Issue #627 ![]() Aug 25, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls Fail, Bears in Control!
DOW Friday closing price - 25628
The indexes did much the same as the previous week, inasmuch as another red weekly close occurred (the 4th in a row). Nonetheless and contrary to the previous 2 weeks, the indexes fell (rather than rallied) at the end of the week to close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week (DOW at 25507, the SPX at 2834 and the NASDAQ at 7730). The failure to rally at the end of the week suggests that the bulls may have given up in trying to overcome all the negatives seen the past few weeks.
As mentioned the previous week, the indexes have built a bearish inverted flag formation that seems likely to be broken this week as the bottom of the flag in the DOW is at 25339, in the SPX it is at 2722 and in the NASDAQ it is at 7662 and those levels are only 269 points lower in the DOW, only 25 points lower in the SPX and 89 points lower in the NAZ below Friday's closes. Given that the indexes have seen wide trading ranges in the past 3 weeks (average of 982 points in the DOW, 113 points in the SPX and 348 points in the NAZ), it is likely that kind of a fall will be seen this week. It is only a fall of 1% in value in trading ranges that have been mostly between 3% and 4% weekly. Such a fall, will trigger the flag and give downside objectives of 24367, 2738, and 7388 respectively.
More importantly and based on Friday's events where both China and the U.S. announced further escalation of the trade war, it seems highly unlikely that traders will be buyers at this time since there are no possibly positive catalytic events scheduled for this week.
The downside objectives of the inverted flag formation are certainly possible given that there is no support of consequence nearby below. The downside objective in the DOW could be a problem as there is decent intraweek support at 24680 and reaching the objective at 24367 would mean a break of that pivotal support and that is not likely to happen before the Fed rate announcement on September 16. Nonetheless, in the SPX the objective is 2738 and the pivotal support is at 2728 and in the NASDAQ the objective is 7388 and the pivotal support is at 7292, suggesting the DOW might not fulfill the downside objective but the other two indexes likely will. As it is, the DOW is no longer the index the traders follow closely.
There is one obstacle that might create a problem for the bears and that is the 200-day MA's. In the DOW it is at 25620, in the SPX it is at 2802 and in the NASDAQ it is at 7592. This does create a quandary for the traders as those MA lines have not been broken for more than a day or two since February and will not be easy to break on a closing basis. Then again, it is now highly likely that the lines will be at least reached and broken for at least 1 o 2 days (in the DOW for longer).
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW does not show anything but very minor resistance at 25,817 and at the 26,000 demilitarized zone. The SPX is the same with minor resistance at 2860 and then at 2892 and the NASDAQ the same at 7850 and at 7946.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows support at 25,440 and short term pivotal at 25339. Below that, there is support at 25,208/25,228 and then nothing until 24899. Further and pivotal support is found at 24680 and then at nothing until 24122. The SPX now shows minor to perhaps decent and likely short-term pivotal support between 2822 and 2825. Below that, there is decent support around the 2800 demilitarized zone. Further and pivotal support is found at 2728 and minor at 2710. The NASDAQ shows short term pivotal support at 7662 and then nothing until 5697. Further support is found at 7600 and then nothing until decent down around 7332.
The charts and the fundamental picture all support lower prices this week with the only question being by how much. The recent lows and bottom of the flag formation are likely to offer some automatic buying interest but given that there is no previously established support at those levels, the probabilities favor them getting broken. If they do get broken, there will likely be new selling interest and the 200-day MA's in the SPX and NASDAQ will be targeted and likely broken for at least one or two days. The index to watch closely this week is the SPX as a clear downside target for this week is 2785, which is 59 points below last week's low. Given that the index has been averaging 113 point trading ranges the last 3 weeks and that is likely to continue, it does open the door for the index to get up to as high as the resistance at 2892. That also means that if the indexes head lower immediately and the 2785 level is broken and the flag objective at 2738 is to be reached this week, it would mean the high for the week could be 2850. Those are likely to be the only questions asked this week.
