Issue #607 ![]() Mar 17, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
Bulls Able To Break Resistance, Further Upside Likely!
DOW Friday closing price - 25848
The indexes shrugged off the strong dip seen the previous week to generate a rally that turned out not only to make new 5-month highs in the SPX and the NASDAQ, be the strongest 1-week rally seen in the past 6 weeks, but more importantly, breaking resistance levels of consequence that opened the door for not only more upside but a retest of the all-time highs. The DOW did not participate in the new multi-month highs due to the strong fall of BA, which represents 10% of the index, but did rally as well. The indexes all closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 25927, SPX at 2830 and NAZ at 7714) are expected to be seen this week.
The perplexing thing about the rally was that there was no catalyst to support it. I rummaged through about 6 end-of-the-week recaps on Stock Market sites and the only thing that I could find to support the rally was the following comment: Investors appear to be encouraged by reports that the U.S. and China could be making progress on critical negotiations aimed at resolving a trade war between the world's two biggest economies. With that reason being the same reason given for the rally the past 9 weeks and the economic news this past week having been generally less than expected, it is head scratching as to why the bulls were able to get through the resistance levels that stopped them the past 4 weeks. The one thing that might have helped the bulls this week was that AAPL got an upgrade and generated a strong spike up that broke the 6-month resistance area built between November 2017 and April 2018 and with the Tech Sector also being generally the strongest sector in the market this past week, it is likely that the bulls got just enough ammunition in "a very uncertain market" to punch through the chart resistance levels and trigger stops above.
Nonetheless, the indexes (SPX and NAZ) now find themselves in an area where there is no close by resistance levels built and with no important economic news scheduled for this week, all the bulls need to do is stay above the resistance levels that were broken in order to generate further chart buying interest, suggesting that at least for 1 more week the probabilities favor the bulls.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to decent resistance at the 26,000 demilitarized zone and then decent as well as pivotal between 26241 and 26277. Above that level, there is no resistance until decent at 26616 and then strong at the all-time high at 26951. The SPX shows no resistance close by until minor to decent at 2872. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 2916 and strong at the all-time high at 2940. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 7806 and then again at 7933, minor at 8107 and strong at the all-time high at 8133.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows decent support at last week's low at 25207, which is further supported with the 200-week MA that is currently at 25152. Below that, there is minor but definitely pivotal support at 24883. TheSPX shows pivotal support at last week's low at 2722 and the NASDAQ also shows pivotal support at last week's low at 7332. On a daily closing basis though, any confirmed (2 days in a row) close below the daily close breakout levels (SPX at 2813 and NAZ at 7645) will be seen as a negative.
Having generated a breakout this past week, the bulls are committed to following through and with no economic reports of consequence scheduled, they will need the momentum created this past week to continue to be there. Evidently, all breakouts need to be confirmed and given that the breakouts this past week were mostly on the daily charts, every day this past week will be important as two closes in a row below 2913 in the SPX and 6845 in the NASDAQ will generate a failure signal. In addition, any weekly close next Friday below 2803 in the SPX and 7485 in the NAZ will do the same damage.
Nonetheless, the indexes have open air above with the SPX not showing any resistance until 2872, meaning that the probabilities favor the bulls. Having closed on Friday at 2822, the bulls should be able to rally the index 1.8% more over the next week or two, or until some economic report of consequence comes out, which none are scheduled for this week. In addition, there should not be any negatives comes from the Trade talks as the possible meeting between Xi and Trump has been moved forward to the end of April. As such, the bulls should be in control for at least 1 more week.
From a fundamental basis, it is unlikely that the all-time highs set in October of last year will be broken unless some new and likely unexpected positive change occurs. A trade agreement between China and the U.S. would be a positive fundamental change but given that the all-time highs were made only 3 months after the Trade War began and that no negatives had yet been seen from the trade war, it is unlikely that an agreement would generate new highs. In addition, now that the losses from the trade war have risen into the billions of dollars and likely those will not be recouped after an agreement is signed, and that the economy has been slowing down and is expected to continue to slow down with the Fed predicting we will be back to a 1.8% GDP by 2021, it seems highly likely that this rally will end up being the required/needed retest before a downtrend begins.
