Issue #593
Nov 25, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bottom of Correction Likely Set. Xmas Rally Looms!

DOW Friday closing price - 24285
SPX Friday closing price - 2632
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6938

The indexes generated an additional down week, with the DOW falling 4.5%, the SPX falling 3.9% and the NASDAQ falling 4.3%. All the indexes closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside will be seen below last week's lows at (DOW 24268, SPX at 2631 and NAZ at 6919). There was no clear catalyst this past week for the drop but it is generally said the higher interest rate scenario that is expected to continue and the Trade War that remains without any solutions are the reason for the traders preferring the downside. In addition, oil tumbling and now in a bear market (has dropped 34% from the highs) and AAPL, who is the #1 stock in the NAZ, also now in a bear market (has fallen 26.3% from its October highs), caused the traders to prefer the downside this past week, especially considering that it was a low participation week (due to the holiday) with over 30% less volume that has been seen of late.

This coming week does have quite a few economic reports that could make a difference, starting on Tuesday with the Case/Schiller 20-city housing report as well as the Consumer Confidence number that is expected to come in at 135.7 (down from last month's 18-year high at 137.9), then on Wednesday, the 2nd estimate of GDP, the FOMC minutes from the last meeting, the weekly Crude Oil inventory number and the Advance Inventories for the Trade, Retail and Wholesale industries.

It is unlikely though, that any of these reports will have a positive effect given that housing information is not all the relevant at this time, the GDP report is not likely to be much different from the one that came out 2 weeks ago and the FOMC minutes are not likely to show any change in the game plan the Fed is on. What the traders are likely to be waiting for is the G-20 meeting on Saturday December 1st when Xi and Trump may start coming up with a solution to the Trade War and no information will be coming out on that meeting this week.

With the NASDAQ having made a new 7-month low for the year last week and then finishing on the lows of the week, it is expected that the down move will continue and the DOW and the SPX will also make a new 7-month lows, below 23397 and below 2603, respectively.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor resistance at 24446, a bit stronger at 24622 and again a bit stronger at 24858. The most pivotal level is at 25086 that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 25095. The SPX now shows minor but short-term pivotal resistance between 2670 and 2674. Above that level, there is resistance at 2717 and at 2746. The 200-day MA is currently at 2761. The NASDAQ shows very minor but short-term pivotal resistance at 7029, minor at 7120 and again at 7197 and then again short-term pivotal at 7337.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to decent support at the October low at 24122 and minor to perhaps decent at 23397. Below that level, there is minor support at 23828 until 23531 is reached. The strong support is the years low at 23344. The SPX shows decent but pivotal support at 2603, minor to perhaps decent at 2594 and then decent at 2553 and strong at the year's low at 2533. The NASDAQ shows minor support at last week's low at 6830, minor to decent at 6803 and strong as well as pivotal at the year's low at 6630.

Last week was a negative week that does put the bulls in a situation where they need some positive fundamental news to generate a recovery. Coming to some agreement, or at least beginning talks to find solutions with China regarding the Trade War, would give the bulls some ammunition but that is not likely to happen this week even if it happens at all. With the NASDAQ having broken the October low, the bears are presently in control of the chart and there are only 2 support levels below at 6805 and at 6630 and the chart does suggest that those levels will be seen and likely broken unless something fundamentally positive occurs. The bulls were able to prevent the index from generating a new low weekly close for the year as that level is at 6874 and though the index got down to 6830, the bulls were able to rally enough to close above that level on Friday. Nonetheless, if no positive news comes out this week, I believe the bears will be successful in breaking that level.

One thing the traders will be keeping an eye on this week is the 100-week MA, currently at 6815. The line has not been broken since 2016 and broken only three times in the last 9 years. In 2016 though, it did break the line for a total of 9 weeks and did get down as much as 470 points below the line, meaning that the possible downside objective that I gave on the message board last week of a drop down to the mid 6500's is certainly viable.

The probabilities favor the bears being in control this week, at least for the beginning part of the week. Nonetheless, with the G20 meeting scheduled for December 1st and a Xmas rally normally seen, I would expect some recovery at the end of the week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no mentions this week. The charts show that the probabilities favor the bears but with the strong volatility that has been seen of late, there is no way to come up with risk/reward ratios or probability ratings that would suggest a trade be done.

