Issue #579 ![]() Aug 5, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Indecisive Outlook as Reports Ambiguous!
DOW Friday closing price - 25462
The traders this past week were unable to make any clear decisions though the role reversals from last week got inverted again with the NASDAQ leading the parade with a 1% increase in price, the SPX with a .8% increase and the DOW with only a .05% increase. The first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter are now over, as well as the release of the 2 most important reports of the month in the form of the ISM Index and Jobs report and with the exception of the earnings report on AAPL that was better than expected and did generate a new all-time high in the stock, none of the other reports was out of line in any way of consequence, meaning that the fundamental picture remains much like it was the week before.
The traders are now faced with no clear direction for the next 4 weeks other than some momentum to the upside and a seasonal tendency for August to be a slight negative month. Over the past 64 years, the average August return on investment in the SPX has been a minus -.27%, meaning that based on the average of the last 64 years and last month's close at 2816, the close for August would be 2808, which is only 32 points lower than the close last Friday. Of course, this is the average of the 64 years and generally none of the months in that period of time closed on the average itself.
It was perhaps indicative that Jobs report day was not as good as it has been the last 3 months. The last 3 months the NASDAQ (as the example) has rallied above the previous day's close (Thursday) an average of 1.5% on the day the report came out (1.4%, 1.5% and 1.6%). This time the rally above Thursday's close was only .2% and that could be indicative that the August seasonal tendency to be a down month will continue to prevail this August.
Then again, the NASDAQ seems to be starting to take a back seat to the other indexes and it is possible (perhaps even probable) that trend will continue in August, meaning that the DOW and the SPX could generate a slightly down month and the NASDAQ could have a stronger down month.
All indexes have resistance levels above that are unlikely to be broken in August. The DOW at 25800, the SPX at the all-time high at 2872 and the NASDAQ at the all-time high at 7933. Those resistance levels are all up between 1.2% and 1.6% above Friday's close, meaning that "as a group" the levels will either hold up or get broken.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 25587 and then decent at 25800 (on a daily closing basis at 25709). The SPX shows minor to decent resistance at 2848, very minor at 2852 and major at the all-time high at 2872. The NASDAQ now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 7867 and now major at the all-time high at 7933.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 25120, minor at 24983 and then minor but likely indicative support at 24667, which is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at that level. The SPX shows minor to perhaps decent as well as short-term pivotal support at 2795. Below that level, there is minor support at 2770 and then nothing until decent at 2694. The NASDAQ shows very minor support at 7741 and then again at 7696 and then decent as well as pivotal at 7604.
This coming week and probably this coming month is going to be mostly technical trading unless the Trade War heats up additionally. The indexes do not have any fundamental support for new highs above the ones mentioned above and no reasons for a big drop down to start.
It is interesting to note that the all-time high monthly close in the SPX is at 2823 and last months close was 2816 and given that making any new all-time closing highs in August are unlikely to occur, the probabilities favor the bears this month, at least for a close below 2816 on August 31st.
In fact and considering the importance of the mid-term elections in November, the probabilities are likely to favor the bears given the uncertainty of the Republicans holding on to the House and the Senate and continuing to do what they want, which is to continue to stimulate untethered growth in the market. As such, there is more of a possibility of August being a decent to strong down month than the opposite.
For this coming week though, the probabilities do favor further upside with the DOW getting up to at least 25587, the SPX up to close the gap at 2851 and the NASDAQ up to 7867. After that occurs, the bulls are likely to be on the defensive and trying to prevent the bears from taking control of the market.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
With the market having no clear direction and more likely to trade sideways than up or down, I will key on adding to the stocks that I have been closely monitoring during the last few weeks and that are close to either pivotal levels or levels of support that should hold.
I will be also be looking for 1 or 2 opportunities to short stocks but will wait until the outlook for the index market is clearer before giving the mentions. If that opportunity arises during the week, the mentions will be given in the message board.
1) I will look to add positions in SN if the stock can get above the 4.64 level. If that occurs, the stop loss will be at 4.05. Objective remains 7.50.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018, as of 7/1 Profit of $5832 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for July per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
NONE
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.
