shows "a" negative chart "formation" that the bears can key on to defend the bear side. On the other side of the coin, closure of the runaway gap will give new ammunition to the bulls for further upside.

The Trade War scenario negatives remain very much alive but for now they are "in the background". It is a potentially big negative but it is not necessarily a short-term negative as the effects of the Trade War are not likely to be felt or even evident for a few months. As such, traders have put that aside as they key on short-term trading that is supported by history of rallying during the first 3 weeks of each earnings quarter.

There are a few economic reports this week that could nudge the indexes slightly in one direction or the other, with Retail Sales coming out on Monday, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization on Tuesday and Philadelphia Fed on Thursday. Nonetheless, it will still be mostly about earnings and other than the ones mentioned above, IBM, AXP, J&J, MSFT, HON, GE, and TRV also report this week.

It is unlikely (though not out of the realm of possibility) that selling interest of consequence will be seen this week. As such, the big question will be whether the bulls have enough momentum or strength to go just slightly higher or strongly higher. The key for that is likely to be the SPX and the runaway gap at 2812. If that is closed, the breakaway gap up at 2851 will be targeted and that will make it a strong week for the bulls. Given that the reports this week and not all that pivotal for the overall market, I would say the probabilities do favor the bulls but only for a slight rally, suggesting a small trading range for the week with the bulls failing to close the gap.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

This week is not a good week to trade given that the traders are waiting to see how the earnings reports come out. I was not planning on having any mentions but I did find one company that has been moving lower in spite of the rally in the index market and it's because of its specific fundamental situation and chart picture. In addition, I do believe the indexes will head lower after the earnings reports for the next 3 weeks come out and short positions are the ones that show the most promise for the mid-term. This stock is likely to rally a bit this week and as such could get to the desired entry point where a short is possible with a decent probability rating and a good risk/reward ratio.

CALM Friday Closing Price - 45.70

CALM made a new 56-week high on June 27th and on June 28th the stock fell 10% in value. There was no news to cause the drop but the stock had gotten to a PE ratio of 82.50 in an industry where PE ratio's average 19.6. The stock went from 52.30 to 45.30 in a matter of 4 days and did fall down to the 200-day MA, currently at 45.45. The stock did bounce back up to 47.85 after hitting the MA but further upside has not occurred and for the past 4 days it has been heading south in spite of the rally in the index market.

On a chart basis, CALM is showing a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 52.30 to 45.30 and the flag the rally up to 47.85. A break of the flag would offer a 40.85 objective which coincides with the next established support level below on both the daily and weekly charts.

CALM is a stock that for the past 4 years has traded 80% of the time between $35 and $50 and 50% of the time between $35 and $45, meaning that further downside below the present area is a decent possibility.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, CALM shows resistance at 47.85 and again at 48.40. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the stock shows pivotal support at 45.30 and then very minor at 43.18 and then nothing until decent at 41.05.

The main reason for the short mention on CALM is the bearish inverted flag formation and the high PE ratio that makes the stock sellable, especially in the food industry that normally has not supported high PE ratios in its history.

The 200-day MA held up on this most recent drop and may hold up again this week given the supportive nature of the index market and the fact that the inverted flag formation has a decent probability of requiring 1 more mini rally. Nonetheless, even though the stock has stayed above the 200-day MA for the past 10 months, the stock traded below the line for the previous 21 months before that, meaning that if the line is broken, a downtrend for several months or more could occur.

I do believe that CALM could generate a small rally back up to the 46.85 level where some minor resistance is found as well as the 200 10-minute MA. I would be a seller at that price.

Sales of CALM above 46.70 and using a 47.95 stop loss and having a 40.85 objective will offer 5-1 risk/reward ratio. The 47.95 stop loss should be mental as there is further resistance at 48.40 but if 48.40 is broken, I would cover the shorts.

My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA has been mostly idling for the past 10 days, trading in a $2 range between 43.30 and 45.30 that gives no clues as to what direction the stock will take in the near future. The last time this small type of trading range occurred for 2 weeks in a row was 6 weeks ago and the end result was an $8.50 drop in price. As mentioned last week, the stocks seems to be building a bearish inverted flag formation that if broken (a drop below 41.50) offers a 36.80 objective, which is also where the 200-day MA is currently at. Resistance is found at 45.46 and stronger at 45.85. Support is found at 43.06 and stronger as well as pivotal at 41.50. The stock has not been reacting to the index market and therefore a rally in the indexes may not help the traders decide on a direction. As such and based on the chart, the bears have the edge.