The last time that this type of correction occurred, the indexes generated 4 red weekly closes with the 5th week being a positive reversal week and that is certainly a possibility for this coming week. A break of the bearish flag and a drop down to the objectives of the flag at the beginning of the week could mean a recovery seen toward the end of the week based on the fact that next week the big economic reports for the month (ISM Index and Jobs reports) come out and 2 weeks later the Fed rate decision. This scenario opens the door for traders fulfilling the downside chart objectives and then starting to anticipate the reports due out as being positive for the market. As such and if this scenario is seen, liquidation of short positions and possibly some purchases can be considered.
The only thing that can be depended on is volatility and big trading ranges and given those, it could be a wild week with selling pressure at the beginning of the week and recovery at the end of the week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week given the potential for this being a positive reversal week but then "only if" the downside objectives are reached early in the week and that requires a lot of selling at the beginning of the week, not something that can be speculated on dependably. By the same token, this could be a week of opportunity to purchase short-term (1-3 weeks), if and when the scenario outlined above is fulfilled.
There are several stocks I would be willing to re-purchase back if this scenario is seen and those are ARNA below $50 (hopefully below $49) with a stop loss at 46.25, JD below 28.00 with a stop loss at 25.67 and FSLR below 58.00 with a stop loss at 56.44.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AAPL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3 week high and then turning around to close in the red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 201.00 will be seen this week. The stock traded 85% of the week above the pivotal weekly close resistance at 207.74 only to fall in the last 5 hours of trading on Friday below that level. The inability of the bulls to stay and close above that level though trading above it most of the week, suggests that the upside attempts are now over and that the downside will now be explored. There is minor but clearly short-term pivotal support at 199.67 and it has a bit of importance as it also represents the psychological support at the $200 demilitarized zone. Below that level and on the daily chart, there are very minor supports at 198.41 and at 195.29 but on the weekly chart there is also some very minor support at 198.41 that if broken suggests the recent low at 192.58 will be seen. If that level is broken, there is no support below until the $180 level is reached. A weekly close next Friday below 200.92 would make the $180 level a viable and likely downside objective. To the upside, there is intraweek resistance at 208.48 and on a weekly closing basis, yet pivotal at 207.74. Probabilities favor the bears. ARNA generated a negative reversal week as well as a new 3-month weekly closing low, suggesting the recent downtrend continues. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 53.46 is expected to be seen this week. The recent intraweek low at 51.14 is considered support but the probabilities favor that level being broken and a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 49.09, seen. On an intraweek basis, there is support at 47.92 and at 47.00 that if broken would suggest the uptrend is over or at least paused until new fundamental news comes out. On a weekly closing basis, there is important support at 50.93 that seems unlikely to get broken as it would generate a failure signal and given the fundamental outlook for the stock, that seems unlikely to happen. As such, this week could be a buying opportunity on drops near the $49 level using a stop loss at 46.65. Upside objective remains the $65-$67 level. To the upside, last week's high at 58.43 is now pivotal resistance that if broken would put the stock back on the uptrend. Probabilities favor the bears this week but it could be a good buying opportunity. AU made a new 6+-year intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 22.77 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until the $30-$31 level is reached but even then that resistance is more than 17 years old. There is however a 2-point trend line using previous highs over the past 5 years that connects around 25.85 and on a weekly closing basis, that may be the short-term objective. On a weekly closing basis, the previous high weekly close at 21.91 will now be support. On an intraweek basis, there is no support until 1998 is reached. Stop loss can now be raised to 19.65. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls. BABA generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 163.83 will be seen this week. In addition and more importantly, if the stock does go below last week's low, it will make last week's high at 178.80 into a successful retest of the recent 15-week high at 179.88 and give the bears new ammunition for lower prices. Like the indexes, the stock is also showing a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 197.72 to 147.95 and the flag the 15-week trading range back up to 179.88. A break below the bottom of the flag at 147.95 would give an objective of 132.11. This is certainly a viable objective given that the 200-week MA is currently at 137.53 and the December low is at 129.83. