Issue #618
Jun 23, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls in Control but All-time High Loom!

DOW Friday closing price - 26719
SPX Friday closing price - 2950
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 8031

The indexes continued their recent rally having generated the 3rd week in a row of green weekly closes with gains of anywhere between 7.6% in the SPX to 8.9% in the DOW. In the process, the SPX made a new all-time intraweek and weekly close high. Nonetheless, there have been no tangible fundamental changes, meaning that part of this rally has been anticipation of such and or chart-oriented and those will need to be confirmed before the traders can feel comfortable about these prices.

The rally began on the manufactured scenario of new Tariffs on Mexico that were then cancelled, the realization that the Fed will now be considering rate cuts (rather than raises) and on the possibility that Trump and Xi will get together at the G20 meeting at the end of the month and iron out a Trade agreement. Nonetheless, even before the rally it was already anticipated the Fed would be cutting rates this year, there were no Tariffs on Mexico prior to the rally (just threats) and Trump has not yet stated that he is willing to give China what they want (dignity), meaning that there is really nothing tangible or new that has been accomplished over the past 3 weeks when this rally began.

The fact that the SPX made new high but the other indexes didn't is not all that surprising given that the financial industry is the main beneficiary of lower interest rates. In addition, it was announced this past week that the ECB will be adding new Stimulus in Europe, which in turn is most beneficial to the banking industry. By the same token, the inability of the DOW to make new all-time intraweek highs even though it came within 44 points of doing so or close above the previous all-time weekly closing high at 26743 even though it traded above that level for 95% of the day on Friday, as well as the fact that the NASDAQ did not even get close to its all-time highs even though that has been the leading index to the upside for the past 10 years, does suggest that the traders are nowhere near convinced that this rally will end up becoming a new leg up in the index market.

It was announced by the Fed on Wednesday that a 50% rate cut is highly likely to occur this year, meaning that rate cut has now been factored into the price of the market. Economic reports could change that scenario but it is unlikely that those economic reports will either be much better or much worse than expected, meaning the outlook for interest rate changes either to the upside or the downside is not likely to change much. As such, the most important thing on the calendar at this time is the meeting between Trump and Xi at the G20 meeting on June 28/29. Continuation of the trade war is a negative and anticipation of that changing for the better has been one of the main reasons for this recent rally, meaning that if nothing gets accomplished at the meeting, the index market is likely to give up part or all of the recent rally. The next catalyst is the beginning of the earnings quarter that starts on Monday July 15th with C reporting. Earnings are still expected to come in lower, which is in and of itself a negative, but the trade war effect (now almost 1 year) may start to be shown more this quarter than before, meaning there is a higher probability of earnings being lower than expected than higher than expected and that is one more reason why this recent rally is extremely fragile and unlikely to be supported much longer.

It does need to be mentioned that the last 2 times (over the past 17 months) that the SPX made a new all-time high, within 1-3 weeks the new high was followed by a failure signal. In the new all-time high that was made last October, a failure signal was generated on the 3rd week thereafter and caused the index to drop 20.3% over a period of 14 weeks and in the new high made in April, a failure signal was given the following week and caused the index to fall 7.7% over a period of 5 weeks, meaning that a new all-time high is no guarantee that follow through of consequence will occur. The first all-time high in the last 17 months generated appreciation of 2% above the previous all-time high and the last one generated only a .6% appreciation. Using those 2 examples, appreciation up to 2959 or as high as 3003 could be seen in the index.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows strong resistance at the all-time high at 26951. The SPX no resistance above as it made a new all-time high this past week, and the NASDAQ shows minor to decent resistance at 8107m decent at 8133 and strong at the new all-time high at 8176.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 26310 and minor again at 25958. Below that, there is support at 25372 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 25446. The SPX shows minor support at 2900 and then again between 2860 and 2874. Below that support, there is no support until decent support at 2800 and then on a daily closing basis at 2775, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. The NASDAQ shows very minor support at 7912 and again at 7873. Below that level, there is minor but short-term pivotal support at 7773 and then nothing until decent support between 7600 and 7627.

