Issue #617
Jun 16, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Trade Talks Stalled. Indexes Remain Under Pressure!

DOW Friday closing price - 26089
SPX Friday closing price - 2886
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7796

All indexes saw follow through to the upside off of last week's strong positive reversal week, both on an intraweek basis as well as on a weekly closing basis, the follow through was small (not impressive) and the indexes closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that the bounce seen was just a 1-2 week event. None of the economic reports last week were additionally helpful to the bulls, suggesting that resumption of the bounce is doubtful unless the Fed decides to cut interest rates this week and even then, those cuts may already be factored in to the price.

The NASDAQ did generate a weekly gap between 7767 and 7773 that should have generated more buying if the previous weeks impressive turn around rally had a basis on a positive fundamental change but with the index closing at 7796 and only 23 points from the low of the week and only 29 points from the gap, the probabilities favor the gap being closed this week, which in turn would be seen as a negative to the rally. In addition, if the index manages to open the week at least 29 points lower on Monday, the possibility of an island formation having been created would exist and such a formation if confirmed, would suggest resumption of the downtrend seen 3 weeks ago would be a high probability.

The DOW did get up this past week to a level of proven intraweek resistance between 26241 and 26277 with a high at 26248 and that level stopped the index in November, followed by a drop down to 21712 and in February followed with a drop down to 25208, meaning that as a chart resistance level it is not only viable but decent. Such a resistance area requires positive fundamental news in order to be broken.

Nonetheless, this coming week does have such a fundamental report scheduled given that on Wednesday at 2:00 pm the Fed will announce their monthly interest rate decision and though there is only a 4% chance of them cutting interest rates this month, the outlook for July is already at 80% and a rate cut this year is now at 100% and 2-3 cuts this year is at 70%. Cutting rates in June only has a 4% probability as it is likely the Fed wants to see more signs that the economy is slowing down as well as see what the June 28/29 G-20 meeting between Xi and Trump accomplishes. Nonetheless, it is 100% expected the Fed will affirm a dovish attitude in the statements that come out of this week's meeting. How this scenario affects the market from here on in is a bit of a mystery but the reality is that this outlook has now been in place for the last 2 months, meaning it will not come as a surprise.

On a chart basis and with the scenario of a rate cut this year already being 100%, it does suggest that most of this outlook has been factored in already, meaning that if it does not happen it would be a strong negative and if it does happen it is not likely to help the bulls all that much, unless the interest rate scenario for more than just a couple of rate cuts grows to more than that. It is not likely that anything will be said on Wednesday that will clarify the picture so unless there is a surprise and the Fed cuts this month, it is unlikely that the bulls will be able to make any new gains at this time. This does suggest that the index market has a higher probability of heading lower until next month's reports (ISM and Jobs as well as the next FOMC rate decision) than higher due to the 6-8% appreciation in price seen the past 2 weeks.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows decent resistance at 26277 and the nothing until 26616, The SPX shows minor to decent resistance 2916 and decent at 2940. The NASDAQ shows minor to decent resistance at 7933 and then decent at 8107.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 25372 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 25427. Below that level, there is decent support now at 25208 that if broken would open the door for a lot more. The SPX shows minor to decent support at 2800 and then on a daily closing basis at 2774, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. The NASDAQ shows minor to decent support between 7600 and 7627 and then nothing until 7400.

There are no other economic reports of consequence, other than the Fed rate decision, scheduled for this week. If there is no surprise with the rate decision, it must be mentioned that there is no support of consequence anywhere nearby, suggesting that it will be a lot easier (less obstacles) for the traders to short the market than purchase the market. This would suggest that the action for the first 2 days of the week will be indecisive and with a slight bias to the downside and then after the Fed announcement on Wednesday the bears having a clear edge. This is especially clear when considering that the bears have proven resistance levels nearby that they can sell with confidence of limitation of risk, whereas the bulls have no such luxury.

The question that will likely be answered on the opening on Monday is just how much of an edge the bears may have obtained at the end of the week and the closes in the lower or near the lows of the week on Friday. If the bears can generate a gap down opening in the NASDAQ below 7767 on Monday, it will put the bulls on the defensive. If the gap is closed (high probability) but no confirmed gap down occurs, then the former scenario will be in place. Either way, it is likely the bears will have some kind of an edge this week. One level to watch in the NASDAQ is the 200 60-minute MA which is currently at 7731. If that line gets a confirmed break, the bears will gain a clear edge.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions for this week given that there is a fundamental report this week (the FOMC rate decision) that could be a catalyst for either side. The probabilities do not favor it being a catalyst for either side but the risk of taking on new positions prior to the report does not make good trading sense.

Nonetheless, I will be adding positions this week on a presently held stock that is not likely to be affected by the rate decision and the risk/reward ratio on the stock is excellent, as well as the probability rating being good.

