Issue #583 ![]() Sep 16, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Indexes Continue Rally but Tech Sector Starts to Fall Back!
DOW Friday closing price - 26154
The SPX was the key index this week, having made a new all-time weekly closing high though not a new intraweek high. The index closed 3 points above its previous all-time weekly closing high at 2901 and that does suggest the bulls remain in total control. The fact that it was the SPX and not the NASDAQ, which closed 99 points from its previous weekly closing high, may be indicative as it has been the NAZ that has been leading the parade when bull rallies have occurred. On the other hand though, the NAZ rallied 1.6% above its previous close, the SPX rallied 1.2% from its previous close and the DOW rallied only 1%, meaning that the rally (percentage-wise) remains as it has been this year.
The DOW did generate a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low and then closing in a new 7-month intraweek and weekly closing high, meaning that the recent intraweek high at 26167 was not a successful retest of the all-time high at 26616. The index has "open air" above until minor resistance is found at 26338 and then nothing until the all-time high is reached. All indexes closed on or near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 26211, SPX at 2908 and NAZ at 8040) is expected to be seen this week.
There are no economic reports of consequence scheduled for this coming week so from a fundamental basis there is nothing to derail further upside from being seen, other than if the unexpected news from the Trade War comes out. Simply stated, the bulls are in control.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 26338 and strong resistance will be found at the all-time high at 26616. The SPX shows minor resistance at the all-time intraweek high at 2916 and the NASDAQ show minor to perhaps decent resistance at the all-time intraweek high at 8133.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows very minor support at 25942 and the decent as well as pivotal at 25754. The SPX now shows minor to perhaps decent but pivotal support at 2864 and the NASDAQ now shows minor to decent as well as pivotal support at 7873.
The key right now is whether the NASDAQ and the Tech sector have topped out or not. GOOGL and FB gave sell signals on the weekly chart this past week and AAPL and AMZN are showing a few signs of the rally petering out, though no sell signals have yet been given. The Tech sector has been the driving force behind this rally and if that peters out, it will be difficult to continue the rally. As such, AAPL and AMZN are the stocks to keep an eye out for this week, with the recent all-time highs at 229.67 and 2050.00 respectively the levels to watch.
One additional help that the bulls received this past week were the inflation figures (PPI and CPI) which were both lower than anticipated. The Fed is unlikely to continue to follow their guidelines for raising interest rates unless inflation heats up and the figures this week were below the stated guideline for higher interest rates.
The bulls are likely to be in control again this week but once again the SPX and the NASDAQ gapped up this past week on Thursday, meaning that at some point this coming week those gaps will be closed (SPX at 2894 and NAZ at 7965). The SPX will be the index to watch to the upside given that the all-time intraweek high is 2916 and last week's high was 2908. AAPL and AMZN all-time highs (see above) and last week's lows (AAPL at 216.47 and AMZN at 1917.00) will also be worth watching.
For now though, the bulls are in control this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The bulls remain in control but the trading scenario remains the same, given that purchases offer a low and untenable risk/reward ratio and sales do not offer a high probability ratio. Nonetheless, I did find one stock that is presently oversold and near an important support level and that does offer a good risk/reward ratio as well as a decent probability rating.
LVS Friday Closing Price 61.41
LVS has dropped 27.5% in the past 12 weeks from a high at 81.45 to last week's low at 59.11. Nonetheless, the stock generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-month low and then closing in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that a temporary bottom may have has occurred. More importantly, last week's low was just 2.3% from where the 200-week MA is currently located (at 57.78) and that is an added reason to believe that the worst of the correction may be over.
LVS has no recent resistance above until the most recent high at 67.45 is reached, meaning that if the stock has found a bottom to the correction, a fast 10% move up could be seen in a short period of time.
Given that LVS has been on a strong move down, the probabilities favor some sort of retest on the daily chart of last week's low, suggesting that a drop back down to the $60 demilitarized zone is likely to be seen. There is some established support at 59.75 that could be the objective of the retest.
To the upside and using the weekly chart, the 100-week MA, currently at 64.85 is a viable objective. Nonetheless, further upside is possible, especially if the minor but short-term pivotal resistance at 67.53 is broken.
Evidently with the positive reversal seen, a break of last week's low at 59.11 would be a short-term negative sign, meaning that the stop loss will be placed at 59.01.
