Issue #581 ![]() Aug 19, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bears Suffer Relapse After Trade War Jitters Ease.
DOW Friday closing price - 25669
The indexes produced a mixed week with the DOW and SPX both generating green weekly closes but the NASDAQ closing red. Nonetheless, all indexes rallied from the lows of the week to close either slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range (NAZ) or near the highs of the week (DOW and SPX), suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week.
The rally in the indexes was triggered by a report that low level talks between the U.S. and China had begun (after 2 months of silence) regarding the Trade War, ameliorating some of the worries about the continued escalation of it. The second reason for the rally was because the DOW and the SPX reached levels of minor to decent support (DOW at 25,000 and SPX at 2800) where buying was automatically seen.
The DOW outperformed the other indexes, having rallied 3% from the lows, whereas the SPX rallied 1.9% and the NASDAQ 2%. As such and with the money mostly heading toward the "safe" Blue Chip stocks, it does not suggest that it is resumption of the uptrend but simply a small technical rally backed by the possibility of the Trade War easing in the near future. The DOW did generate a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low and then making a new 6-month intraweek and weekly closing high.
On a possible positive note for the bulls, the DOW and the SPX did close the gaps to the downside that were generated 2 weeks ago, meaning that the possible breakaway/runaway gap formation that the bears were hoping for did not materialize. It does take some ammunition away from the bears and puts the indexes back into a news oriented sideways trading range scenario.
This coming week there are no economic reports that could be catalytic for either the bulls of the bears. The FOMC minutes from the last meeting will come out on Wednesday and Durable Goods on Friday but neither is expected to have any surprises. As such, this coming week will once again likely be technical in nature unless some unexpected news comes out.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows decent and pivotal resistance at 25800. On a daily closing basis, that same resistance is found at 25709. The SPX shows minor to decent resistance at 2863 and then major at the all-time high at 2872. On a daily closing basis, the same resistances are located at 2858 and at 2872. The NASDAQ now shows minor resistance at 7888, a bit stronger at 7923 and now major at the all-time high at 7933.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor to perhaps decent support at 25126 and decent as well as pivotal at 24965. The SPX now shows minor support at 2819 and the decent as well as pivotal between 2802 and 2795. The NASDAQ shows minor support at 7752 and minor to perhaps decent as well as short-term pivotal at 7732. Further support is found at 7696 and the decent as well as pivotal at 7604.
The DOW is going to be the key index this coming week given the decent intraweek resistance at 25800, which is only 131 points away from Friday's close. On a daily closing basis though, the resistance is at 25709, meaning that it is only 40 points from Friday's close and that is a small amount compared to the 775 points the index rallied from low to high last week. The SPX will also have some importance this week as the 2763 level is now seen as a successful retest of the 2872 all-time high and given that the index closed at 2850 on Friday, an intraweek rally of only 13 points would suggest the bulls have new strength and that the all-time high would be tested and possibly broken.
As such, this coming week is important as the bulls don't have to do much to trigger new buying interest. By the same token, there has not been any positive fundamental change and if the bulls were unable to make new highs in the NASDAQ and SPX 2 weeks ago when they were closer than now, the probabilities do not suggest them being successful at this time. As such, this scenario does suggest mostly backing and filling between support and resistance levels and more red than green will be seen this coming week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There is quite a bit of uncertainty this week as to what the index market is going to do. The indexes did recover last week after hitting short-term support levels of importance but breaking resistance levels of importance is what the bulls need to do and it is unlikely that will happen unless the Trade War ameliorates in strength.
As such, this coming week is not likely to generate much movement as the traders seek clues as to what the short-term outlook may be and therefore more backing and filling rather than movement in any direction is likely to be seen. Such a scenario is not a great positive for trading.
Nonetheless, there are 2 presently held stocks that do offer an opportunity for additional purchases due to their own individual chart outlooks and as such, I will be looking to purchase additional shares if the stocks get down to desired entry points.
ARNA shows a lot of support between the 33.00 and 35.00, going back 4 years, and as such and without any new negative news, the stock is considered a purchase somewhere in that area (see held stock update below). As such, I am planning to purchase additional shares around the 35.10 area and use a 32.90 stop loss. Objective is $43-$45 so the risk/reward ratio is around 4-1.