This week and as far as economic reports are concerned, Consumer Confidence comes out Tuesday (estimated to be 132 - last month was 134), Durable Goods comes out Wednesday (estimated to be -.3% - last month was -2.1%) and the 3rd estimate of GDP on Thursday (estimated to be 3.1%). None of these numbers are likely to have an impact unless way out of line. The biggest problems the bulls are facing is a lack of support nearby which opens the door for any slightly negative news causing a strong drop in price. In addition, the indexes all show unsupported-by-news gaps and those will be magnets if the upward momentum stops or even just pauses. It is important to note that the SPX and the NASDAQ show 2 gaps whereas the DOW only shows one. With the first gap created being at 21165 in the DOW, at 2897 in the SPX and at 7865 in the NAZ, it does mean that any pause is likely to bring about a 2% drop in price and that would be too much for the bulls to overcome without fundamental help. It is also important to note that the index that has rallied the most during the past 3 weeks is the DOW and that is the index that represents the most reliable and secure stocks (Blue Chip), whereas the other indexes have rallied less, suggesting that in this most recent rally, the traders are being careful rather than outright speculative. It does suggest fragility is involved.

With the scenario mentioned above in place this week, it is going to be a very difficult week for the bulls to maintain the momentum they need to keep the traders from taking profits under the risky outlook involved. It is unlikely the economic reports during the week will be good enough to keep the momentum alive and there are no scheduled events worldwide that would give additional ammunition to the bulls, meaning traders will be starting the week with some trepidation and insecurity. As such, it is difficult to evaluate what the indexes will do this week before information about the G20 meeting starts to come out.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Gold broke out for the first time in 4 years this past week and this is not directly related to the market in general but to factors that have been building over the past few weeks that suggest that commodities in general are likely to be where money now flows to next, especially considering the fundamental situation worldwide with stocks, banks, interest rates and growth in general. Commodities in general have been suppressed in value for a long time and therefore likely to draw more buying interest than overall stocks because the risk is smaller and the profit potential larger.

With Gold having broken out this week, I looked first at Gold stocks and narrowed it down to dependable and long established stocks that can be played with some confidence. Among those, I found one that has a set of particular circumstances that seem to favor it as one of the best to play at this time.

AU Friday Closing Price - 17.08

AU is the third largest gold mining company in the world in terms of production. AngloGold Ashanti is a South African company with operations in nearly a dozen countries. In 2017 the company produced about 3.8 million ounces of gold. Heading into the final few months of 2018, AngloGold Ashanti touted impressive figures. The company's all-in sustaining costs (AISC) improved 14% year-over-year for Q3 2018, with full-year production figures estimated to be at the top end of guidance. Further, AngloGold Ashanti strengthened its position relative to other companies in its industry by continuing to stand out for its safety practices.

In looking at the chart, AU seems to be leading Gold rather than the other way around, given that the stock generated the first breakout from a 15-month trading range between 8.55 and 13.39 (based on a weekly close) in January of this year and that breakout was confirmed twice, meaning that the stock now shows a good chart with levels of support that can be depended on. Two weeks ago, the stock once again generated a second breakout that has the stock now running on a hot-streak and looking like the stock to purchase.

Contrary to Gold itself, AU does show a chart that has levels of resistance above that may slow down its movement but with Gold having mostly open air above for another $150 move over the next 12 months, and the stock being a leader in and of itself, the possibility of the stock doubling in price over the next year is high.

The first level of resistance that AU will find is at 19.53 and then stronger at 22.10 but given the outlook for Gold, it is likely that the $31 level will be the main objective for the stock on this trade. That level was strong support back in 2012 when Gold was trading at the $1550 level and given that is the objective for the breakout in gold, it is also likely a viable objective for the stock. Nonetheless, the objective could be higher given the fundamental gains the company has been able to achieve of late.