Purchases of LVS between 59.70 and 60.30 and using a stop loss at 59.01 and having a minimum upside objective of 64.85 will offer a 3.5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA bulls accomplished more than expected, given that the minor to decent resistance at 41.92 was broken convincingly. The stock did close on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 42.40 is expected to be seen. The next upside intraweek target is 44.50 but on a weekly closing basis there is decent resistance at 43.37 that is likely to be in play this coming week on Friday. Intraweek support should now be found at 38.78 but on a daily closing basis it is found at 39.70, which is where the 200-day MA is currently located. A confirmed close below the MA line would now be seen as a negative, given that the stock has now closed above the line the past 8 days in a row. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. AXP extended its rally having made another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high this past week. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 110.01 is expected to be seen. The stock has now generated 6 green weekly closes in a row and closed on a new all-time high 4 weeks in a row, suggesting that a red week and a retest of the breakout at $103 is now likely start soon. There is no support close by as the stock has moved straight up. The closest support is found at 104.55 and it is pivotal support. There is an open gap between 106.35 and 106.47 that should be closed at some point. Nonetheless, the bulls remain in control for now and further upside is likely to be seen this week. CCJ generated another red weekly close but the bulls were able to close the stock within the cone of support at 9.68 (closed at 9.67), meaning that the bears were unable to make any statement. By the same token, the bulls have to generate a green weekly close next Friday or the bears will gain control. On an intraweek basis, the previous week's low at 9.39 held up given that the stock got down to 9.42 on Monday and 9.39 on Tuesday, suggesting there is evident buying interest at that level. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 9.81 is expected to be seen. Resistance is found at the $10 demilitarized zone that if broken on a daily closing basis will be a positive, given that the 200-day MA is currently at 10.22. Pivotal support is found at 9.39. The probabilities favor the bulls this week but only for a rally back up to the MA line. CLF made a new 19-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.66 will be seen this week. There is minor intraweek resistance above at 11.77 and then decent at 12.37, which is the 4-year high. Nonetheless, the bulls have now been able to establish themselves above the 200-week MA, suggesting that a retest of the major 14-year low at 13.03 is likely the objective of this recent uptrend. Having closed above the previous 19 month daily closing high at 10.88, that level is now considered support on a daily closing basis. On an intraweek basis, support should be found at 10.47. The stock closed just 2 points above the previous weekly closing high at 11.49, meaning that a green close next Friday is a must as a red close would generate a double top. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG continues to meander around the 1.00 level based on a weekly close. The stock for the past 5 weeks has closed at 1.02, at 1.01, at 1.04, at .99 and on Friday at 1.03, suggesting neither the bulls nor the bears have the edge at this time. During this time frame, the stock has remained above the 200-day MA, currently at .98, meaning that the bulls maintain a slight edge. Intraweek resistance is at 1.12 and support at .98. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. FSLR generated a new 11-month intraweek and weekly closing low and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 47.59 will be seen this week. Downside objective remains the important intraweek support from February 2014 at 47.04. From that support a rally up to 74.45 occurred and that is certainly in realm of possibility at this time. Minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance at 48.95. Pivotal resistance on a weekly closing basis is at 50.70. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but only for a drop down to the $47 level. A green weekly close should occur next Friday. I will be adding shares near the $47 demilitarized zone. IBM generated a new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing high and did close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 149.30 will be seen this week. The stock shows no resistance above until the July 19th high at 150.54 is reached. That resistance is considered decent given that the 200-day MA, currently at 150.42, is also located there. By the same token, the weekly chart does not show any intraweek resistance until 153.15 is reached, if and when the 150.54 resistance is broken. There is no recently established intraweek support below until 145.25 is reached, meaning that the bulls are committed to the upside this week without any weakness seen. Evidently the 150.54 level is a big key this week. Probabilities favor the bulls. MT generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing above the previous weeks high. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 29.63 is expected to be seen. In addition and if the stock goes above last week's high, it will make last week's low at 27.97 into a successful retest of the recent low at 27.83 that would take away the edge the bears had until this past week. A rally above the recent high at 31.36 would change the chart and give the bulls the edge, meaning that a stop loss at 31.45 can now be placed. Support is now pivotal at 27.83. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. TXN confirmed the sell signal that was given the week before on the weekly closing chart, with another red weekly close. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to generate a rally from the week's low at 102.25, having rallied 3% from the lows. By the same token, the stock did close slightly below the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going below last week's low at 102.25 than above last week's high at 109.48. It is likely that the rally in the index market helped the bulls this past week and probably will help them again this week but the trend remains down, suggesting the correction is not over. Downside objective remains the $100-$101.50 level. On a daily closing basis, resistance remains decent at the 200-day MA, currently at 108.40. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls at the beginning of the week but the bears toward the latter part of the week.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.03. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.22 (new price (42.18). 3) CLF - Averaged long at 7.92 (6 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.32. Stock closed on Friday at 11.51. 4) FSLR - Purchased at 61.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 48.21. 5) CCJ - Purchased at 9.43. Averaged long at 10.005. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.67. 6) IBM - Shorted at 147.33. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 148.33. 7) MSFT - Covered shorts at 107.60. Averaged short at 108.935. Profit on the trade of $267 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions. 8) AXP - Averaged short at 102.93 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 109,56. 9) ARNA - Purchased at 37.47. Stop loss now at 34.80. Stock closed on Friday at 42.18. 10) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .088 (new price 1.06).
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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