Issue #619 ![]() Jun 30, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
Trade Talks on Again. How Will Traders React?
DOW Friday closing price - 26599
The indexes all generated red weekly closes opening the door for the rally to be over. The red closes mean that both the DOW and the NASDAQ now show a successful retest of the all-time highs (something that had not occurred previously) and the SPX, closing below the previous all-time high at 2945, generated a failure signal of the new highs made the last 2 weeks. All of these signals will need to be confirmed this week in order to be adopted by the traders and that is still a question mark given that Xi and Trump did agree on Saturday to reopen trade negotiations and that may be seen as a positive. On the other side of the hand, Trump was the one that had to give a concession (lifting the ban on Huawei) in order for the talks to simply resume and that could be seen as a sign of weakness. As such, what is to happen this week is not yet clear at this time even though the much awaited meeting between the two leaders is now over. The reality is that the trade war continues and the cost of it keeps mounting, meaning we are nowhere close to where we were before the Trade War began. As such, it is difficult to visualize fundamentally many reasons for the indexes to go higher until the fundamentals improve.
The indexes, with the exception of the DOW did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting from a purely chart point of view that last week's highs should be broken this week (SPX at 2954 and NASDAQ at 8047). Such a situation could occur as the news is more positive than negative. Nonetheless, it is hard to imagine that new highs will be made. Even then, closing prices (daily and weekly) are more important than intraweek prices, meaning that the intraday action seen Monday morning may not reflect what the closing prices will be.
This week is also important for economic reports as the two strongest reports for the month are due out this week. On Monday, the ISM Index report is due out and it is expected to be 51.5%, which is down from the previous month's number at 52.1%. As it is, the index has been coming down the last few months from a high of 59 in November of last year and is now close to the 50% number which represents growth or retraction. Evidently, a lower number will be a negative, especially given that the Fed is already expected to cut interest rates and further weakness will not raise those expectations much, while the opposite is true. The Jobs report is due out next Friday and the number is expected to be 160k, which is up from last month's 75k number but down from the average of about 220k seen the last year. As such, even a 160k number or higher is not likely to help the bulls. A lower number though, would be seen as a negative. Factory Orders is due out on Wednesday and is not normally a catalytic report but the last 3 months the number has come out in the negative and it is expected this number will also be a negative, given that it is expected to be -.5%. One negative number is meaningless but 4 negative numbers in a row is considered a trend and if the number comes out negative again, it will be a negative to the market.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows resistance at 26907 and strong resistance at the all-time high at 26951. The SPX resistance at the previous all-time high at 2954 and then pivotal and strong resistance at the all-time high at 2964. The NASDAQ shows short term pivotal resistance at 8088 and then minor to decent resistance at 8107, decent at 8133 and strong at the all-time high at 8176.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor but pivotal support at Thursday's low at 26465 and then again at 26310 and minor again at 25958. Below that, there is support at 25372 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 25446. The SPX shows minor but likely pivotal support at 2912, again at 2900 and then again between 2860 and 2874. Below that support, there is no support until decent support at 2800 and then on a daily closing basis at 2775, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. The NASDAQ shows minor but pivotal support at Thursday's low at 7867, very minor support at 7912 and again at 7873. Below that level, there is minor but short-term pivotal support at 7773 and then nothing until decent support between 7600 and 7627.
If last week's Thursday lows are broken this week, it is likely the traders will jump on the bear side given that it would mean the gaps mentioned repeatedly the last two weeks would be closed and would go on to suggest the gaps below would be targeted as well. It does seem that the traders did a good job this past week in outlining the support and resistance levels that are in play this week and will help them determine which direction to take. Evidently, a new all-time high in the SPX (above 2964) would generate new buying interest while a break below last week's low at 2912 would do the opposite. As such, that 54 point trading range between 2912 and 2964 is the only area that is meaningless. Anything above or below that area will suggest direction for at least the next 4 weeks.
I continue to believe that the economy is slowing down and is not likely to recover unless a trade agreement with China is made. Even then, the losses already suffered because of the trade war are not going to overcome the additional gains that a trade agreement would bring and much less allow any rally much above the already high levels achieved 18 months ago before the trade war began, Even before the trade war started, the Fed was predicting that GDP would be falling and even gave an objective of 1.8% average GDP for 2021.
