Issue #591
Nov 11, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls Looking to Take Indexes Higher but Selling Interest Remains High!

DOW Friday closing price - 25989
SPX Friday closing price - 2781
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7406

The indexes followed through to the previous week's positive reversal, having gone above the previous week's highs and then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW above 26277, SPX above 2815 and NAZ above 7572). Most of the gains though were fundamental as they came after the midterm elections, suggesting that there was more relief than worry regarding the changes that occurred. The fact that the Democrats are now in control of the house was not seen as a negative but as a fact that things will remain mostly the same and therefore the economic recovery will continue. Nonetheless, at the end of the week the bulls were unable to keep the momentum going and fell back on Friday, suggesting that further upside of consequence will be labored and require further fundamental positives.

All indexes generated a gap opening after the midterm elections and considering that the indexes had gapped up the week before and those gaps were not closed, a breakaway/runaway gap formation was formed. In the DOW those gaps are at 24906/25008 and at 25444/25544, in the SPX they are at 2685/2700 and at 2756/2764. In the NASDAQ though, the runaway gap between 7400/7435 was closed on Friday and that suggests that the breakaway gap between 7156 and 7255 will be targeted for closure, setting up a temporary dichotomy as to what direction the traders will now immediately target, a retest of the all-time highs or closure of all the gaps.

In looking at the weekly and monthly chart, the upside objectives of the indexes are the previous all-time highs seen earlier this year. In the DOW that level is 25616, in the SPX it is 2872 and in the NASDAQ it is 7637. Based on Friday's closes, the DOW is only 2.4% away from that level, the SPX is 3.2% away from that level and the NAZ is 3.1% away from that level. Given that the DOW has been the leader and likely will continue to lead, it does seem safe to say that the SPX and NAZ are not likely to reach their upside objectives. As such, the DOW will be the index the traders watch the closest for the rest of the year.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor resistance at Thursday's high at 26277 but then open air until the 26616 level that is decent to perhaps strong resistance. The SPX shows decent resistance at Wednesday's high at 2815 that is also now a double high using the 2816 high seen on October 17th. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 2848 and then decent again at 2872. The NASDAQ shows minor resistance at 7505, minor to perhaps decent at 7572 and then decent at 7637.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 25754, very minor at 25608 and then nothing until minor to decent support is found between 24899 and 24965. The SPX shows very minor support at 2755 and then nothing until decent support at 2700/2710. The NASDAQ shows decent and short-term pivotal support between 7255 and 7274 and then nothing until minor to perhaps decent at 7084.

It is clearly evident that the bulls are at a disadvantage given that the resistance levels above are not only close but strong and the support levels below are far and weak, meaning that any pause in the upside momentum that started 2 weeks ago will bring about another strong and fast move down. The NASDAQ has already given notice that the bears are being pro-active since the runaway gap in that index was closed.

One additional thing to watch this week is the 200-day MA in the SPX (at 2764) and the NASDAQ (at 7519). In the SPX that was the low on Friday and is now considered pivotal support and in the NAZ the line got broken to the downside on Friday and will now be considered pivotal resistance on a daily closing basis. Staying above the line in the SPX will keep the buyers coming in but the opposite is true in the NAZ. Who wins this battle will likely determine whether the traders become sellers or buyers.

The mixed picture in the indexes will keep the buyers with the short-term edge, meaning that at the beginning of the week and after perhaps a slightly down day on Monday, the buying interest will ramp up. Nonetheless, once that occurs the traders will need to keep the momentum going because any pause now in the momentum is likely to bring in an avalanche of selling going into the end of the month.

Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The outlook for the index market remains unclear though lightly favoring the bulls for the short-term. Neither purchases nor sells based on the overall market are clearly defined, meaning that being aggressive in either direction is not a good choice at this time.

Nonetheless, I did find a couple of stocks that are not all that tied to the index market and that are at very attractive purchase levels where risk/reward ratios are clearly defined and offer good probability ratings, meaning that no matter what the overall market does, the probabilities favor these stocks moving higher.

