Issue #573
Jun 24, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Tariff War Stopping Rally.

DOW Friday closing price - 24580
SPX Friday closing price - 2754
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7692

The indexes generated a red week across the board, meaning that the mixed results seen the past few weeks might have morphed into a short term direction. The DOW fell 2.1%, the SPX fell 1% and the NASDAQ fell .7%. The dichotomy between the indexes continued to be seen with the NAZ still showing the most buying interest but the market uptrend might have stalled as even the red-hot RUT was only able to scratch out a .1% gain.

The Tariff War continued to bring in selling interest as it grew with more and more Tariffs being imposed. Today (Saturday), the Europeans imposed tariffs on bourbon, jeans and motorcycles and Trump turned around and threatened to impose a 20% tariff on European cars. This news is likely to add to the selling interest seen on Friday.

The DOW did generate a new sell signal on the weekly chart, having closed on Friday below the previous low weekly close at 24635. The SPX closed in the red on Friday (the first red weekly close in the past 5 weeks) and that means that the 2 previous week's closes at 2779 have now become a successful retest of the high weekly close seen in March at 2786. The NASDAQ, which had also made 4 green weekly closes in a row as well as 2 new all-time high weekly closes in a row, generated a negative reversal, having made a new all-time intraweek high and then a drop below the previous week's low as well as a red weekly close. Right across the board the action last week was negative and suggests a deep concern among traders for the Tariff War that has begun. All indexes closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week.

This coming week does include several economic reports that could generate a small reaction, in the form of Housing information (20-city Case/Schiller report) and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Durable Goods on Wednesday and the 3rd estimate of GDP on Thursday. The Consumer Confidence number might be the most important this time around given that it was at a 17-year high last month but the Tariff War had not yet begun. It is possible that the number will fall if Consumer Confidence has begun to wane because of the Tariff War and if that occurs, it could be seen as a negative omen. It is anticipated to come out at 127.1. A number below April's number at 125.6 would likely be seen as a negative.

The SPX and the NASDAQ have not yet given any negative signs other than possibly the failure of the SPX to break the March resistance level. Nonetheless, the NAZ is only 1.8% away from giving a failure signal and the SPX is only 1.6% away from giving a sell signal and those levels are certainly within reach this week, especially given that the DOW did generate a sell signal on Friday and is 1.6% away from the immediate downside weekly close support objective at 24190.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 24861 and then decent at the 25,000 demilitarized zone. The SPX shows minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance at 2774 and then decent as well as pivotal between 2794 and 2801. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 7668 and decent as well as longer term pivotal at 7806.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 24406 and then minor to perhaps decent but likely pivotal at 24247. Below that level, there is no support until 23823 is reached. On a weekly closing basis though, there is decent support at 24190. The SPX shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 2743. Below that level, there is minor support at 2701 and then decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 2676. On a weekly closing basis though, there is short-term pivotal support at 2691 that if broken would suggest a fall down to 2619. The NASDAQ shows minor support at 7635 and minor again but likely pivotal at 7595. Below that, there is no support until the 7400 level is reached. On a weekly closing basis though, important support is found at the previous all-time weekly closing high at 7560. A close below that level would generate a failure signal that at this time would likely bring a strong profit taking binge.

The market is presently under a Tariff War fear attack and that is not likely to go away anytime soon, given that Trump and several of his cabinet members are dead set on "making Trade fair again" and are not likely to back off unless some painful repercussions start to occur, none of which is likely to happen over the short term. As such, the bulls are likely looking to play a defensive battle for the next 3 weeks until the next earnings quarter begins.

The next 3 weeks is not likely to be about direction but about how little or how much the market falls. As it is, it is expected and "normal" for the NASDAQ to retest the previous all-time high at 7560, meaning that a drop of 1.8% in value is likely already "in the cards". With the index having moved up 200 points over the last 3 weeks, it would not be a big negative if it dropped the same over the next 3 weeks. The RUT is already trading 6% above the previous all-time high and highly unlikely to drop the same amount over the next 3 weeks, meaning that the bull trend is probably going to remain in place until the earnings quarter begins on July 13th.

It is doubtful that anything longer term indicative will happen at this time but if the important levels of support or resistance mentioned above get broken, the outlook will change. Such change is not likely to occur unless some "new" fundamental factor comes into play, such as a loss of consumer confidence, a spike up of consequence in the Trade War or some other piece of news that might affect the overall economy.

Probabilities this week favor the bears and further downside but likely on a limited basis.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no "new" mentions for this week but I am looking to add to existing positions or repurchase positions that were liquidated last week, if and when the held or repurchaseable stocks either generate a breakout or drop down to desired entry points.

CLF Friday Closing Price - 9.00

I am looking to be a buyer of additional shares on any dip back down to the 9.00 level if the stock breaks above 9.15. Stop loss would be on a daily closing basis at 8.80. Nonetheless, CLF closed at 9.00 on Friday and a purchase can be considered at this time using a stop loss at 8.23. Upside objective is at least the 10.90 level with an outside shot at 11.70.

