Issue #584
Sep 23, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Mixed Signals Given. DOW and SPX Making New Highs, NAZ Showing Topping Formation!

DOW Friday closing price - 26743
SPX Friday closing price - 2929
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7986

The DOW and SPX made new intraweek and weekly closing highs this past week but the NASDAQ regressed, having generated a red weekly close that now suggests that a successful retest of the all-time high weekly close at 8109 has occurred with the previous week's close at 8010. As such, the week had mixed results that did more to confuse than clear up given that it is the Tech Sector that can generate speculative high PE ratios but in the DOW and the SPX, which generally have established profits and expense ratios and where PE ratios above 15 are normally considered overbought, it is interesting to note that most of the companies in the DOW and SPX are showing PE ratios above 17 and in the case of MSFT that PE ratio is at 29 and in the SPX, as an example, JPM is presently at 17.9. As such and without participation from the NAZ, it is highly unlikely that further upside of consequence can occur.

The bulls did have an advantage last week given that there were no economic reports of consequence scheduled, meaning that the bulls were not facing the possibility of a negative economic report coming out and had somewhat free rein to keep the upside momentum going forward. Nonetheless, that does begin to change this week with the always important Fed Rate Decision scheduled for Wednesday and Consumer Confidence number on Tuesday, 3rd estimate of GDP and Durable Goods on Thursday and Personal Income and Capacity Utilization as well as Michigan Sentiment on Friday. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates this week (97% expectation) and therefore if it does it will not be a surprise. Nonetheless, raising interest rates will tone down the bullishness.

The DOW and SPX did make new highs in a convincing way but that also means the bulls need to confirm the new highs this week again. Previous high in the DOW is 26616 and in the SPX it is 2901, meaning that as long as the indexes stay away from those levels next Friday, the bulls will remain in control. By the same token, the traders will also be keeping a close eye on the NASDAQ as a close below 7902 next Friday would generate a sell signal.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW and the SPX show no resistance above. The NASDAQ shows minor resistance at 8057 and decent at the all-time intraweek high at 8133.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor but likely pivotal support at 26062 and mid-term pivotal at 25754. The SPX now shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 2886 and minor to perhaps decent but mid-term pivotal support at 2864 and the on an intraweek basis shows minor support at 2691, minor to perhaps decent at 2676 and then minor again at 2647. Below that, there is minor to decent at 2594 and at 2553. Midterm pivotal support is found at 2533. The NASDAQ now shows minor support at 7890 and minor to decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 7873.

With this being a fundamental news week and with the indexes giving mixed signals on Friday, the probabilities favor some backing and filling occurring on Monday and Tuesday with perhaps a slight upward bias. By the same token, the traders will be likely play it cautious until more is known by midweek. It is certainly possible that some red will be seen at the beginning of the week as the breakout levels could and likely will be tested. By the same token, the bulls are sitting in a favorable position since the earnings quarter begins in 3 weeks (October 12th) and earnings should continue to see improvement. Simply stated, the bears have nothing to stand on other than the Trade War and that has already been put to the sidelines for now until some numbers begin to change.

The bulls remain in control but with the Tech Sector not participating and giving mixed signals, the upside is likely to be limited until the earnings quarter begins and then all will depend on how those earnings reports come out. In addition, the bulls are now facing a situation where there is no support of consequence close-by below other than perhaps on a daily or weekly closing basis, suggesting that any weakness seen could increase on a domino-like fall.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I am not giving any formal mentions this week due to the uncertainty facing the market due to the mixed results given last week. Nonetheless, I am looking to buy a trio of stocks if they get down to the desired entry point levels. Probabilities do not favor that happening this week but if by any chance these stocks get down to desired entry points, I will look to be a buyer. I am giving the desired entry points, stop loss points, and objectives today:

EDC - Friday Closing Price - 86.69

Desired entry point is around 76.05. Stop loss point is at 72.25 and objective is at least the $100 level.

TOL - Friday Closing Price - 35.85

Desired entry point is around 34.34. Stop loss point is at 33.37 and objective is 38.25.

RIG Friday Closing Price - 13.54

Desired entry point is around 12.40. Stop loss point is at 11.50 and objective is $20.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA generated a strong week, having generated the 5th green weekly close in a row and closing on Friday above a decent weekly close resistance level at 43.37 (closed at 43.75). The stock closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 43.90 will be seen this week. The strength seen is because the company is expected to release results of clinical trials on one of their products and it is expected the results will be positive. The results do not have a specific day scheduled but it was said that it would be before the end of the month, which is on Friday. Resistance is found at 45.46 and more importantly at 45.85, which is the level the bulls tried to break 12 weeks ago but failed. Evidently, the action this week will be fundamentally driven. The stock has gone straight up for the last 17 trading days and as such, if there is weakness or disappointment in the report, there is no support below until 39.50-39.75 is reached. A break above 45.85 would give the bulls control. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

AXP extended its rally having generated the 7th green weekly closing in a row and making another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high this past week. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 111.77 is expected to be seen. The stock did gap up on Thursday between 110.46 and 110.65 and there was no news to support that gap, suggesting it will be closed at some point this week and likely at the beginning of the week. Like with the indexes, no support has been built on the way up. Meaning that the closest and very minor support is at 106.47. The 200 10-minute MA is currently at 110.20 and that line has not been broken for the past 10-day, suggesting that if broken it would suggest the rally will be at least on a pause. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CCJ generated a minor buy signal on the daily chart that suggests the worst of the correction might be over. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 10.10 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls have not yet accomplished enough to say the correction is over as a rally above 10.69 and a close above the 200-day MA, currently at 10.20, are still needed. Nonetheless, for this coming week the probabilities favor the bulls.

