Issue #587 ![]() Oct 14, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bears Accomplish Stopping the Rally!
DOW Friday closing price - 25339
The indexes fell strongly this past week (between 3.8% and 4.6% based on weekly closes) and some blame fell on the Trade War given that Ford announced on September 26th that they were cutting jobs due to the $1 billion dollars they have lost since the Trade War began. The announcement was not a trigger for the market falling since it was made over 2 weeks ago but it likely was one of the factors (as well as the Fed announcement of continuing interest rate hikes next year) that finally caused the traders to take profits. By the same token and from a chart basis, the failure signal given by the DOW, the double top built in the SPX chart and the successful retest of the all-time high in the NASDAQ were all clear signs that further upside at this time was not likely to occur and therefore traders decided it was time to take profits.
The indexes broke "all" supports built over the past 4 months (both intraweek and on a closing basis) and closed in the lower half of the week's trading ranges, suggesting there may be more to come next week. By the same token, the earnings quarter began on Friday and during the past 9 years since the low of 2009 was made, the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter have generally benefitted the bulls, especially since Trump took office and the economy has seen strong improvement and growth. As such, the fall was stopped on Friday as the indexes reached levels where decent chart support has been built in the past year (DOW at 25000, SPX at 2700) as they await the earnings reports that will come out the next 3 weeks. The earnings reports will be the catalyst as to whether the indexes start a recovery phase or continue lower. They are generally expected to be better than expected as they have been all year, but if there are any negative surprises, the market will continue lower.
This coming week is not all that pivotal regarding earnings reports and the ones that have some importance are due to come out mostly on Tuesday with GS in the morning and IBM and NFLX after the close, meaning that the probabilities do not favor any decisions being made unless one of these reports is way out of line. As such, and especially after Tuesday, the rest of the week is likely to be technical in nature and may have some dependence on what happens Wednesday morning. Given that this market is now dependent on earnings and the big earnings reports, with the exception of AAPL, come out the following week, the probabilities this week favor some backing and filling more than any directional slant. Simply stated, building of support or resistance for the next decision event.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows resistance around 25500 and then stronger at 25800. The SPX shows decent resistance between 2791 and 2801 and the NASDAQ shows decent resistance at 7637.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW does not show any support of consequence until minor to perhaps decent between 24217 and 24247. Short-term pivotal support is found at 23997. On a daily and weekly closing basis though, there is minor to decent support at the 25000 demilitarized zone. The SPX shows support at 2691 and 2676 and again 2647 but all of those supports are at best minor to perhaps decent. On a closing basis, minor to decent support is found between 2677 and 2701. The NASDAQ is generally void of support until minor to perhaps decent at 7084. On a daily closing basis there is minor support at 7200 and at 7100 but on a weekly closing basis there is no support until the 6874-6915 level is reached.
It is evident that the indexes are presently in a very precarious chart situation where dependable support is not found. For now and the next 2-3 weeks they will be mostly dependent for fundamental support based on the earnings reports. It is not expected that support will fail but the Trade War is starting to uncover potential problem areas and it is unclear whether those will start showing up on this earnings report quarter or the next. As such, the action this week is likely to be 2-way with both red and green seen repeatedly, at least for the first 2 days of the week. Volatility is likely to continue high and negative news will generate more drops of consequence.
The traders will likely lean on the buy side for now, knowing that the big reports are yet to come and that sellers will not be aggressive until such a time that those reports are out and not overly above expectations.
Upside movement this week is also likely to be limited. In the DOW the 25800 level is unlikely to be broken this week, the same in the SPX at 2801 and in the NASDAQ at 7637. The 200-day MA's will be in play all week with the DOW being at 25142, the SPX being at 2765 and the NAZ at 7500. The probabilities favor the indexes straddling those lines on a closing basis all week. It is unlikely breaks above or below the line will be confirmed convincingly until the following week when many of the big reports come out.
