Issue #586 ![]() Oct 7, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bears Accomplish Stopping the Rally!
DOW Friday closing price - 26447
This past week was all about the leadership of the market, given that the RUT fell 3.8%, the NASDAQ fell 3.3%, the SPX fell .6% and the DOW fell .05% from the closes the previous week. This discrepancy does suggest that the traders are looking at what could be a "fundamental" top to the market given that the NAZ seems to be giving up the leadership that it has had since 2008 and the RUT, which has led the market since February, seems to have now fizzled out, having given a sell signal of some consequence on Friday that suggests the small cap rally is now over. The small cap stocks (the RUT) are usually the ones that lead the final leg of a bull market and the action last week suggests that rally might be finished.
Nonetheless, the action last week cannot yet be considered "a bear statement" given that the earnings quarter starts on Friday and for several years the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter have belonged to the bulls. By the same token, the NASDAQ and the RUT have now fallen substantially below their recent all-time highs, making it very difficult for the bulls to negate the losses totally and turn things around and make new highs even if the earnings reports come in better than expected, as expected.
The NASDAQ did generate a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's low and near the lows of the week, suggesting further intraweek downside below last week's low at 7715 will be seen this week. A small sell signal was given when the index closed below the most recent low weekly close at 7902 but given that the 7902 low was not a spike low or an important and established support, the sell signal must be classified as a short-term one. The index did get intraweek below a more important weekly close support at 7737 but the bulls were able to prevent that sell signal from occurring, suggesting the traders still believe that the index has at least 1 more rally to the upside over the next 3 weeks (with the big 5 earnings reports coming out). Nonetheless, the probabilities now strongly favor the likely rally-to-come to fail making a new high, meaning that the index is more likely to head lower going into the end of the year than not.
The SPX also came close to closing below the previous all-time high weekly close at 2872, having traded as low as 2869 on Friday before rallying to close at 2885. The index will be the first to get its earnings reports with C, JPM, and WFC reporting on Friday and BAC, MS, and GS the beginning of the week after and as such will be the first to show fundamentally what may be to come. By the same token, financial stocks have not generally been catalytic and therefore unlikely that the SPX will lead the market, meaning the traders are likely to wait for the Big 5 Reports, which do not come out until the 3rd week and last week of the month.
Expectations remains high for earnings to continue to be better than expected but this could be the "Achilles Heel" of the market given that anything less than perfect will likely be seen as a negative. With many PE ratios already at record highs, expectations of "better than expected" may be fallacious.
Nonetheless and for the shorter term, the bulls were able to prevent the bears from getting a decided advantage on Friday, suggesting that some type of recovery is likely to be seen this week. All indexes closed near the lows of the week and further downside below those lows (DOW at 26301, SPX at 2869 and NAZ at 7715) are likely to be seen this week. The SPX is the index with the closest pivotal intraweek support level to watch at 2864. If that level of support is broken, the bulls will have to try to pull "a rabbit out of a hat" to turn it around. The NASDAQ does have some "general" support around the 7700 level (give or take 30 points) and the DOW will find psychological support at 26000 if the bears can push the index down that far. By the same token and knowing that the earnings reports are what the traders will be looking for, any move below last week's lows is likely to be more "show than not", meaning weakness this coming week is likely to be limited and un-indicative.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW will show minor to decent resistance at the previous all-time high at 26616. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 26769 and decent at the all-time high at 26951. The SPX will show minor to decent resistance at 2916 and decent to strong at the double top at 2940/2939. The NASDAQ will show minor to decent resistance at 7933 and then nothing until decent resistance at last week's high at 8107. Strong resistance is now found at the all-time high at 8133.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 26030 and pivotal support at 25754. The SPX shows at 2864 and then nothing until 2800. The NASDAQ shows pivotal support at 7604.
Powerful topping out signs were generated this past week with the SPX now having a double top at 2940/2939, the NASDAQ showing a negative reversal week that will also serve as a successful retest of the all-time high at 8133 (with last week's high at 8107) and the DOW having confirmed the failure signal of the 26616 previous all-time high with a second weekly close in a row below that level.
