Issue #611
Apr 28, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Pivotal Week Ahead. Bulls with the Edge!

DOW Friday closing price - 26543
SPX Friday closing price - 2939
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 8146

The SPX and the NASDAQ made new all-time weekly closing highs on Friday and the latter also made a new all-time intraweek high, having gotten up to 8151 (above the previous one at 8133) on Friday. All indexes closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs are expected to be seen this week.

Earnings and economic reports have mostly been positive and is the reason the indexes have been able to continue the rally that started in January. With few fundamental negatives the bears can use as ammunition, their efforts to stop the rally have failed. Nonetheless, the rate of ascent has slowed in the past few weeks (with the exception of last week when resistance levels were broken), suggesting that the bulls are running out of ammunition for much further upside. The first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter and the end of the important economic reports for the month will end next Friday and the bulls will have to confirm the breakout and continue the rally without any fundamental help. It is a tall order given that without any established support levels below (rally was straight up), the risk/reward ratio will be heavily on the side of the bears. Simply stated, any failure to follow through here with at least a 3% appreciation in price above the closes on Friday will leave the indexes wide open for a correction of consequence.

This coming week AAPL and GOOGL will report on the earnings side and the ISM index and Jobs reports on the economic side. GOOGL is expected to come out at $10.17, which is $.24 cents better than last year and AAPL is expected to come out at $2.36 which is $.40 lower than last year and if both come out as expected, it will not help the indexes much given that it will not show that growth is better than it was last year. The same can be said about the economic reports given that the ISM Index is due to come out at 55 and last month it was 55.3 and on the Jobs front, 200k is expected and last month it was 196k. The bulls must show that the market is fundamentally better than the past results showed and if not, it would mean the bulls cannot support further growth. As such, the burden of proof is on the shoulders of the bulls and not on the bears.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows no resistance until 26769 and at the all-time high at 26951. The SPX decent to strong resistance at 2940 and the NASDAQ shows no resistance above. On a weekly closing basis though, the DOW still shows decent resistance at 26616 and strong at 26743, The other two indexes have no weekly close resistance above.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis the previous week's lows are now considered minor but short-term pivotal support. In the DOW that is at 26062, in the SPX that is at 2664, and in the NASDAQ it is at 7873.

This coming week is strongly pivotal if for no other reason than the fact there are no other reports of consequence due out after Friday for the following month. In addition, the bulls are totally committed to confirming the breakout with additional weekly closing highs because if a red close occurs next Friday it will be seen as a potential double top, which in turn would be the most negative chart scenario possible if confirmed.

It does need to be mentioned that there is an adage (Sell in May and go away) that is based on a strong seasonal tendency for the market to see a slow-down in the beginning of the summer months. Evidently, this market has been unique and as such, a seasonal tendency is not as dependable as it would be other years. Nonetheless, at this time it is still a factor the traders will have to tackle and this week is the perfect time for that adage to be proven or disproven as Wednesday is the first day of May.

Friday's close of either red or green is likely to be the determinant for the next 2 months. There is still the Trade War that will be important but given that a resolution to the trade war is likely already factored into the market, the reaction to the announcement is not likely to be all that positive unless Trump was able to get "more" than anticipated and that is not a probable scenario. As such, the uncertainty that the traders have been functioning under the past few weeks is likely to be resolved by the end of the week. A return to "normal" trading would be the likely goal.

It is my opinion that the probabilities favor the bears but I can easily be wrong on this one.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Due to the uncertainly of the index market and the fact this coming week is pivotal on a fundamental basis, I was not planning on giving any mentions this week. Nonetheless and as I said in the message board, I was going to look for an industry that is not sensitive to the index market and for stocks within that industry that show a positive outlook. The industry that I found that is not directly related to the index market is the Health Industry and I did look at about 30 stocks in that industry. There were quite a few stocks that had attractive charts but were either highly expensive or did not offer the kind of risk/reward ratios that are within my guidelines. Nonetheless, I did find 2 that were of interest and I am mentioning them here this week.

LNTH Friday Closing Price - 25.17

LNTH develops manufactures and commercializes diagnostic medical imaging agents and products that assist clinicians in the diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular and other diseases worldwide.

