Issue #595 ![]() Dec 9, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
Trade War Jitters Causes Reversal. Xmas Rally Unlikely Now
DOW Friday closing price - 24388
The bears made a statement of consequence this past week, having generated a negative reversal week (higher highs and lower lows than the previous week as well as a close below the previous week's lows). In addition, the reversals came from previously established levels of resistance (DOW at 25980 from an important previous weekly close at 25989, the SPX at 2800 from 2 previous established important intraweek highs at 2791 and at 2801, and the NASDAQ at 7486 from a previous all-time high at 7505), meaning that this was a clear inability of the bulls to make a statement themselves. All the indexes closed at the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows at (DOW at 24242, SPX at 2621, and NASDAQ at 6945) will be seen this week.
The negative action seen this week was further exacerbated by the fact that the fundamental reason for the previous week's rally (the possible agreement between China and the U.S. for talks about the Trade War) was not confirmed by Xi exactly the way that Trump had stated, meaning that a lie occurred. Making things worse was the arrest in Canada (for extradition to the U.S.) of a major Chinese Telecom company CEO (Sabrina Meng Wenzhou) that is surely going to be seen as an affront by the Chinese. All of these factors put together, suggest that no Xmas rally will occur this year and that the possibility of making new lows for the year is now a high probability.
The low for the year in the DOW is 23344, in the SPX it is 2532 and in the NASDAQ it is 6630 and all of those lows are only between 3.9% and 4.9% away from Friday's closes and with all the indexes dropping at least 6.4% last week, breaking of those lows is now a highly viable probability, perhaps even for this coming week.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor resistance between 24446 and 24569. Above that level, there is resistance at 24622 and again at 24858 and then a bit stronger at 24989 and pivotal at Friday's high at 25095. The SPX now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance between 2672 and 2682 and then nothing until pivotal resistance at Friday's high at 2708. Further resistance is found at 2717. The NASDAQ now shows minor resistance at 7120 and then pivotal at Friday's high at 7205.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows decent and short-term pivotal support at 24122 and then again at the 24,000 demilitarized zone. Below that level, there is minor support at 23823 and then nothing until decent to perhaps even strong support between 23344 and 23531, which is definitely pivotal. The SPX shows decent and short-term pivotal support at 2603 and then again at 2594m at 2553 and strong as longer term pivotal at 2532. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent support 6922, short-term pivotal between 6805 and 6830 and then decent to strong as well as longer term pivotal at 66.30.
Inflation numbers (PPI and CPI) are due out this week as well as Retail Sales. Nonetheless, it is highly unlikely that any of these reports will have much impact given that they are unlikely to be so out of range as to stop the traders from keying on the Trade War. Nonetheless, higher inflation numbers may be seen as an additional negative given that it would suggest the Fed will continue tightening next year. Expected PPI is at 1% and CPI at 2%, with them due out on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
Confidence for a resolution of the negatives affecting the market was shaken this past week given the downward action seen. It is highly unlikely that traders will be putting on new positions at the end of the year as the probabilities would be that losses would be shown on the end of the year statements. In addition, confidence that the Trade War will end soon was also shaken as the meeting between Xi and Trump left more doubt than assurance that a resolution to the problem will be found.
With lower participation in the market due to the holiday season, it seems unlikely that the bulls will be able to garner enough buying interest to stop what now seems a goal to make new lows for the year. Something very similar to this occurred in 2015 where both the SPX and the NASDAQ made new lows for the year below the previous strong correction lows. In the case of the SPX, a new 3.6% low was made and in the case of the NAZ, a new 2% low was made. The DOW did not make a new low but came within .5% of the previous low. If those numbers are repeated this time, the SPX would have a downside objective of 2441, the NAZ would have a downside objective of 6497 and the DOW would have an objective of 23460.
Probabilities favor the bears this week.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
The probabilities strongly favor the indexes heading lower this week and as such, shorts should be the main thing to consider. Nonetheless, in looking at over 100 stocks this weekend, I could not find any that offered a good enough risk/reward ratio to mention. All possible stocks to short have to be chased and under these volatile conditions that can change on a dime any day, chasing is not an option.