This is a week where nimble people can make trades but not a week where hold positions can be bought. It is unlikely that either the bulls or the bears will have a decided edge this week, though if a decided edge does occur it is likely to favor the bears.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no mentions this week. It is likely that the direction for the week will have a slight upward bias but given that we are in a period where
the fundamentals (earnings reports) are likely to play a large part and not all that much this week, purchasing or shorting stocks does not offer much profit and much less acceptable probability numbers.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA followed through on the spike down action seen the previous week, having gone below the previous week's low and generating another red weekly close. Nonetheless, the follow through was very mild, especially considering what the index market did so it does give some hope to the bulls that the worse of this correction might be just about over. By the same token and using the daily chart, the outlook remains short-term bearish as the stock traded all week below the 200-day MA, currently at 40.83, and a bearish flag formation might have been formed, given that the flagpole is the drop from 48.85 to 38.75 and the flag the 5-day trading action between 38.75 and 40.85. If it is a flag and it is broken (both decent ifs), it would offer a downside objective of 30.75. Strictly from a chart point of view, the drop down to the $30 is a viable possibility as there is decent support at the 30.00 level and it will become a magnet if the support between 36.80 and 34.90 is broken. In addition, the failure to make a new high 2 weeks ago above the 50.05 high seen in June does mean that a successful retest of that high has occurred and that opens the door for a retest of the decent and clearly defined support at $30 which could be seen if the indexes continue lower or the traders decide to sell their positions. On the other side of the coin, the bulls need to get above 40.85 and close above the MA line for at least 2-days in a row to negate the flag formation and take that chart possibility away. The chart action last week with the indexes dropping strongly but the stock holding up does give the bulls a bit of an edge but overall though, the chart favors the bears at this time. I have raised my stop loss on the purchase to 38.65. AXP made a new 9-week low and got back down on an intraweek basis to the previous all-time high weekly close at 101.42 with a low this past week at 101.55. The stock did close in the bottom part of the week's trading range suggesting that further downside below last week's low will be seen this week. Nonetheless and like with the indexes, the stock rallied to close $1.45 higher, suggesting there is buying interest at this level. The company reports earnings on Thursday after the close and earnings are expected to be better than last year, suggesting that like with the indexes, a rally from this level will be dependent on the earnings report. If the stock does go below last week's low before the earnings report, decent support will be found at 100.05, which is where the 200-day MA is currently located and also where the strong psychological support is found. As such, it is highly unlikely that level of support will be broken before the earnings report comes out. Resistance is found at 107.43 and that could easily be seen this week before the earnings report given the wide trading range seen last week. Probabilities favor the bulls. CCJ generated an uneventful inside week last week but did close at the 200-week MA, currently at 11.40, which was broken for the first time in 4 years the previous week. A green close next Friday will mean the breakout will have been tested successfully and new buying interest is likely to be seen. Minor resistance is found at 11.68, at 11.98, and decent at the 21-month high seen the previous week at 12.38. Minor support is found at 11.29 and then at the gap area at 11.00. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below 11.29 is expected to be seen this week. The weekly chart does not show any support until 10.68 is reached but the gap area at 11.00 should offer support given that the gap came off of good news and should not be closed. Probabilities favor the bulls for a green close next Friday. CLF generated another red weekly close and dropped on an intraweek basis back down to the previous multi-year high weekly close at 11.49 with a low last week at 11.35. Nonetheless, the stock rallied enough to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probabilities of going above last week's high at 12.54 than below last week's low at 11.35. The stock continues to have an upside objective of $13 (based on a weekly close) and the probabilities favor that objective being reached and having tested the breakout and bounced to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, it is likely the stock will have an upward bias this week. The 11.35 low is now considered short-term pivotal support given that it made that low on Thursday and then went above Thursday's high on Friday, meaning that low is now a spike low. Very minor resistance is found at 12.46, at 12.94 and at 13.04 and decent at the recent high at 13.10. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CRON generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.08 will be seen this week. More importantly, the green weekly close made the previous weeks close at 9.77 into a possible successful retest of the previous and breakout all-time high weekly close at 9.40. I say "possible successful retest" because the close on Friday above the previous week's close was only by $.09 cents and that is not a statement close. Nonetheless and using the daily closing chart, there is now a double low 9.12/9.05 and given the importance of this area as the most recent breakout area, it does suggest there is far more buying than selling interest. There is minor but possible short-term pivotal resistance at 10.08, minor to perhaps decent resistance at 10.39 and decent as well as likely indicative resistance at 11.90. Support is now found at last week's low at 8.68 and at 8.54. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG continues to meander around the 1.00 level based on a weekly close. The stock for the past 9 weeks has closed at 1.02, at 1.01, at 1.04, at .99, at 1.03, at 1.00, at 1.02, at .99 and once again on Friday at .99. A new 8-week intraweek low was made last week at .95 that must be credited to the weakness in the index market. Nonetheless, the weekly close continues to give no clue as to direction, meaning that it is once again likely this week will be the same as seen the last 9 weeks. The stock reports earnings on November 8th and given the action seen the last 9 weeks, the probabilities favor the stock continuing to trade sideways until the earnings report comes out. Daily and weekly close resistance remains decent at 1.04 and support at .99. Probabilities favor more of the same this week. FSLR made a new 15-month intraweek and weekly closing low this past week and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 44.72 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the break of the 45.26 low that occurred last week, which is the last bastion of intraweek support before the $40 level is reached, did not bring any new selling interest, suggesting the traders remain overall bearish but do not have a strong desire to add shorts here. The company reports earnings on Thursday, October 25th, and the traders are likely to wait until that report comes out before making any new decisions. Last month earnings came out at $.46 and this time they are anticipated to come out at $.40, so a worse than expected earnings report is not likely to come out. I did read some fundamental information about FSLR today and though this year is expected to be a bad year for them, the anticipation is that the company will turn around next year and have a good year. I saw where of the 12 analysts that are following the company, 6 of them have it as a strong buy, 1 as a buy, 5 as a hold and only 1 as a sell (and not a strong sell). I have been following this company for many years and believe in them and in the Solar industry, meaning that at this price I am not going to liquidate my positions and at the first sign of recovery, I will add more. The 200-week MA, currently at 50.83, continues to be the pivotal resistance point and rallies up to the psychological resistance at $50 are likely to be seen even if on a short-term the stock shows weakness. SLCA made a new 32-month intraweek and weekly closing low but then again on an intraweek basis it was only by 1 point and on a weekly closing basis it still falls within the 2-point trend line that started 6 years ago, so the action cannot be considered indicative. In addition, the stock reacted to what oil was doing but in the end oil did not give a failure signal, having closed on Friday at 71.34, which was above the 71.28 level where a failure signal would have been given, meaning that the action last week was more about volatility in the market and in oil than indicative about the stock. Nonetheless, there is now a possibility of a double bottom having been built at 17.92/17.91 if the stock goes above Friday's high at 18.96 on Monday and given that oil is up almost $1 tonight (Sunday), that is now a high probability. What did get set up is the new pivotal resistance level at 20.82 that will generate an indicative buy signal if broken. To the downside, a break of that double bottom would be a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls. TXN generated a new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing low but has now arrived at a level of decent support at $100 that has been in place for 11 months and where on 4 different occasions the stock found support, suggesting that further downside will require either negative fundamental news or the indexes continuing lower. The stock does not report earnings until the following week, so it will somewhat depend on what the indexes do this week for its own direction. Nonetheless, having bounced from this level on past occasions, probabilities favor the same happening now. There is no resistance of consequence above until 105.90 is reached, then again at 107.43 (objective of the mention) and at 108.10. Last week's low at 98.81 is now considered pivotal support. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .99. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.99 (new price (39.88). 3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.01. 4) FSLR - Averaged long at 54.21. (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 45.53. 5) CCJ - Purchased at 11.40. Averaged long at 10.47 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 10.03. Stock closed on Friday at 11.50. 6) ARNA - Purchased at 39.73. Stop loss at 38.65. Stock closed on Friday at 39.88. 7) AXP - Purchased at 102.30. Stop loss at 99.65. Stock closed on Friday at 103.00. 8) AXP - Covered shorts at 105.50. Loss on the trade of $550 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 9) TXN - Purchased at 98.97 and at 99.68. Averaged long at 99.325 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 96.65. Stock closed on Friday at 101.09. 10) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .08 (new price .97). 11) MT - Covered shorts at 28.55. Profit on the trade of $670 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions. 12) SLCA - Purchased at 19.02 and at 18.02. Averaged long at 18.34 (3 mentions). Stop loss at 16.95. Stock closed on Friday at 18.38. 13) TXN - Covered shorts at 101.33. Shorted at 108.85. Profit on the trade of $752 per 100 shares minus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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