NE Friday Closing Price - 5.72

I am looking to add positions in NE on any dip back down near the 5.30 level with a stop loss at 4.97. If stopped out, I would then again be an aggressive buyer around the 4.70 level with a stop loss at 4.24. Upside objective can be as high as 8.40 with a slight possibility of getting up as high as 9.60, which is where the 200-week MA is currently at.

RENN Friday Closing Price - 2.36

I am looking to repurchase RENN somewhere between 1.25 and 1.60, using a 1.00 stop loss and having an objective of 3.26.

TOL Friday Closing Price - 37.11

TOL was given as a mention on the message board this week. Nonetheless, the stock did not get down to the desired entry point between 36.00 and 36.55. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 36.80 is expected to be seen this week, meaning a high probability of the desired entry point being reached. Stop loss would be at 34.93 and objective would be the $40 level.

UGAZ Friday Closing Price - 66.17

I am looking to repurchase UGAZ below 64.16 with a stop loss at 62.50 and a 70.00 objective.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA generated a key negative reversal week, having made a new 39-month high and then closing below the previous week's low. The negative reversal came on the heels of the company announcing the re-opening of availability of 6 million shares, which in effect would dilute the present shares in the company. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 43.29 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless and on a positive note, the bears were unable to generate a sell signal on the weekly closing chart as no previous weekly closing low was broken and no failure signal was given as the previous weekly closing high at 43.37, from which the most recent rally up to 50.05 occurred, was not broken either (stock closed on Friday at 43.48), suggesting that even though the stock fell 14% in value that the uptrend might remain intact. Decent intraweek support is found at 43.06 and then minor to perhaps decent between 41.30 and 41.50. Below that level, there is support at 40.50, at 39.00 and decent again at 38.50. The intraweek key this week is 43.06. If that level is broken (likely) it will probably mean that the uptrend will be on pause and that sideways trading between $39 and $49 will occur for the next month or two. If 43.06 is not broken, the probabilities will strongly increase that the stock will recover and make a new high above 50.05 within a couple of weeks. Next Friday's close is as important or more than the intraweek action, given that a green weekly close above 43.48 would suggest a successful retest of the breakout level and give the bulls new and stronger chart ammunition to take the stock above the recent high weekly close at 49.47 and up to the next level of weekly close resistance at 54.30. As such, the stock action this week will revolve around intraweek support between 38.50 and 41.50 and on a weekly close next Friday above 43.48 or below 43.37. Possibly pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 45.85 that if broken would suggest the weakness is over. Probabilities favor the stock getting into a trading range between $39 and $49 for the next month or two.

AXP generated a sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the previous 10-week low weekly close at 98.25 Nonetheless, the intraweek low for that same period of time at 95.51 was not broken and the bulls managed to generate a close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that a bit of a bounce could be seen this week, with the likely intention of retesting the break of weekly close support at 98.25. It also needs to be mentioned that on the daily chart, the stock fell to the 200-day MA, currently at 95.99, suggesting the bounce seen is likely to be more technical and chart oriented than anything else. The stock did close on the lows of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside, below Friday's low at 97.07 will be seen on Monday. Support is found at 96.98 and intraday support is found at 96.42. If those levels are seen but not broken, consideration should be given to taking profits as the stock will likely then generate a rally up to 99.70 to close the gap up at 99.51. Overall, the chart looks toppy with the bears likely with the edge, meaning that the midterm outlook is bearish but this is a pivotal area of support that if not broken could mean that more than a bounce to 99.70 will be seen. By the same token, if 95.51 is broken, the bears will be in total control. Probabilities are even for this week.

CLF generated a breakout on the daily and weekly closing chart, having closed above the 15-month high daily close at 8.74 and above the high weekly close at 8.68. By the same token, the breakout is not yet confirmed given that the same intraweek high at 9.15 was not broken (high last week was 9.14). The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside will be seen this week above last week's high, which in turn would confirm the breakout across the board. Above 9.15 there is no intraweek resistance until 9.99 is reached and then a bit stronger at 10.90. It is likely that the stock is now at least on a mid-term uptrend with a high probability of reaching the $10 demilitarized zone and with a good possibility of reaching 10.90 on an intraweek basis and a small but still possible chance of reaching 11.70. Intraweek support is now found at 8.28. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week.

ENG confirmed the successful retest of the 200-week MA that occurred 2 weeks ago, having generated a second red weekly close in a row. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.14 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found between 1.06 and 1.10 and again at 1.00. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 1.11/1.12, meaning that the stock is not likely to go down more than 2-4 points at next week's close. This pull back is likely to be the traders looking to determine where the new support base from which to launch the next rally to break the resistance at 1.40. Probabilities favor the bears this week but longer term the bulls still have the edge.

