Issue #582
Sep 02, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Tech Sector once again Leading the Bull Run!

DOW Friday closing price - 25964
SPX Friday closing price - 2901
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 8109

The indexes extended their gains with the SPX and NASDAQ confirming the new all-time highs made last week with further upside and the DOW getting closer to its all-time high at 26616 with a high last week at 26167. The NASDAQ and the Tech Sector lead the way, suggesting that the rally is valid and will continue.

The NASDAQ closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8133 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the SPX closed in the middle of the week's trading range and the DOW in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that the results this coming week will be mixed with the hot Tech Sector continuing the rally but the rest of the market either pausing or backing and filling.

This coming week may be ruled more by fundamentals than technicals given that the ISM Index and Jobs reports come out on Wednesday and Friday. No reports of consequence have come out the past 3 weeks and therefore the bulls were able to keep the upside momentum going. Nonetheless, both of these reports can be catalytic if out of line. The ISM Index is due to come out at 58.7 and anything near there will be a non-event. A figure above 60.2 or below 57.2 would likely generate movement. The unemployment rate is due to come out at 3.9%. A figure below 3.8% or above 4.1% would likely be generate movement. The reality is that it is probable that the reaction to being above or below the expectations could both be negative as a slow-down would be negative but heating up would likely bring about further interest rate hikes immediately.

It is evident that these 2 reports will likely rule the action this week, or at least where the indexes close next Friday. Nonetheless, with no reports of consequence until Wednesday, the probabilities favor the bulls continuing to be in control at the beginning of the week.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 26167, again at 26338 and strong resistance will be found at the all-time high at 26616. The SPX shows minor resistance at the week's high at 2916 and the NASDAQ show no resistance above.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor support at 25608 and then nothing until minor support is found at 25326 and minor to perhaps decent and likely pivotal at 25162. The SPX now shows very minor support at 2854, minor at 2819 and decent as well as pivotal between 2794 and 2802. The NASDAQ does not show any support until minor at 7776, minor to decent at 7732, minor at 7696 and the decent as well as pivotal at 7604.

The bulls have been successful in rallying the SPX and NASDAQ sufficiently above the previous highs (2873 in the SPX and 7933 in the NAZ) that some pullback could be seen this week without generating any new selling interest. Certainly the gaps in DOW and the SPX will continue to work as magnets and ultimately and probably sooner than later, those gaps will be closed given the lack of a fundamental change to support the gaps not getting closed. In the DOW, the gap is at 25826 and in the SPX at 2876. Both of these gaps could be closed without any major threat of a failure signal being given. The NASDAQ gap does not have the same magnetism given the strength seen in the Tech Sector that is now showing signs of being in a runaway mode that could end up with a major top being formed when no further buying is seen (as in the year 2000). Nonetheless, at this time there is no sign that a top is near or close in time.

Evidently, the NASDAQ is the key index at this time. The index is now showing the same type of action seen at the end of 1999 and the beginning of the year 2000 when the Dot.com era took the index up 49% in value in the last 6 months of its bull run and a major top was found. The index has moved straight up the past 4 months but the gains so far have only been 13% above the most recent pullback, meaning that much more could be seen (both in price and in time) before a top is found.

This week will likely be all about the economic reports but given that the probabilities do not favor those reports being way out of line, it is likely and expected that further upside will be seen, at least in the NASDAQ and the stocks associated with the index.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I don't expect much this week. The NAZ and Tech stocks are likely to go higher but being overbought, buying those stocks is not an option. The rest of the market is likely to idle most of the week without any clear direction, meaning that this is not likely to be a good week for instituting new positions. As such, I have no new mentions in this newsletter but I do expect to have some new mentions next week after the economic reports that come out this week. I have also decided to spend some extra time next weekend and look at more stocks than the normal 60-80 stocks that I look at each week, meaning that I might find a few stocks that are ready for a move of consequence.

I do have 2 stocks that I might add new positions to this week, in CCJ and FSLR. These are not new mentions but simply additions to the positions presently held.

CCJ Friday Closing Price 10.41

See update below in stock updates for details.

