Issue #599 ![]() Jan 20, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Traders Leaning Toward the Bull Side but Fundamental Support Iffy.
DOW Friday closing price - 24706
The indexes continued the rally this past week, having negated the break of support the previous week and then confirming that negation. Nonetheless, it was not better earnings reports that helped the bulls rally the market (earnings mostly disappointed this past week) but the idea that the Trade War might be easing as another meeting between China and the U.S. has been scheduled for January 30-31. Such support is fragile given that nothing has actually yet happened.
It was not all that difficult for the bulls to rally the indexes this past week given that there was no resistance of consequence above and no strong ammunition for the bears to stop such a rally. Nonetheless, that scenario will be changing this week as all indexes are getting near the 200-day MA's, which were broken convincingly to the downside in December, and breaking of that line to the upside will likely require tangible fundamental proof that the negatives have "gone away". In the DOW that line is at 24962, in the SPX that line is at 2739 and in the NASDAQ it is at 7451.
This week the DOW will be at the forefront of the earnings reports as all the important earnings scheduled are in that index. The SPX earnings are now mostly over and the NASDAQ reports are mostly due out the following week. As such and with the DOW having the spotlight, the 25,000 level is likely to be reached but whether the bulls can generate 2 closes in a row about that demilitarized zone is doubtful without much better earnings than expected. Given that earnings have not generally been coming out better than expected, it is unlikely the bulls will have much success in getting above that area, at least not without some resolution of the Trade War.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor resistance at 25828, minor to decent at 25086, and decent at 25402. These levels are further supported by the fact they are both found on the daily and weekly chart. The SPX shows minor resistance at 2585, minor to perhaps decent at 2717 and again at 2742. The NASDAQ shows minor resistance at 7205 and then nothing until minor to perhaps decent at 7319. Above that level, there is no resistance until decent as well as pivotal at 7485.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to decent support at 23997 and then short-term pivotal support at 23881. The SPX shows minor to decent support at 2603 and then short-term pivotal at 2583. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent at 7050 and then short-term pivotal between 6805 and 6830.
With no catalytic earnings reports due out this week and the scheduled Trade war meeting between China and the U.S. not until the 30th, the trading will likely be all chart oriented. The DOW has averaged about an 850 point trading range per week the last 3 weeks and given that reaching the psychological resistance and 200-day MA at 25000 is within 300 points of Friday's close it does suggest that there might be more red than green seen this week. Certainly, the bears are more likely to get involved this week than the previous 2 weeks simply because resistance areas are now involved where they weren't previously. Possible and perhaps even probable trading range this week could be 24,000 to 25,000, which would mimic last week's 985 point trading range (23765 to 24750). Best case scenario for the bulls and for the downside targets would be the minor support found between 23247 and 23268.
By the way, it is interesting to note that in spite of the strong rally and green week, the VIX did not generate a break of the support at 15.94 or of the 200-day MA, currently at 16.58. The index had a low of 17.17 and a close on Friday at 17.80.
Nothing is likely to be decided this week given that all the news of consequence, both on the earnings side as well as the economic side, are due out the following week. Simply stated, the traders are likely to see this week as a short-term "trading" week and trade both sides. Probabilities favor 2-way action all week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Once again I took a look at quite a few stocks and found very few that are either at attractive sell or purchase levels. Last week, all buy purchases performed as expected though only 1 of the 3 mentions got down to the desired entry point. None of the mentions from last week are at levels this week where a purchase can be considered. As such, I had to look elsewhere.
I did find 1 stock that looks like a good (actually excellent) purchase this week but I was surprised to even find one given that most of the stocks I looked at seem to be "in the middle" of a move up to resistance or too far away from support, meaning not tradeable at this time with a good risk/reward ratio or probability rating.
PURCHASES
FNSR Friday Closing Price - 21.72
FNSR had been in a downtrend that started on December 2016 from a high of 36.85 to a low made in April of last year at 14.25. In the process, the 200-week MA, currently at 20.55 and which the stock had traded above for 15 months, was broken in October 2017, meaning that there was little interest in buying the stock for long term appreciation. Nonetheless, in November the company was purchased in a deal that the analysts thought would benefit both companies and in one week it all changed with a 27% appreciation in price, a buy signal given on all charts, and the 200-weekly MA broken to the upside.
FNSR rallied up to 23.68 off of the news but then when the news was all factored in, the traders started working on doing the required backing and filling needed to build a new support level as well as retesting the MA line to make sure the fundamental changes that occurred were still being viewed as positive for the future. During this process, the stock went from 23.68 to a low of 20.38, which was seen 4 weeks ago, and did get back down to the MA and generated what is now seen as a successful retest of the important line. In addition and on the daily chart, that retest of the MA has also been successfully tested with a drop down to 20.68 a week and a half later. Simply stated, the chart is now fulfilled to the downside and ready for a new leg up to begin.