The market has changed much over the past 10 years, given the advent of computers and algorithms and the fact that this uptrend is now historic as never before has any uptrend lasted as long as this one (average is 5 years, this one is now 10 years), meaning that the bulls have enjoyed additional support to the rally that has never been seen before. Nonetheless and by many metrics, this rally has begun to peter out. The DOW got up to 29616 in January of 2018 and since then (18 months) the most it has gained is 345 points (.012%). The SPX got up to 2872 in January 2018 and since then has seen 3 new highs at 2840 in September, at 2854 in December and at 2864 two weeks ago and that is only a 3% appreciation over and 18-month period of time. It should be mentioned that the 2 previous new highs were followed by a 19.7% and a 7% correction immediately after. The market is showing definite signs of exhaustion and with the fundamentals no longer strongly supporting further upside, the downside is now the clear favorite.
I do believe that the indexes will open higher on Monday based on the agreement to restart trade agreement negotiations but the rally is not likely to be supported as nothing of consequence has actually been gained. I expect that by Friday, the signals given last Friday will be confirmed.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
There are no mentions in the newsletter this week given that the reaction to the resumption of trade talks is not yet clear. Nonetheless, there is one standing purchase mention on a presently held stock (ENG) that the desired entry point, stop loss, and objective can be found in the Held Stocks Updates section.
By the same token, if some direction is determined on Monday (or any day this week), I will give mentions in the message board.
|
Updates
|
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
|
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
|
Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2019, as of 6/1 Profit of $15,721 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for June per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
LVS (short) $5 GS (long) $48 AAPL (short) $145 AAPL (short) $252 Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. FSLR (long) $971 Total Profit for April, per 100 shares and after commissions $1421 Closed out losing trades for June per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
NONE
Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. COF (short) $114 Total Loss for June, per 100 shares, including commissions $114 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 6/30
CRON (long) $233
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
ARNA (long) $1124
ARNA (long) $225 ENG (long) $50 CRON (long) $190 CVS (long) $212 LNTH (long) $862 CLB (long) $466 FSLR (long)$1528 CCJ (long) 256 MCIG (long) $6 Total $5724 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 6/30
NONE
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
IBM (short) $2182 Total $6768 Status of trades for month of June per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Profit of $263
Status of account/portfolio for 2019, as of 4/30Profit of $15,984 using 100 shares traded per mention.
AAPL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7-week high and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 195.25 will be seen this week. The stock generated a 15.6% rally off of the June low and did it without any positive fundamental change occurring, suggesting that chart factors are now going to kick into place. It does need to be mentioned that just yesterday afternoon after the market close, one rating company lowered their outlook for the stock based on the fact that 20% IPhone upgrade sales are in China, From a chart perspective, there is no support on the weekly chart until the $180 level is reached and even then that support is minor in nature. Some intraweek support is found at 184.58 and again at 180.73. On the daily chart, there is some support at the $190 demilitarized zone and the 200-day MA is currently at 188.80, meaning that if the index market does not help the stock rally, those 2 support levels will become short-term objectives. It should also be mentioned that on Thursday the stock broke a triple high 200.61 and 200.99 with a rally up to 201.47 (last week's high) but the breakout failed as there was no follow through after the stock closed at 199.74, which was then again followed the following day with a lower low and a red daily close. As such, last week's high at 201.47 is now considered pivotal resistance. Probabilities favor the bears.
ARNA made a new 5-year weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 58.88 will be seen this week. The previous 5-year intraweek high at 59.31, seen 5 weeks ago, did not get broken but based on where the stock closed, that level should be broken this week. Above 59.31, there is no intraweek resistance until decent at 62.80 is reached. That resistance is likely going to be difficult to break the first time around, meaning that taking some profits at that level should be considered. Support is now found on a daily closing basis at 53.01 and on the weekly closing chart it is at 54.32 but if 59.31 is broken and confirmed, support will then go up to the 57.50 level, a level that should not be broken thereafter unless some negative information comes out. Probabilities favor the bulls. AU generated another green weekly close, the 7th in a row, and once again closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18.01 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock is now nearing a level of resistance of some consequence at 18.68, given that it was a previous high that was not broken for 3 years and also a level where a weekly gap down between 19.03 and 18.68 occurred in August 2016. Gold has generated a confirmed breakout and should help the bulls keep going higher but this is an important level of resistance where some decisions are likely to be made, at least on a short-term basis. Closure of the gap at 19.03 should help the bulls get up to the $20 demilitarized zone and above that level there is open air until the $30 level is reached. Intraweek