Purchases of CCJ between 10.21 and 10.31 and using a stop loss at 9.90 and having an upside objective of at least 11.67 (but likely a lot more), will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

FSLR Friday Closing Price 52.08

See update below in stock updates for details.

Purchases of FSLR around the 51.42 level and using a stop loss at 49.65 and having a 62.57 objective will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2018, as of 8/1

Profit of $6315 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for August per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

TXN (short) $884

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

CLB (long) $9

Total Profit for August, per 100 shares and after commissions $893

Closed out losing trades for August per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

CLF (short) $23

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

SN (long) $319
CALM (short) $99
TWNK (long) $505

Total Loss for August, per 100 shares, including commissions $946

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 9/1

ARNA (long) $137
IBM (short) $85
TXN (short) $312
MT (short) $111

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

ARNA (long) $10

Total $655

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 9/1

AXP (short) $610
MSFT (short) $679

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

CCJ (long) $39
CLF (long) $444
ENG (long) $80
FSLR (long) $27
FCEL (long) $52

Total $1931

Status of trades for month of August per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

Loss of $1329

Status of account/portfolio for 2018, as of 8/31

Profit of $4986 using 100 shares traded per mention.



Updates on Held Stocks

ARNA extended its recovery having rallied 5.3% this past week. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 39.02 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, all the bulls have been able to accomplish is a rally back up to the 200-day MA, currently at 39.15, meaning that some technical selling interest will be found this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 39.35 and again at 39.99. Above that level, there is no resistance until decent resistance is found at 41.92. Short-term pivotal support is now found at 36.73/36.80 that if broken would give the bears new ammunition. Due to the 200-day MA and the uncertainty seen in the indexes (not the NAZ), this is likely to be a pivotal week for the stock. Key levels that will decide the week are 39.99 and 36.73. Whichever one is broken will bring about follow through in that direction. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

AXP extended and confirmed the previous week's new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high, having made another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high this past week. Nonetheless and not being a Tech stock, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 105.30 will be seen. It is probable that like with the SPX, the stock will be testing its previous all-time high daily and weekly close at 103.85. There is no intraweek support below until 100.84 is reached so on an intraweek basis the stock could go below 103.84. Nonetheless, the fact remains that the stock is into a new all-time high and even though a bit of weakness could be seen this week, the probabilities still favor the bulls. As such, consideration should be given to covering the shorts around the previous all-time high daily and weekly close. Resistance is found at the now all-time intraweek high at 107.43. Evidently, a break above that level would suggest further upside will be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but only for a retest of the previous high.

CCJ did generate a green weekly close and a rally above the previous week's high, suggesting that the worst of the correction may be over. Nonetheless, the stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 10.30 is expected to be seen this week. If that occurs but the recent low at 10.13 is not broken, if the stock then goes above whatever high is made this week the following week, a successful retest of that low will have occurred and the bulls will likely get back on board. The 200-day MA is currently at 10.20 and there is intraweek support at 10.21, suggesting that is the objective for this week. Purchases can be considered using a 9.90 stop loss. Resistance is found at last week's high at 10.69 that if broken would generate a buy signal on the intraweek chart. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but only for a retest of the lows on an intraweek basis. Stock should close green next Friday.

CLF generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and above the previous week's high and then closing in the green, generating a successful retest of the recent low at 9.42 on the daily chart and suggesting that a successful retest of the recent low will have also occurred on the weekly chart if the bulls can take the stock above last week's high at 10.42 this week. It should also be mentioned that the stock dropped 7.8% on Thursday and down to 9.53, having broken the support at 9.59 and coming within 11 points of the low and no follow through to that drop was seen on Friday. It does suggest the drop was all technical in nature and given that the bulls were able to prevent a new sell signal from being given does suggest the bulls may now be back in control. Intraweek support is now found at 9.53 and at 9.42 and resistance is at 10.42, at 10.90, at 11.14 and at 11.44. A break of the resistance at 10.42 will likely be a sign that the uptrend is resuming. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

