Issue #577 ![]() Jul 22, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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No New Economic/Earnings Surprises. Indexes Idle as Traders Await New Reports!
DOW Friday closing price - 25058
The indexes generated a very uneventful week, with the DOW closing 39 points higher than the previous week's close, the SPX unchanged and the NASDAQ 6 points lower. Earnings reports failed to generate any new buying interest, economic reports were mostly as expected, and there was very little new news on the Trade War front.
This coming week there are several economic and earnings reports that could have an impact. On Monday afternoon GOOGL reports, on Wednesday afternoon it is FB, on Thursday morning the new GDP number comes out and Thursday evening it is AMZN reporting. GOOGL, FB and AMZN reporting this week means that 4 of the big 5 earnings reports are out (AAPL still left for the following week). In addition, GDP is an important report, especially considering that it is expected to come in at 4.3%. As such, there is a high chance that by the end of the week some direction will be decided upon. Given that most everything is already expected to come in better or even better than "already" expected, probabilities slightly favor the bears.
On the Trade War front, China devalued its currency on Saturday, suggesting the Trade War is also becoming a Currency War. A cheaper Yuan will make China's exports less expensive overseas and prevent China from being economically hurt while it would make the Tariffs imposed on them a bit more painful for those imposing them. This is the first time in 2 years that the Yuan has seen such a devaluation and it does seem that this was deliberate move by the Chinese Government.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 25215 and decent as well as pivotal at 25402. The SPX shows minor resistance at 2816, very minor at 2839, minor at 2852 and decent as well as long term pivotal at the all-time high at 2872. The NASDAQ shows minor resistance at 7867 and then psychological at 8000.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 24663. Below that, there is minor to decent support at 24247 and decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 23997. The SPX shows minor support at 2791 and then minor but short-term pivotal support at 2770. Below that level, there is very minor support at 2743 and then nothing until decent at 2691. The NASDAQ shows minor support at 7749 and then minor but likely short-term pivotal support at 7696 and then very minor at 7635 and minor but likely pivotal at 7595.
With the SPX having closed the runaway gap at 2812 this past week, it does suggest that the bulls are in short term control as the breakaway gap up between 2839 and 2851 will beckon strongly unless some negative fundamental news is released.
Nonetheless, with important economic and earnings reports due out this week, it is likely that some decisions will be made by Friday, meaning that unlike this past week, the weekly close next week will be indicative.
Probabilities continue to favor the bulls as the burden of proof this week will be on the shoulders of the bears, needing some negative information to stop the upside momentum. Key levels of support to watch are in the SPX at 2774 on a daily closing basis and 2786 on a weekly closing basis.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
With the general market idling this past week as the traders await further economic and earnings news, no clear direction for stocks in general is seen. Nonetheless, the same sell mention given last week is given again this week as the parameters of that mention remain the same. There are 3 new mentions this week that are oil related. Oil has been in a correction (12% so far) but is nearing (or has reached) a level of support that shoud hold and spur new buying interest and resumption of the uptrend. As such, there are 3 new mentions that are all based on oil.
CALM Friday Closing Price - 45.95
CALM made a new 56-week high on June 27th and on June 28th the stock fell 10% in value. There was no news to cause the drop but the stock had gotten to a PE ratio of 82.50 in an industry where PE ratio's average 19.6. The stock went from 52.30 to 45.30 in a matter of 4 days and did fall down to the 200-day MA, currently at 45.45. The stock did bounce back up to 47.85 after hitting the MA but further upside has not occurred and for the past 4 days it has been heading south in spite of the rally in the index market.
On a chart basis, CALM is showing a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 52.30 to 45.30 and the flag the rally up to 47.85. A break of the flag would offer a 40.85 objective which coincides with the next established support level below on both the daily and weekly charts.
CALM is a stock that for the past 4 years has traded 80% of the time between $35 and $50 and 50% of the time between $35 and $45, meaning that further downside below the present area is a decent possibility.
CALM did generate a positive reversal week this past week, having made a new 15-week low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 46.25 will be seen this week and meaning that the stock is likely to get up to the desired entry point for a short position.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, CALM shows resistance at 47.85 and again at 48.40. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the stock shows pivotal support at 45.30 and then very minor at 43.18 and then nothing until decent at 41.05.
The main reason for the short mention on CALM is the bearish inverted flag formation and the high PE ratio that makes the stock sellable, especially in the food industry that normally has not supported high PE ratios in its history.
