Issue #597
Jan 06, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bounce Generated. Bottom Found, or Just a Short-term Correction?

DOW Friday closing price - 23433
SPX Friday closing price - 2531
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6738

After a wild volatile week, the bulls were able to emerge as the winners of the week given that they generated a green weekly close on Friday, Nonetheless, they had to generate a 4% rally on Friday, with the help of a surprisingly better-than-expected Jobs report, in order to accomplish this goal. On a negative note, the ISM Index report on Thursday was surprisingly worse-than-expected and it caused a strong drop in the market. All in all, the gain was about 2% above last week's close and no supports or resistances were broken, meaning that it was mostly an uneventful week with the bulls hanging on to a slight short-term edge as the breakdown points from which most of the selling seen in December came from are on the cross hairs of the traders.

On a positive note, the NASDAQ negated the bear market signal that occurred 3 weeks ago, having closed above the 6650 area that represents a 20% down move from the 8313 all-time high. If the bulls are able to generate another weekly close next Friday above that level, the signal given of a bear market will change to that of a sideways market with the possibility still open of new lows being made but with a much lower probability number.

There are no economic reports of consequence due out this week but China and the U.S. will begin talks to end the Trade War on January 7-8 and that could be a catalyst for either direction, if and when something is decided or talks break down. Neither is likely to occur, so the probabilities favor the indexes trading technically with the breakdown points as the target objectives for the week. In the DOW that level is at 23533, in the SPX that level is at 2388 and in the NASDAQ it is at 6874. These are all weekly close resistance levels, meaning that they are not important on an intraweek basis.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW show very minor resistance at 25602 and then nothing until minor to perhaps decent at 24858. Nonetheless, and using the intraday 60-minute chart, there is resistance at the 24,000 level, both from a previous high at 24057 but also from the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 24004. The 24,000 level has to be considered a psychological resistance as well. The SPX shows minor resistance at 2585 and then nothing until 2685. On the intraday 60-minute chart, the index shows resistance at the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 2593. The NASDAQ shows very minor resistance at 6868 and then nothing until 7197. Nonetheless and using the intraday chart, the 200 60-minute MA is currently at 6881.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, all the indexes will now show short-term pivotal support at Thursday's lows (DOW at 22638, SPX at 2443, and NASDAQ at 6457). If those levels are broken, it would suggest a negative piece of news occurred and that would cause the December lows to become targets.

As stated above, this coming week the bulls are likely to have a small edge with the upside objectives being the breakdown points that got broken in December. Volatility (both red and green) is likely to continue as there are still many questions that have not been answered. Nonetheless, with the bulls having been able to negate the ISM Index report with a positive Jobs report, it is unlikely that without new and catalytic news that the bears will have a decided edge this coming week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no mentions in this week's newsletter as the traders remain uncertain as to what to expect from the White House regarding the Trade War. In addition, the economic reports last week where so skewed in both directions that confusion remains the issue.

Nonetheless, I do plan to trade this week as the short-term picture for the week suggests the upside will be explored. By the same token, volatility will continue to be seen and choosing stocks in advance of the actual trading seen does not offer much certainty, meaning that trades will be announced on the message board as trading occurs. Day and short-term trading is the only way to go until more is known regarding the Trade Way and the government shut down.

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2018, as of 12/1

Profit of $7375 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for December per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

AAPL (long) $113
AAPL (long) $970

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

LVS (short) $313
AAPL (short) $612

Total Profit for December, per 100 shares and after commissions $2008

Closed out losing trades for December per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

CLB (long) $138 71

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

NONE

Total Loss for December, per 100 shares, including commissions $138

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 12/31

CLB (long) $262

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

CRON (long) $496

Total $758

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 12/31

CCJ (long) $1

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

ARNA (long) $62
CCJ (long) $159
FSLR (long) $1182
ENG (long) $116
SLCA (long) $1604
CLB (long) $4690
CLF (long) $477
MCIG (long) $57
FCEL (long) $18

Total $8366

Status of trades for month of December per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

Loss of $5738

Status of account/portfolio for 2018, as of 12/31

Profit of $1637 using 100 shares traded per mention.

