Issue #590 ![]() Nov 4, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Positive Reversal Seen. Correction Over?
DOW Friday closing price - 25270
The indexes generated a positive reversal week, having made new multi-month lows but then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW at 25578, SPX at 2756 and NAZ at 7456). Nonetheless, on Friday after all the important earnings and economic reports had come out, the indexes generated a negative reversal day, having made the highs for the week on Friday but then closing in the red, suggesting that the reports were not a supportive as expected and that the bulls need more fundamental positives to go substantially higher to test the all-time highs made earlier this year and that the possibilities of going back down to test the recent lows is likely to happen sooner than later.
The bulls were not able to accomplish all that much, other than suggest the lows for the correction "may" be over. The DOW closed below the decent weekly close resistance at 25316 in spite of having traded earlier in the day on Friday as high as 25578, the SPX was not even able to convincingly generate a failure signal, having closed only 5 points above the support that was broken at 2718 that gave the last sell signal to begin with, and the NAZ closed substantially below (over 150 points) the pivotal area of weekly close resistance that would open the door for an attempt to even retest the all-time high. As such, the positive reversal seen this past week is still not as indicative of a low to the correction having been made as the bulls would like it to be. This is especially true when considering that on the monthly chart, the indexes all closed near the lows of the month and further downside below last month's lows (DOW at 24122, SPX at 2603 and NAZ at 6926.
The indexes all gapped up on Wednesday when it was announced by the White House that they would begin to consider an agreement with China to end the Trade War. Nonetheless, the timing of the announcement was suspect due to mid-term elections, suggesting that the announcement may have only been done to generate Republican votes than having any truth to it. As such and with the negative reversal seen on Friday, closure of those gaps will be the primary objective this week as those gaps are not actually supported by tangible news. In the DOW the gap is down at 24906, in the SPX it is at 2685 and in the NASDAQ it is at 7166.
From a fundamental point of view, both the upside and downside are open for further movement given that the economy continues to grow (earnings reports continue to be better than expected) but interest rates are also expected to continue to rise due to the same reasons and the Trade War negatives are not expected to go away anytime soon, meaning that the fundamental outlook remains mixed and will not give the traders a clear picture or direction to follow.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows decent resistance between 25800 and 25817. Above that level, there is no resistance until 26616. The SPX shows minor to decent resistance between 2791 and 2801. Above that, there is no resistance until the previous all-time high at 2846 is reached. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 7501, which is further strengthened by the 200-day MA being currently at that level. Above that area, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 7637 and then stronger and more pivotal at 7670.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 24965 and then nothing until minor to decent support is found at 24247. The SPX shows minor support at 2691 and again at 2676 and then nothing until decent support is found at 2647. The NASDAQ shows very minor support at 7194 and then minor to decent at 7084. Below that level, there is no support until 6991.
The indexes are likely to be quite volatile this week with closure of the gaps being the primary objective. Nonetheless, Tuesday's mid-term elections are likely to have a strong fundamental impact, especially if the Democrats regain the House and even more so if they regain the Senate. Chart-wise, the likely downside objectives for the week are in the DOW the 24247 level, in the SPX 2647 level, and in the NASDAQ the 7084 level. Given that it is expected that the Republicans will gain the House back but not the Senate, the chart-outlook is likely to be representing that scenario right now.
There is nothing clear about the action that is likely to be seen this week. The indexes did close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week. By the same token, the indexes did close near the lows of the month and therefore further downside below last month's lows is expected to be seen this month. With the chart picture somewhat at odds with each other, the actual results of the fundamental picture this week is likely to have the indexes lean toward one of the other. By the same token, at this time and before the election results are known, there is no trading plan that can be made that has any degree of certainty. Nonetheless, much of that will change on Wednesday morning.
Probabilities favor no side this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions at this time due to the uncertainty in the index market because of the mid-term elections on Tuesday. In addition, on Wednesday the FOMC rate decision is due to come out. This means that the traders have no probability of direction at this time and will not likely take any positions on either side until that information comes out.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018, as of 10/1 Profit of $8412 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for October per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
AXP (long) $7
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.
