Issue #613
May 12, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Trade Talks Stumble, Indexes Fall 5% in Value! Uncertainty Reigns.

DOW Friday closing price - 25942
SPX Friday closing price - 2881
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7916

The SPX and the NASDAQ generated failure signals on both the daily and weekly closing charts, having closed below the previous all-time highs. The indexes all closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week' lows will be seen this week. Nonetheless, with the selloff being fundamental one and one that could be resolved easily and soon, the normal chart action cannot be depended on as normally it could. Then again, China's Trade Minister gave this statement on Friday after the trade meeting finished and it does decrease the chances of a trade deal occurring, meaning that the bears continue to have the upper hand.

The lows seen on Friday (DOW at 25469, SPX at 2825 and NASDAQ at 7759) does leave some additional room on an intraweek basis for more downside without generating further chart breaks as the intraweek support in the DOW is found at 24965, in the SPX at 2800, and in the NAZ at 7604 but on a weekly closing basis, last week's lows accomplished a test of them. By the same token, damage has been done to the chart and that damage will increase next Friday if the indexes are not able to negate the break of the previous weekly close highs (SPX at 2930 and NAZ at 8109). This coming week does have a couple of economic reports that on other occasions could move the market, such as Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization on Wednesday and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday. Nonetheless, all reports are likely to be ignored while the trade agreement problems are not resolved. Simply stated again, the market is likely to rise or fall depending entirely on how the trade agreement progresses or doesn't.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW will now show minor to decent resistance at 26277. The SPX at 2916 and the NASDAQ 8133. If those levels are broken, it will likely mean that some resolution to the problem has occurred.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis the DOW shows some likely pivotal support at 25372 but definitely pivotal at 24965. The SPX does show support around the 2800 level and then again at 2776 but the pivotal support is at 2722. The NASDAQ shows important support between 7579 and 7600 but pivotal at 7332.

Nonetheless and like stated above, the market is totally reliant right now on the resolution (or failure) of the trade talks. Unfortunately for the bulls, Trump does not understand (and has no one he listens to that could explain) that China has a different basis for a trade deal to occur, given that dignity is more important to them than economics and to Trump and to us, economics is the most important. As such, reaching a trade deal that is something that both sides can agree on is going to be very difficult to achieve.

Probabilities favor the bears.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I was not planning on giving any mentions this week due to the tremendous uncertainty regarding the trade war with China. Nonetheless, I remembered one stock I have been following since the middle of last year that is relatively inure to the ills of the indexes and that is now within range of a desired entry point and as such, this will be the only mention this week.

CRON Friday Closing Price - 15.40

CRON is a Canadian firm that produces and markets Cannabis. Because it is a Canadian stock it is not as sensitive to the U.S. stock market as other Cannabis stocks might be but more importantly it is in an industry that is growing in a fast way and that is unlikely to be affected by any short term moves in the market, especially when the stock has dropped over 40% in value over the past few months.

CRON in January broke out of a 20-week sideways trading range to make a new all-time high for the 4th time since its injection into the market on July 2016. The stock has already appreciated more than 147 times its initial value of $.17 and is in a fast growing market due to Cannabis/Marijuana becoming legal in many places throughout the world.

More often than not, stocks have a chart habit of retesting the previous all-time highs before starting a new leg up in their quest for the ultimate high and that is what CRON seems to be in the process of doing. The previous all-time weekly closing high was 12.72 and the previous all-time daily closing high was 13.75 and one or both are likely to be tested, though with the strength this stock has shown, it is more likely that only the previous all-time daily closing high will be tested. The stock got down last week to 13.90 but did bounce up $1.50 from the lows, confirming that there is buying interest at the previous all-time high daily close.

CRON did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting the possibility that the intraweek drop down to 13.90 might have fulfilled the downside objective but in looking at the weekly closing chart, a new sell signal was given on Friday, meaning the probabilities still favor further downside, especially given that their sales of marijuana have dropped because of a lack of good quality marijuana to sell. Up until recently, they have been buying marijuana from other growers but given that the market has heated up, other growers are starting to keep their marijuana for their own sales rather than to sell to someone who is more of a distributor than a grower. By the same token, this problem has generated a new desire within the company to build their own crops and that is happening as we speak.

