Issue #603
Feb 17, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls Continue in Control! No End in Sight Yet!

DOW Friday closing price - 25883
SPX Friday closing price - 2775
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7474

The indexes generated yet another green week (the 8th in a row) and have now recovered anywhere from 67% (NASDAQ) to 79% (DOW) of what was lost in December. In addition, percentage-wise, the gains this week were the biggest of the 8 week rally, given that the DOW appreciated 3.1% for the week and previously the gains weeke-to-week were 2.9% or lower.

The question now being asked is "why are the indexes appreciating at this rate, especially this week when Retail Sales came in much lower than anticipated and at the lowest number in the last 10 years?" In addition, there were no positive economic news given this week (at least not tangible ones) other than the reports that the Trade talks with China are progressing well. As such, there is a growing trend of thought that the indexes are now in a exhaustion run mode prior to a big correction starting.

All indexes are now near the most recent (11 weeks ago) spike high levels of resistance on the weekly chart. In the DOW it is at 25989, in the SPX it is at 2800 and in the NASDAQ it is at 7486. Up until now, the bulls had not reached a "previously established" intraweek level or resistance where selling of consequence had occurred. The December correction was a straight down event without any buying spikes. As such, it can be said that the bulls have only accomplished a recovery rally that had no intraweek chart obstacles to overcome. Now and this coming week, that has changed as previous levels of intraweek resistance are close by and breaking of these levels will be a sign that the bulls have not only recovered what was lost but have now gained a new advantage over the bears.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent but likely indicative resistance at 25980. Above that level there is minor to decent as well as pivotal resistance at 26277. The SPX shows minor to decent but indicative resistance at 2800 and then pivotal at 2815. The NASDAQ shows minor support to perhaps decent resistance at 7486. Above that level, there is short-term pivotal support at 7572 and then decent at 7637.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 25308 and pivotal at 24883. The SPX shows minor support at 2731 and pivotal at 2681. The NASDAQ shows minor support at 7375 and pivotal at 7225.

All indexes gave a secondary buy signal on the daily charts and that means that the bulls have not yet lost any of the momentum that started in January. Nonetheless, they are now facing levels where the bears are likely to get involved in a big way.

This coming week is likely to be mostly about charts given that on the economic front there are no economic reports of consequence scheduled. The Trade talks between China and U.S. will resume this week but it is not anticipated that there will be any resolution until March 1st when the Tariffs are scheduled to increase. What this does suggest is that the traders will not have any kind of a fundamental catalyst this week with which to stimulate further upside or the beginning of a correction. As such, support and resistance levels, especially since they are important ones, will likely be the key issue this week.

Based on the action last week, the bulls have the momentum in their favor and momentum is a tough thing to stop without a catalyst against. By the same token, it is highly unlikely that any "new" buying is being seen after 8 weeks of straight up action and 70% (average) of the loss recovered, especially with no positive fundamental changes being announced. As such, I would have to say the probabilities favor the bears this week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week as the bears have not yet shown the ability to stop the rally and the rally is now into the 9th week of green weekly close and are at resistance levels of consequence that are unlikely to be broken, meaning there are no worthwhile risk/reward ratios on long positions and low probability ratings on sales. Nonetheless, as soon as something gets decided by trading during the week, I will have new mentions in the message board.

Nonetheless, there is one add that I will be giving in one of the held Stocks and it is on FSNR. The stock has a clearly defined bullish flag formation that got broken on Friday and there is open air above to a clear objective. Using guidelines of breakouts, such as the breakout is not likely to get negated, the risk/reward ratio is doable. As such, purchases of FSNR anywhere around Friday's close at 23.38 and using an intraday stop loss at 22.15 and having a 28.25 objective offers a risk of about $120 for a pick up of about $487 per 100 shares, which is a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. I give the trade a 3.75 rating.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA generated a new 4-year daily and weekly closing high on Friday and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 49.98 will be seen this week. There is still intraweek resistance at 50.05 (likely to get broken) and a bit stronger at the double top generated in 2015 at 51.20. Above that level, there is resistance at 55.70, at 56.40 and at 59.31. Nonetheless and using the weekly closing chart, the next resistance of some consequence is at 54.30 and then nothing until 65.10. It is evident that the bulls are now in control and given the positive future prospects for the company, there is nothing on the present horizon that is likely to derail this bull run. Pivotal support is now found at 46.10 but once the stock gets established above the $50 level, that level should become decent support. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

