Issue #574
Jul 1, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Indexes Generate Failure Signals. Bears are in Short Term Control!

DOW Friday closing price - 24271
SPX Friday closing price - 2718
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7510

The indexes generated an indicative down week in which sell signals as well as failure signals occurred. The DOW fell 1.3%, produced a new sell signal (having closed below the previous low daily close at 24361) and generated a confirmed close below the 200-day MA, currently at 24323, for the first time in 27 months. The SPX fell 1.4% and gave a failure signal, having closed below the previous daily closing high at 2733 and the NASDAQ fell 2.4%, generated a confirmed failure signal on the daily chart (having closed below the previous all-time high daily close at 5788 for 5 days in a row) and a failure signal on the weekly closing chart (having closed on Friday below the previous all-time high weekly close at 5760).

All indexes closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low will be seen this week (DOW below 23997, SPX below 2691 and NASDAQ below 7419.

This past week was the first time since March that clearly defined negative signals were given to all indexes, suggesting that the traders are now convinced that more downside is to come unless there is a fundamental positive that occurs, such as the Trade War ending or the next earnings quarter showing continued strong growth. With the earnings quarter not starting until July 13th, it does suggest that at least the next 2 weeks the bears will be in control.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor but pivotal resistance at last week's high at 24569. The SPX shows minor but pivotal resistance at last week's high at 2746. The NASDAQ shows minor resistance at 7610 and minor to decent at 7637. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 7697 and then major at 7810.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 23997, minor again at 23823, decent between 23509 and 25331 and midterm pivotal at 23334. The SPX on an intraweek basis shows minor support at 2691, minor to perhaps decent at 2676 and then minor again at 2647. Below that, there is minor to decent at 2594 and at 2553. Midterm pivotal support is found at 2533. The NASDAQ on an intraweek basis, shows minor support at 7419, minor again at 7354 and minor to perhaps decent between 7311 and 7320. Below that level, there is decent support at 7084 that is strengthened by the 200-week MA, currently at 7081.

All indexes are showing a recent gap down that in the case of the SPX (between 2746 and 2752) and NASDAQ (between 7639 and 7679) were tested successfully this past week. The gaps (and the successful retest) mean that the bears are in control at this time and that the outlook for the short-term is bearish. Ultimately, the gaps will become magnets but not likely until the earnings quarter begins. By the same token, another gap down would generate a breakaway/runaway gap formation and if that occurs, the bulls will have problems recovering even if the earnings quarter begins.

Short-term downside objectives are clearly defined for this week, starting with the NASDAQ where the 100-day MA at 7316 beckons strongly. Over the past 2 years, since July 2016, the index has shown an affinity/magnet to both the 100 and 200 day MA's, with the 100-day holding up twice and the 200-day holding up 3 times. As such, the 100-day MA is a clear magnet for the index at this time and likely to be reached either this week or the next. In the SPX, the 200-day MA, currently at 2669, will draw the index down, likely to be reached either this week or at the latest the next. The DOW broke the 200-day MA this past week and as such there is no MA to draw the index down. As such, the draw will be the lows made in February, April and May between 23334 and 23531. That entire area is a huge magnet that is highly likely to be seen either this week or the next.

This coming week there are important economic reports in the form of the ISM Index on Monday and the Jobs report on Friday. Nonetheless, none of these reports have been catalytic as of late and it is not expected they will be catalytic this week. Attention is presently keyed on the Trade War and it is not likely that the economic reports will be so out of line as to cause traders to turn their attention elsewhere.

The longer term outlook for the index market is not yet clear as much will depend on the earnings that start July 13th and the continuing Trade War fight. As such, the traders will likely be keying only on the short term picture and the immediate objectives. The key at this time may be the DOW and the 200-day MA at 24323, given the importance of that long-term line. As long as the index remains below the line on a daily closing basis, the bears will be in full control. There are no

Probabilities favor the bears this week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no mentions for this week. I do expect further downside in the index market, meaning that short positions are the preferred option, but after looking at over 120 stocks I could not find any that offered a good enough risk/reward ratio for a short trade. The reason is that even though further downside will probably, further downside is likely to be limited and only seen until the earnings quarter begins.