CLB Friday Closing Price - 47.99.

Purchases of CLB below 47.92 and using a 46.22 stop loss and having a minimum objective of 58.84 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 5-1. Nonetheless, the possible and maybe even probable objective is likely to be 72.65, which would make the risk/reward ratio 14-1.

My rating on the trade is 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL made a new 5-week high but got near a level of resistance from March at 197.60 (got up to 196.79) where selling appeared. In addition, there was news that AAPL was one of the biggest Tech industry losers due to the trade war with China and the stock sold off to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that it is now possible that last week's high will be the high of the rally, especially if that is the case with the indexes. The stock did get down on Friday to the 200-day MA, currently at 189.89, and bounced to close near the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside. Nonetheless, if the bears can generate a confirmed close below that line this coming week, there is no support on the daily chart until 182.45 is reached and none on the weekly chart until 180.73 is reached. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at last week's high at 196.69. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls at the beginning of the week but the bears at the end of the week.

ARNA generated an uneventful inside week but did close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 54,72 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock is far away from any pivotal level of consequence, suggesting that it is proceeding higher but in a backing and filling way. The closest level of pivotal support on the daily closing chart is at 53.01 and on the weekly closing chart it is at 54.32, meaning that as long as those levels are not broken, the bulls maintain their edge. There is minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance at 59.31 from September 2009 that got just a little bit stronger with the previous week's high at 59.13 and last week's high at 58.88 but given that the bears did not accomplish anything last week, the probabilities still favor it being broken. There is stronger and more recent resistance (Jan2015) at 62.80. On a weekly closing basis, there is no resistance of consequence until 65.10 is reached. This does suggest that the bulls are still in control and that the intraweek resistance levels will not pose as much resistance as the weekly close resistance levels, suggesting the $65 level is the next objective before any correction of consequence is seen. Based on the recent action and the new breakout, the 52.30 intraweek low has become decent and pivotal resistance, meaning the stop loss can now be raised to 52.20. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CCJ generated an uneventful inside week but did close green on Friday, keeping the recovery alive. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.51 will be seen this week. The stock now shows a successful retest of the recent 9-month low at 9.91 with the previous week's low at 10.03 and a several green closes above that level since, meaning that the bulls are presently in short-term control. The recent high at 10.63 has become pivotal as a break above that level will not only confirm the successful retest of the low on the daily chart but give the bulls new chart ammunition. It has now been 5 weeks since the bears took the stock down to the $10 level but the demilitarized zone has stood firm, suggesting that without a negative fundamental news that the bulls are ready to take back some control. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CLB generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 2-week high but then reversing to close in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 47.93 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock had lost 39% of value over a period of 8 weeks and had made a new 10-year low, meaning that without a change of fundamentals, a successful retest of the recent low at 46.32 has to occur before any reliable buying is seen. This does suggest that any drop below last week's low at 47.93 should be bought this week, using a stop loss at 46.22, given that oil now shows a double bottom on the daily chart at 50.60/50.73 and the probabilities now favor oil rallying from here. If the stock does go below last week's low, last week's high at 51.61 will become pivotal resistance that if broken would suggest a fast rally to the $57 area. Evidently, a new low below the 10-year low at 46.32 would be seen as a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.

COF made a new 3-week high but the bulls were not able to break any resistance levels and then the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 89.58 and above last week's high at 92.24. As it is, the bulls came within 3 points of breaking a short-term pivotal resistance at 92.27 (got up to 92.24) and that suggests the bears are still in control. Using the weekly closing chart, the stock strongly suggests it is trading in an 85.75 to 90.78 trading range that is unlikely to be broken without new fundamental news or a breakout or breakdown in the index market. With the failure to breakout, it is likely the stock is heading back down to the $86 level until such a time that either the index market breaks out or breaks down. The stock does show a gap between 87.42 and 87.99 and that gap will be a magnet now. Stop loss should now be at 92.37. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

CPG made a new 3-month low and in the process broke the most recent support level at 3.02. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 2.89 is expected to be seen this week. The break of support did weaken the chart for the short term but there is still more important support between 2.70 and 2.74 that needs to be broken for the bears to take control. Given that oil now shows a double bottom on the daily chart, suggesting that a bottom to the downtrend may have been found, it does suggest that the stock may show a low to this recent downtrend this week and begin a recovery. Some support is found at 2.85 that could be the low this week. Indicative and likely short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 3.22 that if broken would suggest the worse is over. Nonetheless, with the break of support at 3.02, the chances of a strong rally occurring soon diminished. There is now decent resistance at 3.56 that is likely to stop any rally for at least 1-2 weeks and the 200-day MA continues to move down (now at 3.96) and that line will now require either oil doing something of consequence (likely a rally back above $60) or another positive fundamental piece of new for the company. After this week and if the stock follows the guidelines mentioned above, the probabilities favor the stock trading between $3 and $3.65 for at least 4-8 weeks. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