LNTH has been in business since June 2015 and started trading around the $6 level. By April 2016 it had fallen to a low of 1.76 but then got into an uptrend that carried the stock up to 24.35. A correction then occurred over the following 9 months that culminated with a drop down to 12.59 seen in October of last year. Since then though, the stock resumed the uptrend and made a new all-time high in February, having broken the 24.35 level with a high at 25.12 and since then has been trading in a slight sideways fashion but with a bullish bias, having made just 4 weeks ago another new all-time high at 26.30. The action seen since the first all-time high was made in February has been one of testing and retesting the original weekly closing high at 23.60 and now having done that successfully on 2 occasions as well as a successful retest 2 weeks ago of those previous successful retests with a close 2 weeks ago at 24.15 and a green close on Friday, it does suggest the stock is ready to start a new leg to the upside.

LNTH shows a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the 15-week rally from 13.82 to 26.30 and the flag being the 10 week trading range down to 21.50. Objective of the flag if 26.30 is broken would be 33.98.

LNTH generated a negative reversal the previous week with a drop down to 23.28 but there was no follow through last week as the stock generated an inside week with a green weekly close and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 25.22 will be seen this week and also strongly suggesting the bulls are in control and likely to resume the uptrend immediately. Because of the failure of the bears to follow through to the downside last week, it does make the previous week's low at 23.28 into an indicative support level that is unlikely to be broken and that does give the trade a good risk/reward ratio and probability rating.

Purchases of LNTH at Friday's close at 25.13 and using a stop loss at 23.18 and having a 33.98 objective to be reached within the next 15 weeks, offers a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

TEVA Friday Closing Price - 15.36

TEVA is a pharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures, markets and distributes generic medicines and a portfolio of specialty medicines worldwide.

TEVA began a downtrend in July 2015 from a high of 72.31 that ended on October 2017 at 10.85. The stock then began a short-covering rally over the next 10 months that took it back up to 25.96. Nonetheless, for the past 8 months, the stock has once again shown weakness and got into a mid-term downtrend that took the stock down to 14.59 where a bounce occurred. Two weeks ago that 14.59 low was broken with a drop down to 14.38 and a new 17-week weekly closing low at 14.36, below the previous one at 15.10. Nonetheless, the company received good news last week when the FDA approved a generic nasal spray drugs to combat Opioid overdose and on Friday the stock negated the previous week's break of support with a close at 15.36, suggesting the stock has seen its low and that a new uptrend is likely to occur. In addition, this is one of top 3 drug companies that the Motley Fool mentioned yesterday.

TEVA closed on the highs of the week and further upside above 15.36 is expected to be seen. There is some minor resistance at 15.43 that should be broken on Monday and there is no other resistance above until minor resistance is found at 16.31. The pivotal longer term resistance is found at 17.13 that represents a 2-month high. Nonetheless, on the weekly chart, there is no resistance of consequence until the $20 demilitarized zone is reached, strongly suggesting that is now the objective for the short-term. There is quite a bit of resistance from there and up to the 25.96 level but if in fact the recent low weekly close is in fact a successful retest of the October 2017 weekly closing low at 11.40, it would open the door for the stock to begin a journey to the 200-week MA, currently at 35.21. It is a journey that could take as long as a year to accomplish but would mean the investment could be doubled over that period of time.

The most interesting aspect of this trade is that with the news and the negation of the recent break of weekly close support, the risk factor is clearly defined by the recent low at 14.36, meaning that a purchase at Friday's close at 15.36 only offers a $1 risk factor compared with a profit potential of at least $5 to as much as $15 dollars, making the trade into a must do.

Purchase of TEVA at Friday's closing price at 15.36 and using a 14.25 stop loss and having at $20 objective offers a risk/reward ratio of 4-1.

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

I have no other mentions this week but do expect to have several (if not many) next week.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA bears were unable to generate any follow through to the previous week's close on the low of the week, having generated an inside week and a green weekly close near the high of the week on Friday, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 47.07 will be seen this week. The green weekly close means that the close seen 2 weeks ago at 44.06 is now a successful retest of the previous low weekly close at 43.23 and it does suggest the bears have lost a measure of short-term control and that the traders are waiting for news or some sign from the index market as to new direction. It does suggest that until one or the other comes out or is decided that the stock will trade between 44.00 and 48.50. A break above 49.54 or below 42.48 will be indicative but otherwise it is likely to be sideways trading until news comes out.