Ending Results for 2017

Yearly totals:

Total amount of trades for the year = 121
Total amount of different stocks traded = 38
Total amount of profitable trades = 49
Total amount of losing trades = 66
Total amount of trades from last year still open = 6
Total amount of trades from previous years still open - 5
Total amount of months showing profit = 8
Total amount of months showing loss = 4
Percentage of trades/mentions profitable = 40.4%
Total trades on the long side = 68
Total trades on the short side - 53
Total amount of closed profitable trades per 100 shares = $26,002
Total amount of closed losing trades per 100 shares = $10,235
Total amount of commissions paid for the year = $1,737
Total amount of losses at end of year in open positions per 100 shares = $12,393

End result of all trades for the year including open positions:
Profit of $1637 per 100 shares of each mention



Updates on Held Stocks

AAPL fell strongly this past week off of a lowering of guidance from the company. The stock made a new 21-month intraweek and a new 18-month weekly closing low. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 142.00 will be seen this week. On a positive note, the stock dropped down to the 200-week MA, currently at 141.95, and bounced 4.3% from the line, suggesting there is a decent amount of buying interest at that level. In the past 15 years, the stock has only broken the MA line on 2 occasions and the first time was in 2008 when the financial crisis occurred. The second time was in 2016 when the last strong correction in the market occurred and on that occasion the line was only broken by 2.4% and then only for 1 week. The news of lower guidance is a negative but this is a company that has more money on the sidelines than anyone else in the business world and the possibility of the 15-year uptrend ending at this time is extremely low. As such, the probabilities of a strong bounce from this level are high, at least the first time around. Minor intraweek support is found between 138.62 and 142.20, further strengthened by the psychological support at the $140 level. Resistance on the weekly chart is found at 156.65 (minor to perhaps decent) and at the high just prior to the news at 159.36. The previous low daily close before the news came out was 146.59 and having closed above that level on Friday, it does suggest that the bad news has been already factored into the price and found wanting. The low just prior to the news is at 154.23 and having closed on the high of the day on Friday, closure of that gap will be the objective of the bulls this week. Probabilities favor volatility and 2-way action with perhaps a trading range this week or for the next 2 weeks between $140 and $156.

ARNA followed the index action this week and generated a small follow through to the upside above last week's close. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to make any kind of a statement, given that the stock has remained below the 200-day MA, currently at 40.95, for 57 of the past 61 trading days. The stock has broken above the line 3 times since October 5th but on the first 2 occasions the rally above the line was negated the following day and on the last occasion it was negated on the 2nd day. As such, the possibility of another rally above the line is high but confirmation of such a break remains a low probability. Minor to decent Intraweek resistance is found at 42.93 and at 43.15 and decent as well as pivotal at 43.85. Given the outlook for the index market, and the fact the stock has been following that action, a rally up to 42.93 is expected to be seen, followed by a pullback below the MA line within a day or two thereafter. The chart does suggest that at this time, the traders will continue to follow the action in the index market, so refer to that scenario for information as to what to expect from the stock. Support this week is likely to be found between 38.33 and 38.75. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but only for some sideways trading with perhaps a rally or two above the MA line.

CCJ followed through to the upside this past week and closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 11.22 for the 3 time in the last 2 months, suggesting that the bulls are getting ready to make a statement. The stock closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.70 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance starts at 11.95, then at 12.19, then at 12.29 and pivotal at 12.78. On a weekly closing basis, pivotal resistance is found at 12.08 that if broken would suggest a fast move up to the 13.33-13.54 level. Nonetheless, a weekly close above 12.98 would generate a failure signal against the bears on the long term chart and open the chart for a rally to the next important resistance area at $17. Intraweek support is now pivotal at 10.61. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. In addition, of all held stocks this is the one with the strongest bullish outlook for the immediate future.

CLB has now generated 2 green weekly closing in a row, which is not something that had happened since the first week of October, suggest some form of recovery is now occurring. With oil also recovering and likely to generate an additional $1-$3 rally, the stock is likely to continue higher this week. The first intraweek resistance is found at 64.96 and then above that level there is no resistance until 69.50. Nonetheless, these are all old resistance levels from 2008. There are no recent intraweek resistance levels until 79.85 is reached. Even on an intraday basis, the closest obstacle is the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 70.31. Using the same intraday chart, there is a flag formation built on it that if Friday's high at 64.19 is broken (likely), a 66.63 objective is given. In using the weekly closing chart, there is no resistance above until the 69.49 level is reached. The resistance is also from 2008 but being a weekly close, it is more dependable. The stock has shown a tendency to generate rallies of at least $13 when a rally has been established and given that the recent low was 56.72, it would suggest that a rally up to the $70 level is viable. Intraday support is now found at 62.66. Daily close support of some importance is now found at 60.92. Probabilities favor the bulls this week for a rally at least up to 64.96 but probably up to near the $70 for either this week or next.