Nonetheless, I will be adding to CLF this week around the 8.30-8.40 level with a stop loss at 7.90. There are enough reasons to believe this trade will turn out to be a winner. I will also be considering adding to CCJ if the scenario that I mentioned in the Held Stock Updates comes to pass.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL has seen 8 straight weeks in a row of red weekly closes as well as a 26.4% drop from the all-time high at 233.47 that was seen the first week of October. The drop seen now places the stock in a bear market, meaning that new all-time highs are not likely to be seen for years, if at all. Based on the fact the stock is now in a downtrend, a retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 140.75, is likely the objective for the downside, though getting down to the line could take several months to achieve. Some chart buying interest should start to be found between $165 and $167 but getting down to that level now seems a high probability and likely sooner rather than later. Intraweek resistance is found between 180.10 and at 183.50 that is unlikely to be broken at this time. The chart does suggest that for the rest of the year and probably for the first month of the year, the stock is likely to trade between $160 and $180 before further downside is seen. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

ARNA failed to follow through to the upside off of last week's positive reversal week off of the announcement. The stock sold off in conjunction with the index market but did rally on Friday to close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that if the indexes don't continue lower, the rally will resume this week. Nonetheless and given that the indexes are expected to head lower, it is likely that the traders will use this week to go below last week's low at 38.33 and generate a retest of the positive reversal that was seen the previous week. Intraweek support is found at 36.80 and stronger at 34.90 and depending how low the indexes to, one of those support levels are likely to be reached. Nonetheless, this is not a chart that is showing any desire to head lower other than temporarily and for chart building reasons, meaning that dips will continue to be bought. Resistance is found at last week's high at 42.31 and at the previous week's high at 42.93. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 44.50 and decent and unlikely to be broken at this time at 45.85.

CCJ generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 11.50 will be seen this week. The negative reversal was likely due to general selling seen everywhere but it does mean that the 22-month high at 12.78 might now have a successful retest of it and if strides are done to the downside below the 200-week MA, currently at 11.33, it could mean the uptrend has been stymied. The most recent intraweek low is at 11.25 and if broken, especially on a daily closing basis, a drop back down to the 200-day MA, currently at 10.61 could be seen. In addition, 2 closes below the 200-week MA would do damage to the chart at this time. Resistance is found at 12.78 that if broken would give the bulls new ammunition. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

CLB generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then making a new 8-year low. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 78.44 is expected to be seen this week. There is minor to perhaps decent intraweek support below at 77.12 that is not as strong as the 82.74 level that was broken the previous week but being so oversold and at an extremely low price (compared to where it has been the past 8 years), the possibilities of that level holding up are decent. In 2010 when the stock got down to 77.12 it then bounced up to 92.10 over a period of 8 weeks. I expect the stock to do the same this time around. Resistance is presently found at 88.04 and at 88.98. The stock gapped down on Friday between 82.31 and 81.60 and since there was no news to support the gap, closure of the gap will be a target for this week. Probabilities favor the bears for the beginning of the week but the bulls for the later part of the week.

CLF made a new 4-month low and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.66 will be seen this week. The stock has now given up all of the gains that were made after the July 20th earnings report that took the stock from 8.89 to 13.10. The stock did break the 200-day MA, currently at 9.17, and if confirmed (likely) it will suggest that the uptrend is over and that a sideways trend between 8.28 and 12.37 will begin. There is quite a bit of support between 8.11 and 8.28 that not only goes back to an important and decent support built the 3rd week of January 2017 but also represents 8 weeks of support built between May and July of this year. As such, it is highly unlikely that level of support will be broken given that there has not been any negative news for the company coming out. Resistance is now minor to decent at 9.14 that if broken would open the door for the $10 level to be reached. Probabilities favor the bears for the beginning of the week but the bulls toward the end of the week.

CRON was one of the few stocks that actually generated a green week, suggesting that the stock is not presently closely tied to the market. Nonetheless, the stock did generate an inside week, meaning it was affected slightly by the selling interest seen everywhere else. The stock did close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.86 will be seen this week. Resistance is found at 9.08, at 9.54 and strong and pivotal at the $10 demilitarized zone. Support is now found at 7.77 that if broken would likely generate new selling interest. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG generated a small negative week in which the stock did go below the previous week's low, suggesting that it could turn out to be a retest of the recent .80 cent low, which is needed/required but had not happened yet. Support is decent and pivotal at .80. Resistance is found at .91 and short-term pivotal at .95. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but this is a stock that at these prices is not likely to go lower.