As such, the bulls will now require earnings to come out better than expected just to have hope of regenerating the uptrend. The technical picture now favors the bears for the midterm even though on the short-term, the probabilities favor the indexes rallying back up toward the highs over the next 2-4 weeks.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I do expect some weakness in the indexes this week but a turn around by the end of the week. By the same token, I do believe there is a decent probability that the highs of the recent rally have been made and therefore rallies will be limited. As such, I decided this week to venture into an industry that I mentioned several weeks ago but had not truly looked at any charts to determine possible trades and or desired entry points as well as stop losses and objectives.
I am talking about the Cannabis market that has been the talk recently. Last week, Cannabis stocks took a downturn in general and in looking at those stocks I did find 2 that do offer attractive opportunities with clear entry points, risk/reward ratios and positive probabilities numbers. One of them though is traded over-the-counter and therefore not as attractive to trade.
CRON Friday Closing Price - 9.77
CRON is the NASDAQ's first pot stock company. It is a Toronto-based cultivator of medical marijuana. In addition to Canada, it serves the international market as it ships its product to Germany, is building a facility in Israel and has a license through a joint venture in Australia. While it does not have a presence in the U.S. due to the uncertainty of regulations, as of the fiscal year ending March 31st, 2018 the company generated $2.2 million in revenue.
CRON has been in the news as of late and last week traded over 52 million shares, making it one of the principal stocks traded in the Cannabis market.
CRON started trading in July 2016 at $.17 cents and has been moving consistently higher since then, having reached a high of 15.30 just 4 weeks ago. In January of this year, the stock got up to 11.90 but then got into a corrective phase that took it down to 4.75 in February and from then to August traded sideways between $5 and $10 but with a slight bias to the downside. Nonetheless, in August when all the hullabaloo started about Cannabis stocks, the stock rallied in just 5 weeks up to the 15.30 high.
The last 2 weeks CRON has been coming down and closed on Friday at 9.77, which is only $.37 cents away from the breakout point at 9.40 that took the stock up to 15.30, suggesting this move down is likely to be just a retest of the breakout level.
CRON has risen 1500% (from $1 to $15.30) in just 15 months and that means a rate of about 10% per month. If that pattern continues and the breakout is confirmed with a green weekly close next Friday, it would suggest that the stock could get up as high as $20 over the next 10 months.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, CRON shows minor to perhaps decent support at 9.26 and decent at 8.54. On a daily closing basis, support is found at 9.12. It should also be mentioned that there is well established support down at the 8.00 level that includes the 200-day MA.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, CRON shows decent resistance at the previous all-time high at 11.90, minor at 12.89 and at 13.39 and decent at the all-time high at 15.30.
CRON did close near the lows of the week on Friday and further downside below last week's low at 9.40 is expected to be seen. It is likely that the daily close support level at 9.12 is going to be tested but it is unlikely that the intraweek support at 8.54 will be broken. Probabilities do favor a green weekly close next Friday above 9.77 due to the previous all-time high weekly close at 9.40 as well as to the psychological strength of the $10 demilitarized zone.
Purchases of CRON around 9.12 and using a stop loss at 8.44 and having a 6-month objective of $20 would offer a 14-1 risk/reward ratio. I would use a mental stop given that the 8.00 level is a strong support area.
My probability rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
MCIG Friday Closing Price - $.26 cents
MCIG has been trading since August 2013 and started trading at $.04 cents and within 6 months had moved up to $.92. Nonetheless, the stock fell into a slump after that original foray to the upside and fell all the way down to $.018 cents in December 2015. Nonetheless, in September 2016 the stock once again saw some buying interest come in and rallied from $.025 cents to $.50 cents over the next 4 months.
For the past 19 months, MCIG has been backing and filling with lower highs and higher lows being seen consistently. Rallies up to $.43 cents, $.37 cents and $.35 cents have been seen, while drops down to $13 cents, $.19 cents and $.22 cents have been seen as well. The formation that has been formed during the past 19 months is a triangle one that suggests a breakout will occur with an upside objective of $.75 cent. If that occurs, it is certainly possible that the all-time high at $.92 would become a magnet to be tested.
