Issue #592 ![]() Nov 18, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bottom of Correction Likely Set. Xmas Rally Looms!
DOW Friday closing price - 25413
The indexes generated an unexpected red week, having failed to follow through to the upside after the previous week's close near the highs of the week and ending up the week with a red close. From the beginning of the week the news was negative given that a significant drop in auto sales was reported in China, a key support level in oil was broken and clear signs of a slowdown in Global growth were seen. By Thursday morning, the DOW had fallen 4% from the previous Friday's close, the SPX had fallen 4.7% and the NASDAQ 6.1%.
Nonetheless, the expectation before the week started was that the market was on a rally and that the previous all-time highs were likely to be tested before new selling appeared and by the end of the week the bulls were able to turn the indexes around to the point that they all closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 25966, SPX at 2775, and NASDAQ at 7371) would be seen this week and that the previous rally would continue.
From a chart point of view, last week's drop was not all the unexpected given that the indexes over the past 3 weeks had generated gaps to the upside that were not supported by fundamental news, meaning that closure of the gaps was highly probable before an attempt to test (and possibly break) the all-time highs could occur. All the gaps have now been closed and a successful retest of the October lows has occurred on the daily chart. The same will occur this coming week on the weekly chart if the indexes go above last week's highs and close in the green on Friday.
There are only 6 weeks left in the year and there is a seasonal tendency to generate a Xmas rally at the end of the year and given that it is unlikely that any new negative news of consequence will come out this year (Fed raising rates next month is already expected), the probabilities do favor the bulls having the edge at this time. By the same token, Xmas rallies have not normally been "game changers", meaning that it is unlikely that new all-time highs will be made in 2018.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance between 25800 and 25817 very minor at 26167 and decent at the recent high at 26277. Above that level, there is no resistance the previous all-time high at 26616. The SPX shows minor resistance at 2754 that is further strengthened on a daily closing basis by the 200-day MA, currently at 2760. Above that level, there is resistance at 2789 and at 2801 and then decent and possibly strong at the double high at 2816/2815. Above that level it is mostly open air until th previous all-time high at 2872 is reached. The NASDAQ shows minor resistance at 7319, minor again at 7438 and then decent at 7505 which is an area that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 7515. Above that level, there is minor to perhaps decent at 7572 and then decent at 7637.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 25120 and minor to decent at the 25,000 demilitarized zone and then pivotal at 24787. The SPX shows minor to perhaps decent support at 2700/2710 and then pivotal at 2670. The NASDAQ shows decent support at 7072 and strongly pivotal at 6922.
The indexes have now done sufficient enough base building and retesting to suggest that further downside below last week's lows is not going to occur unless new negative fundamentals occur. This suggests that for the next 6 weeks the bias will be to the upside but slowly and not with any great strides. The NASDAQ and the Tech Industry have lost their leadership and it is unlikely that will change before the new year, meaning that rallies will be limited in scope.
The DOW will likely be the leader with the index shooting for a rally to 26616 over the next 6 weeks. The SPX will have problems getting above the double high at 2816 and the NAZ will have serious problems getting above 7637 and staying above the 200-day MA.