FSLR had an uneventful week, having trades just slightly above the high and the low of the previous week and closing in the middle of the week's trading range. Nonetheless, on a week when the indexes and oil fell strongly, the uneventful week can be seen as a gain for the bulls given that a stock that is still in a midterm downtrend and did not react negatively is a positive. The stock has now traded for the past 3 weeks between 41.49 and 44.80 and the chart outlook still suggests a retest of the $50 level is "in the cards" before Xmas. Short-term pivotal support is at 41.49 and resistance is at 44.89 and a bit stronger at 46.09. Nonetheless, a drop down to the $40 demilitarized zone can still be seen and maintain the $50 objective. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

MCIG generated an inside week but did manage a green weekly close, meaning that the selling interest might be drying up. Nonetheless, the stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going below last week's low at .20 than above last week's high at .2436. By the same token and like with CRON, the green close suggests that the stock will not react to the index market and that it is on a world of it own (the Marijuana market). As stated last week, the next intraweek support level is found at .1925 that should hold up as the 21 month chart suggests that the stock is trading in a sideways trading range based on the weekly close between .20 and .28. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but only for an additional small move to the downside. A rally above .245 would change that outlook.

LVS made a new 29-month intraweek low and a new 27-month weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 48.64 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock still closed above the decent weekly close support area at $50 and did rally $2.10 from the low of the week, suggesting there is buying interest in this area. On an intraweek basis and going back to 2013, the 47.95 to 48.28 is seen as decent intraweek support and from which the 10+-year high at 88.28 occurred 9 months later, meaning that this area will bring in buying interest, no matter what the indexes do. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 52.88 that if broken would suggest the worst of this move down is over. Probabilities favor the bears for the beginning of the week but a recovery rally starting at the end of the week.

SCCO received a downgrade in price objective from $45 down to $42 and on Friday the stock started to break the important 200-week MA, currently at 35.22 and the traders abandoned the stock in droves (highest volume day in at least 2 years). The fall was exacerbated by metals getting hit as well. In addition, the stock broke below the decent intraweek support at 32.63 and even broke the support at 31.52 which was the low made right after the stock started the major uptrend to 58.09. It does seem that much of the selling was panic liquidation on a day where participation in the market was low, suggesting the stock could generate a bounce this week given that there really wasn't any negative news of consequence given. Nonetheless, the bulls need to negate this break this coming week or the bulls will find themselves in complete control for the next few months. After this week and if the bulls cannot reverse the drop by next Friday, resistance will become decent at 33.90 and stronger at the 200-week MA, currently at 35.22. Previously established intraweek support is not found until the 28.00 level is reached, so it is possible that is this week's objective. On a possibly positive note, the stock gapped down on Friday between 35.51 and 34.86 and given that there was no negative fundamental news (other than the metals going down in masse), expectations that the gap will be closed soon do exist. By the same token and if there is not a complete reversal this week, the bulls will find it very difficult to get above the 200-week MA until the fundamentals for the metal market change to positive. As such, if the stock gets back to the original stop loss point at 35.49, consideration should be given to liquidating the positions until such a time that the scenario for the metals change.

SLCA generated a uneventful inside week but a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 14.35 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and considering what oil did this past week, the action has to be considered positive rather than negative. If the stock does go below last week's low this week, it could be considered the required/needed retest on the weekly chart of the double bottom at 12.89/12.97. Support is found at 13.72, which should be the downside objective for this week. Resistance is now found at 15.72 that if broken after a successful retest of the double bottom occurs, it should give the bulls strong ammunition for further upside. Probabilities favor the bears for the beginning of the week but the bulls for the latter part of the week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .85.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.03 (new price (40.29).

3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.78.

4) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.51. (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 43.34.

5) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.457 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.66.

6) AAPL - Shorted at 187.40. Covered shorts at 186.87. Loss on the trade of $53 per 100 shares plus commissions.

7) CLB - Averaged long at 84.38 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 79.18.

8) CRON - Averaged long at 9.577 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.81.

9) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .064 (new price .77).

10) SLCA - Averaged long at 17.667 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.77.

11) MCIG - Purchased at .26. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .218.

12) LVS - Purchased at 51.52. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 50.74.

13) MT - Liquidated at 23.73. Purchased at 24.64. Loss on the trade of $91 per 100 shares plus commissions.

14) SCCO - Purchased at 36.96. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 32.12.

15) AAPL - Shorted at 180.90. Stop loss at 183.60. Stock closed on Friday at 172.29.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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