Issue #594 ![]() Dec 2, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bull Now With the Edge! Xmas Rally Ahead!
DOW Friday closing price - 2538
The indexes generated an equal but opposite move to the previous weeks down draft, suggesting that for now (December) the lows for the year and for the recent move down are set. The indexes all closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 25549, SPX at 2760 and NASDAQ at 7332) will be seen next week. There was no catalytic news that created the turn around, suggesting that the bad news has already been factored into the current price and that the traders are expecting the dependable seasonal Xmas rally to occur.
One thing that might have been in the traders mind this week was the dinner meeting between Xi and Trump that happened yesterday (Saturday). Nonetheless, an agreement was made in which no further increase in Tariffs will be made and that suggests that the indexes will open higher on Monday. Evidently, the Trade War has been one of the main factors in the weakness of late and any possibility of that War waning is likely to generate some speculative buying. By the same token, the agreement that was made does not reverse the Tariffs that have already been instituted and does not solve the problems that have already occurred, suggesting that any rally seen at this time is likely to be limited in nature.
Some recovery will likely be seen this week and perhaps for the entire month. In addition, Bloomberg News gathered 14 forecasts from the firms they track and the average outlook for 2019 is for an 11% increase in value of the SPX, with a possible end of the year (2019) objective of 3056. While the steepness of the trajectory partly reflects the damage done to stocks since September, it's the most optimistic call since the bull market began in 2009. As such, it seems that now that a bottom to this recent correction has been seen, the question will be whether the recovery is limited and still below the previous all-time highs of the beginning of a new leg up in the uptrend is coming.
As far as what is in store this week, the ISM Index report comes out on Monday, Factory Orders on Thursday and Jobs Report on Friday. It is unlikely that there will be any big surprises in the reports so the momentum of the market should keep an upward bias. For the month, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates at the December 19th meeting and though it is anticipated they will, it is not a positive that will give the bulls ammunition. As such, the indexes are likely to accomplish much of what they are to accomplish this month over the next week or two before most go on an end-of-the-year hiatus.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor to decent resistance at 25800/25817, very minor at 26167 and decent as well as pivotal at 26277. The SPX now shows minor resistance at 2789/2791 and minor to decent at 2801. Above that level, there is decent and pivotal resistance at 2816/2815 that is a double high and therefore indicative. The NASDAQ shows minor resistance at 7438 and again at 7466 and decent at 7505. Above that level, there is pivotal resistance at 7572.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 25152 and minor to perhaps decent at the 25,000 demilitarized zone. Further and minor support is found at 24659 that would close the open gap at 24750. The SPX minor support at 2710 and minor to perhaps decent between 2691 and 2700. The NASDAQ shows minor support 7279 and then minor to perhaps decent between 7084 and 7099.
In looking at the charts of the indexes, resistance levels above are much stronger than the support levels below. In addition, the DOW is showing an open gap between 24750 and 24832 that should be closed at some point unless the positive reaction from the agreement between Xi and Trump generates a gap opening tomorrow. The index over the past 5 years (2013-2017) has had trading ranges between 775 points (2015) and 1040 points (2014) and given that it is likely that the index will get up to the 25800 level this month, it does not strongly suggest that the index will close the gap in December.
Evidently, the big question mark for December is whether the Trade War will continue as is (or ebb) and then from a chart view, whether the resistance levels of consequence above (DOW at 25817, SPX at 2816 and NAZ at 7572) are broken. If the resistance levels are not broken and there is no change in the Trade War, the probabilities favor a calm trading month with no support or resistance levels broken. If that is the case, then the close at the end of the month will be meaningful. It must be remembered that the indexes have a seasonal tendency to correct sometime in the first quarter of the year, so the probabilities still favor another drop coming sometime in the next few months.
For this week, the probabilities strongly favor the bulls, especially since the Trade War is on a pause.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no new mentions this week. December has proven to be a calm month with small trading ranges, meaning that profits are difficult to be made in either direction. In addition, there is a seasonal tendency to correct in the first quarter of the year and therefore purchases now are not likely to have long term possibilities and shorts are not likely to be at desired entry points now.
In addition, the agreement between Xi and Trump for a cease of increases in Tariffs needs to be evaluated as to how much that will help the bull outlook or not. If that gets cleared up and there are opportunities for a trade, I will make those mentions in the message board. For now, it is best to look and not do any new trades.