The most recent low in MCIG was $.219 and that low should not be broken given that it would break the triangle formation to the downside. The most recent high was at $.35 and a break of that high would break the triangle formation to the upside and offer the $.75 objective.
MCIG closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at $.2499 is expected to be seen this week. Support is found at $.235 and that is the desired entry point.
Purchases of MCIG around $.235 and using a stop loss at $.209 and having a $.75 objective will offer a 17-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). Nonetheless, keep in mind that this is an over-the-counter stock and therefore much riskier than trading on the established exchanges. By the same token, the stock has been averaging about 1.5 million shares traded daily so liquidity is not a problem.
FROM LAST WEEK BUT STILL VIABLE
RIG Friday Closing Price - 13.66
Did not follow through to the upside and generated a red weekly close and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.51 will be seen this week. The stock becomes an attractive purchase below 12.75 though on an intraweek basis the stock could (and likely should) get down to 12.47. I would be a buyer there using a stop loss at 12.30 and having a long term objective of $20.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated a negative reversal week of consequence, having dropped from 48.45 to 39.70 (an 18.1% drop) in one week. On a positive note, it seems that it was mainly technically driven, given that there was no news to trigger the fall. The stock did have some psychological support at the $40 level and it did stop the fall but the bulls were not able to generate much buying interest at that level and since it closed near the lows of the week, further downside below last week's low at 39.70 is likely to be seen this week. Minor to decent intraweek support is found at 36.80 that could end up being the downside target. By the same token, the 200-day MA is currently at 40.60 and in the past 15 months that line has only been broken once and then only by $3 and only for 4 weeks, meaning that a drop below 36.80 is highly unlikely to happen and the stock might not get down that low given the recent positive fundamental news. Very minor resistance is found at 41.25 and stronger at 41.92 that if broken and a daily close above 41.70 occurs, would suggest the worst of the correction is over. Probabilities favor the bears this week but it could turn out to be a positive reversal week. AXP generated a green inside week but a close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 106.72 will be seen this week. The stock rallied mainly off the DOW rally but the bulls did not accomplish breaking any resistance levels above, suggesting it was more of a pause week because of the indexes rather than any new buying interest. Nonetheless, the high for the week at 109.40 is now seen as a successful retest of the all-time high at 111.77 as well as a pivotal resistance level from which the bears can start new short positions. Downside objective remains the same as given last week at as low as 103.85 but the reality is that there is a minor but likely short-term indicative support at 104.55 that may be reached but likely not broken. I would venture an educated guess and say that the low for this week (and perhaps for this correction) will be between 105.55 and 105.89. Intraweek resistance is now found at 109.40 that if broken would suggest no further downside will be seen. I am likely to cover the shorts this week. CCJ was the most accomplished held stock this past week. The stock made a new 21-month intraweek and weekly closing high and convincingly closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 11.47, suggesting this is a break of the well-established 7+-year downtrend. Immediate upside objective is likely to be somewhere between 13.36 and 13.59 and from which a small correction to test the breakout of the 200-week MA will likely occur. As such, consideration can be given to taking profits above 13.00 and buying the positions back around 11.50, all of this to happen over a period of 1-3 weeks. Nonetheless, the breakout above the MA line does suggest that a new uptrend is likely to occur with plenty of short-covering to be seen with a fundamental objective of at least $16 and as high as $20. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CLF generated a red weekly close, suggesting the selling interest is starting to ramp up. Nonetheless, the stock does have an upside objective of $13 (based on a weekly close) and the probabilities favor that objective being reached but now likely to be on a backing and filling scenario. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 11.91 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the previous multi-year high daily close is at 11.92, suggesting that the stock will not close below that level at any time this coming week. By the same token, there is no intraweek support below until 11.25 is reached, meaning the stock could get down that low this week. Resistance is now found at 12.94 and at 13.10. Upside objective remains the $13 level on a weekly closing basis. ENG continues to meander around the 1.00 level based on a weekly close. The stock for the past 8 weeks has closed at 1.02, at 1.01, at 1.04, at .99, at 1.03, at 1.00, at 1.02 and on Friday at .99. The stock did show a bit more weakness this week than the previous ones, likely due to the strong fall in the indexes but considering that the probabilities favor the indexes having a positive reversal week this week, the stock might get below the recent low at .98 but then close in the green next Friday. Resistance remains decent at 1.04 on both the daily and weekly closing chart. Intraweek resistance is at 1.12 and support at .98. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week. FSLR made a new 52-week intraweek and weekly closing low on Friday and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 46.23 will be seen this week. The stock did get below a relatively important but old intraweek low at 47.04, meaning that the bears continue to be in control. The bulls are now dependent on the 45.26 low that was made in September of last year and is the last low of any consequence before the $40 level is reached. As such, if that low is broken, the bears will be able to generate another new leg down. The bulls were able to get back up to close near the 47.00 level, which is considered "general" support ($3 below the $50 level). Nonetheless, they are now in a need-for-a-green-close next Friday or the sellers will gain yet another advantage. The probabilities do favor the bears, especially considering that the 45.28 support is considered at best a minor to perhaps decent support. The most recent weekly high at 50.71 is now minor to perhaps decent resistance, especially on a weekly closing basis as that is where the 200-week MA is currently at. MT followed through on last week's negative reversal to generate another red weekly close and again near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 29.35 will be seen this week. The bears remain in control but the chart picture might change this week depending on the action. Downside objective for this week is 28.24, which is where a previous intraweek low of consequence occurred in July but that is further strengthened this week with the 100-week MA, currently at 28.20. Given that the bulls in the index market are likely to generate a positive reversal this week, the same might be true with the stock and if that happens, consideration should be given to taking profits. By the same token, if the intraweek support at 27.83 is broken, the original downside target of 24.73 (200-week MA) will become highly viable to be reached. It does look like a likely pivotal week for the stock. SLCA generated an inside week but with a green weekly close, which does increase the chances that the low of the downtrend may have been made the previous week with the 17.92 low. The green weekly close does make the previous week's close at 18.83 into the 3rd point on the 6-year uptrend that began in July 2012 at 11.07. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18.79 will be seen this week. If that occurs but the recent low at 17.92 is not broken and the stock goes above next week's high the following week, the bottom of this downtrend will likely be set. Pivotal resistance is now found at 20.51. Probabilities favor the bears this week but only for a retest of the recent low. TXN generated a new 5-month low as well as a new sell signal on both the daily and weekly closing charts. Downside objective is now 99.02 though some support starts to be found as high as 101.36. Strong support is found between 96.99 and 98.02 that is highly unlikely to be broken at this time, meaning that once the stock gets down to the support area between 99.01 and 101.36, consideration to taking profits should be given. Resistance will now be found between 104.57 and 105.90 and any weekly close above 105.36 would generate a failure signal. Probabilities strongly favor the bears this week but if desired downside objectives are reached, profit taking should be considered.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .99. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.01 (new price (40.14). 3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.36. 4) FSLR - Averaged long at 54.21. (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.97. 5) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.005 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 10.03. Stock closed on Friday at 12.08. 6) ARNA - Purchased at 39.73. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 40.14. 7) LVS - Liquidated at 59.21. Purchased at 59.92. Loss on the trade of $71 per 100 shares plus commissions. 8) AXP - Averaged short at 102.93 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 107.23. 9) OLN - Purchased at 25.36. Liquidated at 24.65. Loss on the trade of $71 per 100 shares plus commissions. 10) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .086 (new price 1.04). 11) MT - Averaged short at 31.90 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 33.03. Stock closed on Friday at 29.71. 12) SLCA - Purchased at 17.98. Stop loss at 16.95. Stock closed on Friday at 19.42. 13) TXN - Shorted at 108.85. Stop loss at 110.35. Stock closed on Friday at 103.28.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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