AXP was a copy-cat to the indexes this week, having generated the 8th green week in a row and a bigger trading range than the previous week. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 108.47 is expected to be seen this week. Using the weekly closing chart, the stock has now generated the biggest rally without a red close in the 15 years that I checked on, given that it has moved up $16.05 (from 91.33 to 107.38) and the previous one of that magnitude was in 2008 when it hit a major low at 10.26 and then rallied to 25.30 ($15.04) before a red close occurred. Nonetheless, as far as the amount of green weekly closes, there has not been any 8-week run over the past 15 years. The stock is reaching the first level of recent resistance at 108.73 that it has encountered during this whole run. From December 12th, when the 108.73 high was made, the stock moved straight down without so much as a single week going above the previous week's high, meaning that as far as recent resistance broken, there was none. This is the first resistance level encountered. Unfortunately for the bears, it is not considered anything more than a minor or minor to perhaps decent resistance area. If broken, the stock could move up as high as 111.77 before encountering decent selling interest. One problem that the bulls are facing is that the stock has gapped up twice in the last 5 trading days and the gaps are not supported by news, suggesting a strong probability of being closed. The breakaway gap is at 104.52 and that should be the minimum move down. By the same token and having traded below the 200-day MA, currently at 102.82, for 28 trading days in a row, the probabilities of a retest of that line are high. In looking at the weekly chart as the stock made a new 10-month low at 89.05 in December, there has not been any retest of that level, and there is no support of consequence on the weekly chart until the $95 level is reached, meaning that being short right now has a much higher probability of success than being long. Nonetheless, it is evident the stock is following the index market so what it does will likely be reflected on the stock.

BIDU was unable to follow the index rally and though a small green weekly close was generated, the stock did go below the previous week's low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 166.57 will be seen this week. Most of the sell off for the week came on Friday as the stock generated a negative reversal day after having attempted to go above the recent highs at 175.35 and 176.89 but failing in spite of the index rally. This is a negative sign that suggests that the only way the stock will go higher above 176.89 is for the index market and the Chinese market to rally. Short-term pivotal support is found at 166.57 that if broken would suggest a drop at least to $160. Stop loss should be placed at 176.99. Probabilities favor the bears.

CCJ had an uneventful week, having generated an inside week and a close only $.03 cents below the previous week's close. By the same token, the breakout on the weekly closing chart was confirmed with a second close above the 12.08/12.12 area, suggesting the bulls maintain their edge. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range suggesting further downside below last week's low at 12.06 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock also closed in the lower half of the week's trading range the week before and no follow through was seen, meaning that the bulls seem to be maintaining their edge. The daily chart did generate 3 green close days at the end of the week and that chart suggests that the bulls will start the week with strength. Intraweek resistance is found at 12.32, stronger at 12.78 and decent at 13.04. Support is now found at 12.06, at 11.71 and likely pivotal at 11.28. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG made a new 2-month intraweek high this past week but it failed to be a statement given that the stock only broke the previous high by $.04 cents and then the bulls failed to close above the .80 level, meaning that the bulls may be getting a small edge but not yet enough to say that the stock is ready to move up. The stock was supposed to report earnings this past week but that date has now been scheduled for March 14th, meaning that more waiting is likely to occur. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but nothing of consequence is expected to happen.

FSLR generated a new 5-month intraweek high last week but the bulls failed to do the same on the weekly closing chart, meaning that the stock remains below the 200-week MA, currently at 50.10. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 48.10 will be seen this week. Likely pivotal short-term support is found at 47.16 that if broken would likely take the stock down to a more meaningful pivotal support at 45.77. The likely reason that there was selling interest this past week is that the stock got up to the 200-day MA, currently at 50.85, and that was the first time that has occurred since June of last year. With both the 200-day and the 200-week so close by together, the bulls likely need some fundamental catalyst to break above those lines. The company will be reporting earnings on Thursday after the close and this is a stock that normally reacts strongly to its earnings reports, meaning that something is likely to be decided this week. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls but earnings reports are usually more of a flip of a coin than not.

