Issue #620
Jul 7, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls in Control but Battle Ground in Place!

DOW Friday closing price - 26922
SPX Friday closing price - 2990
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 8161

It was an impressive week for the indexes given that the DOW and the SPX made new all-time intraweek and weekly closing prices and then closed on or near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (26966 and 2995 respectively) will be seen this week. The NASDAQ was not able to accomplish either but did close within 15 points of each and given that it closed on the highs of the week, it is expected that the same will be seen (as with the other indexes) this week.

Nonetheless, the outlook mentioned the past 2 weeks has not changed much to the positive given that with the exception of the Jobs report, the ISM Index and Factory orders both came in lower than expected and even the Jobs report gave a negative connotation given that it came higher than expected but meaning that the Fed is likely to be less aggressive in lowering interest rates. In addition, most of the reports the past 3 weeks have leaned toward an economic slowdown which is not supportive to higher index prices. The positive action that is being seen is mostly due to momentum and the "desire and commitment" to higher prices that is felt, given that this rally is already the longest ever seen and the subsequent belief of continuing the rally until such a time that proof to its end has occurred.

The indexes are now facing the start of the next earnings report quarter that begins a week from Monday on July 15. The first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter have proven to be mostly beneficial to the bulls during the past 10 years since the uptrend began. Nonetheless, it was reported last week on Bloomberg.com that 90% of the companies have lowered their earnings estimates for this quarter, meaning it is going to be difficult for companies to continue to beat estimates as they have done in the past, in spite of the lowering of those estimates. Bottom line is that when the first 3 weeks of earnings are over, it is more likely that overall growth is less than it has been in the past and even less than it was last year in October when the previous all-time highs were made, meaning that from an earnings perspective, new all-time highs are not likely to be supported fundamentally.

For this week though, there is nothing scheduled regarding U.S. economic reports other than PPI and CPI and neither of those are likely to be so-out-of-line as to be a catalyst for the market. By the same token, if they come in lower than expected it will give the Fed more reason to lower interest rates and vice versa, suggesting that it could be a small catalyst. Given that there is nothing fundamental that is likely to give the bears ammunition, I would venture to say that the bulls will at least be able to maintain the indexes around the previous all-time highs or slightly above. By the same token and as mentioned last week, the SPX has made 4 new all-time highs in the last 18 months and in the previous 3 occasions, the new highs did not bring in new buying interest and within 1-3 weeks a correction of consequence occurred. The first time it was a 9.7% correction, the second time it was a 19.7% correction and the third time it was a 7.7% correction, suggesting a pattern that based on the fundamental picture is likely to continue. It also must be mentioned that in the DOW and SPX those indexes are facing strong psychological resistances at 27,000 and at 3,000 and those kinds of psychological resistance normally need positive news to break. That kind of news will not be available this week.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows no resistance other than psychological between 26970 and 27,030. The SPX shows no resistance above other than psychological as well at the 3,000 demilitarized zone. The NASDAQ shows intraweek as well as daily/weekly close resistance at 8176. Above that level, there is only "general" resistance at 8300 (300 points above a psychological resistance).

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor but pivotal support at Thursday's low at 26465 and then again at 26310 and minor again at 25958. Below that, there is support at 25372 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 25446. The SPX shows minor but likely pivotal support at 2912, again at 2900 and then again between 2860 and 2874. Below that support, there is no support until decent support at 2800 and then on a daily closing basis at 2775, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. The NASDAQ shows minor but pivotal support at Thursday's low at 7867, very minor support at 7912 and again at 7873. Below that level, there is minor but short-term pivotal support at 7773 and then nothing until decent support between 7600 and 7627.

The indexes did initially react negatively to the Jobs report on Friday and then recovered enough to close in the upper half of the day's trading ranges and near the highs of the week, suggesting follow through above Friday's highs on Monday. If the indexes do go above Friday's highs on Monday, Friday's lows will become short-term pivotal support that if broken would likely generate some decent selling or profit taking interest, meaning that the bulls would be mostly on the defensive side. Those lows were in the DOW at 26733, in the SPX at 2967 and in the NASDAQ at 8093.

