Issue #589 ![]() Oct 28, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls Showing Failure Signals, in Spite of Earnings Reports!
DOW Friday closing price - 24688
The indexes resumed the correction, having made a new 5-month low in the SPX and the NASDAQ and a new 3-month low in the DOW and falling from the highs 10.3%, 13.3% and 9.8% respectively. The indexes all closed near the lows of the week and further downside below 24445 in the DOW, 2628 in the SPX and 7057 in the NAZ are expected to be seen.
Earnings reports have not been of help this quarter as 85% of all earnings that have come out so far have been better than expected, meaning that the traders are no longer looking at earnings as a positive catalyst. It seems that the Trade War and increasing interest rates are now the key and at this moment that scenario is not expected to change.
Using the monthly charts, the indexes have been on an uptrend since March 2009 as no previous low month close has been broken during this entire period of time. Nonetheless, the indexes are now close to where that is now possible on Wednesday of this week (monthly close), given that with the exception of the DOW, all the other indexes traded intraweek below the most recent low monthly close this past week, suggesting that if on Wednesday the DOW closes below 24103, the SPX below 2640, and the NASDAQ below 7063, the first sell signal in 9 years will be given on the monthly chart. Last week's low in the SPX was 2625 and in the NAZ it was 7057, meaning that a close below those level this Wednesday is a real possibility since the indexes closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further intraweek downside below those lows will likely be seen this week. The DOW is the only index that is still somewhat far away from a sell signal on the monthly chart, since last week's low was 24445 and a drop and close on Wednesday below 24103 is needed to generate the sell signal. By the same token, the DOW is generating a negative reversal month already, having made a new all-time high in October and will be closing below last month's low, suggesting a negative scenario either way.
Either way, the indexes will be closing near the lows of the month and further downside below this month's lows is expected to be seen in November. Meaning that the low of the correction is not likely to have been seen yet.
For the sake of information, there are monthly intra-month levels that are not all that far away and that if broken by Wednesday, would generate a scenario where much further downside would be seen in November and probably the rest of the year. Those levels are in the DOW 23344, in the SPX at 2532 and in the NASDAQ at 6630. It is highly unlikely those levels will be seen by Wednesday but it is important to know them as those levels are likely to be the target-to-be-reached for November.
It is evident that the action seen in October, especially with no special negative catalyst having come out, that the highs for the year have been made and that "new" positive news will need to come out to give the bulls ammunition for possibly resuming the uptrend next year. If that news does not come out, the probabilities favor the indexes being in a wide trading range for the first 3-6 months of the new year, between whatever lows are made next month (but still above the levels mentioned above) and the highs seen the last 2 months.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor resistance at 25086 and then stronger and short-term pivotal at 25817. The SPX shows minor resistance at 2742 and then short-term 2816 and the NASDAQ shows minor resistance at 7319 and at 7438 and short-term pivotal at 7670. In all cases and on a daily closing basis, the 200-day MA will be important (DOW at 25148, SPX at 2767 and NAZ at 7519).
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to decent support between 24217 and 24247, and then decent at 23997. The SPX shows minor support at 2612 and the minor to decent at 2594 and then decent at 2553 and 2532. The NASDAQ shows minor support at 6991 and the minor to decent at 6924. Decent support is found at 6805 and again at 6630.
As stated above, the indexes are expected to go below last week's lows but I don't believe that the news has been so negative as to generate a sell signal on the monthly chart. In addition, there is a strong seasonal tendency to rally into the end of the year and with earnings reports still showing a growing economy, there are very few tangible reasons for the bears to be successful at this time. I read today that the probabilities of an interest rate hike in December, which were above 80% have dropped to about 67%, meaning that the traders are likely to wait for the decision before committing themselves to lower prices. As such, this coming week should be a turn-around week with perhaps early week weakness and then a rally starting on Wednesday for the monthly chart not to generate a sell signal.
Evidently the intraweek support levels given above (DOW at 24247, SPX at 2612 and NAZ at 6991) should hold up though there is a high likelihood of being seen. In addition, the 2 most important reports of the month are due out this week with the ISM index on Thursday and the Jobs report on Friday and it is unlikely that the bears will be aggressive with those 2 reports coming out. FB reports on Tuesday after the close and AAPL on Thursday after the close. FB is having problems so the traders are not likely to key on that report all that much and AAPL is not likely to show much change but they are still important and possibly catalytic reports, suggesting that the traders will also wait to see how they come out before being aggressive on either side. The way it looks right now is that Friday of next week will be the important day and usually the Jobs Report gives the bulls some ammunition.