PURCHASES

LVS has dropped 40% in value over the past 4 months and finds itself oversold and a level of support of note at $50 that spans 8 years. The stock has traded above the $50 level 66% of the time, having been closing above $50 for 277 weeks and below for 139 weeks. In addition, the stock has been support on 4 different occasions and resistance once during that same period of time.

LVS reported earnings on October 24th and they were slightly lower than anticipated and the stock dropped down 3% down to the recent low at 49.28 but then reversed 2 weeks ago to negate the drop with a daily and weekly close above the previous low closes before the report, suggesting that a low to the correction has been found. The negation of the break came after it was announced that gambling in Macao has increased 2.6% even though fears were that gambling interest was on the wane there. In addition and after the earnings reports came out, 2 rating agencies kept the stock as was before (1 a buy and 1 a neutral) with upside objectives of $70 and $60.

LVS generated an inside week last week and a close in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 51.86 will be seen this week. Like with several held stocks that have also been in a corrective phase (CRON, ARNA, FSLR) but may have found a bottom to the correction, a retest of the recent low is needed and required and the probabilities seem to favor that scenario happening this week.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, LVS shows minor to perhaps decent support between 51.25 and 51.34 and then nothing until the recent low at 49.28 is reached. Nonetheless, on a daily and weekly closing basis, the $50 demilitarized zone offers decent support.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, LVS shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 54.80 and then decent at the previous week's high at 57.89 that is further strengthened by the 200-week MA, currently at 57.70. Above that level, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 61.59 and then minor to decent at 63.38. Likely upside objective of the mention is the resistance between 65.88 and 66.22.

LVS is a stock that is not all that sensitive to the index market and has already reported earnings and since then has also reported an increase in gambling interest in Macao, which is the Casino that is most important to the company. In addition, the stock is at a level of support, both psychological and chart-wise of consequence, strongly suggesting that there is more upside potential than downside potential.

Purchases of LVS below 51.35 and using a stop loss at 49.18 and having a 66.00 objective will offer 7-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

MT broke above the 200-week MA, currently at 24.56, in October of last year. That was a line that had not been broken for 9 years (since September 2009) and therefore the break meant that the low of the downtrend had been found. The stock broke the line convincingly given that the stock rallied 28% (up to 37.50) after a successful retest of the line occurred 4 weeks after the break of the line.

The 37.50 area that stopped the rally in MT was an established area of resistance going back to 2015 and it was not surprising that profit taking occurred there and that the stock has gotten back on a short-term downtrend that has now turned into a 37% correction. Nonetheless, the stock is now back down to the 200-week MA that it broke to the upside 13 months ago, suggesting that the bears will have a tough time taking the stock lower, especially considering that the company is considered to be the premier Steel producing company in the world, having outperformed all of its competitors over the last year by growing 28.6% compared to the industry growing at a 16.4%.

It should also be mentioned that MT is a stock that I shorted in August around the $32 level with a mention objective of 24.50. That objective was reached 3 weeks ago when the stock dropped down to 23.80, also meaning that the stock is a good chart stock.

For the past 2 weeks MT has generated inside weeks but last week the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 24.89 will be seen this week. With no retest of the low at 23.80 having occurred yet, the probabilities are that a drop below last week's low will be a retest of that level as well as another retest of the MA line that is currently at 24.56. If that is the case and the retest is successful, the traders will turn around and be buyers for a rally back up to retest the 37.50 level and probably even break that level given that the long term chart suggests that a rally up to the 53.89 level is the upside objective to be reached over the next 6-12 months.