FNSR, on a weekly closing basis, broke out of the top of the flag formation at 23.35, suggesting the stock is ready to run up to the $28 level within a period of 6 weeks. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 23.39 is expected to be seen. The stock still has intraweek resistance at 23.68 but given that there has not been any negative news and none is expected this week, the chart picture is likely to dominate and that level of resistance likely to be broken early in the week. The flag formation is clearly formed and given that the bottom of the flag was also a successful retest of the 200-week MA, the probabilities of the chart fulfilling the chart objective of 28.25 are high. I am planning to add positions this week on Monday and likely on the opening, if and when the stock is within a few points of Friday's close. A breakout out of the flag means that the breakout point, which at this time is at 23.35 (on a daily closing basis), will become support and that also means that a 23.25 daily close stop loss can be used. As such, the risk/reward ratio is excellent. As far as intraweek support, that is now presently found at 22.25. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.

IBM continued higher this week and generated a new 17-week high. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 138.16 is expected to be seen this week. There is no resistance above until the $140 demilitarized zone is reached but even though that resistance is decent, it is only found on a daily and weekly closing basis and much more important on a weekly closing basis. Intraweek resistance is not found until 145.45, so if the indexes and the stock generate a run at the beginning of the week, the stock could get up to that level without much problem. I had planned to get out around 137.00 and re-short above 140.00 but decided to stay with the short on Friday. That scenario remains viable this week if there is a small pullback on Tuesday. The bulls are likely shooting to close the gap at 141.58 that occurred on the last earnings report. On another short-term bullish note, the stock closed above the 200-day MA, currently at 136.31, and then confirmed the break with an additional 2 closes above the line. That line is now considered pivotal support on a daily closing basis. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 132.12 that if broken would suggest the rally is over. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

MCIG is stuck in a small trading range between .155 and .185 that has no direction. There are no scheduled reports on the company or on Cannabis and therefore the outlooks remains "more of the same". Based on the fact that the stock has traded above the 200-week MA for the past 2+ years and the line was recently successfully tested, it can be said that the bulls are the ones with the slight edge. Nonetheless, there is very little to go on as far as the short-term and as far as getting above or below this trading range. Minor resistance is found at .20 and minor to decent as well as short-term pivotal at .21. A break above .21 would suggest a rally up to the 200-daily MA, currently at .241. Support is now minor to decent as well as pivotal at .155.

ORCL, like the indexes and other index-related stocks, generated the 8th week in a row of green weekly closes. Nonetheless, this past week the green weekly close was only a gain of 1.4% (versus the indexes at 3%) and that suggests the bull run is slowing down. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to make a new 11-month weekly closing high above 51.58 (closed at 51.72) and that is an accomplishment that has not been made in the indexes yet, suggesting that the bulls have a bit more strength than previously thought. The new high has not yet been confirmed on an intraweek basis as that high is at 52.11 and last week's high was 51.75. Nonetheless, the stock closed on the high of the week and a higher high above last week's high is expected to be seen this week, meaning that the probabilities now slightly favor the bulls. By the same token, the entire area between 51.85 and 53.48 (all-time high) has been a brick wall since first reached in June 2017 (20 months) and that means that the bulls will need help to break through. Pivotal support is now found at 49.82. If broken, it will be a sign that the rally has found a top. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .80.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.99 (new price (49.92).

3) CLF - Liquidated at 11.38. Averaged long at 8.976. Profit on the trade of $726 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions.

4) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.017. (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 49.18.

5) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 12.31.

6) BIDU - Shorted at 174.37. Stop loss at 176.99. Stock closed on Friday at 170.06.

7) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .051 (new price .615).

8) SLCA - Liquidated at 14.06. Averaged long at 16.85 (2 mentions). Loss on the trade of $555 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.

9) MCIG - Purchased at .17. Averaged long at .215. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .173.

10) MDT - Liquidated at 90.05. Purchased at 84.20. Profit of $585 per 100 shares minus commissions.

11) AXP - Shorted at 104.09. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 107.38.

12) FNSR - Purchased at 21.43. Stop loss at 20.28. Stock closed on Friday at 23.38.

13) AAPL - Shorted at 170.93. Stop loss at 175.67. Stock closed on Friday at 170.42.

14) IBM - Shorted at 135.60. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 138.10.

15) ORCL - Shorted at 51.42. Stop loss at 53.58. Stock closed on Friday at 51.72.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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