Issue #606 ![]() Mar 10, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Rubber Band Stretches to the Max! This Week Pivotal.
DOW Friday closing price - 25450
The rally in the indexes came to a halt last week as across the board they closed convincingly red, having dropped an average of about 2%+ in value. They all closed in the bottom half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 25252, SPX at 2722 and NASDAQ at 7332) will be seen this week. Though on the charts this move down had been predicted for the past few weeks due to the resistance levels of consequence reached, it was also fundamentally driven as China reported slower growth, the ECB was forced to continue stimulus because desired growth is not being seen, and here our Jobs report showed a slow-down in hiring as well.
The indexes generated 5 red days in a row but some life was seen on Friday, inasmuch as the indexes rallied from the lows of the day (which were caused by the much lower than expected Jobs report number) to close on the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside. In addition, the indexes all gapped down on Friday, creating a breakaway/runaway gap formation in the SPX and the NASDAQ but then the gap was closed by the end of the day, suggesting that at the beginning of next week a rally to close the breakaway gaps (SPX at 2769 and NAZ at 7499) will occur. By the same token, much of what this expected rally at the beginning of the week will attempt to do is tone down some of the short-term negatives as the bulls remain bullish for the longer term. On the other side of the coin, none of the indexes have yet even reached the first (and somewhat minor) level of established support, meaning that whatever rally is seen will likely be met with strong short-term selling interest.
On a fundamental note though, there are a few reports this coming week that could be positive or negative catalysts. On Monday (before the market opens) the Retail Sales report comes out and if you recall last month it came out much lower than expected at -1.2% (expected was +.2%). Expectations are for it to come out at -.1% and if it comes in much lower than that, the bulls will likely be unable to generate any kind of a rally as the fundamentals will show a strong slowdown is occurring. In addition, this coming week PPI and CPI come out as well as Durable Goods and this latter one is expected to come out at -.6%. If continuing signs of a slow-down are seen, it will be difficult for the bulls to mount any kind of a rally.
This rally continues to be fed by the probability of a Trade deal between China and the U.S. being made as both countries have stated that a deal is close to completion. Nonetheless, some new concerns have arisen after the failed NK trip and as such, the meeting between Xi and Trump to finalize the deal has not yet been scheduled, meaning that the bulls cannot at this time buy in expectations of the Trade War ending.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows very minor resistance at 25587 and again at 25692. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 25888 and minor to decent at the 26000 demilitarized zone. Pivotal resistance is now found at 26241. The SPX shows no resistance close by until minor to decent at 2775. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis there is resistance at the 200-day MA, currently at 2750. Pivotal resistance is found at 2816. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 7484 that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 7479. Above that level, there is minor to decent resistance at 7572 and pivotal at 7643.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows support at the 25,000 demilitarized zone and minor but likely pivotal support at 24883. Below that area, there is no support found until 24122. The SPX shows minor to perhaps decent support at 2710 and then minor but likely pivotal at 2681. Below that level, there is no support until decent support is reached at 2603. The
Both the SPX and the NASDAQ broke the 200 day MA on Thursday (SPX at 2750 and NAZ at 7479) and confirmed the break with a second close in a row below the line. As such, the first course of business for the week, at least from a chart perspective, is to test or negate the break of the line. This is one of the possible reasons for the rally seen on Friday which was positive but given that the bulls were unable to generate a green daily close, not all that indicative of a recovery rally. A successful retest of the lines would give the bears additional ammunition to push lower. As it is, the fundamental news has been negative across the board and at this time the bulls have little fundamental ammunition for anything more than to generate a bounce, certainly not for a sustained rally. This means that the bulls will continue to key on defense (rather than offense) and try to do enough so as to frustrate the bears into short-covering.
Evidently, the pre-opening Retail Sales report on Monday will have some impact and should it be a negative report, the bulls will be unable to even attempt more of a recovery. Should it not be as negative as expected, then a rally is likely to occur with the SPX rallying as high as 2779 and the NASDAQ as high as 7485. Nonetheless, those levels are not likely to be broken at this time and as such, selling will be seen and last week's lows broken with the probable objectives being the 25,000 level in the DOW, the 2710 level in the SPX and the 7274 level in the NASDAQ. If those support levels are broken, the minor but likely pivotal support levels mentioned above are likely to be seen and if broken, a big down week could occur.