As far as support is concerned, the most recent breakout came from the 15.50 level (based on a daily close), suggesting the stock will no longer generate a daily close below that level and based on purchasing the stock at Friday's closing price, it means the risk is no more than about $1.50. Using $30 as the objective, it does suggest a risk of about $1.50 and profit potential of about $13 per share, meaning a better than 8-1 risk/reward ratio.

Purchases of AU at Friday's closing price of 17.08 and using a 15.40 daily close only stop loss and having a $30 objective, offers a 7.7-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL has now rallied 15.3% over the past 3 weeks and is not yet showing any action that would suggest the bulls are finding resistance and or selling interest, other than perhaps the fact the stock got up to the psychological resistance at $200 on Tuesday (up to 200.29) and during the next 4 days the bulls were only above to gain an additional $.36 cents in value that when compared to the additional 1.7% the NASDAQ gained, it does suggest some selling interest or profit taking was found at the $200 level. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 200.85 is expected to be seen this week. When the stock made a new all-time high in 233.47 in October and then fell all the way down to 143.80, the subsequent correction upward gained 80% back of what was lost. The stock has now regained 70% back of what was lost when the stock fell back to 170.27 from the 215.31 high, suggesting that another 10% appreciation in price (up to around 202.87) could be seen before the rally peters out. It should be mentioned that there is some minor intraweek resistance at 202.85 and given that the stock remains in a mid-term downtrend and has received no positive fundamental news, it would be surprising to see the bulls gain more than that unless the indexes help out. The 200-day MA is currently at 189.65 and that is a highly viable downside objective under the current conditions. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but overall and at these prices, there is a higher probability of gain for the bears than the bulls.

ARNA did not do anything indicative this week as it basically traded the same trading range as the previous week but having had a $.9 cent gain above the previous week's high as well as $.12 cent above the previous week's low. The stock closed slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 58.89 is the most likely course of action for this week. The closest level of pivotal support on the daily closing chart is at 53.01 and on the weekly closing chart it is at 54.32, meaning that as long as those levels are not broken, the bulls maintain their edge. There is minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance at 59.31 from September 2009 that got just a little bit stronger with the highs seen the last 2 weeks at 58.80 and 58.89 but given that the bears did not accomplish anything last week, the probabilities still favor it being broken. There is stronger and more recent resistance (Jan2015) at 62.80. On a weekly closing basis, there is no resistance of consequence until 65.10 is reached. This does suggest that the bulls are still in control and that the intraweek resistance levels will not pose as much resistance as the weekly close resistance levels, suggesting the $65 level is the next objective before any correction of consequence is seen. Based on the recent action and the new breakout, the 52.30 intraweek low has become decent and pivotal resistance, meaning the stop loss can now be raised to 52.20. Probabilities favor the bulls.

BABA generated the 3rd green weekly close in a row and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 170.48 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock closed in the red on Friday and near the lows of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside below Friday's low at 166.77 will be seen on Monday. The stock did break above the 200-day MA, currently at 162.64, and that breakout has not yet been tested, suggesting a test of the line will occur first before the traders seek to rally the stock more. One interest chart fact is that the stock closed on Friday exactly at the level of strong support at 167.52 that held the stock up for 13 months and that when broken caused the stock to drop down to the $130 level, meaning it is a pivotal level of resistance on the weekly closing chart, and given that it is a Chinese stock, it will close higher or lower on Friday based on what comes out of the Xi and Trump meeting. I do plan to trade the stock this week as it does move a lot and a fast profit can be made by covering the short on Monday if it does drop down to the MA line.