Probabilities do favor some weakness being seen this week but a turn-around by Friday.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions at this time due to the uncertainty in the index market. Nonetheless, the charts will be much clearer by Wednesday's close and having the market (and many stocks) drop precipitously over the past few weeks, there are a lot of stocks worth looking into for purchase. If the bears fail to make a further statement for the monthly close, I will look to be a buyer toward the end of the week and will put the mentions on the message board.
One of the stocks purchased last week (CLB) has an extremely attractive chart for purchase and if the stock drops down to or slightly below last week's low, I will look to purchase more. In addition, CLF and CCJ also are now at levels that can be considered attractive for additional purchases. Then again, if the bears are able to make an additional negative statement this week with the monthly chart, rallies will be looked at as opportunities to sell. Like I said above, much more will be known by the end of trading on Wednesday (end of the month).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA followed through on the correction, having fallen an additional 12% in value on an intraweek basis this past week. Nonetheless, the stock got close to a decent intraweek support level at 34.90 with a drop down to 35.17 and bounced a little over $3, suggesting that there is buying interest at the support level. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low will be seen this week. If the 34.90 level breaks convincingly, there is no support of consequence below until 33.21. Decent to perhaps strong support is found at 30.00. To the upside and on an intraweek basis, there is minor support at last week's high at 39.99 and then decent as well as likely short-term pivotal support at 41.87. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but if the indexes don't break down below their supports, a rally late in the week might be seen. CCJ generated a strong down week, having gone down 10% in value on an intraweek basis below last week's close. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 10.37 is expected to be seen. Another negative is that the stock generated a failure signal, having closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 11.40, after having closed above the line 3 weeks in a row. Then again, the break above the MA was the first in 4+ years and normally the first break gets negated. On a slight positive note, there minor to decent weekly close support at 10.45 and the bears were unable to break it, suggesting that the selloff was more technical in nature than a tangible negative, meaning that the bears are unlikely to gain much more downside. The stock is likely to go below last week's low but does find decent intraweek support at 10.30 and then decent psychological support at the $10 demilitarized zone, meaning that the probabilities favor weakness early in the week and a recovery and the end of the week and a green weekly close next Friday. The stock gapped down on Tuesday between 11.35 and 11.26 and yet there was no news to support the gap, suggesting the gap might get closed this week. In addition, the stock got down to the 200-day MA, currently at 10.39 and bounced up from it. The last earnings report on September 26th was bullish and a gap got created. Given that the gap was based on news, this gap below at 9.99 should not get closed. If it does get closed it would be seen as a negative. Probabilities favor a drop down to 10.30 being seen this week and then a recovery and a green weekly close next Friday. CLB fell strongly this past week and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 85.09 will be seen this week. The stock has now fallen 28% over the past 3 weeks but the stock reported earnings on Wednesday evening and they were slightly better than expected and yet the stock fell 7.5% off of the report on an intraweek basis. One analyst (Credit Suisse) kept the stock at outperform but lowered the target to $105. Given that the stock closed on Friday at 87.05, it does suggest more upside potential than downside potential is expected. The stock did get down close to an important 7-year intraweek support at 84.50 with a low last week at 85.09. With the analysts still fundamentally bullish on the company, breaking that 7-year support is unlikely to occur, suggesting the stock is a buy at these prices. Below 84.50 there is another decent intraweek support at 82.74, meaning that even if the bears go after stops below 84.50 they will not accomplish the kind of a break they need to break the back of the stock. The stock has fallen straight down the last 3 weeks, meaning that no resistance levels have yet been built. Closest resistance level is at 99.87 and it is minor to decent at best, meaning that when the selling dries up, the probabilities of moving up in just a few days to the $100 level are high. Even though the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range it did bounce to close $2 above the low of the week, meaning that buying interest was found. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CLF has now given back 95% of what it gained in September as the stock got down to 10.09 this past week and the low in September was 9.50. Nonetheless, the stock is now back to a dependable support level at $10 that is unlikely to be broken unless the indexes go substantially lower or the stock generates new negative news. Weekly close support spanning 2 years is found between 9.86 and 9.91 and though the stock saw an intraweek low of 9.82 on Friday, the bulls were able to rally the stock enough to close at 10.09, which is above the weekly close support area. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low should be seen this week but intraweek support of consequence is found between 9.42 and 9.50 that is highly unlikely to be broken without negative fundamental news. By the same token, it does need to be mentioned that the 200-day MA is currently at 8.92 and that a drop to that line could be seen without changing the long-term direction. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 10.42. A break above that line would suggest a rally up to 11.14 or more likely to 11.44 would occur. A rally above 11.44 would offer a move up to 12.37 without any obstacles. The 9.42 intraweek support is a bit indicative as a break of that support would change the mid-term outlook to sideways from up, where it is now. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but some red below last week's low is likely to be seen first. CRON generated a failure signal, having closed on Friday below the previous all-time high weekly close at 9.40. The stock did close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.51 will be seen this week. By the same token and on a weekly closing basis, there is decent and important support at 7.37 that is unlikely to be broken unless some negative fundamental information comes out (unlikely). It is important to note that the stock is trading at the 200-day MA, currently at 7.85, and that line has only been broken twice in the life of the stock and on both occasions that it was broken it was only by a maximum of $.60 and for no more than a maximum of 4 weeks, meaning that even if the line is to break, the downside is limited. The chart suggests that there is strong buying support in this area on a daily and weekly closing basis and on down to 7.00 on an intraweek basis. Very minor intraweek resistance is found at 8.15, minor at 9.59 and minor to perhaps decent at 10.39. Previous all-time high at 11.90 is now considered decent resistance. Weekly chart suggests a possible drop as low as 6.81 could be seen this week but the probabilities favor a green weekly close next Friday and likely around 8.48. ENG generated a second failure signal this past week, having closed below the weekly close breakout point in May when the stock closed above $.90 and continued up to 1.47. Nonetheless, the bears failed to generate a new sell signal, having closed above the low weekly close from April a $.84. The stock closed slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at .93 than below last week's low at .80. The stock does not report earnings until 2 weeks from this last Friday and it is unlikely the traders will do anything during this period of time that is decisive or indicative. As such, more sideways trading in a narrow trading range is what is expected. FSLR reported slightly better than expected earnings but cut guidance and the stock fell 16% this past week. The stock has now fallen 52% since April. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 39.15 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, immediately after the earnings report came out 3 companies raised their rating on the stock to market perform from market underperform, suggesting that much further downside is unlikely to be seen. As it is, the stock reached a level of decent weekly close support between 36.72 and 40.72 that spans 7 years back to 2011 and given that the stock has fallen 52% and that the prospects for better results for the company in 2019 have been expressed, it is unlikely that much further downside will be seen. On an intraweek basis, the stock shows support at 39.18 and then a bit stronger at 35.59. The most recent intraweek support is found at 38.36 and it seems likely that will be the objective for this week. Nonetheless, having closed in the area of weekly close support, probabilities favor a green weekly close next Friday. The stock shows minor resistance at 39.92 and at 41.17 and then it is open air until 46.75. The stock gapped down after the report between 45.01 and 44.87 and that gap will be the first objective once a bottom has been found. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but like the rest of the market, the probabilities favor the bulls for the end of the week. MCIG generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high but then closing below the previous week's low and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .2461 will be seen this week. For 2 years, since October 16th, the stock has held above the 100-week MA, currently at .2390, which is also where the most recent intraweek low at .24 is found, meaning that it is unlikely that the line and that support will be broken. As such, the stock does look like a buy near the .24 level. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at .2642 and then nothing until .285. Longer term pivotal resistance is found at .2999. Like with most everything else, probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week and then the bulls for the end of the week. SLCA reported earnings this past week and they were substantially worse than expected and the stock took another strong leg down, having dropped an additional 12% in value from the previous week's close to Friday's close. On an intraweek basis, the stock has fallen 63% in value since May. All previous intraweek supports for the past 8 years were broken this past week as well as the strong weekly close support from September 2015 at 14.47. Nonetheless, some buying interest was seen at the end of the week, with the stock rallying to close on the highs of the day on Friday, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 14.54 will be seen on Monday. There was a gap created just after the report between 15.45 and 14.41 that was slightly chewed into with Friday's high at 14.54. If that gap is closed any day this coming week, the negative earnings report will disappear and a short covering rally would likely ensue. There is absolutely no resistance above until 18.65 is reached and that resistance is old from October 2015, meaning that the moment the traders realize that a bottom has been found to this downtrend, a short covering rally to that level is likely to be seen. Support is found at last week's low at 12.89 and then from 2011 at 12.37. Probabilities now favor the bulls.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .87. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.72 (new price (37.26). 3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.09. 4) FSLR - Purchased at 40.13. Averaged long at 49.51. (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 39.37. 5) CCJ - Purchased at 10.42. Averaged long at 10.457 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 10.61. 6) ARNA - Liquidated at 38.65. Purchased at 39.73. Loss on the trade of $108 per 100 shares plus commissions. 7) AXP - Liquidated at 102.51. Purchased at 102.30. Profit on the trade of $21 per 100 shares minus commissions. 8) CRON - Purchased at 7.65. Averaged long at 957.7 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.78. 9) CLB - Purchased at 85.31. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 87.05. 10) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .07 (new price .85). 11) SLCA - Purchased at 15.65. Averaged long at 17.667 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.21. 12) MCIG - Purchased at .26. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .25. 13) AXP - Shorted at 103.25. Covered shorts at 103.60. Loss on the trade of $35 per 100 shares plus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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