Issue #572
Jun 17, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls Back in Control? Answer is Unclear, Depending on Who you Ask!

DOW Friday closing price - 25090
SPX Friday closing price - 2779
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7746

Once again the past week ended with mixed results given that the DOW fell 1%, the SPX closed unchanged, and the NASDAQ rallied 1.3%. The Tech industry continues to receive the bulk of the buying given that there is much uncertainty regarding the future of the economy due to the Tariff War that has started but companies with world-wide clientele and established growing patterns continue to succeed. Nonetheless, the overall trend of the market remains upward and money is continuing to flow toward those companies that persist in showing better than expected earnings and guidance, as well as resiliency against bad news.

There was negative news this past week in the form of new Tariffs being imposed on China as well as the Fed raising interest rates for June (as expected) but announcing that for 2019 rates would likely be raised 4 times instead of the previously anticipated 3 hikes. Nonetheless, traders continue unsure of what will actually happen due to the ever-changing mind of Trump and therefore buying interest continued in the NASDAQ and the RUT (likely due to being into new all-time highs and not showing any resistance levels above) but selling interest (or lack of buying interest) being seen in the DOW and the SPX (likely due to resistance levels above remaining intact). This scenario is not likely to change until the Tariff War gets clarified.

The SPX remains the key index due to the clearly defined intraweek resistance level at 2801 (2786 on a weekly closing basis). That was the bounce high seen in March after the correction down to 2532 that occurred in February. Even though both the NASDAQ and the RUT have both broken those same bounce highs and then continued to make new all-time highs, the DOW and the SPX have not, meaning that until those resistance levels get broken the bulls will not be in control of the overall market and therefore still open for a new correction or even a top having been found. Every day that the dichotomy between the indexes continues, it favors the bears given that the NASDAQ is already 2.5% above its previous high and therefore likely ready for a correction to occur.

There are no economic reports of consequence scheduled for this coming week, meaning that the market will likely continue to key on the Tariff War that seems to be escalating day by day.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the SPX shows decent resistance at 2801. Above that level, there is minor but likely indicative resistance at 2839 (due to the breakaway gap between 2839 and 2851) and then major at the all-time high at 2872. The NASDAQ and the RUT show no resistance above.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the SPX shows minor but likely short-term indicative support at 2701 and then decent as well as trend changing support at 2676. On an intraday basis, the index shows short-term pivotal support at 2760. On a daily and weekly closing basis, support is found between 2727 and 2733 as a close below those levels will generate a failure signal. The NASDAQ shows minor intraweek and short-term pivotal support at 7595. Below that level, there is no intraweek support of any consequence until 7320 is reached but on a daily and weekly closing basis, the 7588 and 7560 levels respectively would give a failure signal if the index closes below them.

Most of the economic reports this past week leant toward the bear side other than the Retail Sales report that came out much better than expected (.8% vs .4%). Nonetheless, none of the reports generated any movement of consequence. This coming week there are no economic reports that could be seen as catalytic, meaning that the traders will be keying on the Trade War that has now started with China.

One additional factor that the traders will be working with this week is that the summer months have started and trading interest wanes quite a bit during June and July. This does suggest that without tangible news the action will be very limited, such as it was with the SPX that had the smallest trading range last week (30 points) seen since the last week of December when the holiday brought about a trading range of only 19 points.

With the exception of the DOW, all indexes closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week. The Tariff War news on Friday was somewhat shrugged off on Friday as the indexes mostly rallied from their morning lows. As such, it is possible and perhaps even likely that Monday will be indicative of what to expect the rest of the week. If the Tariff War that caused the sell off on Friday is ignored on Monday and no new news in that respect has come out, the bulls will once again try to break the resistance level above in the SPX and generate new chart buying. By the same token, if they fail on Monday, the opposite will likely be seen the rest of the week.

There is no clear probability assessment for this week. It could go either way.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no new mentions this week as the chart signals on the indexes are mixed.