Nonetheless, there are many stocks that are oversold and not likely to follow the indexes down that can be considered for purchase under the right condition. This is especially true in oil stocks given that the oil chart now looks supportive and the oil producing nations did agree on a 1.2 million barrels cut back on Friday. As such, I only have 1 mention for this week but it isn't a new stock but one of the presently held stocks. The mention is a purchase of CLB below last week's low at 74.87, using a stop loss at 72.57 and having an 89.00 objective, which would be a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. For further details are found at the Held Stocks Update comments.
Shorting stocks may be a possibility this week as resistance levels are built on the intraday chart that will offer a good enough risk/reward ratios and decent probability numbers. Given that those intraday resistance levels have not yet been built close by, no mentions can be given in the newsletter but will be given on the message board when built and found.
|
Updates
|
Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 9-week high and then closing in the red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 39.06 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock certainly outperformed the index market, meaning that there is continuing buying interest being seen that should step up in a big way once a low to the index correction is found. Short-term pivotal support is found at 38.33 and then nothing until minor to perhaps decent support is found at 36.80. Below that level there is no support until 34.90 is reached but given that the stock gapped up between 34.45 and 38.33 after the announcement of the agreement to market Ralinepeg was made, if the stock gets down to the 34.90 support level, it is likely the traders will go ahead and close the gap and as such, support would then be the mid 33's. As such, it does seem that the 36.80 level of support could be short-term pivotal. On a possible bullish note, the stock has built a flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 31.97 to 42.93 and the flag being the 3-week trading range between 38.33 and 43.15, meaning that if the 38.33 low is not broken and the 43.15 resistance is, an objective of 49.29 will be given. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but the key word is "slightly". CCJ was trading at the highs of the week at the beginning of the week but the selling pressure seen in the index market prevented the bulls from making a bullish statement, which has been expected to happen for weeks. The stock turned lower at the end of the week in conjunction with the index market and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 11.28 will be seen this week. The stock remains in a bullish flag formation with the flag being the rally from 10.19 to 12.73 and the flag being the 5-week trading range between 11.25 and 12.78. Another positive is that the stock has now stayed above the 200-week MA, currently at 11.30, for 5 weeks in a row, meaning that the probabilities continue to favor the bulls for the longer term. There is intraweek support at 11.25 and at 11.17 and then again and on a daily closing basis at 10.73, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. Evidently the stock has been reacting to the index market and may continue to do it a bit more this week, but like with ARNA, the long term prospects for the stock are good and when the indexes find a low, this stock is also likely be one of the purchases the traders will key on. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but this is a stock to hold on to at this time. CLB generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing in a new 8-year low and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 74.89 will be seen this week. The negative action was very surprising given that oil had a positive week (which seems to confirm that further downside is not likely to happen) and the stock did not receive any negative news. The volatility in the stock that was seen this past week suggests that the stock is ready to turn around. This is further supported by the fact that there has been no negative news released for the past 4 weeks and the downgrades that occurred then still have an upside objective of $105. The one thing that did occur this week is that the stock has now reached a level of support of importance, which is not something that had occurred since the previous intraweek support level of consequence $86 level got broken. In 2007, the stock got up to a weekly closing high at 74.16 after a 5-year rally that started in the low 4's. That weekly closing high stood up for 3 years before it was broken and which brought about the subsequent rally to $217. As such, the 74.16 level (on a weekly closing basis) has to be considered a strong and important support level that would require specific negative fundamental news to break. This is a stock that has shown in the past (when a low of consequence is found) a strong tendency to generate rallies of at least $13 to as much as $50 with the average being rallies of about $25. Resistance on the chart, on a weekly closing basis, is now decent at 89.67, meaning that if the $74 level of support holds up (which it should), a rally up to $89 should occur, which is certainly within the purview of what rallies in the past have been. Any drop below last week's low at 74.89 should be purchased this week. CLF generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's positive reversal week and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.67 will be seen this week. The stock has a decent intraweek support level at 8.43, which was the low seen 2 weeks ago and from which a positive reversal week occurred and also from which 4 daily closes in a row above the 200-day MA, currently at 9.25, occurred. This negative past week was likely as a result of what happened in the index market but could also be the precursor to the required/needed retest of the 8.43 low before the traders get back on the buy side. Evidently and if the indexes continue lower as expected, the 8.43 level will become an important pivot point support this week. The traders showed the previous week that the probabilities of lower prices have ebbed substantially and that they are ready to purchase. A rally above last week's high at 9.74 would generate a buy signal of consequence. A drop below 8.43 would be a negative but perhaps not a strong one as there is further support of consequence at the 8.11 level. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CRON received a $2.4 billion dollar payment from Altria (Marlboro cigarettes) for 45% ownership of the company and made a new all-time weekly closing high, above the previous one at 12.61 (closed on Friday at 12.72). The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 13.95 will be seen this week. On a possible negative note, the all-time intraweek high at 15.30 was not broken, meaning that the bulls have more to do to make this event into a true bullish statement. Intraweek support is now found at 10.82 and pivotal now at 9.76. Though the news is definitely positive, it was not about the marketplace, meaning that it is not news that guarantees further upside. Nonetheless, probabilities do favor the bulls, especially given that a new all-time high weekly close was made. ENG continues to trade with no direction. This was the 6th week in a row that the stock has traded in a narrow $.15 cent trading range between .80 and .95. Support is decent and pivotal at .80. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at .81 is expected to be seen this week. Resistance is decent and pivotal .95. Support is found at .80, at .75 and pivotal at .73. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but this is a stock that at these prices is not likely to go much lower. FSLR generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 8-week high and then closing below the previous week's low. This stock does have some sensitivity to the index market and as such, is likely to partially mimic the indexes. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 42.17 is expected to be seen this week. Support of consequence is found around the $40 demilitarized zone and given that there has not been any retest yet of the 36.51 low seen in October, this move down will likely be seen as that required/needed retest. There are 7 previous intraweek lows of consequence between 39.18 and 40.51, suggesting that somewhere in that area the bulls will likely be buyers given that the stock has been showing strong signs that a major low was made and that fundamentally the stock should be moving higher for the mid-term. Resistance is now found at 46.09 and pivotal at 47.79. Probabilities favor the bears this week but buying interest of consequence should be found around the $40 level. MCIG made a new 7-month intraweek low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .1869 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, there was some buying on Friday after the news of the CRON merger and overall that news should be supportive of the Cannabis stocks. Important and pivotal intraweek support is found at .175 (.189 on a weekly closing basis) and that was the area where some buying was seen this past week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is now found at .215. Probabilities favor the bears this week but only for a test of .175. I expect the stock to show some turn around this week. LVS generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 9-week high but then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 52.80 will be seen this week. The stock has been showing decent buying interest but the bulls were unable to offset the selling seen in the index market and given that no retest of the 28-month low made 4 weeks ago at 48.64 has been seen on the weekly chart, this move down suggests that will be the objective of the traders this week. Support is found at 50.82, at 49.28 and pivotal at 48.64. Probabilities favor the bears this week. SLCA generated a red week and a close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.01 will be seen this week. The double bottom at 12.89/12.97 is now considered a triple bottom and likely to be broken, negating all the positives the bulls had built over the past 7 weeks. Nonetheless, there is support at 12.37 and if the bears are unable to break that level, a positive reversal week could occur, especially considering that oil seems likely to generate a rally this coming week. Resistance is now minor to decent at 15.22 and decent as well as pivotal at 15.72. It is evident that this coming week is pivotal for the stock given that below 12.37 there is no support until the $10 demilitarized zone is reached. In addition, the intraweek support at 12.37 is at 12.90 on a weekly closing basis, meaning that the probabilities actually favor a positive reversal this coming week.
|
1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .81. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.05 (new price (40.55). 3) CLF - Purchased at 8.83. Averaged long at 8.94 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.93. 4) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.51. (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.59. 5) CCJ - Purchased at 11.36. Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.51. 6) AAPL - Covered shorts at 172.42. Shorted at 182.80. Profit on the trade of $1038 per 100 shares minus commissions. 7) CLB - Averaged long at 84.38 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 75.00. 8) CRON - Averaged long at 9.577 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.72. 9) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0525 (new price .63). 10) SLCA - Averaged long at 17.667 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.06. 11) MCIG - Purchased at .26. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .20. 12) LVS - Purchased at 51.52. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 53.34. 13) SCCO - Liquidated at 34.93. Purchased at 36.96. Loss on the trade of $203 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|