FCEL lost its main partner in Korea this past week and the stock broke the uptrend that had begun 13 months ago and in the process gave a sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the previous low weekly close at 1.65 as well as below the low weekly close for the past 9 months at 1.58. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week low at 1.29 will be seen this week. Support is found at the 1.25 that has a decent chance to hold, which in turn would suggest the stock may get into a sideways trading range between 1.25 and 1.65 for the next few week or perhaps even months. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

FSLR generated a green weekly close which makes the previous week's close at 51.06 into a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 51.28. The green weekly close does suggest that most (if not all) of the selling pressure due to the negative news from China is now factored into the price of the stock. The stock did close very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 50.55 than above last week's high at 54.88. Further downside below the recent low at 50.23 is possible and perhaps even likely but buying interest should be found on any intraweek drops down to or below the $50 level. Simply stated, the probabilities favor that on a weekly closing basis, the drop down to $51 does signal a bottom to this recent downtrend. Support will be found at the $50 demilitarized zone and a bit stronger at 48.58. Nonetheless, there is an open gap at 48.06 that the bears may try to close. I do not believe that gap will be closed, meaning that the stock may still have a slight bullish bias for the long term. Intraweek resistance will be found at last week's high at 54.88 and then nothing until the runaway gap between 56.88 and 57.61. There are 2 possible chart scenarios with 1) being a 3-6 week trading range between 48.50 and 56.88 and 2) being a 2-4 month trading range between $50 and $63. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but mostly on an intraweek basis.

MSFT generated an outside week with higher highs and lower lows than the previous week. By the same token, the stock generated a green close but near the lows of the week, suggesting a that the traders are still waiting to see what happens with the index market this week but that further downside, at least on an intraweek basis, will be seen this week, below last week's low at 99.42. The stock did close near the highs of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action on Monday will be to the upside to close the gap that was generated on Friday between 100.88 and 100.77. Intraweek resistance will be found at 102.03, meaning that if the stock mimics last week's trading range, that a trading range between 102.03 and 98.91 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 99.42 and then nothing until the 96.70 area is reached. Probabilities favor that area being reached within 2 weeks but what the stock does thereafter will depend on the index market. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

NE generated a green weekly close, making the previous week's close at 5.18 into a successful retest of the 100-week MA, currently at 5.07, which is a line that got broken to the upside 6 weeks ago for the first time in almost 5 years. The stock closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.83 will be seen this week. The main reason for the rally was the oil market that broke the recent downtrend when the OPEC nations decided on a production increase that was lower than anticipated. Pivotal resistance is found at 6.10 that if broken would suggest the uptrend has resumed with the next resistance level being at 6.70. Minor intraweek support is found at 5.29 and pivotal at 5.07. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SN gave a strong positive signal this past week, having made a new 4-month weekly closing high on Friday that was also a failure signal against the bears when the stock closed convincingly above the previous high weekly close at 4.11 as well as above an important low weekly close at 4.02. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 4.36 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, the stock still shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at the double high at 4.47 but if that level is broken (likely), there is no resistance above until minor at 5.25. The big key this week is the 200-day MA, currently at 4.25. That line, which was broken to the downside on April 13th of last year, has only been broken to the upside once and only for 1 day in January of this week. A confirmed break of the line would likely generate a strong short-covering rally as well as a signal that the downtrend is over. If that occurs, a rally up to the 200-week MA, currently at 8.25, would be the midterm objective. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 3.76 that if broken would do damage to the chart. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week.

TWNK has been idling for the past 2 weeks, having generated an inside week each week. Nonetheless, the bulls have maintained their short term edge, having generated a green weekly close each week. The 200-day MA, currently at 13.64, remains the stumbling block for the bulls but having that line broken to the upside 4 times over the past 7 months, it does suggest that the next break of the line will be the "charm". The stock is clearly leaning to the upside and given the failure of the bears to push the stock down over the last 2 weeks, the probabilities favor a breakout this week. There is pivotal resistance at the double high at 14.04 but a break of that resistance would likely be decisive in favor of a bull run occurring. Short term but likely pivotal support is now found at 13.28. A break of the recent low at 12.95 would do chart damage. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .12 (new price 1.45).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.14.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.35 (new price (43.48).

4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.01. Stock closed on Friday at 9.00.

5) RENN - Liquidated at 25.40. Averaged long at 9.795. Profit on the trade of $3121 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

6) TWNK - Purchased at 13.30. Stop loss at 12.85. Stock closed on Friday at 13.50.

7) UGAZ - Liquidated at 67.18. Averaged long at 62.40. Profit on the trade of $956 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

9) FSLR - Purchased at 61.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 52.65.

10) MSFT - Shorted at 96.43. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 100.41.

12) FCEL - Liquidated at 1.50. Purchased at 1.60. Loss on the trade of $10 per 100 shares plus commissions.

13) AXP - Averaged short at 101.305 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 103.35. Stock closed on Friday at 97.23.

14) SN - Purchased at 4.04. Stop loss at 3.66. Stock closed on Friday at 4.17.

15) NE - Purchased at 5.76. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.72.

16) TWNK - Purchased at 13.30. Stop loss at 12.85. Stock closed on Friday at 13.50.

17) ARNA - Purchased at 43.87. Stop loss at 42.96. Stock closed on Friday at 43.48.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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