CLF made a new 9-week low last week, having broken the previous low at 8.13 by 2 points. Nonetheless, the new low did not generate any new selling and the stock recovered to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.58 is expected to be seen this week. The company reports earnings next Friday morning and it is likely that report will be a catalyst to break out of the $1 trading range between 9.14 and 8.11 that is has been in since May 10th. The 11 analysts following the stock have a median target of $10 with a high estimate of $12 and a low estimate of $8.00. The chart is showing a positive outlook and with last week's low having been 8.11, the probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG continued to trade within its 7-week trading range between 1.06 and 1.47, having traded last week between 1.19 and 1.41. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high than below last week's low. The 200-week MA is now down to 1.37, suggesting that if the stock goes above last week's high that a break of that line could occur at the end of the week. A weekly close above 1.40 would also break a decent double top resistance that has been in place for the past 14-months. The stock is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the really from .78 to 1.47 and the flag being the trading range the past 7 weeks between 1.06 and 1.47. A break above the top of the flag will offer a 1.75 objective. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FCEL has been in a small trading range for the past 3 weeks between 1.30 and 1.45, suggesting that the selling interest seen after the last earnings report has waned. By the same token, the bulls have not been successful in generating any new buying interest, having been unable to even generate a rally back up to the original breakdown point on a weekly closing basis at 1.65. This suggests that the probabilities continue to favor the bears for further downside. Support is decent at 1.25 and that could be the overall downside target. By the same token, the bulls need some positive fundamental piece of news just to recover to where the stock was when it broke down and that doesn't seem to be "in the cards" at this time. As such, the stock is likely to continue to languish in this area for at least the next few weeks.

FSLR generated a red weekly close, the first in 4 weeks, suggesting that the bulls have given up on trying to generate further recovery. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 53.30 will be seen this week. The 55.70/55.75 has now been confirmed as a new and likely pivotal resistance level. Intraweek support is found at 52.11, at 51.42 and decent between 50.23 and 50.57. The stock is still showing an open gap at 48.08 that is highly likely to be closed at some point. The stock reports earnings on July 26th (a week from next Thursday) and it is likely that report will be pivotal and in my opinion, likely pivotal in favor of the bulls. As such, the probabilities do favor the stock heading lower over the next week and targeting closure of the gap. Purchases of additional shares should be considered between 48.00 and 48.50. Probabilities favor the bears this week but overall, it is difficult to see the stock fundamentally staying below $50 for very long.

TWNK bulls were unable to generate follow through to the upside last week, off of the close on the highs of the week the week before, and as such a red week occurred with a close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.36 will be seen this week. The long-term trend remains down but the short-term trend remains supportive, suggesting that something of consequence is likely to occur over the next couple of weeks. The company reports earnings on August 8th and it is likely that report will be catalytic. Short-term pivotal support on a weekly closing basis is found at 13.33 and on an intraweek basis at 12.95. Resistance is now likely pivotal at 14.29 and confirmatory at 14.96. Probabilities favor the bears this week but likely only for a small move below last week's low and then some recovery by the end of the week.

UGAZ made a new 9 week low but reached a 5-point uptrend line that has been in place for the past 7 months and the selling stopped, at least for last Friday. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 53.81 is expected to be seen. By the same token and with this being an ETF, it is an index that doesn't always respond to normal week to week outlooks. Support is pivotal at 53.02 and resistance is also short-term pivotal at 58.50. Probabilities favor the bulls for the simple reason that there is no new news and a 5-point trend line is considered dependable support.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .11 (new price 1.33).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.31.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.42 (new price (44.18).

4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.01. Stock closed on Friday at 8.40.

5) TWNK - Averaged long at 13.50 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 12.85. Stock closed on Friday at 13.60.

7) UGAZ - Purchased at 54.71. Stop loss at 52.92. Stock closed on Friday at 54.55.

8) FSLR - Purchased at 61.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 54.06.

9) SN - Liquidated at 5.02. Purchased at 4.04. Profit on the trade of $98 per 100 shares minus commissions.

10) NE - Liquidated at 6.57. Averaged long at 5.905. Profit on the trade of $133 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

11) ARNA - Purchased at 41.93. Stop loss at 41.20. Stock closed on Friday at 44.18.

12) AXP - Shorted at 99.77. Covered shorts at 100.35. Loss on the trade of $58 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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