Purchases of MT below 24.62 and using a stop loss at 23.65 and having a short-term objective of 28.37, a short to midterm objective of getting up to the 200-day MA, currently at 31.47, and a longer term objective of at least 37.50 if not higher will offer a 4-1 or better risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA reported better than expected earnings this week but a negative reversal week occurred, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 35.92 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 34.90 and then nothing below until 33.54 and a bit stronger at 33.00. Chart-wise, it was expected the stock would revisit the 34.90 level at some point but it was also expected that a rally back up to the 200-day MA, currently at 40.95, would happen first. The inability of the bulls to rally up to that level first is considered slightly bearish. Nonetheless, if the 34.90 level of support holds up, the bulls will get additional ammunition, as well as the needed/required retest of the recent low at 33.54. Consideration can be given to purchases around 35.00 but the probability rating is no better than 50-50. It should be stated that a weekly close (next Friday) below 35.74 would generate a new sell signal that would likely thrust the stock down to the $30 level. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

CCJ made a new 10-month intraweek high this past week but the bulls failed to confirm the breakout on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday below the most recent high weekly close at 12.08. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 11.31 than above last week's high at 12.78. The stock broke above the 200-week MA, currently a 11.35, for the 3rd time in the last 8 years and that is a strong positive but retesting of the line before further upside is seen is a high probability as it would confirm that this breakout will not be negated. Several rating companies did upgrade the stock after the Nov. 2nd earnings report to an objective of $16-$18, meaning that there is fundamental support to the stock. If in effect the stock goes down to test the breakout MA line, consideration should be given to adding positions. The chart is now clearly favoring the bulls for the longer term.

CLB generated a new 94-month weekly closing low but on an intraweek basis the stock went above the previous week's high and stayed above the previous week's low, suggesting the lower weekly close is not indicative of further downside. The sell pressure seen this past week was mostly due to oil dropping back down to the $60 level (down from $75) due to oversupply of oil in the market. The stock did bounce up $2 from the low on Friday and closing very slightly below the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 82.22 than above last week's high at 89.05. By the same token, the traders were awaiting news from the OPEC meeting that occurred today (Sunday) to likely make a decision whether to rally or go lower. The OPEC meeting said they would consider further oil production cuts in 2019 but that for now they would try to keep the production down to the levels that were previously agreed to, especially considering that those production levels were recently at 111% whereas they should be at only 100%. As such, the probabilities do favor oil and the stock opening higher on Monday. It should be noted that oil closed as an important pivotal chart level at the $60 demilitarized zone and any further downside on a weekly closing basis below Friday's close at 59.84 would be strong negative sign. By the same token, any intraweek break of the 58.07 level would be negative as well. The stock did close on the highs of the day on Friday and further upside above Friday's high at 85.76 is expected to be seen on Monday. If that occurs, Friday's low at 82.22 will become a successful retest of the previous 93-month low at 82.07 and would give the bulls new ammunition. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CLF generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.72 will be seen this week. The bears failed to generate a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart, given that the stock closed on Friday at 9.83 and the previous low weekly close for the past 17 weeks is at 9.86. Nonetheless, due to the negative reversal and the multiple lows (5) between 9.42 and 9.61, the traders are likely to attempt to trigger the stop loss orders below 9.42. If that occurs, the question will then be whether further downside will continue or not. On a negative note, the chart is showing a bearish Head & Shoulders formation with the right shoulder at 11.44, the head at 13.10 and the right shoulder at 11.28. The neckline is the line between the low points seen over that period at 9.42 and at 9.61. A break of the neckline would offer a 6.12 objective. As such, this coming week seems strongly pivotal for the stock with the probabilities favoring the bears. It is important to note that the 200-week MA is currently at 6.37, suggesting that such a drop is certainly viable. By the same token, it will not be easy for the bears to generate such a scenario given that the stock in September made a new 4-year high and there has been no negative news that would support such a failure occurring. Intraweek support is found at 9.61, at 9.50 and at 9.42. Below that, the 200-day MA is currently at 9.03. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at 10.42 that if broken would suggest no further downside will occur. Probabilities favor the bears but it is definitely a pivotal week in which anything can occur due to the strong support found below.