CRON generated a green daily close on Friday but it was an inside day, meaning that it was not indicative of a bottom to this recent downtrend having been found. As it is, the 15.40 weekly close is nowhere near the 12.72 breakout weekly close but Thursday's daily close at 14.09 is close enough to the 13.75 breakout as to suggest the perhaps no new intraweek or daily close lows will be seen but that a weekly close below Friday's close at 15.40 will.

Using the intraday chart, it is not likely that CRON will get below 14.43 anymore but is likely to get back down to 14.69, which will now be the desired entry point. As far as to the upside, there is minor to perhaps decent but pivotal resistance at 17.47. Above that level, there is no resistance until 22.00 is reached. Then again, if a successful retest of the breakout level is or has been accomplished, the upside objective would be new all-time high above 25.10 and using the 3% general rule of a rally above a previous all-time high, it would suggest a possible upside target of 32.51.

Purchases of CRON between 14.43 and 14.69 and using a stop loss at 12.65 and having a long term objective of 32.50 will offer a 9-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA made a new 52-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 53.83 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance above until the 60.00 level is reached and that resistance is old (9 years ago). Nonetheless, there is minor to perhaps decent weekly close resistance at 54.30 and that is probably why the stock fell back almost $2 from Friday's high. The stock did close near the lows of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 50.95. Nonetheless, the previous multi-year daily closing high is at 50.93 and that level is now support and should not be broken, meaning that a daily close below 50.93 should no longer occur. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CCJ made a new 8-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 10.15 is likely to be seen this week. The stop loss I had at 10.51 was triggered, meaning that the chart outlook has changed. I have not gotten out of the trade because the $10 level is a strong psychological support and a bounce is likely to occur from it and a rally back up to at least the 10.90 level, which is where the 200-week MA is currently at, is likely to occur. I will likely get out of the positions then with a small profit. The next pivotal support area is at 9.67 (based on a weekly close) and if that is broken, the stock will be back in a downtrend. This does support the idea that the $10 demilitarized zone is likely to hold up for now as there is no fundamental reason for the stock to go from an uptrend to a downtrend without first going sideways for a few months. Intraweek resistance is now found at 11.18 and support at 9.39. Probabilities strongly favor the stock trading in that range for the next few months but a retest of the weekly MA is likely to happen first rather than the support below seen first.

CPG reported better than expected earnings and generated a green weekly close, making the previous week's close at 3.65 into a successful retest of the weekly close breakout at 3.50. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 4.16 is expected to be seen this week. The bulls are still facing some strong obstacles in the form of the recent 6-month daily closing high at 4.41 and the 200-day MA, currently at 4.32. If those two levels can be broken and confirmed, the stock shows "open air" until the $5 demilitarized zone is reached. By the same token, using the weekly chart there is no resistance above until 5.43 is reached. Intraweek support is now pivotal at 3.47, meaning that stop losses can now be at 3.37. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CVS generated an inside week but did close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 54.24 will be seen this week. It is important to note that a few weeks ago the stock made a new 6-year weekly closing low at 52.81 and that low has not yet been tested on the weekly chart, meaning this weekly red close will likely end up being the required/needed retest of that low. Using the daily chart, the stock broke out of the previous downtrend when it generated a daily close above 54.22, meaning that the stock should no longer close below that level unless this was a false breakout (unlikely). As such, the action seen this past week is within the norms of "normal" chart trading. There is no intraweek support until 52.83 is reached, meaning that the stated stop loss at 54.02 should be mental. Probabilities favor further downside this week but a 50-50 chance of a green weekly close next Friday.