CCJ continued its recent recovery rally, having generated a new 6-week high and the 4th green weekly close in a row. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 10.71 is expected to be seen this week. The stock did generate a buy signal on Thursday when it closed above the high daily close for the past 5 weeks at 10.40 and now has open air above on the intraweek chart until the 200-day MA, currently at 11.32, is reached. It should also be mentioned that Gold generated a breakout from a 4-year sideways trend, suggesting that commodities may now begin to rally and given that this stock is in the ore business it is likely to benefit from that breakout. Support on a daily closing basis is now found at 10.40 but it does need to be mentioned that on an intraweek basis, the 10.30 level has been pivotal on many occasions since January 2016, meaning that drops below that level are not likely to happen anymore. As such, this stock is now a viable new purchase or to add to existing positions using a 10.25 stop loss. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CLB generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing above the previous week's high and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 55.35 will be seen this week. In addition, the negative reversal will also be seen as a successful retest of the 10-year low at 46.30 that occurred 5 weeks ago if the stock does go above last week's high, meaning that it is a strong sign that the low of this recent downtrend has been found. There is no established resistance above except on a daily and weekly closing basis at 57.17 and at 58.84 and those resistances are considered minor to at most minor to decent given they are previous lows rather than previous highs. There is no previous intraweek resistance found until 60.98 and even then that resistance is considered minor. This stock has shown a tendency in the past to generate rallies of anywhere from a minimum of $13 to a max of about $25 when a bottom to a correction is found, meaning that $59 seems to be the minimum and $71 the maximum based on that pattern. The most recent high daily close at 50.62 is now decent daily close support. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week.

COF made a new 4-week high but the bulls were not able to break convincingly any resistance levels given that the 6-week high at 92.27 was only broken by $.09 cents (92.36 high). Nonetheless, the stock did close near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high is expected to be seen. As such, the stop loss at 92.37 is likely to be triggered. The resistance in this area is minor in nature and with stronger and more indicative resistance at 94.38, the bulls will still not have made a statement other than a very short term and limited one. It must be mentioned that the resistance in this area, starting at 91.44 and up to 94.38 is well established spanning 3 years and 6 different occasions when this area stopped the rallies. Given that the stock is likely to break above last week's high this week, chart suggests the upside objective is 93.40, which was an important high made on October 2017 and from which a drop down to 85.17 occurred within 3 weeks. That scenario is the most probable one even though the chart suggests that only a drop back down to 86.95 will be seen. Stop loss has been raised to 94.48, though any strong confirmed breakout of the index market may cause me to consider covering of the shorts at a lower price if not stopped out. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only for a rally to 93.40.

CPG generated the first green weekly close in the past 6 weeks and the second in the last 9 weeks but given that the stock is at a fundamentally low price and oil has generated a breakout out of its downtrend, it does suggest this rally has some legs to it. Nonetheless, the bulls still have more work to do before it can be said that the downtrend is over, starting with the fact the stock gapped up on Thursday between 3.19 and 3.23 and that gap is not supported by news. As such it should be closed soon. In addition, there is a mountain of resistance starting at 3.39 and all the way up to 3.65 that stopped all rallies for 6 months between November 2018 and April 2019 that the bulls need to overcome before new buying interest is stimulated. Nonetheless, oil and the bulls in the stock have now done enough that the 3.00 level on an intraweek basis is once again dependable support, which in turn suggests that unless oil does something above what is expected, the stock will trade between 3.00 and 3.65 for the next couple of months. Probabilities favor the bulls this week for a rally up to the 3.50-3.55 area. Any daily or weekly close above 3.50 will give the bulls additional and unexpected ammunition.

CVS generated a second uneventful inside week but on this occasion (contrary to last week), a red weekly close occurred, suggesting that not only the stock will go below last week's low at 53.23 will occur but that second retest of the recent 51.72 low is to occur as well. This in turn suggests that the merger with AETNA is still somewhat up in the air though ultimately it is likely to occur since it has gotten the blessing of Federal officials. For the last 3 weeks, the stock has been stuck between 53.02 and 55.75 and until one of those levels gets broken, that pattern is likely to continue. It is important to note that the chart clearly shows that the possibilities of going below $50 are very low and therefore the risk/reward ratio on any trade at this price level is heavily in favor of the bulls, meaning that any downside is likely to require tangible negative fundamentals news and at this price it is a very low possibility. Trading range for now is clearly established. A break of either resistance or support is likely to bring at least a $3 movement in either direction. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