support is now found at 16.77 and at 15.20 but on a daily closing basis, the stock should no longer close below the most recent breakout at 15.51. To a short-term degree, this coming week is pivotal as the stock is likely to get up to the 18.68 level and the stock has moved up for 7 weeks in a row, meaning it is about due for a red weekly close. Probabilities favor the bulls for a rally at the beginning of the week but then the probabilities reverse to favor the bears toward the end of the week. One thing to consider carefully is that the $15 level is now a level that should not be broken to the downside and the overall objective of this trade is $30, meaning that the short-term gyrations of the stock should not factor into the decision to hold or trade the stock unless you are planning to trade the stock consistently. The risk/reward ratio is now in favor of the bulls at any of these levels and the short-term gyrations will not affect that at all. BABA generated the 4th green weekly close in a row and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 171.98 will be seen this week. In addition, a failure signal against the bears was given when the stock closed above a previous low weekly close of importance at 167.52. As such and if the bears still maintain any sort of an edge, they need to generate a red weekly close next Friday below 167.52 or the bulls will get their edge back. The daily close chart does show some resistance at the $170 demilitarized zone and the stock did run into that resistance, having closed on Thursday at 170.90 and then on Friday at 169.45. As such, it will be very important to see how the stock acts on Monday with the trade talks on again. Pivotal support is now found at 164.62 and pivotal resistance is now found at last week's high at 171.98. Given that the probabilities favor that high being broken, if the stock closes the gap at 167.34, consideration should be given to taking profits though minor in nature. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CCJ continued its recent recovery rally, having generated another 6-week high and the 5th green weekly close in a row. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 10.78 is expected to be seen this week. It is of note that the stock closed on Thursday at 10.45, meaning that the bulls were obligated to rally the stock on Friday above the previous week's close at 10.63 given that a red weekly close would have paused the recovery rally and it was not until the last 10 minutes of trading that the bulls were able to generate a green weekly close. It does suggest that the bulls continue to have the short-term edge. Nonetheless, the stock has now arrived at a pivotal level of weekly close resistance given that the 200-week MA is currently at 10.79 and that means that a green weekly close next week would be bullish for the longer term but a red weekly close would suggest the bulls have more to do to change the short-term outlook. It does need to be mentioned that on an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until 11.18/11.32 is reached and that opens the door wide for a rally to that level, which in turn would make it difficult for the bears to generate a red weekly close next Friday. At this time and given the overall picture of commodities, I would give the probability edge to the bulls. CLB was unable to follow through on the previous week's spike up rally and close on the high of the week given that an inside week occurred coupled with a red close. The likely reason for this happening was that one rating company lowered the upside objective to $77 (from $95) in spite of maintaining an outperform rating. Nonetheless and chart-wise, some necessary chart work was accomplished given that the daily close breakout at 50.62, as well as the psychological support at $50, were tested successfully when the stock closed on Wednesday at 50.04 and then was following by 2 green daily closes at 51.23 and Friday's close at 52.28. The stock closed slightly below the midpoint of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for both the bulls or the bears regarding going above last week's high at 55.25 or below last week's low at 49.93. Nonetheless, with the stock now showing a successful retest of those two important levels and oil looking to maintain its upward momentum this week, I would venture to give the probability edge to the bulls. Evidently the previous week's high at 55.35 is pivotal resistance given that last week the bulls were unable to get above that level. Nonetheless, above that level there is no previous intraweek resistance until 60.98 is reached, meaning that if broken the stock could easily rally an additional $5 without much problem. There is daily close resistance at 58.84 and weekly close resistance at 57.17. Support is now likely pivotal at the $50 demilitarized zone. CPG technically generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing red. Nonetheless, the break above the previous week's high was only by $.04 cents and the red close was only by $.02, suggesting it is not meaningful. The stock did trade in this manner (small trading ranges with a very slight upward bias but resistance above not broken) for a period of 4 weeks in December/January. During that period of time, the 3.42-3.45 level was impenetrable though seen repeatedly (3 times). By the same token and to the downside, the 3.21 levels also showed decent support buying. As such, it is safe to assume that for now and until some catalyst appears, the stock will mimic the same pattern, meaning that for the time being 3.21 and 3.45 are the parameters in place. I do not see that changing this week. The probabilities of a breakout are higher than a breakdown but even then, more good resistance is found at 3.55/3.66. Probabilities this week favor "more of the same". CVS generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low and then closing green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 55.24 will be seen this week. If that occurs, the positive reversal will become the second successful retest of the 51.77 low seen in May and will strengthens the idea that the stock has found a bottom to the 4-year downtrend and that