ENG bulls may have accomplished all they needed to accomplish this past week, given that the stock went below the previous week's low and ended up generating a new 4-week weekly closing high and closing in the upper half of the week's closing range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.08 will be seen this week. If the bulls can take the stock above last week's high, a successful retest of the .90 low seen after the earnings report will have occurred, suggesting no further downside will be seen. One additional positive occurred this past week, given that the drop down to.98, followed by 3 positive days in a row, means that the 200-day MA, currently at .97, has been tested positively. As such, the traders are now likely to start exploring the upside. Daily and weekly close resistance is found at 1.11/1.12 that if broken would generate a failure signal against the bears. An intraweek rally above 1.12 would also suggest the gap seen right after the earnings report between 1.24 and 1.20 will be tested and if closed would give the edge back to the bulls. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

FSLR generated an uneventful inside week but did close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 51.65 will be seen this week. The stock has now spent 12 weeks trading in a narrow trading range between 48.00 and 55.75 and is either building a strong base from which to generate a decent rally or has been building a strong inverted flag formation from which to generate a strong move down. The former is the most probable given that the bears have not been able to break the 200-week MA, currently at 50.75, though having the edge during all this time. I did give a buy mention last week if the stock were to drop down to the $50 level and that buy mention remains for this week. By the same token, the probabilities of the stock dropping all the way down to the $50 level have diminished, meaning that consideration can be given to buying around the $51 level now. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls for a green close at the end of the week, though some weakness is likely to be seen at the beginning of the week.

IBM generated a new 4-week high this past week but then closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 145.25 than above last week's high at 147.93. If that does occur, last week's high will become the needed/required retest of the recent high at 150.54 and that should give the bears new ammunition to test the supports below at 142.00 or even down to the ones at 140.00. The chart continues to suggest the stock is in a $140-$148 trading range that it has been for the past 4+ months with the exception of a rally to 150.54 and a drop down to 137.45. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

MSFT generated a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and did close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 112.78 will be seen this week. The stock, being part of the Tech runaway rally in the NASDAQ, could go substantially higher and consideration should be given to cutting losses. The stop loss at 111.35 was triggered last week and the stock is only $1 higher, meaning the loss is still manageable. With no clear outlook for any weakness to be seen this week unless the economic reports at the end of the week disappoint (unlikely), the best course of action is likely to cut losses and run. There is a decent possibility that the breakout at 111.15 may be tested but the charts do not give any suggestion yet that it may or will happen. Probabilities favor the bulls.

MT generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing in the red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 29.80 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and with the indexes either going higher or backing and filling in a trading range, the probabilities only slightly favor the bears for a drop down to the next level of support at 28.91 or perhaps even down to 28.24. Overall though, the bears remain with the edge and there is more of a probability of the stock heading lower toward the mention's objective at 24.95 than higher toward the decent resistance at 32.93. Last week's high at 31.36 is short-term pivotal resistance, meaning that a cautionary stop loss can be lowered to 31.46 if desired. Probabilities favor the bears this week for a drop down to at least the 29.30 level.

TXN generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 111.86 will be seen this week. If that occurs (likely), the stock will show 4 successful retests of the all-time high at 120.75, with every retest showing lower highs than the previous one. Minor to perhaps decent support is found at 110.00 and then nothing until pivotal support between 107.00 and 107.45 that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 107.95. The probabilities do favor the bears this week but only for a drop down to the $110 level. Pivotal resistance is found at 116.07, meaning that the stop loss can now be lowered to 116.35.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.01.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.70 (new price (36.97).

3) CLF - Averaged long at 7.92 (6 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.01. Stock closed on Friday at 9.88.

4) TWNK - Liquidated at 12.40. Averaged long at 13.50. Loss on the trade of $220 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.

5) CALM - Covered shorts at 50.60. Shorted at 49.55. Loss on the trade of $105 per 100 shares plus commissions.

6) FSLR - Purchased at 61.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 52.08.

7) CCJ - Purchased at 10.58. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.30.

8) IBM - Shorted at 147.33. Stop loss at 147.62. Stock closed on Friday at 146.04.

9) MSFT - Averaged short at 108.935 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 111.35. Stock closed on Friday at 108.40

10) AXP - Averaged short at 102.93 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 105.76.

11) ARNA - Purchased at 37.47. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 36.80.

12) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .096 (new price 1.15).

13) CLF - Shorted at 9.67. Covered shorts at 9.65. Profit on the trade of $4 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. clf 596 967


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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