CVS generated an uneventful inside week but a green weekly close occurred, suggesting the bulls maintain a short-term edge. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 55.53 than below last week's low at 53.04. By the same token, last week's low and to the upside the recent high at 55.75 seem to both be short-term pivotal points, meaning that there is now a less than $3 trading range where something indicative could happen. There was no new news on the merger with Aetna so that is not presently affecting the stocks. Several rating companies issued a buy rating on the stock, meaning that dips are now likely to find buying interest. Short term pivotal resistance is found at last week's high at 55.75 and mid-term pivotal resistance is found at 57.75. Support is found at 52.04 and at 51.77. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG announced a new and prime military contract last week that caused the stock to rally intraweek 30% in value. Nonetheless, by the end of the week the bulls were only able to show an actual 10% gain. The likely reason for the fall back after the announcement is that the stock got up to the 200-week MA, currently at 1.16 (high last week was 1.18) and that line has not been broken to the upside since May 2017 (25 months) and chart selling came in that the bulls were not able to match. Nonetheless, the stock was able to make a new 8-month high weekly close and generate a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart that was of consequence as the previous 8-month weekly closing high was .88 and from that level the stock made a new 6-year weekly closing low, meaning that breaking that resistance area is indicative. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at .75 is a real possibility. Nonetheless, the positive fundamental news that was released is likely to prevent that from happening because it is a real positive for the company. As such, the probabilities favor an inside week but a green close next Friday. It is important to note that since October 2017, the .91 cent level (on a weekly closing basis) has been indicative resistance, having been an important high on 3 difference occasions. This does suggest that if the bulls can generate another green weekly close next Friday that the bulls have established a positive change in the outlook of the company. The daily closing high last week was .987 so if the bulls are able to generate a daily close any day this week above that level, it will effectively give the bulls new ammunition. The chart clearly shows indicative daily close support at .80 and resistance at .99. Those are the two levels that will be important this week. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FSLR generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 52-week high and then turning around to close red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 59.71 will be seen this week. The stock found resistance at the original breakdown point at 65.04, which was the level of intraweek support that got broken the first week of June of last year and that brought about the 44% haircut down to 36.51 that occurred thereafter. There is now an important intraweek support level at 58.80 that needs to hold up for the bulls to maintain their edge. If broken, the possibilities of a stronger correction occurring will be high, given that the $65 is an important chart level that could signal a short-term top to the rally. The daily chart does show there is a decent to perhaps high probability of the stock getting back up to 63.82 this week and it would be wise to consider taking some profits there. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

IBM, like with COF, generated a green weekly close and a new 3-week high but the bulls failed to break a short-term pivotal resistance at 137.06 (high last week was 136.46) and proceed to drop to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 133.91 than above last week's high. If the stock does go below last week's low, it will make last week's high another successful retest of resistance and give the bears new ammunition to push the stock lower. There is minor intraweek support at 133.58 but if that level is broken there is no support until 130.96. There is still an open gap between 129.09 and 128.56 that will become a magnet if the 133.91 level is broken. To the upside, the 137.06 level remains short-term pivotal. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

LNTH made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 27.12 is likely to be seen this week. The new all-time high does suggest the stock should now have a $30-$31 upside objective before a correction occurs. The previous all-time high daily and weekly closes, both at 26.07, is now considered support that if broken would suggest the new high is bogus. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .90.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.53 (new price (55.32).

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.017. (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 58.30. Stock closed on Friday at 61.24.

4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.32.

5) LNTH - Averaged long at 24.34 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 23.18. Stock closed on Friday at 26.45.

6) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0573.

7) AAPL - Averaged short at 190.71 (2 mentions). stop loss at 193.47. Stock closed on Friday at 192.74.

8) IBM - Averaged short at 136.08 (2 mentions) Stop loss at 137.35. Stock closed on Friday at 135.14.

9) CVS - Purchased at 55.60. No stop at present. Stock closed on Friday at 54.17.

10) CPG - Averaged long at 3.28 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 2.66. Stock closed on Friday at 2.93.

11) ARNA - Averaged long at 46.62 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 52.20. Stock closed on Friday at 55.32.

12) COF - Shorted at 92.19. Averaged short at 91.055 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 92.37. Stock closed on Friday at 90.57.

13) CLB - Purchased at 48.90. Stop loss is at 46.22. Stock closed on Friday at 47.99.

14) CRON - Averaged long at 14.065 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 13.41. Stock closed on Friday at 15.44.

15) AAPL - Shorted at 196.62. Covered shorts at 193.98. Profit on the trade of $264 per 100 shares minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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