Issue #578 ![]() Jul 29, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Decision Week Ahead!
DOW Friday closing price - 25451
The indexes shifted around in an indicative way as the DOW became the leader to the upside this week having generated a 1.6% rally, followed by the SPX with a .4% rally and the NASDAQ bringing up the rear with a 1% fall. The shifting of leadership suggests that the week was indicative given that the NAZ had been the impressive leader since April, having gained 14.3% in value compared with the SPX at 10.4% and the DOW at 8.8%. It had been very evident that the Tech industry has outperformed all the others and that now seems to have changed.
The NASDAQ generated several negative signals starting with a key reversal week, having made a new all-time high at 7933 and then closing below the previous week's low at 7749, giving a sell signal on the daily closing chart, having closed below the low daily close for the past 2 weeks at 7805 and giving a failure signal, having closed below the previous all-time high daily close at 7781. Key reversals (new all-time high and a close below the previous weeks low) are extremely rare. In the last 3 years (since a new all-time high was made in 2015 above 5132) there has only been 1 and that one can be thrown out given that it came the last week of the year and neither the volume nor the action was indicative. As it is, that one in Dec16 is the only reversal seen in the past 18 years where the index went above a previous weekly high and closed below the previous week's low. As such, it strongly suggests that at the very least a top to this rally has been found for the next couple of months.
The first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter are now just about over and there doesn't seem to be any potential catalytic reports left (other than AAPL reporting on Tuesday after the close) that could give the bulls new ammunition. By the same token, AAPL is unlikely at this time to show a much better than expected report that would stimulate the market to new highs. The ISM Index and Jobs reports come out this week on Wednesday and Friday respectively but it is difficult to believe that these reports could be substantially better than anticipated given that they are already at the best levels in many years. As such, it does seem that the bulls have run out of ammunition with which to continue going higher during the summer months.
Attention is now likely to turn to the DOW given that is now likely to be the leader to the upside and the anchor to the downside. The index did make a new 6-month weekly closing high, breaking above a triple top on the weekly closing chart between 25309 and 25335. The triple top was expected to be broken as multiple tops generally are but now the question is whether the bulls will be able to continue higher or generate a failure signal given that the objective (breaking the triple top) has occurred. The index closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 25587 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, all attention will be on the close next Friday as that will be a determinant for the traders as to what to do for the next 2+ months until the next set of earnings reports come out.
Attention will also be given to the SPX given that the index came close to closing the breakaway gap at 2851 this past week with a rally up to 2848. It is expected that the gap will be closed but if it isn't and a failure signal on the weekly closing chart occurs (a close below 2786 next Friday) is given, it will give the bears new ammunition to push the index strongly lower.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows decent resistance at 25800 (on a daily closing basis at 25709). Above that level, there is no resistance until very minor at 26153, minor again at 26338 and then major at the all-time high at 26616. The SPX shows minor to decent resistance at 2848, very minor at 2852 and major at the all-time high at 2872. The NASDAQ now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 7806, again at 7867 and now major at the all-time high at 7933.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 24983. Below that, there is minor to perhaps decent support at 24535 that is also indicative support at the 200-day MA is currently at 24555. The SPX shows minor but short-term pivotal support at between 2789 and 2795, very minor at 2770 and then nothing until decent and indicative support is found at 2694. The NASDAQ shows minor support at 7635 and then minor but short-term indicative support at 7595. Below that there is no support until decent support is reached at 7419.
This coming week is very important as the earnings and economic reports that come out will likely confirm and/or fortify whatever the traders are thinking. Last week was a pivotal week in many ways but the results were mixed. This week is likely to be a confirmation week with the traders getting the kind of signals they need to plan for the action to be seen the next 2 months until the next set of earnings reports come out.
The traders will be watching how much lower the NASDAQ will go with the level to watch being 7419. A break below that support level will bring in heavy selling interest. The traders will also be watching the DOW and the 25800 level as well as to the downside a weekly close below 25300 as that too will give then an idea of what to expect the next 2 months. A break above 25800 will likely mean more of a sideways market until October with the DOW leading but the NAZ slightly weakening. The SPX will be the pivot index as a failure to close the gap, followed by a drop below 2789 would bring in new selling interest of consequence while closure of the gap as well as a rally in the DOW above 25800 would suggest a sideways market until October as well.
At this time and with what has been seen so far, the outlook continues to slightly favor the bulls for a sideways market until October. Nonetheless, you now have the chart parameters of where things could go south if the traders decide on that direction.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I did not have time this weekend to do any new research on new stocks that could be bought or sold this coming week. Nonetheless, the research that I did on held stocks did uncover some new opportunities that I plan to take advantage of this week.