ENG bulls were unable to generate any follow through to last week's failure signal against the bears but by the same token, the bears were unable to do anything either. The .80 level is proving to be a difficult intraweek resistance though in reality that level has been support and resistance many times in the past. The stock got up to the .80 level every day for the past 8 trading days, suggesting that it will ultimately be broken given that it is now a multiple high area. One of the reasons that perhaps the bulls were unable to break that level this week is likely because of the index market weakness. The stock has shown in the past "some" affiliation to what the indexes do. Nonetheless and thinking that level will be broken, there is now a close by pivotal resistance level at .85 and again at .90 that could change the chart to the positive. The 200-day MA is currently at .85 and if that line is broken and the break is confirmed, it will be the first time that has occurred in 8 months. The .90 cent resistance is more important given that it has been the 6-month intraweek high. If both of those breaks occur, it will give the bull's new and more powerful ammunition. Decent and pivotal support is now found at .70, which if broken would weaken the bull's hands. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FSLR generated the first pause of consequence seen in the past 9 weeks, having seen a 10% move down from the previous week's high to last week's low. The stock did close below the 61.22 weekly close level that had given a confirmed failure signal against the bulls the week before. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to rally the stock enough to close in the $60 demilitarized zone, meaning that no damage was done to the uptrend on a chart basis. The stock closed very slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 61.91 than below last week's low at 57.88 and if that occurs, the weakness seen last week will be negated and last week's low will become pivotal support. Probabilities do favor the uptrend continuing overall but a slight 2-4 week pause might be seen.

LNTH made a new all-time intraweek high but did not see follow through on a weekly closing basis because of the weakness seen in the index market. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 26.40 is expected to be seen this week, meaning that the index weakness affected the stock in a very minor way. The daily chart continues to show higher highs and higher lows consistently, meaning that last week's low at 24.19 is the new intraweek support level that if broken would likely mean the uptrend is on pause. Once again, probabilities favor the bulls this week.

MCIG generated a new 41-week intraweek low this week at .0625 but the new low was not confirmed on the weekly closing chart as the previous low weekly close seen 3 weeks ago at .745 was not broken. This does suggest that the selling interest is beginning to wane as the stock nears the downside fundamental objective of .05. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at .08 is expected to be seen. If that does occur, there is a decent chance of a short-covering rally that could take the stock back up to .107, which was the low weekly close that stood up for 30 months. Such a rally if it does occur, could be reason to liquidate the positions as the chart suggests the stock might be in a .05 to .10 trading range for 6 months or more. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

TEVA made a new 18-month weekly closing low but then again it was only by $.02 cents so it was not convincing, especially when the new low was not confirmed on the intraweek chart given that the previous low at 14.02 was not broken (low last week was 14.15). The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low is expected to be seen this week. There is a strong struggle happening in the stock between the bulls and the bears, given that the stock is still in a strong downtrend but recent news and chart action has given the bulls a door to the upside they have been trying to move through. The company has been in the past a very strong and dependable company that has suffered through some unexpected problems with the medicines they produce. The price, compared to where it was 3 years ago has dropped more than 75% in value and fundamentally that seems to be extremely low. This coming week is pivotal as new multi-month lows in conjunction with a red weekly close next Friday will give the bears back the edge they lost a few weeks ago and keep the recovery from happening anytime soon and perhaps renewing the downtrend. Probabilities are 50-50 this week. Stop loss at 13.92 should be maintained but it should be a mental stop loss.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .78.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.18 (new price (51.81).

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.017. (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 58.30. Stock closed on Friday at 59.99.

4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.34.

5) LNTH - Averaged long at 24.34 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 23.18. Stock closed on Friday at 25.50.

6) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .075.

7) GS - Purchased at 202.36. Liquidated at 202.98. Profit on the trade of $62 per 100 shares minus commissions.

8) BABA - Purchased at 178.70. Liquidated at 181.53. Profit on the trade of $283 per 100 shares minus commissions.

9) TEVA - Averaged long at 14.875 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 13.92. Stock closed on Friday at 14.36.

10) FSLR - Purchased at 59.46. Liquidated at 58.47. Loss on the trade of $99 per 100 shares minus commissions.

11) CVS - Purchased at 55.60. Stop loss at 54.02. Stock closed on Friday at 55.16.

12) CPG - Purchased at 3.54. Stop loss at 3.40. Stock closed on Friday at 3.99.

13) ARNA - Purchased at 44.73. Stop loss now at 50.82 on a daily closing basis. Stock closed on Friday at 51.81.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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