Issue #596
Dec 23, 2018
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


NASDAQ Gives Bear Market Signal!

DOW Friday closing price - 22445
SPX Friday closing price - 2416
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6333

The indexes collapsed this past week with the DOW dropping in value 6.7%, the dropping 7.1% and the NASDAQ dropping 8.4%. This was the biggest 1-week drop since 2008 and it has changed the trend from a bull one to a bear one, at least in the case of the NAZ, who has now dropped 22.2% since the August all-time high at 8313 was made. All indexes closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 22396, SPX at 2408 and NAZ at 6306) will be seen this week.

The trigger this week was the Fed's raising interest rates on Wednesday but this was just the continuation of the problems that the Trade War has brought about, which continues unresolved and causing economic problems.

From a chart perspective, all supports built in 2018 were broken and given that there was no corrections of consequence in 2016 or 2017 and therefore no support of consequence built, there is open air below. With the fundamental picture continuing to be negative, especially considering that as of this writing the Government is partially shut down, it is expected that the bears will remain in control until such a time that some positive fundamental changes occur, beginning with a stop to the Government shut down, negotiations with China regarding the Trade War showing some gains, or positive earnings results coming out in January.

It is becoming likely that the downside objective for the indexes could be the long-term 200-week MA lines which in the DOW is at 20668, in theSPX is at 2354 and in the NASDAQ is at 5935. Those MA lines have been unbroken since October 2015 but have been tested twice (Sept 2011 and February 2016) during that period of time and are now highly likely to be tested for the 3rd time. Those are now the clear objectives if no game changing positive news comes out.

The SPX will likely be the first to see the line given that it is only 3% below Friday's close. The NASDAQ's line is 6.7% below and the DOW's line is 8% below. Nonetheless, it must be noted than in the first retest of the line in September 2015, the SPX did break the line by 1.4% while the other indexes did not, suggesting that the SPX is likely to go below the line while the others either simply reach it or fall slightly short of it. Either way, those MA lines are now magnets to the downside.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, none of the indexes show any intraweek resistance close by. On a daily closing basis though, the DOW now shows minor to decent resistance 23533, the SPX at 2581 and the NASDAQ at 6776. These are all the previous low daily close supports for 2018 that got broken this week and will now become resistance.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 22219 and then minor to perhaps decent between 21641 and 21709. The SPX shows minor to perhaps decent support at 2407, at 2356 and at 2337. The NASDAQ shows minor support at 6267, minor to perhaps decent at 6197 and a bit stronger at 6081.

It is evident that support levels are not dependable at this time, given that strong support levels were broken easily this past week and the ones below are lesser in nature. As such, the support levels mentioned above might cause a pause for a short period of time given the oversold condition presently found but given that in most cases the MA lines are still below the support levels mentioned, the MA lines will take precedence.

Some of the selling on Friday was due to the high probability of a Government shut-down, meaning that if that problem is resolved by Monday, a rally might occur in which most of Friday's losses would be negated. Nonetheless, the probabilities are low of that occurring. Either way, damage to the chart has occurred and only with a close in the NASDAQ next Friday above 6650 (which would negate the bear market signal) can the bulls feel that perhaps no further downside will occur.

Probabilities continue to favor the bears this week, especially since it is the last week of the year and most traders will not be present and those present are not likely to be buyers until the year is over.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no mentions in this week's newsletter as the indexes are likely to continue lower but it is likely that 90% of the downside has already been seen. Purchases will be the next course of action but given that this is the last week of the year, it is not likely that the traders will be purchasing anything until the New Year begins. This means that next week's newsletter is likely to have some purchase mentions.

If stocks reach the downside levels expected, I may give some mentions on the message board but since the indexes are likely to close out the month near the lows of the month, it is expected than in January they will go lower, meaning that most (if not all) purchases are likely to offer better entry points in the first week of January than this week.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA generated a short-term sell signal on Friday, having closed below the most recent low weekly close at 36.27. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 35.71 is expected to be seen this week. The sell signal does not necessarily mean that the stock is now in a downtrend but it does mean that at the very least the stock is trading sideways for the next few weeks until new fundamentals, either for the company or for the economy, come out. There is minor intraweek support at 34.90, minor to decent between 33.00 and 33.20, decent at 31.90 and again at 30.00. Below that level, there is no support until minor to perhaps decent but old (from 2010) support is found at 27.00. Based on the high probability of the indexes heading down to test the long-term 200-week MA's, it is possible the stock will be doing the same. That line is presently at 27.47. In looking at the chart of the stock (not considering the effect that the indexes might have), it does suggest that the stock will be heading down to the 33.00 - 33.50 level where it would turn around and head back up to the 41.92 level over the next 4-8 weeks or until new fundamental news comes out. If the 31.90 support level breaks, probabilities will increase strongly that a drop down to the 200-week MA will occur. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

CCJ bulls were unable to generate a breakout this past week due to the strong selling in the index market and in the end succumbed to the sell pressure by dropping 10% in value and closing below the 200-week MA, currently at 11.25, for the 2nd time in the last 2 months and the third time for the past 5 years. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 10.67 is expected to be seen this week. The stock has been more of a stalwart than not during the collapse of the index market but it is now close to a level of weekly close support between 10.56 and 10.81 that the bulls will need to hold if the stock is to resume its upward journey over the short term. A weekly close below 10.56 would extend the period for a return to a possible uptrend by at least 2 months. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 10.19 that if broken would make the latter scenario likely. The 200-day MA is currently at 10.85 and if the bulls can get back above that line and close above the line 2 days in a row, the sell pressure will likely evaporate. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but this is one of those stocks that has more potential for the upside than the downside.