CLF made a new 19-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 12.46 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance above until very minor resistance is found at 15.40. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis the 13.00 level is considered decent resistance as it was the major low weekly close on March 2009 and a break of that resistance would suggest the stock is back into a long-term uptrend. There is no intraweek support nearby but a daily close below 12.00 would give a failure signal. A daily close below 10.88 would give a second failure signal. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but selling interest will start to be seen at the 13.00 level. It does need to be mentioned that if the bulls can close the stock above 13.00 for 2 weeks in a row, the probabilities would then favor rallies to the $23-$24 level.

ENG continues to meander around the 1.00 level based on a weekly close. The stock for the past 5 weeks has closed at 1.02, at 1.01, at 1.04, at .99, at 1.03 and on Friday at 1.00, suggesting neither the bulls nor the bears have the edge at this time. During this time frame, the stock has remained above the 200-day MA, currently at .98, meaning that the bulls maintain a slight edge. Intraweek resistance is at 1.12 and support at .98. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

FSLR generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 11-month intraweek and weekly closing low and the closing in the green and above the previous week's high. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 50.71 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls have not yet down enough to suggest the selling pressure is gone, given that the stock still closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 50.85. In addition, the bulls also need to generate a weekly close above 51.06 to generate a failure signal. Support is now minor to decent and probably pivotal at 48.00. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

LVS generated an inside week on the weekly chart but on the daily chart, the stock now shows a successful retest of the 59.11 low with a drop down to 59.84 on Tuesday, followed by 4 higher intraweek highs. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going above last week's high at 61.09 than below last week's low at 59.84. If that does occur, it will give the bulls some new ammunition. Resistance is found at 62.70 that is broken would give the bulls a new buy signal. Support remains at 59.11 that if broken would give the bears new ammunition. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

MT generated a strong spike up week and a close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 32.54 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did get up to the 200-day MA on Thursday, currently at 32.54, and on Friday the bears were able to push down to close the stock in the red and near the lows of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside. The MA has been strong resistance since June and the stock is likely to need for the indexes to continue higher to be able to break the line convincingly. Support of any consequence is not found until 30.05 and it is likely that level will be seen this week. Pivotal resistance is found at 32.93 that if broken would change the chart. Probabilities remain favoring the bears slightly, if only because the stock remains below the 200-day MA.

TXN generated a strong bounce up from the 102.25 low seen 2 weeks ago, having moved above the previous week's high up to 110.90 (an 8% rally) and closing near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to make a clear statement as the stock did not break any resistance levels nor close in a convincing way above the previous low weekly close at 109.64 (closed at 110.05), meaning the traders will wait to see what the index market does this week before making any decisions. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 112.95. Likely pivotal intraweek support is found at 107.01. Probabilities still slightly favor the bears but it is a pivotal week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.00.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.35 (new price (43.75).

3) CLF - Averaged long at 7.92 (6 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.32. Stock closed on Friday at 12.16.

4) FSLR - Purchased at 47.39. Averaged long at 54.21. (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 49.98.

5) CCJ - Purchased at 9.43. Averaged long at 10.005 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.29. Stock closed on Friday at 9.92.

6) IBM - Shorted at 147.33. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 151.35.

7) LVS - Purchased at 59.92. Stop loss at 59.01. Stock closed on Friday at 60.95.

8) AXP - Averaged short at 102.93 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 110.90.

9) ARNA - Liquidated at 42.30. Purchased at 37.47. Profit on the trade of $483 per 100 shares minus commissions.

10) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .090 (new price 1.08).

11) MT - Shorted at 32.48. Averaged short at 31.90 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 33.03. Stock closed on Friday at 32.05.


Join The Oasis and receive chart information about stocks you personally follow as well as ideas about other stocks with powerful chart patterns.

Previous Newsletters

View May 06, 2018 Newsletter

View May 13, 2018 Newsletter

View May 20, 2018 Newsletter

View May 27, 2017 Newsletter

View Jun 03, 2018 Newsletter

View Jun 10, 2018 Newsletter

View Jun 17, 2018 Newsletter

View Jun 24, 2018 Newsletter

View Jul 01, 2018 Newsletter

View Jul 08, 2018 Newsletter

View Jul 15, 2018 Newsletter

View Jul 22, 2018 Newsletter

View Jul 29, 2018 Newsletter

View Aug 05, 2018 Newsletter

View Aug 12, 2018 Newsletter

View Aug 19, 2018 Newsletter

View Sep 02, 2018 Newsletter

View Sep 16, 2018 Newsletter

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
A must have for chart aficionados!


Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




The Oasis is owned by
Oasis Resolutions Inc.