On the other side of the coin, regarding small cap stocks that could be considered a purchase, it is not likely those will generate any kind of a meaningful rally at this time (next 2 weeks).

Nonetheless, there are 2 stocks (TOL and EDC) that are close to levels where a purchase can be considered but even they have to do some backing and filling and even perhaps a slight further downside before they can be considered a viable purchase.

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2018, as of 6/1

Profit of $1008 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for June per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

TOL (long) $21
UGAZ (long) $604
UGAZ (long) $936

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

AXP (short) $475
CCJ (long) $315
RENN (long) $3277

Total Profit for June, per 100 shares and after commissions $5628

Closed out losing trades for June per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

FSLR (long) $223
FSLR (long) $143
FSLR (long) $10
NE (long) $47
ARNA (long) $88

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

FCEL (long) $51
MSFT (short) $5
FSLR (long) $278

Total Loss for June, per 100 shares, including commissions $845

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 7/1

ARNA (long) $167
TWNK (long) $20
NE (long) $54
SN (long) $48
FB (short) $595

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

ENG(long) $115

Total $998

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 7/1

FSLR (long) $837
CLF (long) $7

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

ARNA (long) $84
CLF (long) $15
FCEL (long) $14

Total $957

Status of trades for month of June per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

Profit of $4824

Status of account/portfolio for 2018, as of 6/30

Profit of $5832 using 100 shares traded per mention.



Updates on Held Stocks

ARNA generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week low and then closing in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 45.20 than below last week's low at 41.50. Nonetheless, the close was only $.12 cents above last week's close and only 25 points above the midpoint of the week's trading range, meaning it was not a convincing weekly close and that there are still unanswered questions and doubts as to whether the stock has found its correction low. One possibility is that the stock may trade sideways for the next week or two between the 100-day MA, currently at 41.83, and the intraweek resistance at 45.85. A rally above 45.85 will likely bring new buying interest and a drop below 41.30 would likely bring about a drop down to the $40 level. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls this week.

CLF failed to confirm the previous week's breakout, having given a failure signal by closing below the previous weekly closing high at 8.68 from where the breakout occurred. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 8.13 than above last week's high at 8.92. Nonetheless, and on a possible positive note, the stock now shows a double low at 8.11/8.13 that has been confirmed, given that the second low was made on Thursday and the stock went above Thursday's high on Friday. As such, a move below last week's low would be considered a negative sign. The stock is still showing a bullish flag formation on the daily chart that if broken to the upside (above 9.14) would offer a 10.13 objective. Given the action seen since March, the probabilities favor the bulls. Nonetheless, given the action seen last week, the door is open for the bears to make a statement. Key this week will be the bulls keeping the stock above the 8.21 level. If they can do that, the chances of the bears making a statement will drop precipitously.

ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low and then going above the previous week's high and closing in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range. The week's low at 1.10 was a successful retest of that minor to decent intraweek support level, suggesting that once again the bulls are set to attempt a breakout above the decent weekly close resistance level at 1.40. The stock is now showing 2 successful retests of the gap between .95 and 1.02 that occurred after the last earnings report, suggesting that sometime over the next week or two a runaway gap could occur, likely above the 1.40 level. Support is now short-term pivotal at 1.10. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FB failed to follow through off of the previous week's new all-time high and close near the highs of the week, having generated a lower high and lower low than the previous week, as well as a red weekly close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 193.11 will be seen this week. The previous all-time high weekly close is at 190.28 and that is the objective for this week (on a weekly closing basis). By the same token, with the NAZ generating a failure signal having closed below the previous high weekly close last week, the probabilities of the stock doing the same are high. Minor but short-term pivotal support is found at last week's low at 193.11. Below that level, there is no intraweek support until 186.43 is reached. Probabilities are high that the traders will target that level (or perhaps a little higher at 187.00) this coming week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is now found at 200.75, meaning that the stop loss can now be lowered to 200.85. Probabilities strongly favor the bears this week.