One of the chart things that has supported this rally are breakaway/runaway gaps in all Indexes. It is questionable as to whether the fundamental news was good enough to support the gaps but at this point and after several weeks of the gaps not being addressed or closed, those gaps are now confirmed and the bullishness of the gaps confirmed as well. All the indexes generated an additional gap last week that were not supported but in the DOW and in the SPX those unsupported gaps were closed on Friday with the DOW getting down to 26733 and the gap being at 26767 and the SPX getting down to 2967 and the gap being at 2676. Nonetheless, the NASDAQ still shows 2 unsupported gaps open with the most recent being at 8010 and the second at 7865. The NASDAQ has been the leader to the upside during this entire bull uptrend and the fact that it is now lagging behind the other indexes and shows chart magnets below does make the bullish outlook of these news highs in the other 2 indexes extremely suspect as unsupported gaps have a high probability of closure.

This coming week is likely to be boring and uneventful. Some gains are expected to be seen but profit taking and some psychological resistance selling is also likely to be seen, meaning that the volatility index should rally this week. It should be noted that since January 2018, the VIX has had a clear bottom support between 11.64 and 12.01 and the index did generate a new buy signal at the end of May that has since been negated. Nonetheless, the index closed on Friday at 13.28 and the chart shows minor to decent weekly close support between 12.88 and 13.57, meaning that it is certainly possible and perhaps even likely that the index will rally (rather than fall) from here. Volatility generally favors the bears.

I do expect a non-eventful week this week as far as closing prices are concerned but the volatility will likely increase and quite a bit of both red and green being seen throughout the week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week other than additional purchases of ENG and consideration to purchase additional shares of AU if the gap to the upside is closed and CRON if the gap to the downside is closed (see updates on held stocks below for details).

For this week and until the earnings reports start, it is unlikely that any stock will end up doing much, meaning that it is not a good "trading" week. In addition, there are still many questions as to the general direction of the market for the next few months and until those are somewhat cleared up, the index market will not be helping anyone, as far as pushing in one direction or the other.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL generated a new 8-week high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 205.08 will be seen this week. As I stated on the message board, there is no intraweek resistance above until 215.31 is reached but on a weekly closing basis, there is a dependable 3-point downtrend line at 207.30 that is likely to stop the rally given that the stock has rallied 21% without any correction and the fundamental picture has not changed. I will be looking to add shorts near that level. Pivotal support is now found at 195.57 and that is a negative given that there is no close by support for new buyers to depend on. On an intraday basis, pivotal support is found at 203.41 that if broken would signal a pause or a stop in the uptrend. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but the short-term outlook is beginning to look difficult for the bulls.

ARNA made a new 54-month intraweek high and another new 5-year weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 62.64 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock is close to an important intraweek spike high resistance at 62.80 that was made the first week of January 2015 and from which a move down to the 13.00 level was seen 52 weeks later, meaning it is a resistance of some consequence. By the same token, the resistance is not supported by any other resistance anywhere near that level, be it intraweek or on a closing basis, going back 20 years, meaning that it is not dependable resistance. Resistance with some previous history is found between $65 and $67, suggesting that if the bulls can get above 62.80 further upside of $2-$4 is likely to be seen. That resistance will be more difficult to break and a correction from there likely to occur. There is some minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance between 57.50 and 58.50 that is likely to offer support at this time but on a weekly closing basis and below 59.60, there is no support of consequence until the $50-$51 area is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

AU generated the first red week and below the previous week's low for the first time in the past 8 weeks. Nonetheless, the stock rallied at the end of the week and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting some decent buying interest is still being seen and that further upside above last week's high at 17.88 will be seen as well. Nonetheless, the stock is nearing a level of resistance of some consequence at the 18.68 level and up to 19.53. The 18.68 level is of particular importance as it represents not only an intraweek high from July 2014 at 18.69 from which the stock fell all the way down to 7.50 over a 1-year period of time but also an important gap area between 19.03 and 18.68 from August 2016 that ultimately caused the stock to drop all the way down to 7.08 and that has held up for close to 3 years. Evidently, if the resistance level is broken and the gap closed, it will be a strong sign that a mid to longer term uptrend is now in place that ultimately offers a $30 objective. If not broken the first time around, it likely means that more backing and filling and building a new support base around last week's low at 16.46 will be seen. Gold did pull back this week to close just $4 above the breakout level at 1397.50 and if the bulls are able to sling themselves above the recent high at 1439.20, a successful retest of the breakout level will have been accomplished and given there is no resistance of consequence until the $1575 level is reached, it could mean an uptrend of consequence to Gold and the stock is ahead. Probabilities favor the bulls.