By the same token, several of the held stocks are near pivotal levels that could be broken. If that occurs, I will look to add positions but at this time and until the break occurs, it is better to wait. Stocks that are in this category are CCJ, CLF, CLB, and SLCA. I will give those mentions in the message board when it is right to do so.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018, as of 11/1 Profit of $5004 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for November per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
CLB (long) $323 WMT (long) $47 AAPL (short) $720
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for November, per 100 shares and after commissions $1090 Closed out losing trades for November per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
MT (long) $105
CLB (long) $183 AAPL (long) $71 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. NONE Total Loss for October, per 100 shares, including commissions $359 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 11/30
LVS (long) $342
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
ARNA (long) $214
CCJ (long) $348 FSLR (long) $795 CRON (long) $692 ENG (long) $6 SLCA (long) $76 Total $2865 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 11/30
SCCO (long) $348
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
CLB (long) $426 Total $1225 Status of trades for month of November per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Profit of $2371
Status of account/portfolio for 2018, as of 11/30Profit of $7375 using 100 shares traded per mention.
AAPL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-month low and then closing in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 182.80 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock left a gap open between 174.77 and 174.93 that is not based on news and therefore likely to be closed this coming week. The stock remains fundamentally bearish as it closed on Friday 23.5% below its all-time high and until it generates a weekly close above 186.77, the bear tag will remain. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 183.50 that if broken would give the bulls some new ammunition, meaning the stop loss remains at 183.60. Very minor support is found at 174.27 and minor at 172.45. Should either of those two levels be seen this week, consideration can be given to taking profits on the short positions. Probabilities favor the bulls this week for a rally above last week's high but the 183.50 should be an important pivot point resistance.
ARNA has now had 2 inside weeks in a row, suggesting the stock is looking for direction from the index market. The stock did close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 41.44 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls need to get above the high at 42.93 that was made 3 weeks ago in order to see higher prices, with either a 44.50 or more like a 45.85 objective. By the same token, if the bulls fail to take out the 42.93 level this week, a drop down to the 36.80 will likely occur within the next couple of weeks. One other key is the 200-day MA (currently at 40.90) that the bulls have failed to break convincingly during the last 8 days. If the bulls are unable to break that level on Monday, given that the agreement between Xi and Trump should give some new bull ammunition to the indexes, then new selling is likely to be seen. Probabilities though, favor the bulls this week. CCJ generated another close near the 22-month high weekly close made 10 weeks ago at 12.08. For the past 4 weeks, the stock has generated weekly closes at 11.97, at 11.92, at 11.66 and last week at 11.88 and has managed to stay above the 200-week MA for that period of time, suggesting the traders are waiting for some catalyst to give them the final push up. Now that the indexes seem to have a slight bias to the upside, the bulls should be able to generate a breakout this week. Intraweek resistance will be found at the 22-month high at 12.78 and then at the 31-month high at 13.36. On a weekly closing basis, any convincing close above 13.34 will open the door for rallies up to as high as the $20 level. The 12.98-13.34 weekly closing level represents a major low seen in November 2008 and two successful retests of that level seen in March 2016 and again in January 2017. A weekly close above that area will mean that the 11-year long-term downtrend is over and that would suggest a strong short-covering rally should occur. Intraweek support is now found at 11.25 that if broken would delay the upside. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week. CLB generated an inside week but a green close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 83.67 will be seen this week. More importantly, the bears failed to generate any follow through to the downside off of the negative reversal week seen the previous week, suggesting that the selling interest is waning at these low price levels. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 86.72 and then stronger and likely pivotal at 88.04. Above that level, there is further resistance at 88.96. Long term chart suggests a short-term objective (December) of the $90 level. Support is now pivotal at 78.44. Probabilities favor the bulls. CLF generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-month low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.49 will be seen this week. The positive reversal means that the previous week's close at 8.78 is now a successful retest of the original breakout level at 8.68 from which the stock in July and that took it to the 13.10 high. As such, it is possible the stock is now ready to resume the uptrend. Nonetheless, upside objective for this month is not likely to be higher than the $10 level. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 8.43. There is no other close by support on the daily chart, meaning that the stock could still see volatility this month and some red. On the intraday chart support is found at 9.06 and at 8.67. Probabilities now favor the bulls but backing and filling is likely to be seen. CRON once again generated a green weekly close (the 5th in a row), suggesting that the selling interest that was seen in October has ended. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 9.22 is expected to be seen. Minor resistance is found at 9.59 and then decent at the $10 demilitarized zone with 10.39 being a resistance that is unlikely to be broken in December. Pivotal support is now found at 7.52. The stock has now stayed above the 200-day MA, currently at 7.94, for the past 19 trading days, strongly suggesting that the bulls now have the edge. The stock has traded during the past 4 weeks in a $1.50 trading range, meaning that for December it is likely the stock will trade in the same manner and between 8.50-8.70 and 10.00-10.30. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG continues to trade with no direction. This was the 6th week in a row that the stock has traded in a narrow $.15 cent trading range between .80 and .95. Support is decent and pivotal at .80. Resistance is decent and pivotal .95. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but this is a stock that at these prices is not likely to go lower. FSLR made a new 6-week weekly closing high but closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher possibility of going above last week's high at 46.09 than below last week's low at 43.04. Resistance is found at 46.09, meaning that if the stock does go below last week's low that a double high will be in place. Nonetheless, if the stock goes above last week's high, there is no resistance until 48.00 is reached. Intraweek support is found at 41.49 that if broken would suggest further downside to at least the $40 would occur. Nonetheless, the bulls have had the edge recently and with the probability that the indexes will go higher this week, the probabilities favor the stock doing the same. Upside objective has been the $50 level before any drop back occurs and given that the resistance at 48.00 is minor, it is likely that before the end of the year that the $50 level will be seen. MCIG generated an inside week but did close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .20 will be seen this week. The stock has been down to the .20 cent 3 weeks in a row, meaning that the probabilities are high that level will be broken. There is support at .1925, which is the likely downside objective before some new buying interest is seen. Upside objective for the short term is .245. As such, probabilities favor the stock trading within that $.05 trading range for the month of December. LVS bears failed to follow through to the downside after the previous week's new 28-month low and close near the lows of the week, to rally above the previous week's high and close in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 55.37 will be seen this week. The reason for the turn-around was a report that gambling was up in Macao (rather than down as anticipated).There is no resistance above until the 57.89/58.09 level is reached. That level is pivotal given that the 200-week MA is currently at 57.68 and above that level there is no resistance until the $60 level is reached and the resistance there is minor. Support is found at 50.82, at 49.28 and pivotal at 48.64. The bulls need to keep the momentum to the upside going at least until the resistance above is reached given that there is no established support nearby below. Probabilities favor the bulls. SCCO generated an inside week but with a green weekly close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 34.29 will be seen this week. The bears failed to follow through off of the previous week's 2-year low and close near the lows of the week, suggesting that the down move was overdone. The objective of this mini rally is likely to be to retest the 200-week MA, currently at 35.25, which was the break that took the stock all the way down to 31.19 and the negation of all the rally seen the past 2 years. Original stop loss was at 35.49 and for now, the plan is to liquidate the stock on any rally above 35.00. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but the chart has changed and new and positive fundamental news needs to come out to negate the negatives that have occurred over the past 3 weeks. SLCA generated a negative week and a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.54 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock generated a weekly close at 14.19 and the previous low weekly close was at 14.21, meaning that if a green weekly close occurs next Friday, that a double bottom on the weekly chart will occur, exactly like the double bottom that is presently in place on the intraweek chart at 12.89/12.97. If this scenario occurs, it will be a "double whammy" with double bottoms on both the intraweek and weekly closing chart. Such a scenario would suggest a strong short-covering rally could occur with 22.61 as the upside objective. Probabilities favor the bulls even though there might be some intraweek weakness seen early in the week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 15.61 and pivotal support is found at 12.89.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .865. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.10 (new price (41.01). 3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.28. 4) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.51. (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 44.45. 5) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.457 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.88. 6) AAPL - Shorted at 182.80. Stop loss at 183.60. Stock closed on Friday at 178.58. 7) CLB - Averaged long at 84.38 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 83.11. 8) CRON - Averaged long at 9.577 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.15. 9) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .058 (new price .705). 10) SLCA - Averaged long at 17.667 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.19. 11) MCIG - Purchased at .26. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .207. 12) LVS - Purchased at 51.52. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 54.94. 13) SCCO - Purchased at 36.96. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.48. 14) AAPL - Covered shorts at 173.56. Shorted at 180.90. Profit on the trade of $734 per 100 shares minus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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