In addition to the chart work done and because of the news that caused the rally, there is now a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 15.81 to 23.68 and the flag being the trading action the past 10 weeks down to 20.38. A break of the top of the flag offers an objective of 28.25 which connect perfectly with a decent to perhaps strong resistance level at 28.20 as well as the initial weekly close breakdown point at 27.57. Simply stated, if there is no negative fundamental news, that objective is highly probable to be reached.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, FNSR shows minor resistance at 23.34 and minor to perhaps decent at the top of the flag at 23.68. Above that level, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 25.41 and at 26.16. Decent resistance is then found between 28.84 and 29.07.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, FNSR shows very minor support at 21.38, minor at 20.68 and minor to decent as well as pivotal at 20.38.
It is interesting to note that there are 14 analysts following the company and the last consensus made of those rating companies, which occurred this month, shows 1 offering a negative status, 2 companies generating a hold, 5 companies having it as a buy and 6 companies giving it a strong buy rating.
The chart is now fulfilled to the downside and set for a new leg up. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 21.91 is expected to be seen. The 200 60-minute MA is currently at 21.60, meaning that there probably will not be much of a dip from Friday's close.
Purchases of FNSR between 21.60 and Friday's close at 21.72 and using a stop loss at 20.28 and having a 28.20 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The only negative to the trade that I see is that this is a slow moving stock and likely to take as long as 3-6 months for the objective to be reached. Nonetheless, the trade is a high probability trade.
On another note:
I am planning to add positions this week in MCIG. The stock has successfully retested an important low as well as the 200-week MA and seems poised to move up from here, considering that Cannabis stocks are moving higher. I plan to purchase the stock around Friday's close and use a stop loss at .1365 with at least a .30 objective but with a good possibility of a lot more if the .30 level is broken, which is where a big 4-point downtrend line is presently found. See held stocks update for more detail.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AAPL generated a 2nd green weekly close, which is the first time it has done that since July of last year. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to break any resistance levels as the most recent high at 159.36, seen 3 weeks ago, remained unbroken. As such, the 2 green weekly closes in a row are probably more as a result of the indexes going up 3 weeks in a row than anything the stock itself is doing. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 157.88 is expected to be seen this week. Likely short-term pivotal resistance is found at 159.36. Above that level, there is no resistance whatsoever until 164.94 is reached. The stop loss is at 159.46 but for now I have it as mental simply because the $160 demilitarized zone could act as psychological resistance and the index charts suggest more red than green will be seen this week. Nonetheless, any rally above 160.30 would suggest the $164 level will be seen. Support is last week's low at 151.27. If broken (unlikely this week) it would be a negative sign. ARNA generated an inside week and a close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting the traders are unsure of what to do at this time. The stock has generated 4 green weekly closes in a row, meaning the bulls have a slight edge but given that there is some resistance at 45.11 and stronger at 45.85, it is unlikely that any decisions will be made this week. On a possible bullish note, the stock has built a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the 10-day rally from 35.04 to 45.11 and the flag being the 10-day trading range down to 41.73. A rally above rally 45.11 would offer an upside objective of 51.80, over a 10-day period of time, if and when the flag is confirmed as such. The 200-day MA is currently at 41.11 and if a close below that line occurs, not only would the flag be negated but new selling interest seen. Probabilities favor another backing and filling week with no decisions being made. CCJ was unable to confirm the mini-breakout that occurred last week, having once again closed below the weekly close 12.08 level that has been pivotal resistance since October. Nonetheless, there now have been 6 different occasions during this period of time that the stock has closed between 11.88 and 12.12 and such a repetitive resistance area has a high probability of resolution to the upside. Nonetheless, it probably will not happen this week given that the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 11.67 is likely to occur this week. The earnings report is still 3 weeks away (Feb 8) and the probability suggests "more of the same" is to be seen until that report is released. Decent intraweek support remains at 11.25 and resistance is at the 2-year high at 12.78. CLF generated another green weekly close, the 4th in a row and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.15 is expected to be seen. The stock has generated 4 green weekly closes in a row 3 times before in the last 3 years and each time within 2-3 weeks an additional 10-24% rally occurred. As such, and if the pattern continues, the stock should rally up to at least 9.90 with perhaps as high as 11.17 before any selling of consequence is seen. By the same token, the bulls were unable to break the intraweek resistance at 9.15 so that obstacle remains as a possible stumbling block this week. The 200-day MA, currently at 9.39, also looks like a possible obstacle but since April 2017 that line has not been all that effective given that it has been broken 4 times to the upside and 5 times to the downside, meaning that it has not been a dependable support or resistance level. The stock broke a bullish flag formation that offers an upside target of 9.79. Pivotal support is now found at 8.32. Probabilities favor the bulls. CRON generated another strong move to the upside (climbed an additional 9% in value) and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 15.19 will be seen this week. The stock is now only $.11 cents from the all-time high at 15.30 and with no reports scheduled for this week and strong momentum to the upside, new all-time highs are likely to be made. CIBC initiated coverage of the stock this week with an outperform rating and a $22 objective. Being so close to the all-time high, the bulls are now committed to breaking that level this week. Short-term pivotal support is now found at 12.75. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls. ENG generated a failure signal against the bears on Friday, having closed above the previous low weekly close support at .76. Unfortunately, the failure signal is not all that convincing given that it was by less than $.02 cents (closed at .779), meaning the bulls not only need to generate additional buying interest this coming week but a green close again next Friday. On a possible negative note, the .80 cent level has become decent resistance given that the stock has gone up to that level 5 out of the last 9 trading days and not broken it. By the same token, the stock did go below the previous week's low this past week and is now showing a possible retest of the .52 cent low with last week's drop down to .70, meaning that the chart could now be fulfilled to the downside and that the bulls will start coming in and buying. Evidently any rally above .80 would be seen as a positive but in order for a buy signal to be given, the .95 level needs to be broken. I do want to mention that the downside is not really much of a possibility given that the company has "no debt" and is presently valued at what the company is worth in contracts and equipment, meaning that it is more about when the upside will occur than if. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. FSLR made a new 13-week intraweek and weekly closing high but having gotten up to 49.38 this past week, some selling interest was seen as the $50 level is being reached. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that this coming week it will likely move based on what the indexes do and not necessarily on its own. The upside objective at this time has been the $50-$51 level and given that this most recent rally started at 38.45 and that a 36% move to the upside has occurred, some selling interest, as well as backing and filling, is likely to start being seen. Support is now found at 47.34 and general support at the $47 level and since the $50 level has not yet been touched, it is highly unlikely support will be broken at this time. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls. MCIG had an interesting week inasmuch as it generated a 1-day drop on Wednesday down to retest the 200-week MA that had been tested successfully once before 4 weeks ago. The stock got down to .1552 and if it goes above last week's high at .209, a successful retest of the recent low at .142 will have occurred and with other Cannabis stocks looking bullish, it would then be likely that buying interest will be seen in this stock. Pivotal resistance is found at .21 and pivotal support is found at .142. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. MDT generated an inside week but given that the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range the previous week and that no further downside was seen, as well as a green weekly close occurring, it can be said it was a short-term bullish sign. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 88.62 is expected to be seen. If that occurs, a successful retest of the 200-week MA will have occurred on the intraweek chart. Nonetheless, the bulls are facing some resistance levels of consequence this week, meaning that further upside of consequence is going to be difficult to achieve. There is minor resistance between 88.65 and 89.08 and then decent between 89.27 and 89.72, which is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 89.68. Without news (and none is scheduled) it seems highly difficult for all of those resistance levels to be broken. As such, I will be considering taking profits at some point this week. Support is now found at 85.30 and stronger between 83.61 and 84.00. There is an open gap between 84.98 and 85.03 that is not supported by news, meaning it is likely to be closed at some point. SLCA is on a roll, having generated the 4th green weekly close in a row and closing near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 14.05 is likely to occur. Nonetheless, the stock is now only .42 cents from an important low weekly close given that the 14.47 level was major support for 6+ years (since 2012) and when broken in November caused the stock to drop to 9.30 and test the all-time lows made in July 2012. As such, it is evident the bulls need some positive fundamental news to break above such a resistance level. Oil has been strong recently and closed on Friday at 53.74, just .25 cents from a decent and pivotal weekly close resistance at 53.99 (55.25 on an intraweek basis). A break of resistance in oil would likely give the bulls the necessary ammunition to also break resistance. A failure of the bulls (red weekly close next Friday) would suggest this recovery rally is over and the traders will once again explore the support below. Intraweek resistance is found at 14.20, at 14.73, at 15.43 and pivotal as well as indicative at 15.72. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but pivotal weeks are always difficult to predict.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .78. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.31 (new price (43.71). 3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.976 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.01. 4) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.51. (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 47.94. 5) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.86. 6) CRON - Averaged long at 9.577 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.90. 7) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0464 (new price .5575). 8) SLCA - Averaged long at 16.85 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.91. 9) MCIG - Purchased at .26. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .1785. 10) MDT - Purchased at 84.20. Stop loss at 82.93. Stock closed on Friday at 87.30. 11) AAPL - Shorted at 157.09. Stop loss at 159.46. Stock closed on Friday at 156.82.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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