Issue #575 ![]() Jul 8, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Indexes Generate Failure Signals. Bears are in Short Term Control!
DOW Friday closing price - 24456
The indexes, at least in the case of the SPX and the NASDAQ, ended the 2 week correction, having generated a green weekly close above the previous week's high. The ISM Index and Jobs reports came in better than expected and over the past 7 months the indexes have rallied on 6 occasions off of better than expected reports, suggesting that once again the same pattern occurred. All the indexes closed on or near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen (DOW above 24520, SPX above 2764 and NAZ above 7695).
The earnings quarter begins on Friday with C, JPM, and WFC reporting. The first 3 weeks of any earnings quarter have generally been positive for the stock indexes given that the economy has continued to grow and earnings have generally been better than expected and that is not likely to change this month. Nonetheless, the earnings reports on Banks have not generally been catalytic to the market, meaning that it is unlikely that any movement of consequence will occur this week based on the earnings reports.
Expected earnings growth in the SPX is supposed to come in at 20% or better. By the same token, it is also anticipated that slightly more than 50% of the companies will show lower guidance, meaning that the reaction to the reports could be muted even if earnings are better than anticipated. The biggest and likely the most catalytic report this month will be GDP on July 27th. Numbers as high at 4.5% annual rate have been whispered but this past week those whispers have come down to about 3.8%.
The Trade War continues to be a big monkey wrench and this week $34 billion in Tariffs against China go into effect. The Tariff war is a negative to the market so how much earnings will discount the Tariff War negatives is a big question mark at this time.
Chart-wise, there are levels of resistance close-by that will be indicatively pivotal if broken. The most important is evidently the NASDAQ and the all-time high at 7806. The index closed on Friday just 118 points (1.6%) from the all-time high and if the bulls are able to make a new high it will cause the bears to likely go into hibernation. The SPX is only 32-42 points (1.2-1.8%) from 2 levels of resistance at 2791 and 2801 that if broken would open the door for a rally up to the all-time high at 2872. Given that these 2 resistance levels have not been broken for the past 17 weeks (in spite of the NAZ making a new all-time high in the meantime) means that a break of these resistance levels would also open the door for another bull run in the overall market.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor resistance at 24622, a bit stronger at 24858 and another bit stronger at 25806. The SPX shows minor resistance at 2774 and decent as well as likely pivotal at 2791. Above that level, pivotal resistance is found at 2801. The NASDAQ shows resistance at 7697, minor at 7768 and decent as well as longer term pivotal at the all-time high at 7806.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 24077 and short-term pivotal at 23997. The SPX shows minor to decent support at 2698 and short-term pivotal at 2691. The NASDAQ shows minor but likely short-term pivotal support at 7597 and decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 7419.
Barring any "new" information about the Trade War and the Tariffs that will begin this week, this coming week is likely to be all about the upside and not the downside. Last week's action and positive news about the economy has given the bulls new ammunition with which to once again test the resistance levels above. As such, the week will be more about the defense the bears can muster to prevent the new earnings quarter from becoming the reason for the index market to resume the uptrend.
On a possible negative note for the indexes, the inflation numbers (PPI and CPI) come out this week and if higher than anticipated (above 2%) it could have a dousing aspect to the expected rally/follow through.
The probabilities do favor the indexes having a slight bias to the upside this coming week but the negative factors that have been in place during the past few weeks, in the manner of the Trade War, will continue to hang over the market, meaning that it will likely be a week with both red and green being seen but both in limited quantities unless some surprises in the inflation numbers and/or the Trade War come out.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no mentions for this week. I do not expect this coming week to be indicative, volatile, or trend ranging enough for any trade to be done with any amount of desired profits to be made. In addition and given that the earnings quarter is to begin but the Trade War continues, it is even difficult to plan for taking a position with an outlook for the next few weeks, given that there is so much uncertainty as to what the immediate future is to bring. As such, it is likely a good week for a vacation.