FCEL continued the recent downtrend, having made a new 11-month weekly closing low. By the same token, the bulls were able to stay above the previous week's low at 1.29, having made a low last week at 1.30, suggesting the selling interest is beginning to wane. By the same token, the stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below 1.30 is expected to be seen this week. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek support is found between 1.22 and 1.25 that is likely to be reached but not likely to be broken at this time. Resistance will be found between 1.40 and 1.44 that is also unlikely to be broken anytime soon. Probabilities favor the stock now trading between 1.22 and 1.44 for the next few weeks.

FSLR bears have not been able to generate any further downside for the past 2 weeks, given that the low at 50.23 that was made 3 weeks ago has held up with lows at 50.55 and 50.57 seen the last 2 weeks. As such, the stock remains in a very minor recovery period, having made a new 2 week high at 55.70 this past week but then only closing $.01 cent above the previous week's close, meaning that the recovery continues but barely. The stock now shows a successful retest of the 50.23 low with a drop down to 50.57 on Thursday and a rally and green close on Friday above Thursday's high, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside with 54.50 as the immediate objective. Nonetheless, at this time the probabilities continue to favor the bears and a break of the 50.27 with a likely drop down to the 48.50 level. A rally up to 57.62, which would close the runaway gap, would shift the short-term edge back to the bulls. Nonetheless, until that happens (unlikely at this time), the bears remains in overall control.

NE made a new 15-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.51 will be seen this week. The stock has been going up due to oil going up and with no resistance in oil for another $5, the stock is also likely to go further to the upside. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance is found at 6.70 and then nothing until 7.76. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis there is decent resistance between 7.30 and 7.60. It is possible, should oil continue above the $78 level, that the traders will target the 200-week MA, currently at 9.45. There is no support close by on an intraweek basis but on a daily closing basis, the breakout level at 6.01 should not be broken anytime soon. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SN made a new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing high on Friday and closed on the highs of the day, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 4.75 will be seen this week. In addition, the 200-day was broken on Wednesday, successfully retested on Thursday and the upside resumed on Friday, meaning that the chart is now fulfilled to the downside. The stock is also benefitting from the rise in oil, meaning further upside on a fundamental basis is expected to be seen. There is no resistance of consequence above until 5.25 is reached. Further and a bit stronger resistance is found at 5.75 and then strong at 6.19. If 6.19 is broken, the stock would likely target the 200-week MA, currently at 8.10. Support is now found at Thursday's low at 4.28. Any daily close below 4.21 would generate a failure signal. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.

TWNK on Monday generated a new 7-week intraweek high and close above the 200-day MA, currently at 13.65, but 2 days later the breakout was negated and a drop below the previous week's low occurred. The reversal action was likely due to the negative action seen in the index market. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to generate a green weekly close on Friday, suggesting that the failure action seen may not generate any follow through of consequence to the downside. The stock closed slightly in the lower part of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of the stock going below last week's low at 13.24 than above last week's high at 14.16. Nonetheless, if the 12.95 support level does not get broken, it is likely that the stock will continue trading in the manner seen the past few weeks, which is mostly sideways. A trading range between 13.31 and 13.99 is likely to be seen until the indexes end their present correction or the stock reports earnings on August 7th. Probabilities favor sideways trading.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .11 (new price 1.32).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.29.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.36 (new price (43.60).

4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.01. Stock closed on Friday at 8.43.

5) FB - Shorted at 200.27. Stop loss now at 200.85. Stock closed on Friday at 194.32.

6) TWNK - Purchased at 13.70. Averaged long at 13.50 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 12.85. Stock closed on Friday at 13.60.

7) UGAZ - Purchased at 63.58. Liquidated at 69.60. Profit on the trade of $602 per 100 shares minus commissions.

9) FSLR - Purchased at 61.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 52.66.

10) MSFT - Covered shorts at 98.75. Shorted at 96.43. Loss on the trade of $232 per 100 shares plus commissions.

12) AXP - Liquidated at 95.82. Averaged short at 101.305. Profit on the trade of $1106 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

13) SN - Purchased at 4.04. Stop loss at 3.66. Stock closed on Friday at 4.52.

14) NE - Purchased at 5.76. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.33.

15) ARNA - Purchased at 41.93. Stop loss at 41.20. Stock closed on Friday at 43.60.

16) ARNA - Purchased at 43.87. Liquidated at 43.13. Loss on the trade of $74 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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