CLB has dropped 52% in value over the past 12 weeks and did close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 58.17 is likely to be seen this week. Over the past 7 weeks, the bears have been successful in not only generating a failure signal to the 7-year rally up to $221 but also given a failure signal to the initial rally seen in 2007 that took the stock up to 77.75 (74.16 on a weekly closing basis), meaning that the fundamental picture has changed negatively for the company. Decent and likely to hold up intraweek support is found at 51.04, suggesting that a bottom to this drop is now in view. Between August 2007 and September 2008, the stock traded between $51 and $77 and that is now likely the scenario that will be in place for the next few months if not longer. Intraweek support starts at 57.10 and the probabilities do not favor the stock dropping down to $51 at this time, suggesting that a drop down to $57 will be seen this week but rallies back up to around the $65 level will occur soon thereafter. This scenario does fit in with the likelihood of oil finding support around the $44 area and a rally back up to $51 occurring thereafter. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but the bulls toward the latter part of the week.

CLF made a new 11-month low and did close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows at 7.57 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to rally on Friday sufficiently (in spite of the indexes closing on the lows) to close just 3 points below the weekly close support at 8.00, meaning that a break of that pivotal support may not have occurred. By the same token, the stock has shown an affinity to following the index market and given the indexes are due to continue lower, the probabilities favor that occurring with the stock as well. The 200-week MA, currently at 6.42, could be the target much like with the indexes. On an intraweek basis, there is quite a bit of decent support at 7.00 and if the stock does head lower (likely), that will be the immediate target. If that occurs, the 8.00-8.20 level will become resistance. Evidently, the 8.00 level is pivotal and resistance is presently found at 8.50 that if broken would suggest the bulls have prevailed at this area. Probabilities favor the bears.

CRON made a new 11-day low and did close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 10.00 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 9.76, which is the low just prior to the report of the merger. Nonetheless, on the weekly chart, there is no support found until 9.26. The stock has not been all that sensitive to the index action but with everything going down it is difficult to find much buying interest at this time. Chart-wise, it does seem that a drop down to 9.26 will occur but that some buying interest will be found there. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 11.81 that if broken would suggest the worse is over. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

ENG made a new 5+-year intraweek low that effectively ended the slight uptrend that the stock had been following since that period of time. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at .65 is expected to be seen this week. On a possible positive note, in 2013 the stock broke out of a 9-month sideways trend by generating a weekly close above .66 and given that from my limited fundamental knowledge the company is in a better fundamental basis than it was at that time, it seems unlikely that weekly close support will be broken. The stock closed on Friday at .68, which suggests that a green close next Friday would be indicative and a lower close at or above .66 would be uneventful. Either way, the break of 5-year support does change the short-term outlook, meaning that it is now all about the fundamentals of the company as well as of the health of the index market. Pivotal resistance is now found at .78. A break above that level would negate this past week's break. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

MCIG made a new 13-month intraweek low and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .1575 will be seen this week. The stock has not acted well during the past 4 months and not all blame can be placed in the fall of the index market. Much of the weakness is based on the fact that the company is not a well-established company and as such would receive more selling interest than other companies, such as CRON. Nonetheless, the stock is now close to the 200-week MA, currently at .15, and given the overall outlook for the Cannabis industry, it is unlikely that line will be broken at this time. Pivotal support is found at .125 that if broken would be a likely "death blow". Resistance is now found at .20 that if broken would suggest the worse is over. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

SLCA made a new 6+-year low and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.93 will be seen this week. The stock is now approaching the all-time weekly closing low at 9.74 as well as the all-time intraweek low at 9.02. Given that oil is likely to be turning around this week after some early-week weakness, the probabilities favor the same for the stock. Minor but possibly short-term pivotal resistance is found at 11.93 but in order for a stronger signal of a bottom having been found getting generated, the stock needs to close above 13.02. generated a red week and a close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.01 will be seen this week. The double bottom at 12.89/12.97 is now considered a triple bottom and likely to be broken, negating all the positives the bulls had built over the past 7 weeks. Nonetheless, there is support at 12.37 and if the bears are unable to break that level, a positive reversal week could occur, especially considering that oil seems likely to generate a rally this coming week. Resistance is now minor to decent at 15.22 and decent as well as pivotal at 15.72. It is evident that this coming week is pivotal for the stock given that below 12.37 there is no support until the $10 demilitarized zone is reached. In addition, the intraweek support at 12.37 is at 12.90 on a weekly closing basis, meaning that the probabilities actually favor a positive reversal this coming week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .68.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.57 (new price (35.76).

3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.976 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.97.

4) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.51. (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 40.55.

5) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 10.80.

6) CLB - Averaged long at 84.38 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 58.84.

7) CRON - Averaged long at 9.577 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.21.

8) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .044 (new price .53).

9) SLCA - Averaged long at 17.667 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.24.

10) MCIG - Purchased at .26. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .1594.

11) LVS - Liquidated at 51.67. Purchased at 51.52. Profit on the trade of $15 per 100 shares minus commissions.

12) CLF - Purchased at 8.73. Liquidated at 8.38. Loss on the trade of $35 per 100 shares plus commissions.

13) CLB - Purchased at 73.79. Liquidated at 72.55. Loss on the trade of $124 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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View Jul 29, 2018 Newsletter

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View Sep 02, 2018 Newsletter

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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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