Nonetheless, 2 of the held stocks (FSLR and NE) will be considered buys this week if they reach desired entry points (FSLR between 48.00-48.50 and NE between 4.45 and 4.65). I did not give them as official mentions as the probability of reaching the desired entry points is low.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA extended its recent rally, having made another new 39-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closing near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 49.85 will be seen this week. The stock has now closed 3 weeks in a row above the decent weekly close resistance at 48.10, meaning that the bulls have now been able to negate past history of resistance in this area and that further upside is now likely to be seen immediately. On an intraweek basis, there is a double high resistance of some consequence from March/July 2015 at 51.20 that will offer automatic selling interest on approach but given the inability of the bears to stop the rally at other previous high resistance levels from that time period, as well as the slow but consistent rally being seen. The probability of that level of resistance getting broken is now high. By the same token and even though above 51.20 there is very little intraweek resistance until the $56/$57 level is reached and even then the recent high of the past 4 years above 51.20 is not found until 62.80 is reached, on a weekly closing basis there is decent and "copious" resistance between 50.90 and 53.00 that goes back to 2009. As such, any break above 51.20 that generates an intraweek rally up to the $57-$60 level is likely to end up with a weekly close below 53.00 for at least until new fundamental information comes out. Probabilities favor the bulls this week for at least another $1 rally.

AXP generated a red week and a close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 97.31 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to evade a bullet as the stock rallied sufficiently from the lows on Friday to prevent a new sell signal from being given on the closing charts, having closed above the low daily close for the past 6 weeks at 97.72 and above the low weekly close for the past 8 weeks at 98.25. The traders likely have as a possible objective of this recent mini correction, a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 95.71. Nonetheless, having gapped down on Friday but then closing in the upper half of the day's trading range, it does suggest that the first course of action for the week will be to the upside and a close of the gap between 99.27 and 99.51. Minor but tangible intraweek resistance is found at the $100 demilitarized zone, meaning that it is possible and perhaps even likely that a trading range between 100.30 and 95.71 could be seen this week. This would compare with last week's $4.36 trading range between 101.67 and 97.31. Pivotal support is found at 95.51 that if broken would likely bring about an additional $3 drop in price. Pivotal resistance is now found at 102.39. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

CLF continues to trade sideways, having generated an inside week last week as well as a close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting the traders are waiting for some type of catalyst to decide on a direction from here. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 9.08 and pivotal support at 8.11. The stock continues to be in an overall positive though slow upward trend, suggesting a higher probability of a breakout than a breakdown. Nonetheless, there was no sign last week that either is imminent. Probabilities favor more of the same.

ENG bulls were unable to break the 200-week MA, currently at 1.39, having generated an inside week (no follow through to the previous week's close on the highs of the week) and a red close, making the previous week's close at 1.39 not only a successful retest of the MA line but also of the 9-month high weekly close at 1.39 that was seen in September. The stock did close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at will be seen. Based on the failure of the bulls to break resistance, further backing and filling and base building is expected to be seen. Intraweek support is found at 1.20, a bit stronger between 1.06 and 1.11 and decent as well as longer term pivotal at .97. Probabilities favor a drop down to at least 1.20 and possibly down to 1.11 but likely no more than that. Chart does suggest that some new support building will happen but that ultimately the end result will be a breakout. A rally above 1.47 would be a clear sign of that.

FCEL bears generated further downside gains this past week, having made a new 15-week low at 1.62. In addition, the 2-point uptrend line that started in May 2017, currently at 1.75, was also broken, opening the door for the uptrend to end and a sideways trend to begin. By the same token, the bulls were able to close the stock above the previous weekly closing low at 1.65 (closed on Friday at 1.68), meaning that no new sell signal or break of uptrend was given on the weekly closing chart, meaning that if a green close occurs next Friday that the uptrend might be recaptured. Nonetheless, the action seen this past week does mean that the bulls are on "the clock" and that something positive must be done this week or the changes seen will become longer lasting. The level that has now become absolute pivotal support is 1.45. Any break of that level will cause strong damage to the bull side. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

FSLR continued the downtrend, having made a new 8-month low this past week. The stock once again closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 50.23 is expected to be seen this week. The stock did get into the gap area between 48.08 and 51.71, which was a gap that was created off of a much better than expected earnings report and a comment about the company being the best in the industry, suggesting that the gap is likely to be closed before any recovery rally begins. Nonetheless, with the company remaining the best in the industry and having already dropped 39% from its recent high off of the negative news from China on the industry, it does suggest that most of the downside might have been seen and that only the chart gap magnet remains as a draw for further downside. Decent weekly close support is found at 48.67 and general but also decent psychological support is found at $50, meaning that consideration can start to be given to purchasing shares this coming week below $50. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 54.50. Upside objective of a recovery rally is the $63 level. Probabilities favor the bears this week but a recovery rally is likely to start soon.