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek support is found at 151.85 and then nothing until decent and pivotal support is found at 147.95. Minor to decent resistance will now be found at 168.80. Probabilities strongly favor the bears this week. CRON continued the recent downtrend, having made yet another multi-month intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 11.36 is expected to be seen. Using the chart, there is no support below until the $10 level is reached so it must be assumed that without fundamental news, that is the objective. Nonetheless, there is decent support at the $10 demilitarized zone not only from previous intraweek lows and closes but also from the 100-week MA, currently at 10.28. There is pivotal intraweek support at 9.57 that should not get broken unless there is a fundamental problem to the stock or to the Cannabis industry (unlikely on both counts). To the upside, intraweek resistance will now be found at 12.00, at 13.00, at 13.95 and at 15.30. Probabilities now suggest the stock will trade between the $10 and $15 level for the next few months. Probabilities favor the bears this week. ENG generated an uneventful inside week but did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 1.10 is expected to be seen this week. The stock did close $.01 below the 200-week MA, currently at 1.16, but that is not indicative unless another red close occurs next Friday. Intraweek support and resistance are found at the previous weeks high and low at 1.33 and at 1.03. A break of either will give one side or the other the edge. Bulls have accomplish much during the last few month with the stock more than doubling in price and that means the bulls remain with the edge. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but the bulls at the end of the week. ENTG generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high and then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 41.24 will be seen this week. The negative reversal negated the previous week's positive reversal and in favor of the bears, if the stock does go below last week's low this week, a successful required/needed retest of the all-time high at 45.12 (43.98 on a weekly closing basis) will occur and that will open the door for the downside. Pivotal support is found at the previous week's low at 39.78 that if broken would leave no established support below until 37.55 and even then that support is considered minor. Nonetheless, the $38 level is support of consequence on a weekly closing basis as it was the previous all-time weekly closing high (at 38.28) that is additionally supported by 2 other closes in that area. If that level is broken, drops down to $36 and perhaps even $34 would become possible. For the time being, any drop down to the $38 should be considered for covering the short positions and looking to re-short subsequent rallies. To the upside, a rally above last week's high at 43.43 would now be reason to cut losses. Probabilities favor the bears. FNV generated yet another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high this week and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 97.00 will be seen this week. The stock is now reaching the psychological resistance at $100 and the general resistance $3 above and below that level. The stock has now built a new intraweek support at 91.00. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls. MDT reported earnings and they were much better than expected and the stock made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high at 109.70 and 106.05 respectively. Nonetheless, the stock did fall back to close in the lower half of the week's trading range (below 106.54) and that opens the door for last week's high being a spike high for some time. The stock did gap up on Monday with the earnings report and closure of the gap down at 104.43 would give the bears some ammunition as this was a gap supported by news and closure of it would be a negative. The previous all-time high daily close is 103.75 and a close below that level would generate a failure signal that would be further supported if next Friday the stock closes below 102.55 (previous all-time high weekly close). Both of these must happen this week so that the probabilities of a spike high top are increased. Indicative resistance is found at 108.31 and more so at last week's high at 109.70. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 100.63. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but based on last week's action and the earnings reports, this week the stock must be monitored closely and the shorts covered if the bulls regain control at some point during the week. SRUTF confirmed the failure signal given the week before with another red weekly close and closing near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .31 will be seen this week. The stock is now reaching a level at .30 where the rally to .67 began and if that level is broken, it will negate all the rally seen the past 5 months. It is unlikely to occur given that there has not been any news affecting the company itself, suggesting that some recovery could start to be seen this week with .377 as the intraweek upside objective. For now, the probabilities favor the stock trading between .30 and .37 for the next 1-3 months or until favorable news for the Cannabis industry comes out. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.15. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.37 (new price (53.73). 3) FSLR - Liquidated at 64.52. Averaged long at 43.835. Profit on the trade of $4157 per 100 shares (2 mentions)minus commissions. 4) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .060. 5) AAPL - Shorted at 213.15. Averaged short at 201.442 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 202.64. 6) ENTG - Shorted at 42.62. Averaged short at 42.605 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 45.35. Stock closed on Friday at 41.49. 7) FNV - Averaged long at 88.205 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 90.65. Stock closed on Friday at 96.52. 8) BABA - Shorted at 178.13. Stop loss at 180.35. Stock closed on Friday at 164.54. 9) CRON - Averaged long at 14.033 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.40. 10) AU - Averaged long at 18.86 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 21.81 on a weekly closing basis. Stock closed on Friday at 22.53. 11) MDT - Shorted at 102.35. Stop loss now at 110.35. Stock closed on Friday at 106.05. 12) JD - Liquidated at 32.04. Averaged long at 26.13. Profit on the trade of $1182 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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