CLF like with CLB, generated a second green weekly close in a row, which is not something the stock has done since the first week of September. The stock did generate a short-term buy signal on the daily closing chart, having closed above the high daily close for the past 15 trading days at 8.37, suggesting more upside is to come. Intraweek resistance of some consequence is found at 9.15 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, which is currently at 9.25. A rally up to that level is likely to be seen but further upside above that area will require additional positive information. Intraweek support will now be found at 8.11. A daily close below 8.02 will turn the chart negative again. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CRON generated a positive week and a close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 12.19 will be seen this week. Given the recent merger news and mini correction seen 2 weeks ago to build a new support level at 9.56, the chart suggests that stock is just about ready to resume the uptrend and make new highs. The all-time high weekly close is less than $1 away (at 12.72) and with the stock having had almost a $2 trading range last week, there is a good chance a new all-time high will be made this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 13.95 and the all-time high is at 15.30. Support is now found at 9.56. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG had an up week and did go above the previous week's high, meaning that the bears have lost the edge they got 3 weeks ago. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to make any kind of a statement given that a weekly close above .76 was needed to generate a failure signal and the stock closed on Friday at .74. The stock did close near the highs of the week, meaning that the bulls will have another chance to make a statement this coming week. Daily close resistance is now clearly defined at .76, meaning that 2 closes in a row this week above that level would suggest the bears have lost their edge/control. Intraweek resistance is found at .95 and then pivotal at .99. Intraweek support is now found at .65. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

FSLR got an upgrade this week with a $57 objective and a new 11-week weekly closing high was made. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 46.60 is expected to be seen. Intraweek resistance is found at 47.79 and then nothing until the $50 demilitarized zone is reached. Having generated the previous week a successful retest of the 36.51 low seen in October, the chart now strongly suggests that the upside will now be explored with the first obstacle being the 200-week MA, currently at 50.45. Two weekly closes above the line would mean the 8-month downtrend is over. Short-term pivotal support is now found at 41.49 that should no longer be broken. The $50 level is now a clear and likely to be reached objective but on an intraweek basis, there is a good chance the stock could get up as high as the 200-day MA, currently at 54.28, though reaching that level is likely to take anywhere from 2-4 weeks. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls at this time.

MCIG generated a green weekly close, which made the previous week's close at .1549 into a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at .1519. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at .189 is expected to be seen this week. The bulls do have an obstacle to overcome this week as the 52-week low daily close at .182 that was broken in December will need to be broken to the upside and confirmed to give a failure signal against the bears, which in turn would give new chart ammunition to the bulls. Intraweek resistance is found a .20 that if broken would suggest the bulls have the edge back. Intraweek support is now found at .17 and pivotal daily close support is found at .1572. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

SLCA generated a 2nd green weekly close, which is something that has not happened since May of last year (8 months). The stock closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.87 will be seen this week. There is no resistance above until the 13.01 level is reached, which is the previous double bottom daily closing low that was broken and when broken caused the drop to 9.30 to occur. A retest of that area is likely to be seen this week. If the bulls are able to close above 13.01 for 2 days in a row, the 14.47 level will become the objective, given that is the previous 6-year low weekly close that got broken and that caused the stock to reach these low levels. As such, the 13.01 and 14.47 levels are both objectives for the stock, if and when oil remains supported. Daily close support is now pivotal at 10.97. Any drop below 10.38 would negate the recent bull gains and give the bears back control. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .74.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.09 (new price (40.94).

3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.976 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.47.

4) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.51. (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.32.

5) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.57.

6) CLB - Purchased at 57.04. Averaged long at 75.266 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 62.95.

7) CRON - Averaged long at 9.577 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.78.

8) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .048 (new price .55).

9) SLCA - Averaged long at 17.667 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.78.

10) MCIG - Purchased at .26. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .18.

11) AAPL - Purchased at 142.14. Stop loss at 139.65. Stock closed on Friday at 148.26.


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Previous Newsletters

View Aug 12, 2018 Newsletter

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View Sep 02, 2018 Newsletter

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View Sep 23, 2018 Newsletter

View Sep 30, 2018 Newsletter

View Oct 07, 2018 Newsletter

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View Oct 21, 2018 Newsletter

View Oct 28, 2018 Newsletter

View Nov 04, 2018 Newsletter

View Nov 11, 2018 Newsletter

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View Nov 25, 2018 Newsletter

View Dec 02, 2018 Newsletter

View Dec 09, 2018 Newsletter

View Dec 23, 2018 Newsletter

View Dec 30, 2018 Newsletter

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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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