MSFT made a new 10-day low and a short-term sell signal on the daily chart was given. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 100.07 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock remains firmly entrenched in an uptrend and no failure signal has been given yet, suggesting that further weakness this week might only be temporary. By the same token, there is no nearby support on the chart until minor support is reached at 97.23. Further support is found at 96.32 and stronger at 95.83, which is also further strengthened on a daily closing basis at 96.77, which is the previous all-time high daily close. Nonetheless and unless the index market rallies, drops down to the $96-$97 level now seem likely to occur. Pivotal resistance is now found at 102.03. Probabilities favor the bears.

NE generated a short-term sell signal, having closed below the most recent low daily close at 5.42. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 5.08 is expected to be seen this week. The break occurred because of the weakness seen in the oil market. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek support is found at 4.88 and then decent as well as likely pivotal at 4.45, which is also a level that is strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 4.45. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 4.67. Minor to decent resistance is now found at 5.80. Oil is presently under sell pressure and likely to continue lower, meaning the stock is likely to do the same. Probabilities favor the bears this week for a drop down to at least 4.88 if not all the way down to 4.45. Nonetheless, longer tem chart outlook still favors the bulls.

RENN made a new 7-week high this past week and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.18 will be seen this week. The stock broke above the 200-day MA, currently at 9.56, on Thursday and confirmed the break to the upside with another green close on Friday, suggesting this breakout has some legs to it. By the same token, resistance of consequence is found between 10.37 and 10.44 that needs to be broken for the bulls to make a complete statement. The reason for the rally is that the cash dividend that was announced on April 30th and that was seen as a negative was clarified on Thursday and seemingly was not as bearish as initially thought, meaning that this rally could be real. Support is now found at 9.67 and down to the 200-day MA. If those supports are broken, selling interest might return. For now, probabilities favor the bulls.

TWNK generated an inside week but a green weekly close, suggesting the previous week's weakness was temporary. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 13.63 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a mini spike low on Thursday and a rally above Thursday's high on Friday, meaning that the previous week's low at 12.95 was tested successfully with Thursday's low at 13.15. Pivotal resistance is found at last week's high at 13.63 given that the 200-day MA is currently at 13.64. a break and close above that level will be a positive sign. Further and more pivotal resistance is found at the double high at 14.04. Chart does suggest that the stock is now ready to make some bullish moves over the next few weeks.

UGAZ made a new 4-month high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 71.80 will be seen this week. There is absolutely no intraweek resistance above until decent at 81.44. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis there is decent resistance at the 200-week MA, currently at 77.64. This new breakout (the 2nd in the last 4 months), as well as the repeated successful retests of breakout support over the past 5 weeks, does confirm the short-term bullish outlook. Any daily close now below 68.37 would be seen as a negative. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .14 (new price 1.68).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.24.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.95 (new price (49.47).

4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.30. Stock closed on Friday at 8.66.

5) RENN - Averaged long at 9.795 (2 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 10.00.

6) TWNK - Purchased at 13.30. Stop loss at 12.85. Stock closed on Friday at 13.45.

7) UGAZ - Averaged long at 62.40 (2 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 71.76.

9) FSLR - Purchased at 61.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 51.06.

10) MSFT - Shorted at 96.43. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 100.13.

12) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.68.

13) AXP - Averaged short at 101.305 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 103.35. Stock closed on Friday at 98.52.

14) FSLR - Purchased at 53.14. Liquidated at 53.18. Profit on the trade of $4 per 100 shares minus commissions.

15) NE - Purchased at 5.76. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.18.

16) NE - Purchased at 5.50. Liquidated at 5.17. Loss on the trade of $33 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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