In April of the year 2000 when the stock market ended a decade long uptrend, the SPX generated a high of 1552 and 6 months later in September 2000, the index got back up to 1530 before a 25-month downtrend began that cut the index in half down to 775. The 1530 high seen in September 2000 fell short of reaching the all-time high by 1.5%. If we use the same scenario this time, this is now the 6th month since the all-time high was made and 2895 would be the level to be reached that would be 1.5% from this all-time high. I am using the downtrend that began in the year 2000 and not the downtrend that began in 2007 given that in 2007 the mortgage bubble broke and no retest of the highs occurred. Given that on this occasion there has been no bubble bursting and a retest of the highs is occurring, the downtrend from the year 2000 is appropriate. It must be mentioned that in the year 2000, the index generated a high of 1525 the month before going up to 1530 and then the month after, generating a negative reversal, suggesting that this month will not be a negative reversal month as there are only 2 weeks left to the end of the month and it is likely the indexes will close near the highs of the month this month. This suggests that April would then be the negative reversal month. Following what happened in the year 2000, it would suggest the SPX will see a high this month at 2883 and then next month go above that level to 2895 and then reverse. All of this based on charts alone without taking into consideration any changes in the fundamental picture. Adding to this scenario, there is a strong seasonal tendency to generate a correction or a drop of consequence in the first 5 months of the year. In the past, the larger portion of those corrections/drops began in January or February but about 40% of them started between April and May, meaning that the scenario I have painted above is not only based on the year 2000 but also on the seasonal tendency that since the year 2000 has occurred on 15 of the last 18 years.
For this week, the probabilities favor the bulls for further upsidebut once the levels mentioned above are reached, selling interest is likely to increase strongly.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
I do not have any new mentions this week as I still believe that the place to be is short the market but with the breakout this past week, it is likely that further short-term upside will be seen. As per my evaluation of the indexes (see above), it is likely that the following week or the week thereafter will offer great opportunities to short the market so I will wait until then to find stocks to short. I may trade this week but if I do it is likely to be either a day trade or overnight and as so, I will make those mentions on the message board.
There is one stock that I will be looking to add positions to, which is FSLR. Read the update comment for details. This is a stock that not always tied in to the index market and the outlook for Solar Energy stocks has improved and therefore a stock that could easily buck the trend in the market if the indexes reverse downward next month.
In addition, there is one stock (TRTC that I found today that I may be buying this week after I see the action. I just ran into this stock late Sunday and do not yet have enough chart information to make a mention. Nonetheless, I just put what information I did find into a comment on the message board that you can read and familiarize yourself with the stock. If I do give a mention on it this week, it will be on the message board.
|
Updates
|
Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated an inside week and a green weekly close, meaning that the weakness seen the previous week and lack of follow through this week does not suggest a trend change has occurred. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above this week's high at 46.71 is likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless and still on a bear note, the chart suggests that an inverted flag formation is being formed that offers a downside target of 39.70 if 44.56 is broken. Resistance is found at 47.64 that if reached would weaken (but not negate) the inverted flag formation. A rally above 47.64 would a mini bull statement and negate most of the negatives stated above, and give the bulls new ammunition. If the resistance at 47.64 is broken, there is no resistance until 49.65. Below 44.56, there is no intraweek support until 41.50 is reached. By the same token and on a daily closing basis, there is support at 42.25, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only on a limited basis. BIDU generated an inside week but a green weekly close and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 170.95 will be seen this week. For the past 6 weeks, the stock has had a bearish tone to it but if the previous week's high at 173.52 is broken, the chart outlook will change to a sideways or even possibly to an uptrend for the short term. As such, stops should be lowered to 173.62. The stock did gap up on Friday between 168.04 and 168.75 and even though this stock has shown a tendency for gaps, so far every single gap this past year that was not supported by news (this one isn't) has been closed. Closure of the gap will give the edge back to the bears. It is important to note that since December the stock has not participated in the market rally, having only rallied 3.5% while the SPX has rallied over 22%, meaning that the bears are still in control. Short-term pivotal support is found at Thursday's low at 166.15. If that level is broken, a drop back down to at least $160 is likely to occur. Probabilities favor the bulls but only for a small rally above last week's high. CCJ negated the failure signal given 2 weeks ago, having made a new 26-month weekly closing high. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 12.47 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 12.78 and again at 13.04 but having now tested the breakout 200-week MA without breaking it, it does suggest that the bulls are now back in control and that an attempt at the decent 3-year intraweek resistance between 13.36 and 13.59 will now happen. It is important to note that the 12.98-13.36 level on a weekly closing basis is long-term pivotal. A weekly close above 13.36 would be a major sign that the long term downtrend is over and that a sideways trend with a likely short-term objective of $20 would occur as long-term investor short-covering would be seen. Important and highly pivotal support is now found at 11.29. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG generated the 3rd week in a row of a weekly red closes and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .76 will be seen this week. On a possible positive note, for the past 6 months, the stock has been in the process of building and inverted Head & Shoulders formation that is now likely fulfilled as there is decent weekly close support at .76 that should not be broken, especially since the stock in the past 3 years has not generated 4 red weekly closes in a row. On an intraweek basis though, the stock could get down as low as .73 where decent intraweek support is found. Once again, the company did not report earnings though they did report the opening of a new office in downtown Denver. One site had the company reporting earnings this week on the 21st. This is a company that has zero debt so the risk of lower prices is small. FSLR generated a strong turn around to make a new 8-month intraweek high after having retested the 200-day MA successfully a week ago Friday. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 55.66. The bulls have continued to have problems getting above the 9-month high at 55.75 but with the previous week's drop down to 49.06, in which the 200-day and 200-week MA's were tested successfully, as well as the right shoulder of an inverted Head & Shoulders formation built, it does suggest that the bulls are ready to make a statement this week or at the latest the following week. The H&S formation if broken (a break above 55.75) offers a 74.99 objective. By the same token and even though that H&S formation objective seems unreachable at this time, the weekly chart does not show any resistance of consequence until 65.51 is reached. In addition, this Barron's article came out on Friday and it suggests that the Solar Industry has gotten "their power back". The stock did generate 2 red days this past week after the stock reached resistance and it did close on the low of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the downside, with either 52.40 or 50.60 as the possible objectives. Nonetheless, this is now a stock that is ready to breakout and further purchases of the stock should be made on this week's dip. Evidently, any drop below the previous week's low at 49.06 would be a negative sign. Probabilities favor the bulls. FNSR generated an inside week with a green weekly close and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 23.97 will be seen this week. The green weekly close makes the previous week's close at 23.43 into a successful retest of the weekly close breakout at 23.35 and suggests the stock is ready to resume the uptrend. On a caution note though, the bulls had a lot of trouble this past week getting above the 23.97 level, having gotten to 23.95 on Monday, 23.93 on Tuesday, 23.94 on Wednesday and 23.97 on Friday. As such, a possible inverted flag formation has been built on the daily chart that if broken (a break below 23.21) would offer a 22.41 objective that for all intents and purposes would stop the rally. I am therefor raising my stop loss to 23.11. Pivotal resistance is found at 24.77 that if broken would once again open the door to the mention's objective at $28. Probabilities favor the bulls. IBM generated a new 5-month weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 140.33 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls had the opportunity to make a statement last week with the indexes breaking out and they were not able to do so, having still closed below the decent weekly close resistance at 139.70 and not breaking above the most recent intraweek high at 140.45. It is evident that the bulls need for the indexes to continue higher and pull the stock up and that seems to be what will happen this week. An intraweek break above 140.45 and/or a daily close above 140.30 will open the door for a rally up to the 200-week MA, currently at 149.66. As such, the stop loss mentioned at 140.55 will remain in effect this week. By the same token, this is a stock that has shown weakness and only has rallied because of the index rally, meaning that it will continue to be an attractive short to be re-shorted at a higher level if stopped out. Given that my chart evaluation suggests the SPX will be moving up to the 2895 level over the next 2-3 weeks and then generate a negative reverse in April, if stopped out of the trade this week, re-shorting of the stock should be done by the first week of April. Pivotal support is now found at 133.58 that if broken, would give the bears control again. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. MCIG broke down this past week and made a new 28-month low. The weekly close support at .155 was broken as well as the 200-week MA, currently at that price as well and a close near the lows of the week occurred, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .1157 will be seen this week. There is no support below until .09-.0825 is reached. Stop loss orders were hit and is likely the reason that the stock fell 25% in value as I have been unable to find any news that could have generated such a drop. As such, it is possible that the stock will recover this week and not confirm the break. Nonetheless, if the break is confirmed (likely), holding on to the stock is not an option. Last week, I gave you an article that stated that this company is too small to compete against the big companies in the industry and that in the long run is likely to fail. As such, I will be looking for an exit point this week unless the company can recover. A likely pivot point to watch is .125, which was a previous intraweek low of consequence. Probabilities favor the bears. ORCL reported earnings this week and the initial evaluation was that they were less than expected and the stock fell 4.7% before recovering to generate another green weekly close. Nonetheless, the close was still $.03 cents below the all-time high weekly close at 52.97, meaning that this coming week is pivotal as a red close would create a double top that would be difficult to negate. By the same token, the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 53.47 is expected to be seen and with the indexes likely heading higher for the next couple of week, it does suggest the bulls will be able to make a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and negate the reasons for the short having been mentioned. Simply stated, if the stock continues higher this week, this stock will cease to be of interest in the near future as a short. Pivotal support is now found at 51.00 that if broken, would suggest the mention's downside objective of $44 would be "on again". Probabilities favor the bulls.
|
1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .76. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.64 (new price (46.43). 3) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.017. (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 53,71. 4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 12.42. 5) BIDU - Shorted at 173.14. Averaged short at 173.755 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 174.27. Stock closed on Friday at 170.48. 6) MCIG - Purchased at .17. Averaged long at .215. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .119. 7) AXP - Covered shorts at 113.41. Shorted at 106.80. Loss on the trade of $661 per 100 shares plus commissions. 8) FNSR - Averaged long at 22.746 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 23.11. Stock closed on Friday at 23.75. 9) AAPL - Covered shorts at 185.04. Averaged short at 173.12. Loss on the trade of $2384 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 10) IBM - Averaged short at 137.975 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 140.57. Stock closed on Friday at 139.43 11) ORCL - Averaged short at 52.12 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 53.58. Stock closed on Friday at 52.94. 12) AAPL - Shorted at 183.90. Covered short at 183.73. Profit on the trade of $17 per 100 shares minus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|