NE (long) $27 Total Profit for July, per 100 shares and after commissions $63 Closed out losing trades for July per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
UGAZ (long) $89
AAPL (short) $193 AXP (short) $72 UGAZ (long) $184 FSLR (long) $372 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
FB (short) $116 Total Loss for July, per 100 shares, including commissions $1256 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 8/1
CCJ (long) $22
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
TWNK(long) $82 CLF (long) $1416 Total $1928 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 8/1
NONE
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
ARNA (long) $179 Total $252 Status of trades for month of July per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Profit of $483
Status of account/portfolio for 2018, as of 7/31Profit of $6315 using 100 shares traded per mention.
ARNA continued lower this past week, having now dropped 24.8% from the 50.05 high. Nonetheless, the stock is now close to several downside objectives that are unlikely to be broken, especially after such a big drop in which the fundamental picture has not changed. The company reports earnings on Monday after the close and though this is a Bio-pharma stock that will not be reporting profits, it is likely the report will be more of a positive catalyst than a negative one due to the cheaper price. On an intraweek basis there is clear support from a couple of lows seen in February between 36.80 and 36.88 as well as from the inverted flag formation objective of 36.85. In addition and going back 10 years, there is weekly close support of consequence between 34.20 and 37.40, that was important on 8 different occasions during those years, meaning that without a negative catalyst it is unlikely this area will be broken. Last but not least, there is a 3 point trend line that connects on a daily closing basis at 37.82 and on an intraweek basis at 36.40. As such, purchases of the stock below 37.30 can (and should) be considered. Upside objective for the short term is anywhere between 41.92 and 45.85. CALM generated an inside week but another red weekly close, which was exactly on the 200-week MA, currently at 44.60, suggesting that the close next Friday (red or green) will help the traders make a decision on the direction for the next few weeks. The stock has now fallen 16.9% from its recent high at 52.30, meaning that further downside could negate the last 22 weeks of trading above the MA line and put the stock in a position that a drop below 41.94 would signal a bear market. The stock has traded above the MA on 33 of the past 54 weeks, suggesting a slightly higher probability of a green close than a red close next Friday. The 200-day MA, currently at 45.65, and the most recent high at 45.75 are now levels of pivotal resistance that if broken would suggest a minor bull rally would likely be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bears simply because the index market is likely to have a red month. CCJ generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 9-week low but then closing in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.21 will be seen this week. The stock reported earnings 3 weeks ago and they were better than expected but the bears were able to push down after the stock failed to make a new 6-month high above the one made 8 weeks ago at 12.19, as well as failing for the second time in the same period of time to break through the MA line, currently at 11.80, after getting up to it. Nonetheless, the bears failed to break the 13-week low at 10.30 and the buying interest returned. Resistance is found at 11.67 and then decent as well as pivotal between 12.15 and 12.19. If able to break above the 12.19/12.15 resistance area and close above the MA line, the bulls will gain control to rally the stock up to the important and long term resistance area between 13.00 and 13.59 area that would determine whether the stock has broken the long-term downtrend. Support of importance remains at 10.30. In looking at the chart, the stock should not get below 10.70 anymore. Probabilities favor the bulls. CLB generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 17-week intraweek low but then reversing to close in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 113.13 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock still closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 112.55, meaning that the reversal is not yet indicative that a bottom has been found. On a negative note, the stock remains below the 200-day MA, currently at 112.20, and has been below that line for the past 9 trading days, keeping the edge on the side of the bears. By the same token, the bears have not been able to generate follow through of consequence to the break of the line that occurred for the first time on July 23rd, meaning that the $110-$112 level remains a support level of consequence. A daily close above 112.12 or below 110.11 will likely clear up the present conundrum between the bulls and bears. The stock will likely move up or down based on what oil does and the oil chart remains inconclusive for short-term direction, trading presently in a trading range between $67 and $70. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls for no other reason than the mid-term trend remains up. CLF continued the uptrend based on the weekly closing chart, having generated the 3rd green weekly close since the earnings report came out. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 10.96 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 11.44 and decent 12.37 12.37. On a short-term bullish note, any close above Friday's close at 10.88 will signal a breakout on the daily closing chart of a flag formation that offers a 13.25 upside daily close objective. The key issue facing the stock remains the 13.00 level on a weekly closing basis. That was a major low seen in 2009 and that held up until 2014 when it was broken. Since then and for the past 4 years the stock has traded below that level. As such, the probabilities strongly favor that level being tested at some point soon with that level being the main determinant as to whether the long-term downtrend is over or not. Probabilities favor the bulls this week for a rally and close next Friday at or above 11.49. ENG continued to trade within its 9-week trading range between 1.06 and 1.47, having traded last week between 1.20 and 1.33. The stock did close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week. The bullish flag formation remains in place that offers a 1.80 objective if the top of the flag at 1.47 gets broken. Nonetheless, there have been no changes in the fundamental outlook, suggesting more of the same as has been seen for the past 10 weeks will be seen. The company reports earnings on Wednesday August 15th and it is likely that will be the catalyst for movement. Probabilities continue to favor sideways trading this week with perhaps a slight bias to the upside. FCEL made a new 54-week intraweek and weekly closing low closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.25 will be seen this week. The bears maintain control and if the minor daily close support at 1.22 gets broken there is no support until the 1.00 level is reached. The fundamental picture remains negative and with no news event scheduled or earnings report due out for at least 5 weeks, it does seem highly likely that the stock will test the 1.00 level before any recovery of consequence occurs. FSLR generated an inside week but a green weekly close, suggesting that the negativity of the earnings report the prior week has gone away. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 54.15 is likely to be seen this week. By the same token and even though a major low at 48.00 now seems to be in place, the probabilities favor some backing and filling over the next 2-4 weeks while a bottom is fulfilled and confirmed. It is highly likely that a trading range between 50.25 and 54.50 will be seen while that backing and filling occurs. Any drops near the 50.30 should be considered for purchase. Ultimately and if a bottom is confirmed, the upside objective will be $60/$61. Probabilities favor sideways trading this week. SN generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 6-week high and then closing in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.39 will be seen this week. Like with CLB, the stock is dependent on what oil does and with the oil chart being unclear at this time, the outlook for the week is unclear as well. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a green weekly close, meaning that the previous week's close at 4.32 has now become the right shoulder of a bullish inverted Head & Shoulders formation, suggesting that the probabilities favor the bulls. Intraweek support is found at 4.21 and at 4.10, neither of which is likely to be broken. Pivotal resistance remains at 5.13 but a break above 4.80 is likely to give the bulls the edge. Probabilities favor more sideways trading this week. TWNK generated a positive reversal week, having gone below last week's low and then closing above last week's high and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above 14.70 will be seen this week. The rally this past week also confirmed the previous week's close at 14.09 as a successful retest of the 3-point line breakout and suggests that the bulls are now in control. The company reports earnings on Tuesday after the close and the probabilities favor the report being positively catalytic. Resistance is found at 14.98 that if broken would confirm the breakout and offer a rally at least up to test the all-time high at 17.18. Nonetheless, the breakout of the 3-point trend line offers a 19.28 objective. Support is now pivotal at 13.79, meaning that the stop loss can now be raised to 13.69.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .104 (new price 1.25). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.31. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.78 (new price (37.82). 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.918 (6 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.01. Stock closed on Friday at 10.88. 5) TWNK - Averaged long at 13.50 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 13.69. Stock closed on Friday at 14.42. 7) SN - Purchased at 4.39. Averaged long at 4.325 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 3.48. Stock closed on Friday at 4.40. 8) FSLR - Purchased at 61.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 52.84. 9) CCJ - Purchased at 10.58. Stop loss at 10.25. Stock closed on Friday at 11.17. 10) CLB - Averaged long at 110.53. Stop loss at 109.65. Stock closed on Friday at 111.65. 11) CALM - Shorted at 45.65. Stop loss at 46.35. Stock closed on Friday at 44.60.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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