For this coming week, probabilities do favor a slight upward bias but with Thanksgiving on Thursday and Friday being a half day, the action this week will likely be limited in scope with some backing and filling being seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no mentions this week. It is a short holiday week and unlikely that much movement will be seen. In addition, portfolio is full and new mentions would require liquidation of existing positions and all presently held stocks show promising action for the next few weeks.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA announced on Thursday morning a global license agreement for $1.2 billion dollars to develop, manufacture, and commercialize one of the drug products (Ralinepag) and the stock rallied 22% off of the news. The stock did close near the lows of the day on Thursday, suggesting further downside below Thursday's low would be seen on Friday but then on Friday one of the rating companies (RBC) raised the target to $70 (up from $65) and the stock made another high and closed out the week with a positive reversal, having made a new 8 month low and then a new 6-week high. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 42.93 is expected to be seen this week. There is minor resistance at 44.50 and decent at 45.85 that is unlikely to be broken at this time without some retesting of the breakout area and some backing and filling to build a new support base. In looking at the chart, it does suggest that a 38.63 to 45.85 trading range will be in effect for the next few weeks, with a slight chance of a drop down to 36.80 where the support is a bit stronger. The gap off of the news was between 34.45 and 38.63 and given that the gap occurred off of a positive fundamental piece of news, it is now highly unlikely that the gap will closed and the 38.63 gap area now will be seen as support, especially given that the breakout occurred from a high daily close at 38.67. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CCJ generated an intraweek retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 11.34, that was broken the previous for the third time in the past 8 years. The stock got down to 11.25 and then turned around to close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 12.06 will be seen this week. It should be mentioned that the norm for a break of a long term trend is 3 times before it "sticks" and it seems that requirement has now been fulfilled. The bulls did fail to generate a close above the high weekly close made 8 weeks ago at 12.08 but having closed the previous week at 11.97 and last week at 11.92 and in the meantime generating positive action on the intraweek chart, does suggest the break of that resistance will occur now and that a rally toward to the next intraweek resistance area at 13.36 is "on tap" for the next week or two. I do want to mention that on a monthly closing basis (2 weeks from this past Friday) there is pivotal resistance at 12.75 that if broken would change the chart conclusively to favor the bulls. With 2 rating companies recently giving upside objectives of $16 and $18, it does seem that this stock is one of the better and more secure purchases out there. CLB generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 94-month intraweek low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 86.82 will be seen this week. Every single positive reversal over the past 5 years has resulted in a rally, with the minimum rally being $14 from the lows and the most being $50. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 89.05 that if broken would open the door for a rally up to the $99-$100 level as there is no built resistance above. Intraweek support is found at 84.57 (minor) and at 82.07 minor to decent. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CLF generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.59 will be seen this week. If that occurs, a double low will be generated with the 9.61 low seen 3 weeks ago and the 9.64 low seen last week. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at last week's high at 10.59 that if broken would offer a rally up to at least 11.14. Further resistance is found at 11.28 and pivotal at 11.44 that if broken would open the door for a retest of the recent high at 13.10. Intraweek support is found at 9.82 and pivotal at 9.61/9.63. The stock has built a potentially bearish Head & Shoulders formation that if confirmed and broken would offer a downside objective $6. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CRON generated a positive reversal week, having gone below last week's low and the closing in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.08 will be seen this week. If that occurs, a successful retest of the 6.51 low seen in the last week of October will occur and the chart will be fulfilled to the downside. In addition, the drop down early in the week followed by the rally at the end of the week, generated a successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 7.88, and made last week's low at 7.52 into a decent and pivotal support level. Pivotal resistance is found at 9.95 that if broken would mean that the bears have lost their edge. Further resistance is found at 10.39 and then open air until 11.90 is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG made a new 4-week intraweek high but the bulls were still not able to generate a break of the weekly close resistance at .91. By the same token, the bias all week was slightly to the upside and with no earnings news scheduled for another 3 months, it does seem that slowly but surely the bulls are gaining the edge. Daily close resistance is found at .93 that if broken would mean the 200-day MA, currently at 1.00, would be tested. Any confirmed close above 1.00 would shift the edge to the bulls. New support is now found at .84. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. FSLR generated a relatively uneventful inside week but did make a new 4-month daily and weekly closing high as well as a close ion the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's Minor resistance is found at 46.08 and at 47.72 and decent at the $50 demilitarized zone that has now become a clear target, especially considering that the 200-week MA is currently at 50.32. Support is found at 41.49 that is broken would suggest a drop down to the $40 demilitarized zone would occur. Probabilities favor the bulls. MCIG generated a new sell signal, having broken below the 6-month intraweek support at .2191 and closing on Friday below the weekly close support at .228. The stock got down to the next level of support at the .20 level and bounced up to close at .2143 but the stock still closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .20 will be seen this week. The next intraweek support level is found at .1925 that should hold up as the 21 month chart suggests that the stock is trading in a sideways trading range based on the weekly close between .20 and .28. The .225 level that got broken this week is now resistance on both a daily and weekly closing basis. A close above that level will give the short-term edge back to the bulls. Probabilities favor the bears this week but only for a additional move to the downside. LVS generated a green weekly close and a close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 54.23 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at 50.82 will become the required/needed retest of the 49.28 low seen 3 weeks ago. The stock has an open gap between 54.37 and 55.27 that will be a target for closure. If the gap is closed, it will remove a negative from the chart. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 56.88 and decent as well as longer term pivotal at a double high at 58.09/57.89 that would also generate a buy signal of consequence, especially considering that the 200-week MA is currently at 57.69. Short-term pivotal support is found at last week's low at 50.82 that if broken would negate last week's rally. Probabilities favor the bulls. MT generated a red week but the close was near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 25.04 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at 23.83 will become a double bottom when matched with the 23.80 low seen 5 weeks ago and suggest that a major bottom has been built, especially considering that the 200-week MA, currently at 24.58, has been involved and has held firm during this period of weakness. Minor resistance is found at 25.53 and then minor to decent as well as short-term pivotal at 26.34. A break of that support would open the door for a rally back up to the 28.28 daily close resistance that when broken brought about the drop down to 23.80. Support is now found at 24.19 and decent to perhaps strong at the double bottom. Probabilities favor the bulls. SCCO generated a red week but the close was near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 38.12 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at 36.16 will become a successful retest of the low seen 3 weeks ago at 35.59 and suggest that a bottom to the recent downtrend has been found, especially considering at the 200-week MA, is currently at 35.19. The stock is showing an island-like formation to the downside with a gap up between 38.38 and 38.70 and a gap down a week ago between 38.85 and 38.28. If that gap is closed, it will take a negative away from the bears and suggest the worst of the downtrend is over. Minor resistance is found at 39.50 and at 40.06 and pivotal at 41.42. A break above 41.42 will give a new buy signal on all charts. Minor to perhaps decent support is found at 36.16 and stronger at 35.59. Probabilities favor the bulls. SLCA generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then making a new 3-week high and closing on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 15.66 will be seen this week. In addition, a buy signal was given on the daily chart, having broken the previous multi-day high at 15.20 and closing the gap at 15.45 that had been created after the earnings report came out. Last but not least, if the stock gets above last week's high at 15.66 this week, a double bottom of great consequence at 12.89/12.97 will have been built. The last time such a double bottom was built was in January 2016 at 13.55/13.54 and that double bottom engendered a rally up to 60.07 over the following 52 weeks. There is no resistance above until 18.65 is reached (18.23 on a daily close) and that considered at best a minor resistance. The next intraweek resistance of any consequence is found at 20.81 and a bit stronger at 22.61. Support is now found at the double bottom. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .90. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.20 (new price (41.68). 3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.30. 4) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.51. (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 44.37. 5) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.457 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.92. 6) CLB - Purchased at 83.66. Liquidated at 81.97. Loss on the trade of $169 per 100 shares plus commissions. 7) CLB - Averaged long at 34.38 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 86.48. 8) CRON - Averaged long at 9.577 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.56. 9) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .07 (new price .88). 10) SLCA - Averaged long at 17.667 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 15.49. 11) MCIG - Purchased at .26. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .2143. 12) LVS - Purchased at 51.52. Stop loss is at 49.18. Stock closed on Friday at 53.81. 13) MT - Purchased at 24.64. Stop loss at 23.65. Stock closed on Friday at 24.81. 14) SCCO - Purchased at 36.96. Stop loss at 35.49. Stock closed on Friday at 37.81.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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