The probabilities do favor the bears for the results of the week but do slightly favor the bulls for the beginning of the week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I do believe a top to this rally has been found and that stocks will be heading lower from these levels, at least for the next few weeks. Nonetheless and already holding 5 different short positions there is no interest in adding new shorts. Stocks to purchase can be found but until this correction is over, profits on those purchases are not worth the risk involved. As such, I have no new mentions this week
By the same token, there may be very short-term opportunities that can be traded on either a day trade or overnight. When such an opportunity presents itself, I will mention it on the message board.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AAPL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 13-week high and then going below last week's low and closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 169.50 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and like with the indexes, the stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday and the first course of action is likely to be a retest of last week's high before the traders get bearish on the stock once again. Resistance will be found at the previous high seen the first week of February at 175.57, which should not get broken unless the bulls are able to generate new buying interest (unlikely). By the same token, intraday resistance will be found at 174.23, which is further strengthened by the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 174.19, that is likely to hold up (not broken). If that is the case, the selling interest will resume almost immediately. Downside target for the week is likely to be the 166.46 level. ARNA generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 50-month high and then reversing to close below last week's low and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 44.56 will be seen this week. It must be mentioned that the 51.20 level had been decent to perhaps strong resistance since March 2015, having generated a double high at that price. The bulls were able to break above that level this week, having made a high at 51.63, but when there was no follow through seen, the bulls were quick to take profits. There is no support on the weekly chart until 41.50 is reached but on the daily chart, support is found at 43.06 and then nothing until 41.76. The 200-day MA is currently at 42.25 and given the long term bullish outlook for the stock/company, these levels of support are likely to hold up. Resistance is now found at 48.85, stronger at 50.05 and even a bit stronger (due to the negative reversal seen) at 51.20. Probabilities favor the stock trading for the next 4-6 weeks between $42 and $51 with a decent possibility that $42 will not be seen but that $43 will be seen. If the 41.50 level of support is broken, there is no support of consequence until 36.80. AXP generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 14-week high but then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 106.68 will be seen this week. Like with AAPL, the stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 108.07 will be seen on Monday. The stock gapped down on Thursday from 108.85 so closure of the gap is the likely objective of the bulls as there was no news to support a gap occurring. Resistance is found at 108.47 and stronger at 108.85, meaning that both the gap and resistance are at the same level, suggesting that will be the high for this coming week. The stock shows pivotal support at 106.61 that if broken would suggest a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 103.30, would occur. Probabilities favor the bears this week after a rally to close the gap occurs. BIDU generated a positive reversal week, having gone above and below the previous week's trading range and then closing in the green. On a possibly negative note though, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 158.44 than above last week's high at 173.52 this coming week. The stock did gap down on Friday between 164.90 and 164.71 and given that there was no news to support the gap, it is likely that will be the objective of the traders for the first part of the week. The stock shows no resistance on the daily chart until 168.45 but on the intraday chart, the 200 10-minute MA is currently at 165.55 and given that there is also some intraday resistance of some consequence at 165.50, I would not expect that level to be broken. The support at 158.44 is short-term pivotal because if broken there is no support until the recent 3-year low at 153.78 is reached. If that level is broken, there is no support until 139.78 is reached. Probabilities favor the bears. CCJ generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 10-week low but then closing in the green on Friday. The stock did get down to the 200-day MA, currently at 11.30, with a low at 11.29. If the bulls are able to get above Friday's high at 11.67, it will become a successful retest of the line and new buying is likely to appear. The same can be said about a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 11.09, if the bulls can get above last week's high at 11.86. Given that the stock closed near the highs of the week on Friday that is now a high probability. If a successful retest of the 200-week occurs, it will fulfill the chart to the downside and leave the bulls in control of the stock from a chart perspective. Pivotal resistance is found at 12.39 that if broken would suggest the uptrend has resumed. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. ENG, as expected, went below last week's low at .80 cents but then again only by .01 cents, suggesting that the bears have not regained control. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below .79 is expected to be seen this week. Decent intraweek support is found at .75 and at .73 that is likely to be seen this week but not broken. Weekly close support is found at .80 and at .76 that should not be broken either. Traders are waiting for the earnings report but the company keeps changing it. One site has the report coming out on Tuesday morning but another side has the report coming out on Thursday the 21st. Until the report comes out, the stock is likely to remain in the recent trading range. FSLR generated a second down week in a row and did get down to the 200-day and 200-week MA's, currently at 49.60 and 50.05 respectively. The stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday, meaning that if the stock goes above Friday's high at 51.36 that a successful retest of the daily MA will have been accomplished. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 49.06 than above last week's high at 53.68. Nonetheless, the $2.10 bounce from the lows strongly suggests that the $50 level is now a decent to perhaps even strong support area on a closing basis and if the bulls can get above the intraday resistance at 51.65, which includes the 200 10-minute MA, there is open air above until 54.00. Pivotal support is found at 48.76 that if broken would weaken the bulls hand. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. FNSR generated a red week but the stock closed on Friday at the previous multi-month daily closing high at 23.43 and just a few points above the previous multi-month weekly closing high at 23.35, meaning that if a green close occurs on Monday it will be seen as a successful retest of the breakout point on the daily chart and if a green close occurs next Friday, the same thing will occur on the weekly chart. This retest is not an unexpected event as breakouts usually are tested before new buying is seen. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 23.21 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, it is interesting to note that the 200 60-minute MA is currently at 23.35 and that line has not been broken to the downside for the past 30 trading days, suggesting that even if further downside below last week's low is seen, it will likely be limited in scope and time. There has been no negative news to fundamentally support this mini correction, meaning that the probabilities strongly favor a turn around to the upside and a resumption of the uptrend. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 22.33 that if broken would change the chart outlook. Intraday resistance is found at 23.68 and then nothing above until the recent high at 24.77 is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. IBM generated a red weekly close in conjunction with a 3% drop in price, meaning that the weekly close seen 3 weeks ago at 139.25 is now a confirmed retest of the decent breakdown point resistance at 139.70. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 133.58 is expected to be seen. Minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance is found at 136.65 that is further strengthened (on a daily closing basis) with the 200-day MA, currently at 135.85. Simply stated, at this time any rally above 136.65 would give the bulls ammunition they presently do not have any more. To the downside, pivotal intraweek support is found at 132.19 that if broken would likely generate a drop down to the $124-$125 area. Probabilities favor the bears. MCIG had an uneventful week in which neither the bulls nor the bears accomplished anything of consequence. Once again though, the stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at .15 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock had the same scenario going into this past week and nothing happened, suggesting the bulls and the bears are split evenly at this important weekly closing price at .155, which does include the 200-week MA. Intraweek support is found at .145 but the weekly close support at .155 is pivotal Minor resistance is found at .20 and minor to decent as well as short-term pivotal at .21. A break above .21 would suggest a rally up to the 200-daily MA, currently at .241. I have to say that based on the fundamental picture that probabilities favor the bulls this week. ORCL generated a positive reversal week, having gone below and above last week's trading range and then generating another green weekly close, bucking the action seen in the indexes. By the same token, the bulls have not yet been able to get above the all-time intraweek high at 53.48 or close above the all-time weekly closing high at 52.97, meaning that in spite of the 11-week green close rally, the bulls have not yet accomplished anything of consequence. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 53.13 is expected to be seen. It is evident that this coming week is pivotal as the stock is only $.35 cents away from the all-time intraweek high and only $.20 away from the all-time weekly closing high, meaning that some decision is likely to be made this week. Support is found at 51.57 and then again but more indicative at 49.82. Probabilities favor a rally to the all-time high but it is unlikely a new high will be made if the indexes do not rally as well.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .79. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.58 (new price (45.48). 3) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.017. (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 51.16. 4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.66. 5) BIDU - Shorted at 173.14. Averaged short at 173.755 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 174.27. Stock closed on Friday at 163.65. 6) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .035 (new price .418). 7) MCIG - Purchased at .17. Averaged long at .215. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .154. 8) AXP - Shorted at 106.80. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 107.98. 9) FNSR - Purchased at 23.46. Averaged long at 22.746 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 22.23. Stock closed on Friday at 23.43. 10) AAPL - Averaged short at 173.12 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 177.85. Stock closed on Friday at 172.91. 11) IBM - Averaged short at 137.975 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 140.57. Stock closed on Friday at 135.09 12) ORCL - Shorted at 52.82. Averaged short at 52.12 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 53.58. Stock closed on Friday at 52.77.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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