TXN (short) $582 Total Profit for September, per 100 shares and after commissions $1307 Closed out losing trades for October per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
OLN (long) $85
ARNA (long) $122 TXN (long) $96 AXP (short) $49 CRON (long) $51 FSLR (long) $23 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. LVS (short) $26 Total Loss for October, per 100 shares, including commissions $452 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 11/1
CCJ (long) $30
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
NONE
Total $223 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 11/1
FSLR (long) $35
SLCA (long) $567 CRON (long) $863 MCIG (long) $31 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
CCJ (long) $136 Total $4486 Status of trades for month of October per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Loss of $3408
Status of account/portfolio for 2018, as of 10/31Profit of $5004 using 100 shares traded per mention.
ARNA generated a green weekly close, suggesting that the worst of the correction might be over. In addition and on the daily chart, the bulls were able to generate a buy signal having closed on Friday above the most recent high daily close at 37.82, as well as negating the previous sell signal given when the stock broke the daily close support at 37.77. Nonetheless, the new 6-month intraweek low seen this past week at 33.54 has not been tested on any of the charts and with decent intraweek resistance between 41.87 and 41.92, that does include the 200-day MA, currently at 41.00, it is highly unlikely that further upside above those levels will be seen without a successful retest of the recent lows being made. The stock did close near the highs of the week on Friday and further upside above last week's highs at 38.72 is expected to be seen this week. The chart suggests that a drop back down to 34.90 will be seen sometime over the next 2-3 weeks. I will look to re-buy that drop. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
CCJ generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.42 will be seen this week. There is/was some minor resistance at 11.39 that got broken on Friday but not by a sufficient amount to call it a break. Further and stronger resistance is found at 11.68 and at 11.91. Decent resistance is found between 12.16 and 12.38. Intraweek support is now found at 11.00 and at 10.68. The key level to watch this week for the weekly close next Friday is 11.38, which is where the 200-week MA is currently located. The bulls will want to generate a close above that line next Friday or the positive reversal will lose some strength. Probabilities favor the bulls. CLB bulls attempted to generate a positive reversal week but likely failed because of the falling oil market. Nonetheless, they did close in the upper of the week's trading range (above 85.38) which means a higher probability of going above last week's high at 88.69 than below last week's low at 82.07 will be in effect this week. Oil is expected to fall an additional $3 (to the $59-$60 level) and that is likely to keep some sell pressure on the stock. Nonetheless, the sell pressure is likely to work as a backing and filling event in the stock as well as the required/needed retest of the recent low at 82.07. The chats suggest that a drop as low as 84.00 could be seen this week. Nonetheless, such a drop also suggests that if the stock mimics last week's trading range, that a rally up to the 90.00 level is also likely to be seen. The 200 10-minute MA, currently at 35.75, was broken on Thursday for the first time in 16-trading days and is likely to continue to be of importance. Straddling the line for the first couple of days of the week is likely to occur. Probabilities favor the stock working lower at the beginning of the week and then rallying at the end of the week. CLF generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 9-week low and then closing in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.97 will be seen this week. The positive reversal suggests the worst of the correction is over and given that no important intraweek support was broken, it would suggest the uptrend could be resuming. The stock on Friday did go below Thursday's but also reversed to close green, suggesting that a retest of the recent low at 9.61 has occurred and that the traders will be putting their attention this week to the resistance levels above. Minor resistance is found at last week's high at 10.97, slightly stronger at 11.14 and decent as well as short-term pivotal at 11.44. Above 11.44 there is no resistance until 12.37 and then decent to strong at 13.10. Probabilities favor the bulls. CRON generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 12-week low and then closing green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.07 will be seen this week. With the stock having fallen 59% in value over the past 7 weeks, it is likely that for now the uptrend is over and that a period of sideways trading will be seen over the next few months. Nonetheless, the bears failed to make a bear statement, meaning that overall the uptrend remains for the longer term. Having gotten down as low as 6.50 this past week and in the process broken the psychological support at $10 and the general support at $7, short-term damage