BABA has traded in a narrow 4% sideways trading range between 182.56 and 189.79 for the past 3 weeks without direction being clearly defined. With the indexes making new highs every week during the past 3 weeks, it does suggest that the traders are not as bullish on the stock as they are in the index market and it does open the door for selling interest this week if the indexes fail to make new highs and drag the stock up. The company reports earnings on the 15th of next month and it may be the reason why the stock is doing little, awaiting news. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 188.74 will be seen this week, suggesting the bulls have the edge. There is now established resistance at 189.79 and more and a bit stronger between 191.22 and 191.75, meaning that it is unlikely those levels will be broken without index or earnings report help. Pivotal support is now clearly established at 182.56. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CCJ generated a short-term sell signal on all charts, having broken intraweek below 11.29 and having closed below the daily and weekly closing supports at 11.50 and 11.53. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 11.09 is expected to be seen this week. This action does put the future in doubt as well as whether the long term uptrend will remain by staying above the 200-week MA, currently at 10.93. By the same token, until such a time that the stock generates a confirmed break below the MA line, all that is suggestive of the short-term sell signal that was given this week is that the probabilities of the stock resuming the uptrend anytime soon have now gone down or at least extended to the future by a couple of months. In looking back over the past 8 years, there does seem to be a pattern of the stock selling off around May and not recovering until July and in some cases not until October, meaning that consideration should be given to taking profits and looking to rebuy later on in the year. Evidently, if the 200-week MA is broken, immediate consideration should be given to liquidation but if not, a bounce should occur, at least up to the 11.50 level, and at that time consideration should be given. It is clearly evident by the break of support that the stock is unlikely to do anything of great consequence to the upside for at least the next 2 months.

ENG was unable to follow through to the upside off of the previous week's close on the high of the week and did generate a red weekly close that keeps the bears with the edge. Nonetheless, the red weekly close was only by $.03 and not a clear statement, considering the fact that a bullish flag formation remains with the flagpole being the 12-day rally from .48 to .70 and the flag being the 8-day trading range down to .60. This means that the .60 level is short-term pivotal support and the .70 level is the opposite. Volume has remained low, meaning that there is not much interest at this time in trading the stock in either direction. Probabilities favor more of the same this week.

FSLR generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing above the previous week's high, suggesting the uptrend continues in full bloom. In addition, a failure signal against the bears was given when the stock closed on Friday above the 61.22 low weekly close that held up for 6 month in the early part of 2018 and that when broken caused the stock to drop down to the $35 level. This failure signal if confirmed, would suggest a minimum rally up to the $65 level where "minor" resistance is found but would likely mean the stock ultimately and over a period of 3 months could get up as high as the $70 level before any strong selling would occur. Pivotal support is now found at 59.40 that should not be seen anytime soon. Probabilities favor the bulls.

IBM generated an inside week but did close in the red and below the important weekly close support at 139.70. Nonetheless, the bears need to confirm the break of support with another red weekly close next Friday before the traders go "full hog" into short positions. Given the pivotal fundamental nature of this coming week, there are no assurances for either side. By the same token, based on the weekly close and break of support, which was against what the index market did, the edge is now on the side of the bears. Intraweek resistance is now found at 141.31 that if broken would suggest the bulls are "back in the saddle", meaning that the stop loss will now be at 141.41 and it will be a hard stop. There is support at 136.26 that should be pivotal but given that the 200-day MA is currently at 135.48, a break of that support is not all that indicative of future direction. Nonetheless, a break of the intraweek support at 135.09 would be. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but since it is a fundamentally pivotal week for the market, the probabilities are slight.

MCIG made a new 30-month low and for all intents and purposes has broken down totally, meaning the future is now up in the air. A fundamental evaluation that I read states the stock is likely to trade between .05 and .08 cents for the next 3 months and the chart supports that scenario. Nonetheless, this is now a stock that can only be considered as a buy and hold stock if you believe the future of Cannabis stocks is bright and believe this company can participate in that market successfully, which at this time does not seem to be highly likely. I do not have many shares of the stock so I have chosen to keep the stock as a buy and hold but see no benefit for anyone to hold the stock for the short or even mid-term. Simply stated, this is a low probability-of-success stock. As such, I will carry the stock on the monthly results page of the newsletter but will not mention the stock on the weekly newsletter unless something of consequence occurs in either direction.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .66.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.69 (new price (46.88).

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.017. (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.54.

4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 10.51. Stock closed on Friday at 11.25.

5) AXP - Covered shorts at 117.52. Averaged short at 110.47. Loss on the trade of $1410 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.

6) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .075.

7) IBM - Averaged short at 143.015 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 141.46. Stock closed on Friday at 139.44.

8) BABA - Shorted at 178.08. Stop loss now at 191.85. Stock closed on Friday at 187.09.

9) IBM - Purchased at 138.12. Liquidated at 141.80. Profit on the trade of $736 (2 mentions) minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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