a breakout is imminent. The stock has now generated 4 weeks in a row of sideway trading with a very slight downward bias but given that the bears have been in total control for the past 4 years, the inability to push lower continues to increase the chances of a breakout occurring soon. In addition, the close on Friday near the highs of the week was the first close during this period of time when the bulls had the edge based on the close itself (other 3 times the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range), suggesting this might be the week it happens. Pivotal resistance is found at 55.75 and that is only $.51 cents above last week's high, meaning that the bulls don't need to do much to automatically generate new buying interest. The big level of resistance that needs to be broken is at 57.75 but based on the close on Friday, that level could be targeted this week. Support is now seen at last week's low at 52.76. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG generated the first red weekly close in the past 5 weeks and also the first week where the stock traded below the previous week's low. Nonetheless, this is not seen as a negative given that something like that was needed in order to build a new support level that can be depended on and from which to launch a rally to accomplish what still needs to be done to generate a true breakout. On a positive note, the stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at .92 is expected to occur and if that happens, last week's low at .81 cents will become the new intraweek support level from which another leg up can occur. It is important to mention that in spite of the red weekly close, no support was broken. In fact, if the stock generates a green weekly close next Friday above .92, two positive things will have occurred in the way of a new buy signal being given as well as a successful retest of the breakout weekly closing level at .88. Such action would likely bring in a lot of new buying. Probabilities favor the bulls. FSLR made a new 13-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 66.05 will be seen this week. This new high does improve the chart picture of the stock as it does negate totally the weakness seen the past year and helps paint a new outlook for the stock. It also makes the 58.80 level into a new intraweek support level of consequence. On the other side of the coin, the stock is approaching a strong level of weekly close resistance at $70/$71 that is unlikely to be broken at this time and that does suggests that the stock will get into a trading range between $59/$60 and $70/$71 that is likely to last at least 6 months. There is no intraweek resistance above until minor at 67.80 and then a bit stronger at 69.77 and a bit stronger at 72.10. As such, getting up to the $71 level is not likely to happen right away but over a period of 2-4 weeks. Support is found on a daily closing basis at 64.25. Probabilities favor the bulls. IBM generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7-week high but then closing in the red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 137.84 will be seen this week. It is important to note that the $140 demilitarized zone has proven to be a pivotal resistance/support level since November 2015 and having gotten up to 140.15 this past week and turning back down, suggests that without some positive fundamental catalyst, the stock will continue to be under bear control. The chart suggests that the stock will see some downside the next couple of weeks with support starting at 136.26 and down to 132.12, including the 200-day MA, currently at 133.22 that is not likely to be broken (on a daily closing basis) at this time, without help from the index market or from negative company news. As such, any drop down to that area should be considered for taking profits or simply covering the short. Any rally now above 140.35 would be a bullish sign. Probabilities favor the bears. LNTH made yet another new all-time weekly closing high this past week and once again closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 28.37 will be seen this week. This is now the 8th new weekly closing high in the past 5 months and shows that the company remains a favorite of the bulls. The upside objective using general chart guidelines is the $30 to $31 level and that is now only $1.50-$2.50 away from last week's high. The previous all-time high daily and weekly closes, both at 26.07, is now considered support that if broken would give a failure signal. Probabilities favor the bulls.
|
1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .91. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.86 (new price (58.63). 3) FSLR - Averaged long at 43.835. (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 58.30. Stock closed on Friday at 65.68. 4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.73. 5) LNTH - Averaged long at 24.34 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 23.18. Stock closed on Friday at 28.30. 6) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0734. 7) AAPL - Averaged short at 190.71 (2 mentions). stop loss at 193.47. Stock closed on Friday at 197.92. 8) IBM - Averaged short at 136.08 (2 mentions) Stop loss now at 140.35. Stock closed on Friday at 137.90. 9) CVS - Purchased at 55.60. No stop at present. Stock closed on Friday at 54.49. 10) CPG - Averaged long at 3.28 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 2.66. Stock closed on Friday at 3.30. 11) ARNA - Averaged long at 46.62 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 52.20. Stock closed on Friday at 58.63. 12) COF - Covered shorts at 89.98. Profit on the trade of $380 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions. 13) CLB - Averaged long at 48.345 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 46.22. Stock closed on Friday at 52.28. 14) CRON - Averaged long at 14.065 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 13.41. Stock closed on Friday at 15.98. 15) BABA - Shorted at 170.19. Stop loss at 174.75. Stock closed on Friday at 169.45. 16) AU - Purchased at 16.81. Stop loss at 15.10. Stock closed on Friday at 17.81.
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|