to the chart has been done, meaning that the $10 demilitarized zone will once again be decent resistance. For this week, there are two areas that the bulls will have to tackle successfully if they want to open the door for a rally back up to the $10 level as there is minor to decent intraweek resistance at 8.15 and the 200-day MA is currently at 7.85. If the bulls are able to break that area, then it is open air above until the $10 level is reached. Above the $10 demilitarized zone, there is decent and unlikely to be broken at this time resistance at 11.39. The probabilities favor a couple of weeks of backing and filling between support at 7.05 and resistance at 10.39. At this time though, the probabilities favor the bulls. FSLR generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 16-month low and then closing in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 43.13 will be seen this week. The positive reversal is the first seen since September 2016 and that reversal generated a 21.4% rally over a period of 6 weeks before any selling was seen again. This reversal though is likely to generate a bigger rally given that this reversal itself generated a 15.5% rally from low to high in the reversal week itself. Another decent positive is that even though the stock got down as low as 36.51, on a weekly closing basis the long-established support at the $40 level held up given that the stock closed the previous week at 39.38, followed by the green weekly close this past Friday. One additional positive sign is that the stock closed above the 42.25 level of resistance that was actually built the last time the stock generated a positive reversal week in September 2016, strongly suggesting that much further upside is likely to be seen. There is no intraweek resistance found until very minor at 48.00. In looking at the weekly chart though, there is no resistance until 49.50 level is reached. On a weekly closing basis though, there is minor but somewhat copious resistance between 45.53 and 45.88. As far a support is concerned, there is very minor support at 38.36 but given that there is no intraweek support of consequence anywhere close by, the bulls are somewhat forced to continue higher up to resistance before any pullback is seen. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week. MCIG, like CRON, also made a new 12-week low and reversed to close in the green on Friday, also suggesting the worst of the correction is over. The bulls failed to break the intraweek support of consequence at .2191, having gotten down to .2200 and then turning around. The stock had broken the 200-day MA, currently at .2510, a week ago last Friday but closed above the line on Friday, also suggesting that further upside is likely to be seen this week. Minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at .27 and again at .285 and stronger up at the .30 level. The stock has shown a tendency over the past few years of trading in a trading range for several weeks before doing anything of consequence, and it seems that scenario is what will happen now with the trading range being between .25 and .28 for a few weeks. SLCA generated a non-indicative inside week after the previous week's big drop in price. Nonetheless, the stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 14.78 than below last week's low at 13.67. It is possible that the bulls might have accomplished more this past week if oil had not broken down but given that oil did break down, the action seen must be considered positive. The stock is still showing an open gap at 15.45 that is somewhat pivotal to what the traders will do. Closure of the gap will suggest the low of the correction has been made but non-closure of the gap will leave the door open for further downside. Every day this past week the stock traded above 14.50 but 14.78 was the highest level seen. Nonetheless, with the sellers not having any success this past week, the probabilities favor the bulls continuing to try and if the gap is closed, the stock should continue higher to at least 18.36 given that there is no resistance above. Probabilities favor the bulls but as long as oil continues lower, the bears will be "in the game".
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .85. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.82 (new price (38.27). 3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.73. 4) FSLR - Purchased at 40.13. Averaged long at 49.51. (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 43.00. 5) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.457 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.14. 6) FSLR - Purchased at 37.80. Liquidated at 37.71. Loss on the trade of $9 per 100 shares plus commissions. 7) CLB - Purchsed at 85.31 and at 83.45. Averaged long at 34.38 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 86.03. 8) CRON - Averaged long at 9.577 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.06. 9) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .07 (new price .86). 10) SLCA - Averaged long at 17.667 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.29. 11) MCIG - Purchased at .26. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .255.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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