ENG generated an inside week but the bulls did accomplish the 4th green weekly close in a row, meaning that the bulls remain with the edge at this time. The bulls did manage to close $.01 cent above an important weekly close resistance at .91 and that suggests that this coming week more upside will be seen. Nonetheless, the close was not a convincing one, meaning this week is likely pivotal, using the weekly close. Nonetheless, the news has been positive and the bears have not gotten any new ammunition, meaning that further upside is the most likely scenario. On a daily closing basis, the levels of support and resistance are clearly shown on the chart with .90 being decent support and .99 being decent resistance. There is further resistance at 1.04 that would still need to be broken before a run of consequence could be seen but a confirmed close above .99 would strongly suggest that would happen after a short period of time trading around the 1.00 level. Any confirmed close below .90 would be a deflator of mood. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FSLR made a new 13-month high weekly close and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 64.02 will be seen this week. The new multi-month high does suggest that the recent drop down to 59.59 was a minor correction that has now run its course and that the uptrend is likely to continue. By the same token, the stock did not make a new 13-month intraweek high as the 65.28 level was not broken and that could suggest a bit more backing and filling could occur within the recent range between 59.59 and 65.28 is to be seen. The daily chart has now built decent resistance around the 64.00 level that was strengthened on Friday by going below Thursday's low and generating a red daily close, which does suggest the first course of action for the week will be to the downside. Nonetheless, there are enough positive on the chart to say that a drop below 56.54 would require negative fundamental news and a drop below 59.59 would require some new short-term selling interest. The probabilities still favor the bulls but the chart suggests a bit more backing and filling is to be seen before further appreciation occurs.

IBM continued its recovery, having generated the 3rd green weekly close in a row and closing on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 139.54 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, the 139.70 level is pivotal and unless the trade agreement is on again, the possibilities of closing above that level next Friday are low. On an intraweek basis, minor but likely pivotal resistance is found at 141.81. That level should not even be reached, suggesting a rally up to the $140 demilitarized zone will be seen but not much else. Pivotal support is now found at 133.58, especially on a daily closing basis given that the 200-day MA is currently at 133.41. For this week though, probabilities favor the bulls inasmuch as there is an important weekly close resistance level that will be a magnet but closing above or below that level will not occur without some fundamental news regarding the trade agreement coming out. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

LNTH confirmed the new all-time high weekly close that occurred the previous week, having made another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high this past week. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 28.48 is expected to be seen this week. The upside objective using general chart guidelines is the $30 to $31 level and that is now only $1.50-$2.50 away from last week's high. The previous all-time high daily and weekly closes, both at 26.07, is now considered support that if broken would give a failure signal. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .93.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.73 (new price (57.29).

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 43.835. (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 58.30. Stock closed on Friday at 62.91.

4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.63.

5) LNTH - Averaged long at 24.34 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 23.18. Stock closed on Friday at 27.85.

6) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0567.

7) AAPL - Averaged short at 190.71 (2 mentions). stop loss at 193.47. Stock closed on Friday at 198.78.

8) IBM - Averaged short at 136.08 (2 mentions) Stop loss at 137.35. Stock closed on Friday at 139.20.

9) CVS - Purchased at 55.60. No stop at present. Stock closed on Friday at 53.65.

10) CPG - Averaged long at 3.28 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 2.66. Stock closed on Friday at 3.32.

11) ARNA - Averaged long at 46.62 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 52.20. Stock closed on Friday at 57.29.

12) COF - Shorted at 91.63. Averaged short at 91.246 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 94.48. Stock closed on Friday at 91.52.

13) CLB - Purchased at 47.79. Averaged long at 48.345 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 46.22. Stock closed on Friday at 55.00.

14) CRON - Averaged long at 14.065 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 13.41. Stock closed on Friday at 15.94.

15) BABA - Shorted at 170.19. Stop loss at 174.75. Stock closed on Friday at 167.55.

16) FSLR - Liquidated at 63.00. Averaged long at 54.21. Profit on the trade of $1758 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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