The 200-day MA held up on this most recent drop and the positive reversal this past week suggests some new buying interest will be seen this week. As stated last week, the supportive nature of the index market and the fact that the inverted flag formation has a decent probability of requiring 1 more mini rally suggests that this rally will be used by the traders to sell into. Nonetheless, even though the stock has stayed above the 200-day MA for the past 10 months, the stock traded below the line for the previous 21 months before that, meaning that if the line is broken, a downtrend for several months or more could occur.
I do believe that CALM could generate a small rally back up to the 46.85-47.25 level where some minor resistance is found as well as the 100-day MA is currently found (at 47.17). I would be a seller at that price.
Sales of CALM above 46.70 and using a 47.95 stop loss and having a 40.85 objective will offer 5-1 risk/reward ratio. The 47.95 stop loss should be mental as there is further resistance at 48.40 but if 48.40 is broken, I would cover the shorts.
My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The rating would be higher if it wasn't for the 200-day MA, which offers a decent general support to all stocks.
CLB Friday Closing Price - 112.56
CLB is an oil related stock that has been on a short-term downtrend since May 17th (2 months) from a 23-month high at 130.34. The stock has corrected 16% during this period of time. The downtrend accelerated the first week of July when oil topped at 75.27 (currently at 68.05), having generated 80% of the correction due to the fall in oil prices.
In April, CLB broke above the 200-week MA, currently at 112.95, after trading below the line for 41 weeks. The break above the line suggests that the sideways-to-down trend is over and that the stock is either in a new sideways trend with a higher trading range or in a new uptrend. This fits in well with the rally in oil from $42 to $75 and that is still suggestive that further upside up to the $80 is still likely to be seen.
CLB closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 112.32 will be seen this week. This is also further supported with oil likely to go back down to last week's low at 66.62 or lower. Nonetheless, the recent low at 109.78, which was also at the 100-week MA, currently at 109.60, is likely to be retested with this move down that if not broken would be reason to think that a recovery rally or resumption of the uptrend would then ensue.
With CLB having closed slightly below the 200-week MA on Friday, it does suggest that a green weekly close will be seen next Friday, which would also be suggestive that the breakout above that line will have been tested successfully. The 200-day MA is currently at 111.35, suggesting that is likely to be the downside objective this week.
CLB shows intraweek support at 109.78 and minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance at 115.44 that if broken would suggest the recent correction is over. Upside objective is likely to be a minor to decent resistance at 125.83, which was an important high seen in November 2015 and in January 2017.
Purchases of CLB below 111.50 and using a stop loss at 109.55 and having a 125.83 objective will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
NE Friday Closing Price - 5.88
NE See previous mention from the June 10th newsletter.
Purchases of NE between 5.30 and 5.70 and using a stop loss at 5.05 and having at 7.76 objective will offer 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
SN Friday Closing Price - 4.69
SN is also an oil company and one that was mentioned in the message board and purchased on June 20th and liquidated at a profit on July 12th. Once again the stock is nearing a desired re-entry point
Purchases of SN between 4.28 and 4.36 and using a stop loss at 3.92 and having a 5.80 objective will offer 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA had an uneventful week, having traded once again between the 43.00 and 45.35 trading range that has been seen over the past 3 weeks. Once again, the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going below last week's low at 43.05 than above last week's high at 45.00. By the same token, the formation presently in place (inverted flag formation) suggests the outcome will be to the downside with a 36.80 objective. Pivotal resistance is found at 45.85 and pivotal support at 41.50. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. CCJ generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low and then closing in the green, on the highs of the week, and above the previous week's high, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.20 will be seen this week. Minor resistance is found at 11.39 and minor to perhaps decent at 11.68. Above that level, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 11.91 that is further strengthened by the 200-week MA, currently at 11.86. Support is now found at 10.52 and 10.31. The stock got up to the MA line in June for the first time in 4 years and expectedly so was turned back. It is highly likely that on this occasion the line will be visited again and though the probabilities do not favor the line getting broken, there will be a higher probability of it getting broken than the previous time, especially since the company reports earnings on Wednesday after the market close and that could have a catalytic effect on the stock. Probabilities favor the bulls. CLF reported earnings and they were much better than expected ($.73 vs expected $.52) and the stock made a new 17-month high and in a spike-up manner, as well as closing on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.38 will be seen this week. Minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 10.90 and decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 12.37. On a daily closing basis, support will now be decent at 9.00. The spike up suggests that this week the stock will continue higher up to at least the 10.90 level but more likely up to the 46-month high at 12.37. The stock has now spent the last 4 months above the 200-week MA, currently at 6.20, meaning that the long term downtrend is broken and that a sideways to now possibly up trend is in place. The probabilities do suggest that the 12.37 level will be tested and broken on this attempt and that a rally up to the 13.00 level will occur. The $13 level is an important previous low weekly close from 2009 that stood up for 5 years before getting broken to the downside in 2014. A weekly close above that level would mean that the stock is ready to start a new uptrend of consequence with $27-$30 as the objective. Weekly close resistance is found at 9.93, a bit stronger at 11.17 and decent as well as long term pivotal at 11.49. A red weekly close next Friday would slightly and short-term weaken the chart. It is doubtful that the $13 area will be broken the first time it is seen but that level is definitely the objective of this move. ENG continued to trade within its 8-week trading range between 1.06 and 1.47, having traded last week between 1.23 and 1.32. The stock did close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.32 will be seen this week. The 200-week MA is now down to 1.37, suggesting that if the stock goes above last week's high that a break of that line could occur at the end of the week. A weekly close above 1.40 would also break a decent double top resistance that has been in place for the past 14-months and suggest that a strong recovery rally would occur with 1.75 as the first and bull flag objective but likely with the 5-point 10-year downtrend line, currently at 2.44, as the overall objective. . The company reports earnings in 2 weeks and the earnings report is likely to be a positive catalyst for a breakout, given the 6 months of strong base building that occurred between October and April. Weekly close support is found at 1.14 that if broken would negate the positive outlook. Probabilities favor the bulls. FCEL made a new 15-trading day high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.46 will be seen this week. The new high and mini bullish flag that was built on the daily chart this week, suggests that the stock may have built a bottom and that some recovery may be on the horizon. The mini bullish flag offers a 1.55 upside objective. By the same token, the bulls need to generate a weekly close above 1.65 to negate the weakness seen since the earnings report came out and that is still a very low possibility, meaning that the stock is likely to continue to trade sideways for the next 4-6 weeks between 1.30 and perhaps 1.65. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but just for a mini rally. FSLR remains in a directionless trading range as the traders await the earnings report that comes out on Thursday after close. The chart formation favors the bears for further downside but the fundamentals support the bulls for continuation of the recent sideways trend or for a recovery rally to occur. There is a double high resistance at 55.70/55.75 that if broken would suggest a rally up to the recent weekly close breakdown point at 61.23 that is further strengthened by the 50-week MA, currently at 61.10. Weekly close support is found at 50.23 that if broken a minimum drop down to 48.50 would be seen and open the door for potential drops all the way down to the $43-$45 area. Earnings are expected to come in at -$.03 cents compared to a year ago at +$.64 cents. Common sense would suggest earnings will be better than expected, suggesting a rally up to the $61 is the most probably outcome. TWNK made a new 13-week high and closed slightly above the 3-point downtrend line, currently at 14.33, that has been in place for the past 14-months. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 14.43 is expected to be seen this week. Minor resistance is found at 14.89 and decent as well as pivotal at 14.98. The downtrend line had never been broken, not even on an intraweek basis, meaning that if follow through to the upside is seen this week that it could well be a tangible sign that the downtrend is over. The stock is showing a triangle formation that if confirmed broken (a rally above 14.98) would offer a 19.29 upside objective which would be a new all-time high above the present one at 17.18. The stock reports earnings either on August 7th or August 14th. A red weekly close next week would mean the breakout would be negated. Intraweek support is now found at 14.09 that if broken would shift the probabilities back to the bears. Probabilities presently favor the bulls.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .1175 (new price 1.41). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.32. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.38 (new price (43.82). 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.01. Stock closed on Friday at 9.96. 5) TWNK - Averaged long at 13.50 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 12.85. Stock closed on Friday at 14.40. 7) UGAZ - Liquidated at 53.01. Purchased at 54.71. Loss on the trade of $170 per 100 shares plus commissions. 8) FSLR - Purchased at 61.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 53.48. 9) CCJ - Purchased at 10.58. Stop loss at 10.25. Stock closed on Friday at 11.16. 10) ARNA - Purchased at 41.93. Stop loss at 41.20. Stock closed on Friday at 43.82. 11) CLF - Purchased at 8.58. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.96.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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