1) Adding positions in SN under 4.00 while lowering my stop loss to 3.48.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated a 12.3% drop this past week and that now adds up to a 23% drop from the 21-month high at 50.05 over the past 6 weeks. The drop of 20%+ is a sign that the recent uptrend is over until such a time that the fundamentals change again for the positive. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 38.34 is expected to be seen this week. The stock had built a bearish inverted flag formation that offered a 36.85 downside objective and that now seems like a high probability of happening with the stock having broken the bottom of the flag this past week and spiking lower. The stock was showing minor to decent support at 38.50 and 39.00 that got broken this past week as well, meaning that further downside is now highly probable. The next level of intraweek support on the chart (minor to perhaps decent) is found between 36.80 and 36.88. By the same token and on a weekly closing basis, support is found at 37.85 as that is where the 200-week MA is currently at and that is a line that has not been seen or broken since June 2017 (13 months) and is unlikely to be broken on a weekly closing basis this week given that there has not been any negative change of fundamentals. The first fall in the recent downtrend occurred from 50.05 to 41.50 and it took 2 weeks to accomplish with the second week the stock generating a positive reversal week (green weekly close). As such, there is a high probability of the same thing happening this week, with the stock dropping down somewhere close to the downside objective at 36.85 and then closing next Friday above 38.46. The worst case scenario would be a second red weekly close but at or slightly above the 200-week MA at 37.85. As such, any break below 37.00 should be considered for purchases. To the upside, resistance will now be found at 41.92 (minor to perhaps decent), at 42.74 (minor), at 44.50 (minor to perhaps decent) and at 45.35/45.85 (decent). Chart presently suggests that the stock will be in a trading range between $37 and $43 for the next 2-3 months. CALM did not follow through to the upside off of the previous week's close near the highs of the week and ended up breaking the 200-week MA, currently at 44.65, on an intraweek basis. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to rally the stock to close above the MA line and close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 45.75 than below last week's low at 43.50. Nonetheless, having failed to rally above the previous week's high last week, does open the door for the same thing to happen this week, especially if the indexes head lower as expected. The stock did generate a confirmed break of the 200-day MA, currently at 45.60 and given that it trade all week below that line, a rally above last week's high at 45.75 would likely be a signal that the short position should be covered. I will keep the stop loss at 46.35 but will consider covering the short if 45.75 is broken. Probabilities favor the bears. CCJ reported earnings and they were better than expected. Nonetheless and after a spike up to 12.15, the stock generated a red weekly close as well as a close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 10.63 will be seen this week. The selloff from the highs was likely because the stock once again went up to the 200-week MA, currently at 11.83, with the rally up to 12.15 and failed to break the previous intraweek high at 12.19 and the traders liquidated their positions. The stock has been trading below the 200-week MA for the past 4 years, has only broken the line once in the past 7 years and only twice in the last 10 years, meaning that the selloff was mostly technical in nature as breaking a long established MA line (as the 200-week MA is) is not easy. Nonetheless and after the earnings report came out, upgrades were given with a raising of the target from $15 to $16, suggesting that further downside if seen will be limited. Intraweek support is found at 10.52, at 10.31 and at the $10-demilitarized zone which is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 9.98. If the bears are able to break the most recent low at 10.52, it would likely mean that the 200-day MA would be tested. By the same token, the intraweek support between 10.31 and 10.41 spans 30 months and 4 previous spike lows, suggesting that it will be very difficult for that support level to be broken, especially given the better than expected earnings report and upgrades. As such, purchasing additional shares between 10.31 and 10.52 seems like a good option to institute. CLB made a new 15-week intraweek and weekly closing low this past week and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 110.01 will be seen this week. The stock closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 12.60, and if the break is confirmed this coming week with another close below that level next Friday, the chart outlook is likely to change. By the same token, there is weekly close support between 109.00 and 109.53 that is indicative, meaning that even if the stock confirms the break of the MA next Friday that not all may be lost for the bulls if they are able to stay above the 109.00 level for the weekly close. A convincing close next Friday below 109.00 would be strongly short-term detrimental to the chart. On an intraweek basis though, below the recent low at 109.78 there is no support until 107.16 is reached, meaning that the stop loss at 109.65 should be maintained. Oil generated an inside week last week and closed in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that a rally above last week's high at 69.92 or below last week's low at 67.56 will be short-term indicative and will likely color what the traders do with the stock. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 114.19 and a bit stronger and more pivotal at 115.44. The stock did report earnings this past week and they came out as expected. The rating companies maintained their "overweight" status but several of them lowered their upside projections to $118. The chart does suggest a decent probability of the stock getting into a sideways trading range between $107 and $121 for the next few months. Probabilities favor the bears this week. CLF generated another green weekly close but the bulls began finding selling interest as the stock approached the high weekly close for the past 46 months at 11.49, having gone up to 11.44 this past week and then falling back to close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 1010.12 than above last week's high at 11.44. On a slightly positive note, the bulls were able to break the minor to perhaps decent resistance at 9.93, suggesting that the $10 demilitarized zone will now likely become a support level of note. The probabilities now favor the stock doing some backing and filling over the next 2-3 weeks between 9.70 and 11.49. By the same token, the outlook remains bullish for a run to the $13 level to be seen over the next 2 months. ENG continued to trade within its 8-week trading range between 1.06 and 1.47, having traded last week between 1.20 and 1.32. The stock did close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.20 will be seen this week. The bullish flag formation remains in place that offers a 1.80 objective if the top of the flag at 1.47 gets broken. Nonetheless, this week it does seem like the 9-week low at 1.10 will be tested with a drop down to either 1.16 or even 1.12. Nonetheless, there have been no changes in the fundamental outlook, suggesting more of the same as has been seen for the past 9 weeks will be seen. The company reports earnings on Wednesday August 7th and it is likely that will be the catalyst for movement. Probabilities continue to favor sideways trading this week. FCEL made a new 54-week low weekly close on Friday and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.30 will be seen this week. The bulls have failed to generate enough buying to test the weekly close breakdown point at 1.65 and selling interest has therefore comeback. Intraweek support is found at 1.25 but if broken there is no support until 1.00 is reached. On a weekly closing basis though, there is no support below until .93 is reached, suggesting that a break below 1.25 will result in that all-time low weekly close getting tested. Probabilities favor the bears. FSLR reported earnings and they were substantially below expectations and the stock made a new 9-month intraweek low with a drop down to 48.00. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to confirm the negative report, having rallied to close on Friday slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range and above the low weekly close at 50.23 that had been in place for the past 7 weeks, suggesting that the worst of the recent correction is over and that a spike bottom at 48.00 has likely been built. As it is, the charts had previously suggest that the stock would drop down to the 48.00-48.50 level even before the earnings report came out and now it has happened and the end result (in spite of the negative earnings report) is that the traders are now likely to try to rally the stock rather than try to work lower prices. The stock did gap down on Friday after the report came out but then reversed to close near the highs of the day, suggesting closure of the gap at 53.45 will be the first objective. Closure of the gap would confirm the positive reversal seen and suggest that support will now likely be found between 48.50 and 49.50 when a retest of the 48.00 low seen on 'Friday occurs. As such, purchases of the stock can now be considered on any dip below 50.00 with a stop loss at 47.65 and an upside objective of $60 or even possibly as high as $65. Probabilities favor volatility being seen this week but a possible trading range of 49.50 to 53.50. SN generated a second red weekly close in a row but closed on Friday at a level of support around 4.30 that has a high probability of holding up given that support level held up for 3 months between October and January and when broken caused the stock to trade down to 2.94 and be in a sideways trend between those 2 levels for 5 months before a breakout/failure signal was generated that then took the stock up to the $5 level. It also needs to be mentioned that the stock (based on weekly closes) seems to be building a bullish inverted Head & Shoulders formation with the left shoulder at 4.30, the head at 2.94 and the right shoulder in the process of being built with a decent chance of it being at 4.32 (Friday's close). The objective of the flag, if the right neckline at 5.04 is broken, is 7.14 and to be reached over a 10-week period of time. It also needs to be stated that the 200-week MA is currently at 7.62 and that is an extremely viable upside objective as well, suggesting the formation being formed is valid and likely to work to perfection. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 4.10 is expected to be seen. The stock shows minor to perhaps decent intraweek support at 3.92 and then decent and unlikely to be broken at 3.58. The probabilities do favor one of those 2 levels being seen intraweek this week but a green close occurring next Friday, suggesting that any dip below 4.00 should be bought with a stop loss at 3.48. The formation is so clearly defined and suggestive of a bullish outcome that aggressive purchases should be considered. TWNK generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 14-week intraweek high and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.94 will be seen this week. The previous week the stock did break above a 3-point downtrend line on the weekly closing chart that is presently at 14.00 and therefore the red weekly close on Friday at 14.09 is likely just a retest of the breakout, which is normal to be seen. Weekly close support is found between 13.94 and 14.00 and daily close support is found at 13.94 that should not be broken if the bulls want to confirm the breakout and look for higher prices. Intraweek resistance is found at 14.50 that if broken would give the bulls new and likely stronger ammunition. The company reports earnings on Tuesday August 7th and that report is likely to be catalytic for the stock. Intraweek support is found at last week's low at 13.94 and then again at 13.70. If the latter is broken, the bears will regain the edge. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .108 (new price 1.30). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.24. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.85 (new price (38.46). 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.01. Stock closed on Friday at 10.67. 5) TWNK - Averaged long at 13.50 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 12.85. Stock closed on Friday at 14.40. 7) SN - Purchased at 4.26. Stop loss at 3.48. Stock closed on Friday at 4.32. 8) FSLR - Purchased at 61.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 51.65. 9) CCJ - Purchased at 10.58. Stop loss at 10.25. Stock closed on Friday at 10.83. 10) ARNA - Liquidated at 41.44. Purchased at 41.93. Loss on the trade of $49 per 100 shares plus commissions. 11) CLF - Purchased at 8.58. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.67. 12) CLB - Purchased at 110.39 and at 110.67. Averaged long at 110.53. Stop loss at 109.65. Stock closed on Friday at 110.83. 13) CALM - Shorted at 45.65. Stop loss at 46.35. Stock closed on Friday at 45.00.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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