BABA generated a new 7-week intraweek high but the bulls were not able to maintain the rally, having closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 172.82 will be seen this week. The stock now shows a breakaway and runaway gap formation but no fundamental change supporting the gaps other than the prospect of a resolution to the trade war. If the gap generated this week between 171.98 and 172.82 is closed, or even worse if a gap down is seen on Monday and an island formation is formed, the breakaway gap between 156.11 and 157.23 will be targeted for closure and given that it would mean a 12.3% drop from last week's high and the stock being in a longer term longer term downtrend, it could mean the stock would likely break the recent low at 147.96 and head down to the 200-week MA, currently at $134. It is interesting to note that the stock had no intraweek resistance of consequence anywhere near last week's high and yet the bulls were unable to generate any additional buying in spite of the index market remaining strong. It also needs to be mentioned that the chart did show some minor to perhaps decent weekly close resistance at 175.01 but in spite of trading above that level most of the week, the bulls were unable to close above it, suggesting the traders see this rally now overdone. Evidently, a new high above last week's high at 177.95 would negate this now short-term negative outlook. Daily chart suggests that a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 163.10, is a decent to high probability for the next 2-3 weeks. Probabilities favor the bears.

CCJ extended the recent rally, having generated another 5-week high and the 6th green weekly close in a row. Nonetheless, the rally was not all that convincing since the stock only closed 8 points above the previous week's close and was only able to break the 200-week MA, currently at 10.78, by $.03 cents. The 200-week MA is strongly important as it signifies a mid-term trend direction. This does suggest that this coming week is likely pivotal as a red close would mean the MA line has been tested successfully and the bears maintain their edge and a green close would mean that the recent weakness is over and that the stock is ready to resume the uptrend it was on from October 2017 to February 2019. This is a stock that for the past 9 months has been straddling the 200-week MA and has broken it on 3 occasions. It is a line that stood fast and true from 2011 to 2018 and that does represent long term direction. With the stock repeatedly breaking above the line during the past 9 months and with the drop down to the $10 level now showing a valid and decently meaningful 3-point mid-term uptrend, I would venture to say that the bulls are likely to "get it done" in their favor. This is especially true since this is a company in the ore business and Gold and commodities have broken out. There is no intraweek resistance above until 11.14 is reached and since the stock closed on the high of the week, a rally to that level is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, next Friday's close is the important thing.

CLB once again generated an uneventful inside week (the 2nd in a row), likely meaning that the traders are waiting to see what happens with oil as oil is presently pausing or sputtering-a-bit on its uptrend bias. Nonetheless, the stock now shows 3 successful retests of the 10-year low at 46.32 and that strengthens the idea that the bulls now have a slight edge and that the bears require some negative news to regain control. The 3-week high at 55.45 is pivotal resistance and Tuesday's low at 51.66 now looking like short-term pivotal support. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

CPG technically generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high and then closing red and below the previous week's low as well as near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 3.03 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock is presently trading in a $.45 cent trading range between 3.02 and 3.42-3.47 that has been seen often and repeatedly since November and has proven to be difficult to break for either side and uneventful. Like with CLB, the traders are waiting to see what happens with oil and when that is decided, the stock will do something meaningful. Resistance is found at 3.47 and support at 3.02 and the probabilities favor the stock trading again this week in that area.

CRON made a new 4-week low and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 14.83 will be seen this week. It is important to note that on the weekly chart there is no clear retest of the June low at 13.51 and the probabilities are high that this move down will end up being the required/needed retest of that low. There is decent intraweek support between 13.90 and 14.08 and minor weekly close support at 14.93. The intraweek area of support might be seen but unlikely to be broken. By the same token, there is enough shown support and a positive outlook for the industry and the stock, that getting all the way down to that support is unlikely to happen. One of the likely downside targets is closure of the gap between 14.45 and Wednesday's low at 14.83. The gap was created when the stock was upgraded but upgrades are not normally valid reasons for keeping a gap open so the probability now favors the gap being closed and new buying immediately seen thereafter. This is especially true given that the 200-day MA is currently at 14.69, and on a daily closing basis, it is highly unlikely the stock will close below the line. Probabilities favor the bears this week but only up to closure of the gap.