CRON generated a spike rally this past week than fizzled out, having gotten as high as 9.95 but then failing back to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.76 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a second green weekly close in a row, suggesting that the recent intra-week low at 6.50 is now set as a bottom. The chart does suggest the stock could get back down to somewhere between 6.81 and 7.05 and then turn around, meaning that a successful retest of the 6.50 low will have occurred, which based on the chart is needed and required due to the fact that low was worrisome as a lot of supports were broken to achieve that low. Nonetheless and in looking at the daily chart, there is intraweek support at 7.51 and the 200-day MA is currently at 7.84, suggesting the bears may be unable to get down to the 7.00 level. If that is the case, the recovery would then be swift and strong given the volatile nature of all Cannabis stocks. Resistance remains decent at the $10 demilitarized zone and up to 10.42. A rally above that level would suggest a retest of the 15.30 high may occur and perhaps even the uptrend resume. A break below 6.81 would be seen as a decent negative. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but the bulls for the end of the week.

ENG reported earnings this week but evidently the report did not give any new ammunition to either the bulls or the bears, given that the stock remained in the same trading range it has been in the last 13 trading days. Nonetheless and in looking at the overall chart for the past 10 years, it is evident that no news is likely to be good news for the stock given the strong support that has been built at the .80 level for many years. The stock did close on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at .88 is expected to be seen this week. A break above that level will offer at the very least a rally up to .93 but if that level is broken, a move up to the .96 and/or to 1.00 would likely to be seen. The 200-day MA is currently at 1.00 and as such, a confirmed close above 1.00 would likely bring in a strong short-covering rally that would suggest the stock would be moving higher during the next 3 months until the next earnings report comes out. Important and pivotal support remains at .80 that if broken would be a strong negative. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

FSLR generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 41.49 will be seen this week. Having dropped 55% in value over the past 6 months and making a new 17-month low at 36.51 3 weeks ago, a retest of that low is required and needed before new buying is seen with enough strength to target the $50 level. Any intraweek drop below 41.49 this coming week would be seen as that potential retest of the low. On a positive note, the stock did get up to the 46.05 level last week, which is a 21% rally from the lows and that strongly suggests the downtrend is over and that a major low is now in place. There is no intraweek support nearby other than psychological at $40 but on a daily closing basis there is some support at 42.25 and having closed on Friday at 42.23 it suggests that on a daily closing basis no further downside will be seen. Probabilities favor the bulls this week though some early intraweek weakness might be seen.

MCIG made a new 3-month weekly closing low on Friday but not on an intraweek basis as the previous week's low at .222 was not broken. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at .23 is expected to be seen. If the stock goes below last week's low but not below .222, a successful retest of the low will occur and will give the bulls new ammunition to take the stock higher. By the same token, a break below .219 would be a negative sign. The 200-day MA, currently at .25 is important if broken and confirmed. For the past 11 days the stock has been straddling the line but not closing above the line for 2 days in a row. If that can happen this week, it would be a sign that the stock is ready to move higher. Pivotal resistance is now found a Thursday's high at .2695. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls after a bit of early week weakness.

SLCA generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 12-day high but then going below the previous week's low and closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.59 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, this is another oil related stock that likely fell because oil fell and will rally if oil rallies this week. In addition, the stock had not yet retested the 8-year low at 12.89 that was made 3 weeks ago and such a retest is needed and required before the traders jump back in on the buy side. As such, if the stock gets above last week's high at 15.22, a successful retest of the low will have occurred as well as closure of the gap at 15.45 and the traders will turn around and become buyer. As long as the 12.89 low is not broken, the bulls seem to have a very slight edge. With the probabilities of oil starting to move back up, the probabilities favor the bulls this week. Closure of the gap at 15.45 would be a positive signal.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .88.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.62 (new price (36.70).

3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.83.

4) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.51. (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.22.

5) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.457 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.97.

6) CLB - Purchased at 82.29. Liquidated at 85.66. Profit on the trade of $337 per 100 shares minus commissions.

7) CLB - Averaged long at 34.38 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 85.48.

8) CRON - Averaged long at 9.577 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.55.

9) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .07 (new price .88).

10) SLCA - Averaged long at 17.667 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.20.

11) MCIG - Purchased at .26. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .235.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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