In addition, Saturday was my Birthday and my wife and kids took me out all day, meaning that I had a lot less time this week to search for stocks that may have an agenda of their own this week (not following the indexes in general) and that I could do a trade on. I will try to make up for this the following week or during the week (on the message board) if something comes up that moves the market.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA followed through to the upside off of the previous week's positive reversal week but much of it (if not all) could be credited to the rally in the indexes, given that the stock closed 2.7% above the previous week's close and the NASDAQ closed 2.6% above the previous week's close. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 45.35 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless and like with the indexes, resistance levels above require positive news to break and that is not likely to happen this week. The stock traded in a $2.06 trading range this past week and given that the probabilities are high that the stock will reach 45.85 this week, the trading range for this week is likely to be something like 43.79 to 45.85. Intraweek support is found at 43.06 and then pivotal at 41.50. Probabilities do not favor either support or resistance breaking this week. CLF generated an uneventful inside week though the close was near the highs of the week, suggesting follow through to the upside above last week's high at 8.65 will be seen this week. The stock for the past 8 weeks (with the exception of the one breakout week) has traded consistently in a $.47 cent trading range between 8.21 and 8.68 (based on a weekly close). With the earnings report due out on July 20th, the probabilities strongly favor the stock continuing to do the same for the next 8 trading days. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 8.11 and pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 9.15. ENG generated a very uneventful inside week, having traded in a $.08 cent trading range and closing $.04 cents lower than the previous week's close. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.28 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock has traded generally sideways for the past 6 weeks and there is no reason to believe that will change this week. Weekly close resistance is found at 1.40 and support at 1.10. FCEL generated an uneventful week but the bulls were able to close out the week in the green for the first time in the past 5 weeks, suggesting that the selling interest has waned. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.45 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the bears remain with the "edge" given that the 52-week uptrend has been broken and will not be negated unless a weekly close above 1.65 occurs. Nonetheless, support is decent at 1.25 and based on the action last week, it is unlikely that much further downside will be seen. Probabilities favor the stock trading between 1.25 and 1.65 for the near future or at least until the next earnings report comes out on September 8th. FSLR generated an uneventful inside week but the stock did close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 54.74 will be seen this week. The stock has now closed green 3 weeks in a row, meaning that the previous selling interest has waned. By the same token, the gains have been minimal and not even reaching established resistance levels, meaning that there is no buying interest of consequence either. The recent trading has been in a $5 trading range and at this moment and until the earnings report comes out on July 26th (13 trading days), the probabilities suggest more of the same will be seen. Minor resistance is found at 55.70 and again at 56.88 and minor support is found at 50.23 and again at 48.50. Probabilities favor more of the same this week. NE generated an uneventful inside week as well as a close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting an equal chance of going above last week's high at 6.32 than below last week's low at 6.85. By the same token, the same uneventful comment cannot be made when looking at the daily chart, given that the stock tested successfully the runaway gap 5.80 with the 5.85 low and a positive reversal day on Friday as well as generating a successful retest of the 14-month breakout high at 6.01 with a close on Thursday at 5.96 and a green close on Friday at 6.09, which does suggest that the recent uptrend has been confirmed and is likely to continue forward. Minor to decent intraweek resistance is found at 6.51, minor at 6.70, and minor to perhaps decent at 7.03. Minor support is found at 5.85, minor to perhaps decent at 5.44 and decent at 5.09. Probabilities favor the bulls given that oil is on an uptrend and further upside is expected to be seen and the stock is on a breakout above decent intraweek double top resistance. SN generated an inside week but made a new 5-month daily and weekly closing high on Friday and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 4.70 will be seen this week. The stock has now spent 7 trading days above the 200-day MA, currently at 4.22, meaning that the breakout has now been confirmed convincingly and that an uptrend is now occurring. There is no resistance of consequence above until 5.25 is reached. Further and a bit stronger resistance is found at 5.75 and then strong at 6.19. If 6.19 is broken, the stock would likely target the 200-week MA, currently at 8.10. Decent and pivotal support is found at 4.23. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls, especially since oil seems to be heading higher as well. TWNK on Monday generated a new 8-week intraweek high and a new 9-week weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 14.29 will be seen this week. The stock also closed above the 200-day MA, currently at 13.65, for 4 days in a row, suggesting that the break of the line is now eventful and convincing. Minor resistance is found between 14.50 and 14.58 and then nothing until decent between 14.88 and 14.98. Nonetheless, with this break of the MA being the 5th this year, the bulls are committed to making a statement of at least mid-term bullishness, meaning that a break above the resistance at 14.98 is the goal. There is a 2-point trendline at 14.40 that will be closely watched by trend followers. If that level holds up in spite of there being no intraweek resistance at that level, it may be indicative given that it would become a 3-point trendline if the bulls are unable to take the stock higher. Intraweek support is pivotal at 13.24 but any daily close below 13.84 would weaken the rally. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .12 (new price 1.45). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.25. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.48 (new price (44.79). 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.01. Stock closed on Friday at 8.43. 5) FB - Covered shorts at 200.76. Shorted at 200.27. Loss on the trade of $249 per 100 shares plus commissions. 6) TWNK - Averaged long at 13.50 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 12.85. Stock closed on Friday at 14.11. 7) UGAZ - Purchased at 60.40. Liquidated at 59.65. Loss on the trade of $75 per 100 shares plus commissions. 9) FSLR - Purchased at 61.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 54.53. 10) AAPL - Shorted at 186.01. Covered shorts at 187.80. Loss on the trade of $179 per 100 shares plus commissions. 11) SN - Purchased at 4.04. Stop loss now at 4.12. Stock closed on Friday at 4.67. 12) NE - Purchased at 6.05. Averaged long at 5.905 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 6.09. 13) ARNA - Purchased at 41.93. Stop loss at 41.20. Stock closed on Friday at 44.79.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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