CVS made a new 8-week high that makes the previous week's low at 52.76 into the required/needed retest of the 6-year low at 51.72 that was seen in May. It also means that the bulls have been able to shed all the selling pressure seen the past 8 weeks. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 55.57 is expected to be seen this week. More needs to be done to generate a short-term breakout that would be considered a recovery rally to thye next and more meaningful-to-the-long-term level of resistance at $60. Intraweek double high resistance of consequence is found at 57.75 that if broken would likely carry the stock up to the 60.86 level. On a weekly closing basis though, a weekly close above 56.66 would suggest the breakout is occurring. Support is now important and pivotal at 52.76. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG generated an uneventful inside week though a red weekly close occurred at the important and pivotal .88 level. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .92 will be seen this week. Any intraweek break above .92 would show open air above up to 1.08. It does need to be mentioned that the stock broke above the 200-day MA, currently at .80, on June 3rd and has now been above the line for the past 23 trading days. This is a line that the stock had been trading under for the 8 months prior to the breakout and now shows 3 successful intraweek retests of it, meaning it is now established support and a level the bulls can depend on and buy off of. Chart-wise and fundamentally, this is likely to be one of the best buys out there at this time and at this price, it should be bought. Mid-term objective is 2.00 but long term it could be more. This stock once traded as high a 17.38. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.

FSLR once again made a new 13-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 67.20 will be seen this week. There is no resistance above until very minor intraweek resistance is found at 67.80. Further minor resistance is found at 71.80 and then decent to strong around the $74 level. On a weekly closing basis, resistance (minor) starts at 66.37 and becomes a brick wall around the $73 level. The chart suggests the stock will continue upward to $70 where new selling interest is likely to start being seen. Stop losses can now be raised to 61.40 as short-term pivotal support is now found at 61.50. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but consideration should be given to liquidating positions above $70 and definitely around $73. After reaching these higher levels, a correction is likely to occur that should take the stock back down to the $59/$60 level.

IBM bulls were able to close above the $140 demilitarized zone and that is a short-term positive. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 141.82 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless and even though the stock closed convincingly above the weekly close resistance at 139.70, this was also accomplished in April and the bulls were unable to do anything of importance then and probably the same thing will happen this time unless the index market makes establishes a new leg upward. Pivotal weekly close resistance is found at 144.35 that if broken would be a bull statement. There is some minor daily close resistance around the 141.44 level, meaning that some signs of bullishness or lack thereof could be seen as early as Monday's close given that the stock closed on Friday at 141.38. A red close on Monday would tilt the odds slightly in favor of the bears. Any daily and especially weekly close below 139.70 would now be a negative statement. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

LNTH made yet another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high this past week but some selling interest was uncovered at the $30 demilitarized zone as the stock got up to 29.80 and then fell back to close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 27.98 than above last week's high at 29.80. The upside objective of this mention was the $30-$31 level and it can be said that with the stock getting up to the $30 demilitarized zone that the mention's objective has been reached. Given that the stock is into new all-time highs, at this time a correction is not likely to take the stock below the $26 level anytime soon. By the same token, if able to liquidate the positions near the $30 level it should be considered as the stock is likely to give up as much as $4 from that area, which is almost a 15% drawback. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.


1) ENG - Purchased at .85, Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .88.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.18 (new price (61.80).

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 43.835. (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 61.40. Stock closed on Friday at 66.84.

4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.81.

5) LNTH - Averaged long at 24.34 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 23.18. Stock closed on Friday at 28.72.

6) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0685.

7) AAPL - Averaged short at 190.71 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 204.23.

8) IBM - Averaged short at 136.08 (2 mentions) No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 141.38.

9) CVS - Purchased at 55.60. No stop at present. Stock closed on Friday at 55.57.

10) CPG - Averaged long at 3.28 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 2.66. Stock closed on Friday at 3.11.

11) ARNA - Averaged long at 46.62 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 52.20. Stock closed on Friday at 61.80.

12) CLB - Averaged long at 48.345 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 46.22. Stock closed on Friday at 53.45.

13) CRON - Averaged long at 14.065 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 13.41. Stock closed on Friday at 15.29.

14) BABA - Shorted at 170.19. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 173.30.

15) AU - Purchased at 16.91. Averaged long at 18.86 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 15.10. Stock closed on Friday at 17.74.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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