FSLR has fallen 42% in value over the past 4 months but finds itself at the 200 week MA and at the strong psychological support at $50 where the bulls have mounted a strong defense for the past 10 weeks (see held stock update below). The company remains the #1 company in the Solar Industry in the U.S. and solar remains a viable energy source for the future and there are too many positives for purchasing the stock in this area. I am planning on purchasing additional shares around the 50.00 level and using a stop loss at 47.65 and having an objective of $62. It is a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated another red weekly close, the 6th in a row, but on an intraweek basis the stock had an inside week (higher lows and lower highs than the previous week), suggesting that the selling interest is ebbing. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 35.44 is expected to be seen this week. On a weekly closing basis, the downside target is 34.95 as that was the low weekly close the 2nd week of January and from which an $8 rally occurred. On an intraweek basis and using the weekly chart, support is found at 33.65 and at 33.03, neither of which should be broken without some new negative news being released. The first key for the week will be whether the most recent low at 34.90 is broken at the beginning of the week or not. The stock should find buying interest at the low seen the 2nd week of January at 35.10. If that level is seen but the 34.90 level is not broken, the bulls will see it as a bear failure and will step up to buy. On the other side of the coin, if the low seen the last week at 34.90 is broken, then a drop below 34.00 will likely occur. There is quite a bit of history of support between 33.03 and 35.10 as that area has been decent support on 6 different occasions this year. With no change in the fundamental picture, it does suggest that a low to this correction will be found either this week or the next and that it will be somewhere between those 2 levels. For this coming week, the 35.10 level is the pivot point. A break of that level is likely to generate a drop down to 34.00. If not broken, a recovery is likely to start. AXP generated an inside week in which no direction decision was made. Nonetheless and with the help of the index market, the stock did generate a green weekly close and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 103.31 will be seen this week. The stock remains in an area between 102.95 and 103.32 where resistance has been seen 4 different times since March and that other than the all-time high made July at 104.24 has not been broken. As such and like with the indexes, a new all-time high is likely going to require some positive fundamental news. Minor support is found at 101.58 and short-term pivotal at 100.84. With the stock at resistance, probabilities slightly favor the bears. CALM has rallied 13.5% in the past 3 weeks and finds itself near a decent intraweek resistance at 50.40/50.45 that stopped the rally twice before over the past 9 months. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 50.25 is expected to be seen this week. The 27-month high is at 52.30 and like with the index market, it is likely the bulls will need some new fundamental positive to break this level of resistance. The stock did get into the gap between 49.85 and 50.85 that was generated in June off of a negative earnings report with the 50.25 high this past week. As such, it is evident that the objective of the bulls is to close the gap as leaving it open at this time would be a strong bearish sign. Minor support is found between 49.30 and 49.36 and then nothing until the 45.70-46.25 level is reached, which is also where the 200-day MA is located. The probability continue to favor the bears given the negative earnings report from June and the lack of support levels built on the way up. CCJ made a new 4-month intraweek and weekly closing low on Friday and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 10.21 is expected to be seen. The minor to decent intraweek support at 10.31 was broken, which in turn has put the bulls in a precarious situation which requires a positive reversal week this week or the mid-term bull-run may end. On a weekly closing basis, the breakout level that generated the run up to 12.16 is at 10.37, meaning that last week's close at 10.36 is going to be indicative this week based on a red or green weekly close next Friday. Evidently a green weekly close would suggest the breakout level was tested successfully and new buying would likely be seen. A red weekly close would suggest further exploration of support below is to come. The stock has now tested twice the 200-week MA, currently at 11.74, meaning that if the bulls can turn the stock around this week, a 3rd retest will occur and likely be successful. By the same token, a failure here would suggest the mid to lower 9's would be visited again. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CLF made a new 4-week low and closed below a minor weekly close level of support at 9.93. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to rally the stock to close just very slightly below the midpoint of the week's trading range as well as slightly below the minor support level, meaning that there is a decent possibility (perhaps 45-55) the stock will turn around this week and resume the uptrend. The 10.00 level has become short-term pivotal resistance both from the high made on Thursday at 9.98 as well as from the 200 10-minute MA that is currently at 9.93. If the bulls are able to break those levels on Monday, the traders are likely to get back on the buy side. By the same token, a new low below last week's low at 9.42 would suggest further downside with the 8.68 level as the objective. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. ENG generated an uneventful inside week and a close at the same level as the previous week, suggesting the negatives of the earnings reports are now factored into the price. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.00 will be seen this week. If that occurs but the bears fail to break the recent low at .90, it will be seen as a successful retest of the low and some new buying interest is likely to be seen. The daily close support at 1.11 that got broken the previous week was tested successful on Tuesday with a close at 1.12, meaning that the bears remain with the edge. By the same token, any daily close above 1.12 would now be a sign that the buying interest has returned. Evidently, a new low below .90 would be a bear sign. Probabilities favor backing and filling at this time without any clear direction. FSLR generated a red week and a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 49.97 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the bears were unable to break the 200-week MA, currently at 50.90, having rallied the stock to close at 51.00 on Friday, suggesting that the long-term uptrend remains in place. The stock seems to be in the process of building an inverted Head & Shoulders with the left shoulder at 50.23, the head at 48.00 and the right shoulder presently being built and probably at 49.97. The neckline would be at 55.35 that if broken would offer an objective of 62.70. It is evident this coming week is important as further downside would begin to erode the formation and a close below the 200-week MA next Friday would be a negative sign of consequence. On the other side of the coin, if the $50 demilitarized zone holds up (49.70 not get broken) and a green weekly close be seen next Friday, it would suggest the stock is ready to generate a recovery rally. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. IBM generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week low but then turning around to close in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 146.39 will be seen this week. By the same token, the bulls did not accomplish anything of note given that the stock has shown lower highs each week for the past 4 weeks, suggesting the recent short-term downtrend remains intact. Minor but likely short-term indicative resistance is found at 147.52 that if broken would suggest the 9-week high at 150.54 would be tested and perhaps broken. As such, consideration can be given to lowering the stop loss to 147.62. Support remains minor to decent between 139.13 and 140.00. The stock did gap up on Thursday between 144.00 and 144.37, which is a magnet given that there was no news to support the gap. Like with several of the other shorted stocks, the stock will likely depend on what the indexes do and with the probabilities favoring the bears in that regard, it is likely that after a rally up to around the 147.50 level that the stock will turn down thereafter. MSFT generated a red weekly close, the first in the past 7 weeks, and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at at 106.69 will be seen this week. With the indexes having generated a rally and a green weekly close, the fact the stock did not is of note given that it has been on a strong uptrend and making new all-time highs consistently. Minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance is found at 109.75. Short-term pivotal support is found at 104.76 that if broken would suggest a drop down to 102.76 would occur. Chart suggests further downside will be seen this week but a break of the support at 104.76 is likely to be dependent on whether the indexes turn down or not. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week. TWNK bears were unable to generate follow through to the downside and an inside week occurred but with a green weekly close and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 12.53 will be seen this week. An intraweek rally up to a high of 13.00 could be seen but there is quite a bit of daily and weekly close resistance between 12.58 and 12.70 that at this time is unlikely to be broken. With such a negative earnings report as came out 2 weeks ago, liquidation of the positions should be considered on rallies up to 12.70 and 13.00. At this time, it is unlikely that the stock will trend in any direction, suggesting that a trading range between $11 and $13 is what is in store for the stock until the next earnings report.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.02. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.57 (new price (5.74). 3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.2425 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.01. Stock closed on Friday at 9.86. 4) TWNK - Averaged long at 13.50 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.42. 5) CALM - Shorted at 49.55. Stop loss at 52.40. Stock closed on Friday at 49.60. 6) FSLR - Purchased at 61.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 51.00. 7) CCJ - Purchased at 10.58. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.36. 8) IBM - Shorted at 147.33. Stop loss at 147.62. Stock closed on Friday at 146.06. 9) MSFT - Averaged short at 108.935. Stop loss at 111.35. Stock closed on Friday at 107.58 10) TXN - Liquidated at 107.22. Profit of $898 per 100 shares minus commissions. 11) AXP - Averaged short at 102.93 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 114.35. Stock closed on Friday at 103.03. 12) ARNA - Purchased at 37.47. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 35.74. 13) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .098 (new price 1.18). 14) CLF - Purchased at 5.96. Liquidated at 9.67. Profit on the trade of $371 per 100 shares minus commissions. 15) CLF - Purchased at 8.58. Liquidated at 9.67. Profit on the trade of $109 per 100 shares minus commissions. clf 596 967
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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